NFL trade grades: 2022 deadline deal report cards

With the NFL trade deadline having come and gone, let's grade some trades, including the Denver Broncos trading edge rusher Bradley Chubb to the Miami Dolphins on Tuesday for picks and running back Chase Edmonds.

I'm a big believer in judging decisions based on information available at the time. Saying, "Let's see how it plays out" isn't an option for general managers making deals for their teams, so why should it be for us evaluating those transactions? When I'm grading trades, I evaluate them for each team based on on-field impact, cap implications, draft compensation and effects within the context of a team's overall short- and long-term outlook. I like to think about decisions on two axes:

• How confident are we in knowing if this is a good or bad decision?

• How big is the impact of this decision?

They'll both play a role in the grades, though a low-impact decision can still receive a strong or poor mark. Low-stakes, clear-cut wins or losses still matter. Let's get into the 19 deals made since the season started.

Jump to a big name:
Anderson | McCaffrey | Robinson
Quinn | Toney | R. Smith
Hockenson | Claypool | Chubb

Falcons trade S Marlowe to Bills

Buffalo Bills get: S Dean Marlowe
Atlanta Falcons get: 2023 seventh-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Bills: B

Jordan Poyer is banged up with an elbow injury suffered in the Bills' win over the Green Bay Packers, and Micah Hyde is already out for the year, so depth at safety is useful for Buffalo.

Marlowe played for the Bills from 2018-2020, including four starts his final year in Buffalo, so he should be familiar with Sean McDermott's defense.

Grade for the Falcons: B

Marlowe played 100% of defensive snaps in the Falcons' Week 8 win over the Carolina Panthers with Jaylinn Hawkins out with a concussion. But Marlowe has mostly been a special teamer for Atlanta this season, so getting a seventh-round pick for him seems reasonable.

Chiefs trade CB Fenton to Falcons

Atlanta Falcons get: CB Rashad Fenton
Kansas City Chiefs get: 2023 conditional seventh-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Falcons: B

Atlanta finds itself surprisingly in first place in the woebegone NFC South and needs some corner depth. Casey Hayward is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, while A.J. Terrell is banged up with a hamstring injury and missed Atlanta's win over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.

So bringing in Fenton for next-to-nothing makes sense. Fenton played more than 90% of defensive snaps in weeks 2-5 before his own hamstring issues. His numbers aren't great: 1.5 yards per coverage snap allowed (higher than average) along with a plus-8% completion percentage over expectation allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

But Fenton is a reasonably experienced corner with 16 career starts, so it seems fine to bring him in to shore up the position while Atlanta remains in the hunt.

Grade for the Chiefs: B

With Fenton injured, rookies Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams stepped up their playing time. Plus, rookie first-rounder Trent McDuffie was activated off IR Tuesday. McDuffie had been out since Week 1.

Watson outperformed Fenton in terms of yards per coverage snap (1.2 to Fenton's 1.5) this season, though Williams was farther behind at 1.6. Evidently, Kansas City felt like it could get by as well or better with the rookies alongside L'Jarius Sneed going forward.

Fenton cost $2.5 million in salary this season, so the Chiefs will save roughly half that by dealing him now.

Colts trade RB Hines to Bills for RB Moss, pick

Buffalo Bills get: RB Nyheim Hines
Indianapolis Colts get: RB Zack Moss, conditional sixth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Bills: B

The Bills finally got their long-lost receiving back. This is a much better way to go about it than spending a second-round pick on James Cook after losing out on J.D. McKissic in free agency, but what's done is done, and we're evaluating only the Hines move here.

Hines, 25, is a receiving back but not elite at it. Over the last three years, Hines' YAC Score is just a 47 -- meaning he falls just shy of YAC expectations on average given the situation at the time of reception -- though he has good hands, with a 76 Catch Score in that span.

The Bills are looking for a back that simply won't be a weakness in their vaunted passing game, so Hines fits the bill (though Devin Singletary has the second-highest RTM Overall Score among running backs in 2022, though that's a small sample and conflicts with his performance last year).

The Bills will pay roughly half of the $3.6 million in salary and roster bonuses on Hines' 2022 deal. In 2023, Hines is scheduled to make $4.8 million in salary and roster bonuses, of which $1.7 million is guaranteed.

Grade for the Colts: B

The 3-4-1 Colts are shifting gears after starting Sam Ehlinger at quarterback last week over Matt Ryan. Given that look toward the future, it's perfectly reasonable to deal Hines for a late-round pick. Like with many other deals this week, Hines offers more to the Bills than he does to the Colts right now.

Moss fell out of favor in Buffalo, but there's no real downside to taking him and seeing how he fares as a backup behind Jonathan Taylor. Moss has recorded 17 rush yards over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, but was at minus-61 yards last season.

Commanders trade CB Jackson to Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers get: CB William Jackson III, 2025 seventh-round pick
Washington Commanders get: 2024 sixth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Steelers: B-

It was known prior to the deadline that the Commanders would release Jackson if they couldn't find a trade partner. That doesn't mean trading for him is necessarily a mistake, though. If the Commanders had released him and the Steelers wanted him, there was no guarantee they would land him. That being said, I'm not sure it makes sense for a 2-6 Steelers team to trade for a player who is clearly going to have to be cut after this season.

Jackson will cost the Steelers roughly half of the $5.75 million remaining in salary and per-game roster bonuses on his contract. He has also missed time recently due to a bulging disc in his back. But his coverage numbers aren't bad. He's allowing 1.4 yards per coverage snap in a small sample this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats (average for a corner is 1.2), and he averaged 1.1 yards against per coverage snap last year.

Jackson's non-guaranteed $12.75 million salary plus roster and workout bonuses due in 2023 means he'll almost certainly be cut after this season, unless the Steelers work out a new deal with him.

Grade for the Commanders: B

As noted above, Jackson's coverage numbers were not necessarily bad. But if the team felt, as ESPN's John Keim noted, that he wasn't a fit in its defense, then this was certainly the preferable way to let him go. The trade not only saves some money against the cap but also returns the Commanders very light draft compensation.

Jackson's three-year free agent contract in 2021 that included $26 million in guarantees will go down as a miss for Washington.

Jets trade DE Jacob Martin to Broncos

Denver Broncos get: DE Jacob Martin, 2024 fifth-round pick
New York Jets get: 2024 fourth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Jets: B

Martin is a solid player who recorded pass rush win rates of 18% and 20% at edge this season and in 2020, respectively. Those numbers are slightly above average for the position. But he was getting crowded out and having his playing time diminished in a deep group of Jets outside pass-rushers that includes Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers, Bryce Huff and first-round pick Jermaine Johnson. Given that, it's understandable that the Jets decided to deal him for what, according to our draft pick value calculator, is the equivalent to a sixth-round selection.

At first glance it looks like a slightly bitter pill to swallow from a cap perspective because the Jets guaranteed $6 million on Martin's three-year deal signed this offseason. But that's a sunk cost, and actually $1 million of that was in guaranteed 2023 salary that the Broncos will now have to pay.

Grade for the Broncos: B-

Denver should be thinking in 2023-and-beyond mode. On one hand, Martin is a nice addition for a team that just lost Bradley Chubb and maybe could use a little more outside pass-rush depth. But on the other, Denver surrendered a little draft capital to pay Martin a $5 million salary and roster bonus next season or take a $1 million cap hit if they decide to cut him.

It's small potatoes, but I'm not sure it was worth it.

Falcons trade WR Calvin Ridley to Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars get: WR Calvin Ridley
Atlanta Falcons get: 2023 fifth-round pick, 2024 conditional fourth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Jaguars: A

In Ridley's last full season, 2020, he was one of the best players in the NFL. He recorded 2.5 yards per route run, ninth-best among players with at least 250 routes. He posted an 81 Overall Score in our Receiving Tracking Metrics -- sixth-best -- that included a 90 Open Score.

In 2021, his production was down when he played -- he brought in 281 yards in five games before stepping away from football to address his mental health, saying he needed to get his personal life in order. Ridley was later suspended for at least the 2022 season for betting on games and must apply for reinstatement, which can happen on Feb. 15, 2023, at the earliest.

Those factors make this deal complicated and are why the price is as low as it is.

To me, it's a chance well worth taking. After quarterback, wide receiver is the second-most important position. That's why the Dolphins dealt five picks, including a first and second-rounder, for Tyreek Hill and the Raiders traded first- and second-round picks for Davante Adams.

Ridley comes much, much cheaper, but carries three levels of risk:

• There is no guarantee of reinstatement in February.

• The factors around Ridley stepping away from football in 2021 to address his mental health are, at least to outsiders, unknown. It's fair to wonder if they will affect his availability going forward.

• He will have gone at least a year-and-a-half without playing football.

But here's why this deal is more than acceptable for the Jaguars -- the risk is built in via the conditions on the 2024 conditional pick. If it ends up becoming a second-rounder, that will mean things will have gone well, and the risks will have been minimized. In that case, a second and fifth for a player who still has his fifth-year option left (and presumably plays well on it, hence the extension) is well worth it. On the flip side, the downside is minimal in comparison to how great the upside will be for Jacksonville.

Grade for the Falcons: B-

This trade is more difficult to evaluate from the Falcons side of things. In a vacuum they probably would want to keep Ridley -- he's a high-end receiver with his fifth-year option left and could help in 2023.

But this is not a vacuum, and it's quite possible all involved needed a fresh start. Ridley had already stepped away from the Falcons to address his mental health, and other teams inquired into his availability prior to the news of his suspension coming out.

But would the Falcons have been better off waiting until the new league year (by which point Ridley might already be reinstated) to trade him? It's hard to know. But the fact the compensation struck me as light and that the impending free agent wide receiver class is weak has me wondering if they could have gotten more if they waited.

49ers trade RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to Dolphins

Miami Dolphins get: RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
San Francisco 49ers get: 2023 fifth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Dolphins: B+

Going from Chase Edmonds to Wilson is a pretty remarkable running back upgrade in the span of a day: Edmonds has the worst rush yards over expectation (minus-100) of any player in the NFL this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, while Wilson has recorded plus-119 with the 49ers. Edmonds had lost the starting job to Raheem Mostert but he, too, has recorded rush yards below expectation (minus-33) this season.

McDaniel is a former Kyle Shanahan assistant, so it feels safe to assume Wilson should be able to hit the ground running, literally, in the Miami offense.

They could use the help on the ground: The Dolphins rank 26th in EPA per designed carry.

Wilson is a free agent after this season and is currently on a cheap $1 million contract.

Grade for the 49ers: B

One of the biggest reasons why I criticized the 49ers' trade for Christian McCaffrey is that Shanahan continuously is able to find low-cost running backs that end up not only beating out their higher-priced teammates, but are effective. So getting a fifth-round pick for a player that is now a backup running back makes sense.

If Elijah Mitchell weren't on his way back from injury, a move like this would leave the 49ers even more leveraged on McCaffrey's health than they already are. But Mitchell, who was expected to be out for two months after spraining his MCL in September, should return to action soon. So it makes sense to turn Wilson, in a contract year, into a draft pick.

Broncos trade OLB Chubb to Dolphins

Miami Dolphins get: OLB Bradley Chubb
Denver Broncos get: 49ers 2023 first-round pick, Dolphins 2024 fourth-round pick, RB Chase Edmonds
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Dolphins: B+

If you're going to spend a first-round pick for a non-QB you're going to need to pay well, it had better be for a star at a premium position. In Chubb, the Dolphins got that.

For most of his career, Chubb's metrics indicated he wasn't quite worth the hype. He put up 12 sacks as a rookie in 2018 -- he hasn't hit double digits since -- and posted win rates mostly in the teens at edge. Good, but not great.

But Chubb's play has been different this season. His pass rush win rate at edge ranks third in the NFL behind only Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett, and Chubb has 5.5 sacks in eight games. His run stop win rate at edge (30%) is also a career high, putting him 12th in the category at the position.

In short, he's an elite player to help Miami make a run. And the Dolphins are capable of that, even in the same conference as the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.

When quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been on the field, the Dolphins are averaging 0.16 expected points added per play on offense. That ranks second, behind only Kansas City.

A healthy Tagovailoa and an improved defense could vault the 5-3 Dolphins to another level going forward. Miami ranks eighth in pass rush win rate as a team thanks to linebacker Jaelan Phillips' breakout this season. Now, Phillips and Chubb will make a fierce combination.

Chubb is already playing on his fifth-year option. After this deal, he'll have plenty of leverage over the Dolphins, knowing they'll want to lock him up, considering the price they paid to acquire him. But Miami will have the franchise tag at its disposal, too. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Dolphins are expected to work out a long-term deal with Chubb.

Grade for the Broncos: B

Credit the Broncos for at least knowing who they are: non-contenders. And, as we've written about with other deals, their current value of having Chubb -- his play and the cost to pay him -- is less useful to the Broncos for the second half of 2022 than it is to the Dolphins. And it's that asymmetry which is why a deal like this makes sense for both sides.

The pick the Broncos are getting back is expected to be a late first because it is the 49ers' selection. Still, considering the Broncos aren't contending now, this is a worthwhile move.

Current injuries aside, the Broncos still have Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Nik Bonitto as outside pass-rushers.

As for Edmonds, he has the worst rush yards over expectation total (minus-100) of any player in the NFL this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He offers, at best, no value to the Broncos in this deal.

Steelers trade WR Claypool to Bears

Chicago Bears get: WR Chase Claypool
Pittsburgh Steelers get: Bears' 2023 second-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Bears: D+

All the reasons the Bears were better off dealing Roquan Smith than keeping him make this decision puzzling. It's not the exact same scenario -- Claypool has another cheap year on his rookie deal after this -- but part of his value was what he could offer in the second half of 2022, which doesn't matter to a rebuilding Chicago. Or it shouldn't.

Claypool is an OK receiver. He ranks 76th out of 102 wide receivers with at least 100 routes in yards per route run this season, but he's done that with poor quarterback play. In our Receiver Tracking Metrics Claypool has an Overall Score of 63, which ranks 24th among wide receivers and tight ends. That's a massive upgrade from last season, when he recorded just a 39 Overall Score, 89th out of 109 qualifiers.

So why did Chicago make this trade? My guess is their rationale is twofold:

1. They are trying to evaluate Justin Fields before making a critical decision at quarterback this offseason, and adding another receiver alongside Darnell Mooney could help that process.

2. The upcoming free agent class is weak at WR.

3. Claypool has another cheap year on his contract in 2023.

But none of those are particularly compelling reasons to trade for a non-exceptional wide receiver now.

Perhaps Chicago having two second-round picks after dealing Smith yesterday was a consideration, but that absolutely should not have been a major factor. Just because a team has an extra asset doesn't make that asset any more expendable. Simply making a selection or using that pick to acquire a quarterback are much more efficient uses than dealing it midseason in a non-contending year.

That this was the Bears' own second-rounder, and not the Ravens', makes this deal even worse. ESPN's Football Power Index forecasts the Bears to have, on average, the eighth pick in the draft and a 33% chance at a top-5 pick in the first round. The Ravens' second-rounder projects to be lower.

Grade for the Steelers: A-

More than anything, this is just strong compensation. An early second-round pick for Claypool in a year when the Steelers aren't contending is too good a price to pass up.

With another cheap year left on his contract, the Steelers did not have to deal him. It does reduce their receiver depth, though they still have a legitimate No. 1 in Diontae Johnson and big-time upside in rookie George Pickens -- not bad at all.

Pittsburgh does seem to have a knack for finding good receivers in the draft, though I wonder if that's just luck and not something that should be banked on.

But again, the downside here is easily worth the payoff: An early second-round pick for a team in the midst of its own retooling is a much more valuable commodity than a year-and-a-half of Claypool.

Lions trade TE Hockenson to Vikings

Minnesota Vikings get: TE T.J. Hockenson, 2023 fourth-round pick, 2024 conditional fourth-round pick
Detroit Lions get: 2023 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Vikings: B+

Evidently, the Vikings believe that they are contenders. At 6-1, there's still some question about the legitimacy about how strong they are, but it also might not matter. Given their record and the relative weakness of the NFC, the Vikings had the seventh-best chance (2.4%) to win the Super Bowl before this trade, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), even with the model considering them only the 14th-best team.

Hockenson is a solid tight end who has flashed something more -- though he hasn't reached the heights one might have imagined after catching 67 passes for 723 yards in 2020. He hauled in 583 receiving yards in 12 games last season and has 395 in 2022.

Our Receiver Tracking Metrics actually liked Hockenson's 2021 a decent bit: His 65 Overall Score was tied for fifth among tight ends and buoyed by a 73 Catch Score -- tied for best among tight ends. In 2022 that Overall Score has dropped to 58, though he remains fifth among tight ends. He certainly could still ascend, as tight ends tend to develop slowly.

In acquiring Hockenson, the Vikings land a solid third receiving option behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, which is particularly useful with Irv Smith Jr. suffering a high ankle sprain in Sunday's win over the Cardinals -- an injury expected to sideline him 8-10 weeks, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The Vikings rank 15th in EPA/dropback, so focusing on the passing game is ideal from a team-building standpoint.

Hockenson will be cheap this year for Minnesota then will cost a guaranteed $9.4 million against the cap next season on the fifth-year option.

Grade for the Lions: B

The Lions know they aren't contenders, and while Hockenson is a young player who could help them in the future, they also were about to start paying him. It wasn't a deal they had to make, but gaining draft capital for a rebuilding team is never a bad thing, especially since the Lions will likely be the in QB market but also because cost-controlled young players are often the key to building a championship roster.

Some will scoff at trading a player within the division, but that criticism is be unfounded. Detroit is dealing Hockenson at a time when how good the Vikings are is irrelevant to the Lions' future championship chance. In exchange, they will draft players who will play against the Vikings for years.

In the long term, the Lions still have a solid pass-catching foundation with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who was selected after a draft-day trade with the Vikings in April.

Bears trade LB Smith to Ravens

Baltimore Ravens get: LB Roquan Smith
Chicago Bears get: LB A.J. Klein, 2023 second-round pick, 2023 fifth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 31

Grade for the Ravens: B

In the messy world of the 2022 season, the 5-3 Ravens are real contenders. They rank sixth in ESPN's Football Power Index and had the seventh-best chance to win the Super Bowl prior to this trade. They've played the third-hardest strength of schedule and have the 22nd-most difficult schedule remaining. So it makes sense for Baltimore to try to improve.

In trading for Smith, Baltimore is attempting to shore up a defense that ranks 21st in EPA per play, lagging well behind the Ravens' sixth-ranked offense.

Smith comes with the credentials of a player who should help. He has been a second-team All-Pro in each of the past two seasons and is generally well-regarded. The advanced metrics aren't quite as solid, though:

• Smith currently ranks 16th in run stop win rate among linebackers, which would be the highest rank of his career.

• Smith is allowing 0.9 yards per coverage snap as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That is roughly average for a linebacker and matches his number from last season. His 2020 coverage numbers were elite -- he allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap and minus-36 EPA.

• Smith has 2.5 sacks this season and has 16.5 in his five-year career. His 14% pass rush win rate is mediocre and is in line with what he posted last year. He has a 20% pass rush win rate for his career.

That being said, linebacker is one of the toughest positions to quantify with our current tools, so I place some weight on the All-Pro nods. The other downside is that Smith plays off-ball linebacker, a nonpremium position.

Smith is currently playing on his fifth-year option, and Baltimore will have a decision to make. The Ravens could ink Smith to a long-term deal, which would keep a major player on their roster but essentially mean that they traded for the right to pay him market price. Alternatively, they could let him walk and, depending on how they manage the rest of free agency, could recoup a midround compensatory pick (a year later) for him -- and no one works the compensatory pick system quite like the Ravens. If they do that, that makes the terms to acquire Smith feel quite reasonable, especially considering Chicago picked up almost all of his remaining 2022 salary.

The Ravens could also franchise-tag Smith and push the decision until after 2023, though they'd presumably like to keep that option available for quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Ultimately, Baltimore's desire to upgrade makes sense. Though if I'm the Ravens, I'd rather spend draft capital on a midseason upgrade at a premium position such as wide receiver. Rashod Bateman aggravated a foot injury and will be out a few weeks, leaving the Ravens without much else at pass-catcher behind tight end Mark Andrews, who is also banged up. Making this move and adding a receiver are not mutually exclusive, however.

Grade for the Bears: B

The Bears had to trade Robert Quinn. They didn't have to trade Smith, but it was close to that.

Smith could have been franchised and/or signed to a long-term deal after this season, but the Bears are rebuilding, meaning that the value Smith offers over the second half of this season is worth a lot more to a current contender than it is to the Bears. Plus, Smith already requested a trade away from Chicago in August. It was better to cash in now.

It's a smaller factor, but I do think it's interesting and not ideal that the Bears have picked up the salary tab in both the Quinn deal and the Smith trade for the rest of 2022. It can grease the wheels to get things done, but it means sacrificing a normal perk of a teardown. In dealing players you usually rack up draft picks and save cap space to roll into seasons when you are contending.

Still, gaining a second-round pick is useful for a team that is going to need to add young talent to its roster. And for the Bears, a second-round pick now is definitely better than the prospect of a third-round compensatory pick had Smith walked after the season. The pick keeps them flexible for free agency and gives them an additional pick now to get their rebuild going.

Giants trade WR Toney to Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs get: WR Kadarius Toney
New York Giants get: 2023 third-round pick; 2023 sixth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 27

Grade for the Chiefs: B

The defining characteristic of Toney's young NFL career has been lack of availability. He has played in exactly half of the Giants' 24 games since the start of 2021 because of injuries and COVID-19.

This year, Toney injured his hamstring in training camp, then played in the first two games of the season before reinjuring it. He hasn't played since and now believes he returned to action too soon the first time around.

But the other important factor is how efficient Toney was in his rookie season, albeit it in a somewhat limited sample.

Getting 420 receiving yards over 10 games might not sound particularly special, but Toney's limited playing time means he showed serious promise on a per-route basis. Among players with at least 150 routes run in 2021, Toney ranked 17th in yards per route run and 11th in yards per route run vs. man coverage.

His receiver tracking metrics from that first year flashed an ability to get open and generate yards after catch: He recorded a 67/45/64 open score/catch score/YAC score. A 67 open score right now would be well above those of Chiefs receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster (52) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (29), although well below that of tight end Travis Kelce (80).

So Toney possesses promise. I think players traded early in their rookie contracts are interesting because there are countervailing forces at work. The longer they play, the less time remaining on a below-market deal they have left (decreasing their value) but also the more confident teams become in the quality of that player (increasing their value if the player has played well). In this case, though, the injuries complicate the picture, so Toney's forecast remains muddled.

Although the Chiefs' offense has been successful without Tyreek Hill, I think it could still use long-term receiving help. Smith-Schuster is looking like an increasingly successful signing (although 55% of his receiving yards have come via YAC, fourth highest of any WR with at least 150 routes this season), but Valdes-Scantling -- despite putting up a few big-yardage games -- is flashing some warning signs. He has the worst open score in the league and is bottom 10 in YAC score.