David Tepper finally got somebody to take his draft picks. The Carolina Panthers team owner has tried and failed to land big fish such as Matthew Stafford and Deshaun Watson via trade in recent years, only for those quarterbacks to head elsewhere. The organization has instead gone through five starting quarterbacks, three offensive coordinators and two head coaches over the past three seasons before hiring Frank Reich this offseason.
Reich and Tepper will hope the sixth quarterback of the bunch will be the last for a while. Carolina on Friday traded up for the No. 1 overall pick in April's draft, sending the Chicago Bears first- and second-round picks in 2023 (Nos. 9 and 61), a 2024 first-rounder, a 2025 second-rounder and DJ Moore, the star wide receiver Bears general manager Ryan Poles has craved. The Panthers will presumably use the top pick for their quarterback of the future.
I don't have a strong feeling about who won or lost this specific deal. It's a logical move for both sides at a reasonable price. The evidence was strongly in favor of the Bears -- who drafted quarterback Justin Fields in Round 1 two years ago -- trading down. The Panthers desperately needed a solution at quarterback and weren't going to get there with the No. 9 pick. If Carolina had a guy it loved who wasn't going to be on the board at No. 9 and the team thinks he's a franchise quarterback, this was going to be a reasonable deal.
The price is a little more than what we saw the last time a team moved up to No. 1, when the Rams sent two first-round picks, a second-round pick and three third-rounders to the Titans for the No. 1 pick and two later selections. The Rams moved up from No. 15 as opposed to the Panthers jumping from No. 9, but teams are more conscious of the value created by quarterbacks on rookie deals now than they were five years ago.
What I can say more confidently, though, is that there are winners and losers as a result of the reverberations of this deal. Let's hit how this deal shakes out among the NFL teams and players:
Winner: Justin Fields
The most obvious winner is the guy who has spent the past two seasons toiling as Chicago's starting quarterback. There was a reasonable chance Fields, who was drafted by the now-deposed Ryan Pace regime in Chicago, was going to be traded this offseason to open up an opportunity for Poles to take a quarterback at No. 1
Playing behind a patchwork offensive line and with inconsistent receiver play in two different offenses over his first two seasons, Fields has needed to create opportunities for himself as a runner and play-extender. It would have been a shame to see him shipped off to another rebuilding team just as the Bears begin building infrastructure around him.
Now, with the pick shipped off to Carolina, Poles clearly has made up his mind. Fields is going to be the man in Chicago in 2023, if not longer. Even better, he just landed a No. 1 receiver. Moore has been incredible given inconsistent quarterback play in Carolina; he ranks 14th in the league among wideouts in yards per route run over the past four seasons, despite attempting to catch targets from Kyle Allen, Sam Darnold and PJ Walker over that stretch. Fields is a work in progress, but he's still the most exciting quarterback Moore has played with as a pro.
Now, for the moment, the Bears look like they have an interesting group of playmakers around Fields. Darnell Mooney has also been an underrated receiver after you account for his quarterback play over the past three seasons, and he's now the No. 2 option. Chase Claypool, acquired for the 32nd pick in the draft from the Steelers, now moves back into the No. 3 role he occupied in Pittsburgh. Tight end Cole Kmet, who scored seven touchdowns over the final 10 games of 2023 after not scoring any over his prior 24 contests, is the fourth option in the passing attack. Fields has gone from being bereft to almost spoiled for choice.
Loser: Darnell Mooney or Chase Claypool
The Bears have plenty of cap space, but can they keep all of these pass-catchers around for the next few years? Moore is under contract for three more years at an average of $17.4 million, which is a relative bargain for a mid-tier No. 1 receiver. The Bears likely will look to extend the 25-year-old's deal after next season.
Everyone else is a free agent before then. Claypool, Kmet and Mooney are all entering the final year of their respective deals, which means they're eligible for extensions this offseason. On a team without Moore, the Bears could have plausibly signed all three of them to new deals. Getting Moore was the right move, but Mooney's market value is probably about $18 million per season, while Claypool is closer to $12 million after two straight disappointing campaigns. Kmet would be in the ballpark of $14 million, right around the deal Dawson Knox signed with the Bills last year.
Poles could spend $60-plus million per season on his top four receivers given that Fields' contract is relatively cheap, but the Bears need to invest in their offensive line and rebuild their defense, and they can roll over whatever cap space they have left now into future seasons.
The Moore acquisition likely means either Claypool or Mooney will leave the organization, either via a trade this offseason or in free agency next year. Mooney has been the more productive player, but Poles signaled his interest in Claypool by trading what ended up as the first pick of the second round to acquire him. I wonder if we'll see the Bears move Mooney to try to get back that second-rounder -- given a thin market for wideouts this offseason -- while drafting a wide receiver to serve as the No. 3.
Loser: The Chase Claypool trade
A deal that looked bad at the time makes less sense now. The Bears were acquiring a half-season of Claypool before potentially needing to extend his contract. The primary argument at the time was that the coaching staff needed to have more offensive playmakers to evaluate Fields, but Claypool had been one of the league's least productive wide receivers on a team with its own young quarterback in Kenny Pickett.
The other argument at the time suggested Chicago needed to add a wide receiver at the trade deadline because there wasn't an exciting crop of wideouts available in free agency or the draft. Well, a lot changes on the way to the market! The Bears ended up landing Moore when they couldn't have expected he would be available. Adam Thielen became the first of what will be several cap casualties to join the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster in free agency. DeAndre Hopkins is on the trade market. Four wideouts could be first- or second-round picks. The market in October isn't the market in March and April.
The Bears will be fine, but this trade doesn't erase that mistake; it would be better to have all these picks from the Carolina deal and the No. 32 selection.
Winner: Frank Reich
We remember Reich's dramatic fall from grace during last season's disaster in Indianapolis, but keep in mind how things went for him during his tenure there. Reich took a job where the long-term starting quarterback was expected to be Andrew Luck. Luck had a career season under Reich and then retired. Reich cycled through seasons with Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and finally Matt Ryan before the organization exploded last fall.
Now, after taking over in Carolina, Reich gets to start his tenure with whichever quarterback he prefers from the 2023 draft. That quarterback is presumably going to be in place for at least three seasons before the Panthers have to make a decision about the passer's future. Reich is probably on a similar timeline. After not knowing which quarterback he was going to start from year to year or even week to week by the end in Indianapolis, being able to start with one guy must be appealing.
Loser: The quarterback chosen No. 1 overall
This is a little harsh. Every player dreams of being drafted No. 1, and that will be an incredible moment in the life of whomever gets selected. Reich is a very good coach. The Panthers have a solid offensive line with a legitimately excellent right tackle in Taylor Moton and last year's No. 6 overall pick in left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, who struggled as a rookie. Ekwonu likely will be fine, though, and there are few things a debuting quarterback needs more than bookend tackles.
Rookie quarterbacks also need receivers, however, and the Panthers suddenly don't have any. With Moore out the door, the top wideout on Carolina's depth chart is ... Laviska Shenault? Terrace Marshall? Shi Smith? It isn't pretty. Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble are competent tight ends, but this is the league's worst receiving corps on paper at the moment, and it isn't particularly close.
Carolina still has the No. 39 overall pick and can use that on a receiver in the draft, which would make sense given its glaring need at the position. With $23 million in cap space, it might also look to make a deal for Hopkins, who grew up 130 miles west of Charlotte. Even if the Panthers add one significant receiver to replace Moore, though, this is an offense that won't be giving its new quarterback much in the way of receiving options.
Loser: Matt Corral
In the NFL, opportunity can knock and pass by before you even get a chance to open the door. The prior regime traded up to draft Corral in the third round of the 2022 draft, valuing the Ole Miss product as something closer to a second-round selection in the process. If Corral had stayed healthy, there's a decent chance he would have filled in for the misfiring Mayfield at some point during the season.
Instead, Corral was sidelined for the season after suffering a Lisfranc injury during the preseason. Matt Rhule, the coach who was willing to trade up to grab him, was fired. And while it looked like Corral was in position to compete for the starting job this season, the move to trade up all but ensures the 24-year-old won't be the quarterback of the future for Carolina. We'll never know whether Corral was going to be the guy, but injuries and fate can be cruel.
Winner: Matt Eberflus
I'm sure the Bears coach would have been happy to draft a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick if there had been someone Eberflus' staff loved, but with the move down, Chicago has a better shot at building a great roster around Fields. Even after the Claypool deal, the Bears now have a first-rounder and two second-rounders in 2023 and two first-rounders in 2024.
Drafting No. 9 puts Eberflus in position to land much-needed defensive help for a front seven that saw Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith traded away last year. Chicago could use the pick on a pass-rusher, such as Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) or Nolan Smith (Georgia). Those second-round picks are spots in which teams can expect to land starters with significant upside, just as Eberflus' Colts did when they landed Shaquille Leonard at No. 36 in the 2018 draft.
If Eberflus wants to continue building his secondary, the Bears should have their pick of a number of cornerbacks at No. 9. It won't be as sexy as drafting a quarterback or the top defensive player in the class (Alabama's Will Anderson Jr.), but Chicago isn't one player away.
Winner: The Cardinals
This is a rare recent win for the Cardinals, and not just because there's suddenly an obvious team with a need for wantaway wide receiver Hopkins. With the Panthers trading up, it seems extremely likely the first two picks in this draft will be quarterbacks. The Colts are also widely expected to draft a quarterback at No. 4, which would mean at least three quarterbacks coming off the board across the first four selections.
Arizona, which owns the No. 3 pick, doesn't need a long-term quarterback with Kyler Murray under contract for years to come, so it is suddenly in great shape. The Cardinals desperately need a pass-rusher, and the chances of Anderson falling to them just grew even higher. If new general manager Monti Ossenfort wants to stay put, he can draft a guy who suits up at a premium position and a position of need who happens to arguably be the best single player in this class. Great.
For all those teams that want one of what has become a big four quarterback group, though, Ossenfort suddenly has become a kingmaker. If you're a team that picks after the Colts but doesn't like Anthony Richardson (Florida) or Will Levis (Kentucky), you have to move up ahead of Indy at No. 4 to make sure you get your guy. The Colts themselves might be compelled to move up to No. 3 just to avoid missing out on the quarterback they want.
Loser: The Colts
The Bears likely were always either staying put and drafting a quarterback or trading down to a team that wanted to grab a signal-caller, but I suppose there always was a chance they could have moved down one spot and grabbed Anderson to fill a hole in their pass rush. If the Cardinals kept their pick, the Colts could have stayed put at No. 4 with only one quarterback off the board, which would have allowed them to take their pick of three different options.
Now, with the Panthers and Texans likely drafting quarterbacks, there's a chance as many as three signal-callers are off the board by the time the Colts are on the clock. It's possible general manager Chris Ballard loves all four of the top-tier options in this class equally, but there's a non-zero chance the guy who would have been the pick for the Colts without a trade isn't actually available when they make their selection.
Winners or Losers: The Seahawks, Raiders, Falcons and Titans
These were probably the four teams in April's draft that felt like they could stay put at their respective draft spots and still have a realistic shot at landing a quarterback. The Seahawks (No. 5), Raiders (No. 7), Falcons (No. 8) and Titans (No. 11) all have some level of quarterback need; Seattle and Tennessee need long-term options, while Atlanta doesn't have much invested in Desmond Ridder and Las Vegas has nothing more than real human being Chase Garbers on its depth chart.
If any of those teams truly wanted to draft a quarterback, this deal is bad news. There's a reasonable chance the Cardinals trade down and that the top four picks in this draft end up being quarterbacks. Seattle signed Geno Smith to a three-year extension this week, but it was really a one-year deal with no fully guaranteed money after the 2023 season. It wouldn't have been a surprise to see the Seahawks target Levis or Richardson at No. 5.
On the other hand, if those teams didn't want a quarterback, this is great news! The Seahawks also need pass-rush help, so if they wanted Anderson all along, their chances of landing him just improved. Likewise, if the Raiders plan on signing Jimmy Garoppolo and using their pick to address one of the many holes on their defense, this deal is a win for them.
Winner: Lamar Jackson
The Panthers might have been in the running for Jackson if they weren't able to make this deal, but taking one team off the list also has the impact of reducing one of the key options available to teams that were hoping to draft a quarterback. The Ravens placed the nonexclusive franchise tag on Jackson, which means a team could give him a long-term deal and send two first-round picks to Baltimore in return. The Panthers probably weren't in position to draft a passer at No. 9. Now, by trading up, they're placing more pressure on the teams that won't be able to land a quarterback in the draft to make their move.
By my count, if we leave the Panthers and their quarterback out of the running, we're left with three rookie quarterbacks, two starting-caliber options in free agency -- Jacoby Brissett and Garoppolo -- and two players available via trade -- Jackson and Aaron Rodgers. Another spot might come open -- or a team might have a weird itch to scratch and think it wants to start Wentz or Darnold in 2023 -- but there are seven players who are realistic, viable starting options for teams that care about winning next year.
Those players have to fill eight jobs. The Buccaneers, Colts, Commanders, Falcons, Jets, Raiders, Ravens and Texans all have opportunities they'll want to fill in 2023. There's a chance the Falcons stick with Ridder or the Commanders move forward with Sam Howell, but there's also a universe in which Brissett signs somewhere to serve as the bridge starter ahead of one of the first-round picks, either in Carolina or elsewhere. In that scenario, there are only five or six quarterbacks available for seven or eight opportunities.
The teams drafting outside of the top four picks might also find themselves wondering about whether they should do something after the draft, when they'll no longer be forced to trade away a 2023 first-rounder to acquire Jackson. If the Falcons were to take a defensive player at No. 8 and Jackson remained unsigned, they could sign Jackson to an offer sheet the day after the draft and run the risk of losing only their 2024 and 2025 first-round picks as opposed to their 2023 selection. The Ravens could match, of course, but if a team drafting in the top 10 thinks it will be better in 2023 than it was in 2022, it might like the math of trading future picks more than it does the present selections.