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NFL trade grades: 2022 deadline deal report cards

With the NFL trade deadline having come and gone, let's grade some trades, including the Denver Broncos trading edge rusher Bradley Chubb to the Miami Dolphins on Tuesday for picks and running back Chase Edmonds.

I'm a big believer in judging decisions based on information available at the time. Saying, "Let's see how it plays out" isn't an option for general managers making deals for their teams, so why should it be for us evaluating those transactions? When I'm grading trades, I evaluate them for each team based on on-field impact, cap implications, draft compensation and effects within the context of a team's overall short- and long-term outlook. I like to think about decisions on two axes:

  • How confident are we in knowing if this is a good or bad decision?

  • How big is the impact of this decision?

They'll both play a role in the grades, though a low-impact decision can still receive a strong or poor mark. Low-stakes, clear-cut wins or losses still matter. Let's get into the 19 deals made since the season started.

Jump to a big name:
Anderson | McCaffrey | Robinson
Quinn | Toney | R. Smith
Hockenson | Claypool | Chubb

Falcons trade S Marlowe to Bills

Buffalo Bills get: S Dean Marlowe
Atlanta Falcons get: 2023 seventh-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Bills: B

Jordan Poyer is banged up with an elbow injury suffered in the Bills' win over the Green Bay Packers, and Micah Hyde is already out for the year, so depth at safety is useful for Buffalo.

Marlowe played for the Bills from 2018-2020, including four starts his final year in Buffalo, so he should be familiar with Sean McDermott's defense.

Grade for the Falcons: B

Marlowe played 100% of defensive snaps in the Falcons' Week 8 win over the Carolina Panthers with Jaylinn Hawkins out with a concussion. But Marlowe has mostly been a special teamer for Atlanta this season, so getting a seventh-round pick for him seems reasonable.


Chiefs trade CB Fenton to Falcons

Atlanta Falcons get: CB Rashad Fenton
Kansas City Chiefs get: 2023 conditional seventh-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Falcons: B

Atlanta finds itself surprisingly in first place in the woebegone NFC South and needs some corner depth. Casey Hayward is on injured reserve with a shoulder injury, while A.J. Terrell is banged up with a hamstring injury and missed Atlanta's win over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday.

So bringing in Fenton for next-to-nothing makes sense. Fenton played more than 90% of defensive snaps in weeks 2-5 before his own hamstring issues. His numbers aren't great: 1.5 yards per coverage snap allowed (higher than average) along with a plus-8% completion percentage over expectation allowed, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

But Fenton is a reasonably experienced corner with 16 career starts, so it seems fine to bring him in to shore up the position while Atlanta remains in the hunt.

Grade for the Chiefs: B

With Fenton injured, rookies Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams stepped up their playing time. Plus, rookie first-rounder Trent McDuffie was activated off IR Tuesday. McDuffie had been out since Week 1.

Watson outperformed Fenton in terms of yards per coverage snap (1.2 to Fenton's 1.5) this season, though Williams was farther behind at 1.6. Evidently, Kansas City felt like it could get by as well or better with the rookies alongside L'Jarius Sneed going forward.

Fenton cost $2.5 million in salary this season, so the Chiefs will save roughly half that by dealing him now.


Colts trade RB Hines to Bills for RB Moss, pick

Buffalo Bills get: RB Nyheim Hines
Indianapolis Colts get: RB Zack Moss, conditional sixth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Bills: B

The Bills finally got their long-lost receiving back. This is a much better way to go about it than spending a second-round pick on James Cook after losing out on J.D. McKissic in free agency, but what's done is done, and we're evaluating only the Hines move here.

Hines, 25, is a receiving back but not elite at it. Over the last three years, Hines' YAC Score is just a 47 -- meaning he falls just shy of YAC expectations on average given the situation at the time of reception -- though he has good hands, with a 76 Catch Score in that span.

The Bills are looking for a back that simply won't be a weakness in their vaunted passing game, so Hines fits the bill (though Devin Singletary has the second-highest RTM Overall Score among running backs in 2022, though that's a small sample and conflicts with his performance last year).

The Bills will pay roughly half of the $3.6 million in salary and roster bonuses on Hines' 2022 deal. In 2023, Hines is scheduled to make $4.8 million in salary and roster bonuses, of which $1.7 million is guaranteed.

Grade for the Colts: B

The 3-4-1 Colts are shifting gears after starting Sam Ehlinger at quarterback last week over Matt Ryan. Given that look toward the future, it's perfectly reasonable to deal Hines for a late-round pick. Like with many other deals this week, Hines offers more to the Bills than he does to the Colts right now.

Moss fell out of favor in Buffalo, but there's no real downside to taking him and seeing how he fares as a backup behind Jonathan Taylor. Moss has recorded 17 rush yards over expectation this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, but was at minus-61 yards last season.


Commanders trade CB Jackson to Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers get: CB William Jackson III, 2025 seventh-round pick
Washington Commanders get: 2024 sixth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Steelers: B-

It was known prior to the deadline that the Commanders would release Jackson if they couldn't find a trade partner. That doesn't mean trading for him is necessarily a mistake, though. If the Commanders had released him and the Steelers wanted him, there was no guarantee they would land him. That being said, I'm not sure it makes sense for a 2-6 Steelers team to trade for a player who is clearly going to have to be cut after this season.

Jackson will cost the Steelers roughly half of the $5.75 million remaining in salary and per-game roster bonuses on his contract. He has also missed time recently due to a bulging disc in his back. But his coverage numbers aren't bad. He's allowing 1.4 yards per coverage snap in a small sample this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats (average for a corner is 1.2), and he averaged 1.1 yards against per coverage snap last year.

Jackson's non-guaranteed $12.75 million salary plus roster and workout bonuses due in 2023 means he'll almost certainly be cut after this season, unless the Steelers work out a new deal with him.

Grade for the Commanders: B

As noted above, Jackson's coverage numbers were not necessarily bad. But if the team felt, as ESPN's John Keim noted, that he wasn't a fit in its defense, then this was certainly the preferable way to let him go. The trade not only saves some money against the cap but also returns the Commanders very light draft compensation.

Jackson's three-year free agent contract in 2021 that included $26 million in guarantees will go down as a miss for Washington.


Jets trade DE Jacob Martin to Broncos

Denver Broncos get: DE Jacob Martin, 2024 fifth-round pick
New York Jets get: 2024 fourth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Jets: B

Martin is a solid player who recorded pass rush win rates of 18% and 20% at edge this season and in 2020, respectively. Those numbers are slightly above average for the position. But he was getting crowded out and having his playing time diminished in a deep group of Jets outside pass-rushers that includes Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers, Bryce Huff and first-round pick Jermaine Johnson. Given that, it's understandable that the Jets decided to deal him for what, according to our draft pick value calculator, is the equivalent to a sixth-round selection.

At first glance it looks like a slightly bitter pill to swallow from a cap perspective because the Jets guaranteed $6 million on Martin's three-year deal signed this offseason. But that's a sunk cost, and actually $1 million of that was in guaranteed 2023 salary that the Broncos will now have to pay.

Grade for the Broncos: B-

Denver should be thinking in 2023-and-beyond mode. On one hand, Martin is a nice addition for a team that just lost Bradley Chubb and maybe could use a little more outside pass-rush depth. But on the other, Denver surrendered a little draft capital to pay Martin a $5 million salary and roster bonus next season or take a $1 million cap hit if they decide to cut him.

It's small potatoes, but I'm not sure it was worth it.


Falcons trade WR Calvin Ridley to Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars get: WR Calvin Ridley
Atlanta Falcons get: 2023 fifth-round pick, 2024 conditional fourth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Jaguars: A

In Ridley's last full season, 2020, he was one of the best players in the NFL. He recorded 2.5 yards per route run, ninth-best among players with at least 250 routes. He posted an 81 Overall Score in our Receiving Tracking Metrics -- sixth-best -- that included a 90 Open Score.

In 2021, his production was down when he played -- he brought in 281 yards in five games before stepping away from football to address his mental health, saying he needed to get his personal life in order. Ridley was later suspended for at least the 2022 season for betting on games and must apply for reinstatement, which can happen on Feb. 15, 2023, at the earliest.

Those factors make this deal complicated and are why the price is as low as it is.

To me, it's a chance well worth taking. After quarterback, wide receiver is the second-most important position. That's why the Dolphins dealt five picks, including a first and second-rounder, for Tyreek Hill and the Raiders traded first- and second-round picks for Davante Adams.

Ridley comes much, much cheaper, but carries three levels of risk:

  • There is no guarantee of reinstatement in February.

  • The factors around Ridley stepping away from football in 2021 to address his mental health are, at least to outsiders, unknown. It's fair to wonder if they will affect his availability going forward.

  • He will have gone at least a year-and-a-half without playing football.

But here's why this deal is more than acceptable for the Jaguars -- the risk is built in via the conditions on the 2024 conditional pick. If it ends up becoming a second-rounder, that will mean things will have gone well, and the risks will have been minimized. In that case, a second and fifth for a player who still has his fifth-year option left (and presumably plays well on it, hence the extension) is well worth it. On the flip side, the downside is minimal in comparison to how great the upside will be for Jacksonville.

Grade for the Falcons: B-

This trade is more difficult to evaluate from the Falcons side of things. In a vacuum they probably would want to keep Ridley -- he's a high-end receiver with his fifth-year option left and could help in 2023.

But this is not a vacuum, and it's quite possible all involved needed a fresh start. Ridley had already stepped away from the Falcons to address his mental health, and other teams inquired into his availability prior to the news of his suspension coming out.

But would the Falcons have been better off waiting until the new league year (by which point Ridley might already be reinstated) to trade him? It's hard to know. But the fact the compensation struck me as light and that the impending free agent wide receiver class is weak has me wondering if they could have gotten more if they waited.


49ers trade RB Jeff Wilson Jr. to Dolphins

Miami Dolphins get: RB Jeff Wilson Jr.
San Francisco 49ers get: 2023 fifth-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Dolphins: B+

Going from Chase Edmonds to Wilson is a pretty remarkable running back upgrade in the span of a day: Edmonds has the worst rush yards over expectation (minus-100) of any player in the NFL this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, while Wilson has recorded plus-119 with the 49ers. Edmonds had lost the starting job to Raheem Mostert but he, too, has recorded rush yards below expectation (minus-33) this season.

McDaniel is a former Kyle Shanahan assistant, so it feels safe to assume Wilson should be able to hit the ground running, literally, in the Miami offense.

They could use the help on the ground: The Dolphins rank 26th in EPA per designed carry.

Wilson is a free agent after this season and is currently on a cheap $1 million contract.

Grade for the 49ers: B

One of the biggest reasons why I criticized the 49ers' trade for Christian McCaffrey is that Shanahan continuously is able to find low-cost running backs that end up not only beating out their higher-priced teammates, but are effective. So getting a fifth-round pick for a player that is now a backup running back makes sense.

If Elijah Mitchell weren't on his way back from injury, a move like this would leave the 49ers even more leveraged on McCaffrey's health than they already are. But Mitchell, who was expected to be out for two months after spraining his MCL in September, should return to action soon. So it makes sense to turn Wilson, in a contract year, into a draft pick.


Broncos trade OLB Chubb to Dolphins

Miami Dolphins get: OLB Bradley Chubb
Denver Broncos get: 49ers 2023 first-round pick, Dolphins 2024 fourth-round pick, RB Chase Edmonds
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Dolphins: B+

If you're going to spend a first-round pick for a non-QB you're going to need to pay well, it had better be for a star at a premium position. In Chubb, the Dolphins got that.

For most of his career, Chubb's metrics indicated he wasn't quite worth the hype. He put up 12 sacks as a rookie in 2018 -- he hasn't hit double digits since -- and posted win rates mostly in the teens at edge. Good, but not great.

But Chubb's play has been different this season. His pass rush win rate at edge ranks third in the NFL behind only Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett, and Chubb has 5.5 sacks in eight games. His run stop win rate at edge (30%) is also a career high, putting him 12th in the category at the position.

In short, he's an elite player to help Miami make a run. And the Dolphins are capable of that, even in the same conference as the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.

When quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been on the field, the Dolphins are averaging 0.16 expected points added per play on offense. That ranks second, behind only Kansas City.

A healthy Tagovailoa and an improved defense could vault the 5-3 Dolphins to another level going forward. Miami ranks eighth in pass rush win rate as a team thanks to linebacker Jaelan Phillips' breakout this season. Now, Phillips and Chubb will make a fierce combination.

Chubb is already playing on his fifth-year option. After this deal, he'll have plenty of leverage over the Dolphins, knowing they'll want to lock him up, considering the price they paid to acquire him. But Miami will have the franchise tag at its disposal, too. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that the Dolphins are expected to work out a long-term deal with Chubb.

Grade for the Broncos: B

Credit the Broncos for at least knowing who they are: non-contenders. And, as we've written about with other deals, their current value of having Chubb -- his play and the cost to pay him -- is less useful to the Broncos for the second half of 2022 than it is to the Dolphins. And it's that asymmetry which is why a deal like this makes sense for both sides.

The pick the Broncos are getting back is expected to be a late first because it is the 49ers' selection. Still, considering the Broncos aren't contending now, this is a worthwhile move.

Current injuries aside, the Broncos still have Randy Gregory, Baron Browning and Nik Bonitto as outside pass-rushers.

As for Edmonds, he has the worst rush yards over expectation total (minus-100) of any player in the NFL this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He offers, at best, no value to the Broncos in this deal.


Steelers trade WR Claypool to Bears

Chicago Bears get: WR Chase Claypool
Pittsburgh Steelers get: Bears' 2023 second-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Bears: D+

All the reasons the Bears were better off dealing Roquan Smith than keeping him make this decision puzzling. It's not the exact same scenario -- Claypool has another cheap year on his rookie deal after this -- but part of his value was what he could offer in the second half of 2022, which doesn't matter to a rebuilding Chicago. Or it shouldn't.

Claypool is an OK receiver. He ranks 76th out of 102 wide receivers with at least 100 routes in yards per route run this season, but he's done that with poor quarterback play. In our Receiver Tracking Metrics Claypool has an Overall Score of 63, which ranks 24th among wide receivers and tight ends. That's a massive upgrade from last season, when he recorded just a 39 Overall Score, 89th out of 109 qualifiers.

So why did Chicago make this trade? My guess is their rationale is twofold:

  1. They are trying to evaluate Justin Fields before making a critical decision at quarterback this offseason, and adding another receiver alongside Darnell Mooney could help that process.

  2. The upcoming free agent class is weak at WR.

  3. Claypool has another cheap year on his contract in 2023.

But none of those are particularly compelling reasons to trade for a non-exceptional wide receiver now.

Perhaps Chicago having two second-round picks after dealing Smith yesterday was a consideration, but that absolutely should not have been a major factor. Just because a team has an extra asset doesn't make that asset any more expendable. Simply making a selection or using that pick to acquire a quarterback are much more efficient uses than dealing it midseason in a non-contending year.

That this was the Bears' own second-rounder, and not the Ravens', makes this deal even worse. ESPN's Football Power Index forecasts the Bears to have, on average, the eighth pick in the draft and a 33% chance at a top-5 pick in the first round. The Ravens' second-rounder projects to be lower.

Grade for the Steelers: A-

More than anything, this is just strong compensation. An early second-round pick for Claypool in a year when the Steelers aren't contending is too good a price to pass up.

With another cheap year left on his contract, the Steelers did not have to deal him. It does reduce their receiver depth, though they still have a legitimate No. 1 in Diontae Johnson and big-time upside in rookie George Pickens -- not bad at all.

Pittsburgh does seem to have a knack for finding good receivers in the draft, though I wonder if that's just luck and not something that should be banked on.

But again, the downside here is easily worth the payoff: An early second-round pick for a team in the midst of its own retooling is a much more valuable commodity than a year-and-a-half of Claypool.


Lions trade TE Hockenson to Vikings

Minnesota Vikings get: TE T.J. Hockenson, 2023 fourth-round pick, 2024 conditional fourth-round pick
Detroit Lions get: 2023 second-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
Trade date: Nov. 1

Grade for the Vikings: B+

Evidently, the Vikings believe that they are contenders. At 6-1, there's still some question about the legitimacy about how strong they are, but it also might not matter. Given their record and the relative weakness of the NFC, the Vikings had the seventh-best chance (2.4%) to win the Super Bowl before this trade, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), even with the model considering them only the 14th-best team.

Hockenson is a solid tight end who has flashed something more -- though he hasn't reached the heights one might have imagined after catching 67 passes for 723 yards in 2020. He hauled in 583 receiving yards in 12 games last season and has 395 in 2022.

Our Receiver Tracking Metrics actually liked Hockenson's 2021 a decent bit: His 65 Overall Score was tied for fifth among tight ends and buoyed by a 73 Catch Score -- tied for best among tight ends. In 2022 that Overall Score has dropped to 58, though he remains fifth among tight ends. He certainly could still ascend, as tight ends tend to develop slowly.

In acquiring Hockenson, the Vikings land a solid third receiving option behind Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, which is particularly useful with Irv Smith Jr. suffering a high ankle sprain in Sunday's win over the Cardinals -- an injury expected to sideline him 8-10 weeks, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The Vikings rank 15th in EPA/dropback, so focusing on the passing game is ideal from a team-building standpoint.

Hockenson will be cheap this year for Minnesota then will cost a guaranteed $9.4 million against the cap next season on the fifth-year option.

Grade for the Lions: B

The Lions know they aren't contenders, and while Hockenson is a young player who could help them in the future, they also were about to start paying him. It wasn't a deal they had to make, but gaining draft capital for a rebuilding team is never a bad thing, especially since the Lions will likely be the in QB market but also because cost-controlled young players are often the key to building a championship roster.

Some will scoff at trading a player within the division, but that criticism is be unfounded. Detroit is dealing Hockenson at a time when how good the Vikings are is irrelevant to the Lions' future championship chance. In exchange, they will draft players who will play against the Vikings for years.

In the long term, the Lions still have a solid pass-catching foundation with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, who was selected after a draft-day trade with the Vikings in April.


Bears trade LB Smith to Ravens

Baltimore Ravens get: LB Roquan Smith
Chicago Bears get: LB A.J. Klein, 2023 second-round pick, 2023 fifth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 31

Grade for the Ravens: B

In the messy world of the 2022 season, the 5-3 Ravens are real contenders. They rank sixth in ESPN's Football Power Index and had the seventh-best chance to win the Super Bowl prior to this trade. They've played the third-hardest strength of schedule and have the 22nd-most difficult schedule remaining. So it makes sense for Baltimore to try to improve.

In trading for Smith, Baltimore is attempting to shore up a defense that ranks 21st in EPA per play, lagging well behind the Ravens' sixth-ranked offense.

Smith comes with the credentials of a player who should help. He has been a second-team All-Pro in each of the past two seasons and is generally well-regarded. The advanced metrics aren't quite as solid, though:

  • Smith currently ranks 16th in run stop win rate among linebackers, which would be the highest rank of his career.

  • Smith is allowing 0.9 yards per coverage snap as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That is roughly average for a linebacker and matches his number from last season. His 2020 coverage numbers were elite -- he allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap and minus-36 EPA.

  • Smith has 2.5 sacks this season and has 16.5 in his five-year career. His 14% pass rush win rate is mediocre and is in line with what he posted last year. He has a 20% pass rush win rate for his career.

That being said, linebacker is one of the toughest positions to quantify with our current tools, so I place some weight on the All-Pro nods. The other downside is that Smith plays off-ball linebacker, a nonpremium position.

Smith is currently playing on his fifth-year option, and Baltimore will have a decision to make. The Ravens could ink Smith to a long-term deal, which would keep a major player on their roster but essentially mean that they traded for the right to pay him market price. Alternatively, they could let him walk and, depending on how they manage the rest of free agency, could recoup a midround compensatory pick (a year later) for him -- and no one works the compensatory pick system quite like the Ravens. If they do that, that makes the terms to acquire Smith feel quite reasonable, especially considering Chicago picked up almost all of his remaining 2022 salary.

The Ravens could also franchise-tag Smith and push the decision until after 2023, though they'd presumably like to keep that option available for quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Ultimately, Baltimore's desire to upgrade makes sense. Though if I'm the Ravens, I'd rather spend draft capital on a midseason upgrade at a premium position such as wide receiver. Rashod Bateman aggravated a foot injury and will be out a few weeks, leaving the Ravens without much else at pass-catcher behind tight end Mark Andrews, who is also banged up. Making this move and adding a receiver are not mutually exclusive, however.

Grade for the Bears: B

The Bears had to trade Robert Quinn. They didn't have to trade Smith, but it was close to that.

Smith could have been franchised and/or signed to a long-term deal after this season, but the Bears are rebuilding, meaning that the value Smith offers over the second half of this season is worth a lot more to a current contender than it is to the Bears. Plus, Smith already requested a trade away from Chicago in August. It was better to cash in now.

It's a smaller factor, but I do think it's interesting and not ideal that the Bears have picked up the salary tab in both the Quinn deal and the Smith trade for the rest of 2022. It can grease the wheels to get things done, but it means sacrificing a normal perk of a teardown. In dealing players you usually rack up draft picks and save cap space to roll into seasons when you are contending.

Still, gaining a second-round pick is useful for a team that is going to need to add young talent to its roster. And for the Bears, a second-round pick now is definitely better than the prospect of a third-round compensatory pick had Smith walked after the season. The pick keeps them flexible for free agency and gives them an additional pick now to get their rebuild going.


Giants trade WR Toney to Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs get: WR Kadarius Toney
New York Giants get: 2023 third-round pick; 2023 sixth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 27

Grade for the Chiefs: B

The defining characteristic of Toney's young NFL career has been lack of availability. He has played in exactly half of the Giants' 24 games since the start of 2021 because of injuries and COVID-19.

This year, Toney injured his hamstring in training camp, then played in the first two games of the season before reinjuring it. He hasn't played since and now believes he returned to action too soon the first time around.

But the other important factor is how efficient Toney was in his rookie season, albeit it in a somewhat limited sample.

Getting 420 receiving yards over 10 games might not sound particularly special, but Toney's limited playing time means he showed serious promise on a per-route basis. Among players with at least 150 routes run in 2021, Toney ranked 17th in yards per route run and 11th in yards per route run vs. man coverage.

His receiver tracking metrics from that first year flashed an ability to get open and generate yards after catch: He recorded a 67/45/64 open score/catch score/YAC score. A 67 open score right now would be well above those of Chiefs receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster (52) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (29), although well below that of tight end Travis Kelce (80).

So Toney possesses promise. I think players traded early in their rookie contracts are interesting because there are countervailing forces at work. The longer they play, the less time remaining on a below-market deal they have left (decreasing their value) but also the more confident teams become in the quality of that player (increasing their value if the player has played well). In this case, though, the injuries complicate the picture, so Toney's forecast remains muddled.

Although the Chiefs' offense has been successful without Tyreek Hill, I think it could still use long-term receiving help. Smith-Schuster is looking like an increasingly successful signing (although 55% of his receiving yards have come via YAC, fourth highest of any WR with at least 150 routes this season), but Valdes-Scantling -- despite putting up a few big-yardage games -- is flashing some warning signs. He has the worst open score in the league and is bottom 10 in YAC score.

Kelce, Smith-Schuster and Valdes-Scantling have roughly split slot snaps (with between 120 and 134 each) this year, with Mecole Hardman also working in at times. None of them exclusively occupies that space: All three WRs play more frequently out wide, while Kelce aligns tight as often as he's in the slot. Toney played in the slot 55% of the time last year, per NFL Next Gen Stats.

There are risks here. But for a Super Bowl contender like the Chiefs, I think acquiring Toney is a reasonable upside bet that has the potential to pay dividends this year if he's healthy but also for years to come. Toney is on just Year 2 of his rookie contract, and Smith-Schuster and Hardman are in the final years of their deals, plus Valdes-Scantling's $8.6 million 2023 salary is not guaranteed.

Grade for the Giants: B

The first sign Toney's time on the Giants might be cut short came during the 2022 draft, when the team selected another slot receiver, Wan'Dale Robinson, with the No. 43 pick. The selection resulted in questions about whether the team would deal Toney, which prompted an immediate denial from Giants GM Joe Schoen regarding the team "shopping" the receiver.

Whether they were or weren't putting him out there at the time, Toney is now gone.

With that draft pick, playing Toney just seven snaps in Week 1 (although he did play 28 in Week 2) and now the Giants moving on just 18 months into his pro career, we can conclude he didn't mesh with the new Schoen/Brian Daboll regime, which came in this offseason and thus did not draft him.

If we ignored all the circumstances, this trade would look odd. The Giants are 6-1 with arguably the worst wide receiver room in the NFL but just traded a high-upside player out of it. But the Giants are not as good as their record suggests and decided to get what they could for Toney now. It's like a falling stock: He has the potential to rebound, but the team didn't want to wait to find out and risk his trade value sinking more.

The aforementioned collection of receivers the Giants have on their roster -- Robinson, Darius Slayton, Richie James, Kenny Golladay, Marcus Johnson, David Sills V -- does not inspire a ton of confidence, but again, Toney barely played this year. New York has been riding with this lackluster group all season (Sterling Shepard suffered a torn ACL in Week 3), anyway.

If Toney wasn't part of the Giants' long-term plans, at least they did get tangible assets from trading him now.


Bears trade DE Quinn to Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles get: DE Robert Quinn
Chicago Bears get: 2023 fourth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 26

Grade for the Eagles: A

A year ago at this time, the Los Angeles Rams pushed more chips into the middle, trading second- and third-round picks for Von Miller in what ended up being a pivotal move in their Super Bowl title run.

The Eagles -- undefeated and clearly Super Bowl contenders in an otherwise pedestrian NFC -- pulled off a similar maneuver in acquiring Quinn. Except it only cost them a fourth-round pick, plus some money against the salary cap, to get it done.

Quinn, 32, might not be what Miller was perceived to be a year ago (before his incredible postseason), but he's not that far off. What player records 18.5 sacks in a season and somehow remains under the radar? Quinn, that's who.

He's a pass rush win rate Hall of Famer: In the five full seasons of the metric (2017-2021), Quinn boasts two of the top five and four of the top 20 pass rush win rate seasons at edge.

His numbers are a little down this season. His 17% pass rush win rate at edge ranks only 23rd, and he has only one sack. But he has also been doubled-teamed on 29% of his pass rushes this year, a huge jump from the 19% double-team rate he faced last season. That high rate is very unlikely to continue in Philadelphia.

While the slight dip in Quinn's 2022 metrics is a minor concern, he's a great bet to make for a fourth-round pick. Again -- he had 18.5 sacks with a 26% pass rush win rate on a bad team only a year ago!

Between Brandon Graham, Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat, Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox, pass rush was already an Eagles strength. Now it's absolutely ferocious.

According to ESPN Eagles reporter Tim McManus, a league source confirmed that the Bears will pay the bulk of Quinn's $12.8 million salary. The Eagles will have the ability to keep him for a non-guaranteed $14 million in 2023 and $13 million in 2024 -- perhaps a stretch given his age, but you never know based on how Quinn finished last season. It's never bad to have the option.

Grade for the Bears: B-

The Bears had to trade Quinn. I was surprised it didn't happen before the season, to be honest. But for a rebuilding team Quinn was too good, too old and cost too much against the salary cap to remain in Chicago, where his production and cost would be wasted.

Despite beating the New England Patriots on "Monday Night Football" and having a 3-4 record, credit the Bears for knowing who they are: non-contenders. ESPN's Football Power Index considered Chicago the 27th best team in the NFL prior to the Quinn deal. Trading Quinn arms the Bears with an extra pick and some cap space they can roll into the future for when they intend to seriously compete.

The compensation is a little lighter than what I expected given Quinn's incredible production a year ago. Ultimately, though, the Bears had to take the best offer available to them before the deadline.

Quinn might not be the only impact defender Chicago deals prior to the deadline. Linebacker Roquan Smith is currently playing on his fifth-year option and requested a trade prior to this season.

From a pass-rushing standpoint, the Bears are left thin without Quinn, as no player on their roster has more than 2.5 sacks. The player who has 2.5 sacks? Smith, who could be following Quinn out of Chicago.


Raiders trade DT Hankins to Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys get: DT Johnathan Hankins, 2024 seventh-round pick
Las Vegas Raiders get: 2023 sixth-round pick
Trade date: Oct. 25

Grade for the Cowboys: B

The Cowboys have a ferocious pass rush, but their defensive line has been spotty in stopping the interior run. The Cowboys rank 17th in yards per carry allowed overall (4.45) but 22nd on runs up the middle (4.53). Dallas ranks 26th in run stop win rate among its interior linemen, driven mostly by Osa Odighizuwa, who ranks 70th out of 71 defensive tackles in the category at 19%.

In acquiring Hankins, Dallas adds a veteran defensive tackle who is at least adequate against the run. Hankins' 33% run stop win rate would be tied for 39th among 71 defensive tackles this season, and he's been a couple percentage points better than that over the past couple of seasons.

He doesn't offer much in terms of pass rush -- he has just a 5% pass rush win rate, roughly half the average for a defensive tackle -- but that's not what the Cowboys need. The aforementioned Odighizuwa, along with Trysten Hill (who would rank third in pass rush win rate among interior linemen if he qualified), have Dallas covered on that front.

Hankins is on a cheap one-year deal.

Grade for the Raiders: B

Hankins was a depth piece for the Raiders, but his playing time had been trending down. He played 48% of defensive snaps in Week 1 but only 18% this past Sunday against the Houston Texans, and he had even been a healthy scratch earlier this season.

Bilal Nichols, Andrew Billings and Kendal Vickers have all played more snaps at defensive tackle than Hankins this season, and defensive end Clelin Ferrell played more defensive tackle snaps in Week 7 than Hankins, too.


Jaguars trade RB Robinson to Jets

New York Jets get: RB James Robinson
Jacksonville Jaguars get: Conditional sixth-round pick (becomes a fifth-round pick if Robinson rushes for 260 yards with the Jets)
Trade date: Oct. 24

Grade for the Jets: C+

When Breece Hall ran for a 62-yard touchdown against the Denver Broncos on Sunday, it was just the latest play made by the Jets' new, exciting and productive young core. That both Hall (ACL) and second-year offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker (triceps) were lost for the season in that win is a blow to the 5-2 Jets.

You can understand the impulse, then, to bring in reinforcements right away. The Jets have a real shot to reach the playoffs and have talent elsewhere.

I'm just not sure Robinson offers much more than a standard replacement-level running back. On 81 carries this season Robinson has recorded minus-3 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. He also averaged 0.1 and 0.3 rush yards over expectation per carry in 2021 and 2020, topping out at 63 rush yards over expectation two seasons ago. He's coming off an Achilles injury last season, and Jaguars coach Doug Pederson said Monday that Robinson was experiencing knee soreness, a day after the back did not record a single carry in the Jaguars' Week 7 loss to the New York Giants. But we are only a few weeks removed from the Jaguars trusting Robinson with 23 carries in Week 2 (for only 64 yards) and another 17 in Week 3 for an even 100.

Those rush yards over expectation numbers are not too different from what the Jets already have on their roster. Michael Carter and Ty Johnson have recorded 0.0 and minus-0.2 rush yards over expectation per carry over their careers, though I will note Carter's limited sample this season has been worse than last.

Hall boasted home run capability, as evidenced by the 21.87 mph he hit on that 62-yard touchdown run, which at the time was the fastest speed by a ball carrier this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Robinson does not have that kind of speed. He has topped 20 mph as a ball carrier just once in his career, and it was in 2020.

What Robinson does bring is experience -- he ran for more than 1,000 yards in 2020 and caught 49 passes that year, too. The receiver tracking metrics have him as nothing special in the receiving game, though, as he is a 48 in overall score in his career.

One area where the Jets could use help is pass protection. Since 2019, Carter and Johnson rank 71st and 76th out of 77 running backs in terms of wins and losses on pass block plays among runners with at least 50 pass block plays. Robinson is better, but not by a ton, ranking 58th.

Robinson will be a restricted free agent next season, so the Jets have the opportunity to hold on to him fairly cheaply in 2023.

The experience isn't nothing, and the Jets know they are getting a capable NFL back. But that's also, for example, what the Broncos got when they signed Latavius Murray off the Saints' practice squad a few weeks ago. Competent running back play is available for very cheap in the NFL, which is why the position is a nonpremium. The Jets didn't give up much here, but a fifth-round pick -- which the conditional pick will almost surely become -- is something.

Grade for the Jaguars: B+

Travis Etienne Jr. is the Jaguars' long-term answer at running back, so it likely wasn't too difficult for Jacksonville to part with Robinson. To get a fifth-rounder for a backup running back who is coming off a serious injury is good value and a nice little piece of business.

That's true for all the reasons we outlined in the Jets section. There are so many talented running backs entering the NFL each year that finding a middle-class back is not difficult.

JaMycal Hasty will presumably replace Robinson. In a very small 40-carry career sample, Hasty has recorded 0.9 rush yards over expectation.


Panthers trade RB McCaffrey to 49ers

San Francisco 49ers get: RB Christian McCaffrey
Carolina Panthers get: Second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2023 and a fifth-round pick in 2024
Trade date: Oct. 20

Grade for the 49ers: C-

There's some irony in Kyle Shanahan's running back shopping addiction when his offense is a perfect example of the limits of the position's impact. From Matt Breida to Raheem Mostert to Elijah Mitchell to Jeff Wilson Jr., unheralded backs have run efficiently in the 49ers' offense. Of course, McCaffrey is a completely different player and a wildly different skill level than a Trey Sermon or Jerick McKinnon. But the point is that running back is a non-premium position for a reason.

Of course, we can all see the appeal. McCaffrey in a Shanahan offense alongside Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle? That is scary for opponents. In particular, the idea of Samuel and McCaffrey together and the flexibility that duo offers Shanahan on the ground and/or in the receiving game is menacing. Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo has his limits, but the 49ers can win with a talented roster around him, so I understand the attempt to maximize this group while it's together.

McCaffrey is a truly elite receiving back who has recorded a 1,000-yard receiving season and is No. 1 in our receiving tracking metrics overall score among running backs since 2018. The running backs who thrived in Shanahan's system have thrived running the ball, and McCaffrey does bring a different dimension.

From a contract standpoint, this is not that severe. McCaffrey is effectively free this season to San Francisco and will cost the 49ers a non-guaranteed $12 million against the cap next year -- which they presumably will pay if they were willing to make this deal. The Niners would have the option to pay him roughly the same $12 million in 2024 and 2025, which is nice, but I doubt it will come to that. And here's where we come to the downside, even beyond the positional value.

McCaffrey is injury plagued. He missed 23 of 33 games during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, though he has been healthy this year. And for a running back in the modern NFL, McCaffrey is old. He's only 26 years old, but he's in his sixth season, and the last time a running back in his sixth season or later cracked 1,100 yards was 2017 (LeSean McCoy and Mark Ingram II).

On the ground, there are signs of McCaffrey's waning ability as a rusher, too. In 2018 and 2019, he averaged 0.7 and 0.8 rush yards over expectation per carry, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. In 2020, 2021 and 2022, that number dropped to minus-0.3, minus-0.1 and 0.1, respectively, meaning he has been accumulating only what's expected given the position of all 22 players on the field at handoff. So the 49ers are realistically banking on a healthy and productive McCaffrey for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, which is far from a safe bet.

The draft capital is the other part of this. At least it wasn't a first-rounder, though San Francisco's Day 1 selection already belongs to the Dolphins. But losing a second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-round pick will have ripple effects for years to come. Draft picks are like credit cards; this costs the 49ers nothing now, but they will feel it three years from now. There's a counterargument that the 49ers have so many compensatory third-rounders via the hirings of Mike McDaniel, Robert Saleh and Martin Mayhew elsewhere that it makes it easier for them to make this deal, but that, to me, is just surplus fallacy. Those were assets that could have been used elsewhere.

Talented rosters don't last forever, and the NFC is looking particularly weak, so I understand the impulse to seize opportunity when it presents itself. It's a tantalizing upside play. But the most likely outcome here is the 49ers will end up regretting this choice.

Grade for the Panthers: A-

Once Carolina's season went south, the Panthers had to at least try to deal McCaffrey. The rest of his 2022 would be meaningless to the Panthers but meaningful to a contending team, and that asymmetry -- along with Carolina having a completely unknown timeline to relevance again and the lack of running back longevity in the NFL -- made a trade necessary for the Panthers.

The cost savings are minimal, but that's not the point. It's all about the draft picks. The Panthers have some talented players on their roster, some of whom they'll presumably keep past the trade deadline. But they certainly need to reload and will be in the market for a quarterback. These picks can only help. While Carolina didn't land a first-rounder, I figured that wasn't in the cards for an oft-injured veteran running back, even an elite one. And a second-rounder, third-rounder and then some can equate to a first-rounder.

There are worlds where even a healthy McCaffrey would not have had a market this hot. So the Panthers did well to get this package from the 49ers -- and to get it now.


Panthers trade WR Anderson to Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals get: WR Robbie Anderson
Carolina Panthers get: Sixth-round pick in 2024, seventh-round pick in 2025
Trade date: Oct. 17

Grade for the Cardinals: C

Even with DeAndre Hopkins coming back from suspension, the Cardinals need help at receiver -- Marquise Brown suffered a potentially season-ending foot injury Sunday, per Adam Schefter. A.J. Green, who has run the second-most routes among Cardinals WRs this year, ranks last among all qualifying wide receivers and tight ends -- and it's not even close -- in overall score on our new Receiver Tracking Metrics (RTMs) with a 22. Green also ranks last in yards per route run among wide receivers with at least 75 routes.

The problem is that Anderson is no Brown and might be only a slight upgrade over Green. While he has been better in the RTMs in 2022 than Green, the former Panthers wideout recorded the worst overall score in 2021 (12). Anderson has a 41 overall score in 2022 and has been below average to average across the board with an Open Score, Catch Score and YAC Score of 40, 46 and 50, respectively. He has 206 receiving yards this season, 150 more than Green on a similar number of routes while playing with a worse quarterback. He also has had an almost unfathomably low 48% catch rate both this year and last.

Anderson has been productive before, though. He racked up 1,096 receiving yards on 95 receptions in 2020 (and performed much better in the RTMs that year, too).

The cost here is light. It's also a little more than I'd thought a team would have to spend for a disappointing receiver clearly in conflict with his team. He's also only a rental for the Cardinals: Anderson's non-guaranteed $12 million in salary plus roster and workout bonuses is in 2023 is not a price Arizona will be paying.

Grade for the Panthers: B+

The Panthers have enough building blocks that I don't think they need to be in full-on fire-sale mode. But dealing Anderson is an easy call given not just his lack of performance but also his argument on the sideline Sunday with his position coach that led to Panthers interim head coach Steve Wilks booting him from the game.

Anderson will carry a pricey dead cap charge -- he had a $9.7 million bonus cap hit this year and next year -- but that money was a sunk cost, and he was not going to be on the team in 2023 anyway.

Given the circumstances, that the Panthers were able to turn Anderson into unconditional picks, even late and future ones, is a nice piece of light business.


Falcons trade LB Jones to Browns

Cleveland Browns get: Linebacker Deion Jones, seventh-round pick in 2024
Atlanta Falcons get: Sixth-round pick in 2024
Trade date: Oct. 9

Grade for the Browns: B+

The Browns needed to fill the spot left vacant by Anthony Walker, who suffered a torn quad tendon in September and will miss the rest of the season. In Jones, the Browns land a low-cost veteran option who still possesses upside. It's been a while since Jones was one of the best linebackers in the league -- he was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2017 -- and was not productive outside of pass rushing (29% pass rush win rate) in 2021. Plus, he has yet to play this season after undergoing an offseason shoulder procedure.

That being said, Jones showed signs of stronger play in 2020. That year his run stop win rate was 38% -- tied for eighth-best among linebackers -- and his 0.6 yards per coverage snap allowed also eighth-best, per NFL Next Gen Stats (among LBs with 250 coverage snaps that year). His pass rush win rate (36%) was strong that season, too.

Jones isn't old -- he'll turn 28 on Nov. 4 -- so it's possible he returns to his 2020 form. The low cost of the move, both in terms of draft compensation and salary ($1.1 million salary plus roster bonuses that will total less than another million, depending on whether he remains on the team and how many games he is active) makes this a solid deal for the Browns, who absolutely need to improve on defense to contend.

Grade for the Falcons: B-

No matter who he played for in 2022, Jones was not going to remain on his current deal in 2023, when he has a $12 million unguaranteed salary. Atlanta's view surely was to get something rather than nothing. Which is fair.

The Falcons converted a large portion of Jones' 2022 salary into bonus money earlier this year, which made the contract tradeable. It also means the Falcons received very little draft compensation or salary relief. But that's still better than no draft compensation and no salary relief.


Patriots trade OT Herron to Raiders

Las Vegas Raiders get: Offensive tackle Justin Herron, seventh-round pick in 2024
New England Patriots get: Sixth-round pick in 2024
Trade date: Sept. 21

Grade for the Raiders: B

The Raiders have been plagued by poor offensive line play in recent seasons. Acquiring Herron, who has started 10 games in his two-plus years in New England, is a small move but the kind of bet Las Vegas should be making.

In his limited playing time Herron, a 2020 sixth-round selection, recorded a career pass block win rate of 88% (roughly average for a tackle) and run block win rate of 69% (below average).

Let's focus on that first part for a minute: An 88% PBWR would be well above what the Raiders had gotten from right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor through two games (83%) or what he produced the last time he received significant playing time at tackle, in 2020 (82%). Herron's run blocking rates were comparable to Eluemunor's since 2020.

That Herron landed behind not only Isaiah Wynn but evidently Yodny Cajuste on New England's depth chart is a mark against him. Herron is unlikely to help much on the ground, but he can at minimum add depth and at best improve pass protection at right tackle. That makes him a worthwhile acquisition for nearly zero cost in terms of draft picks or salary.

With all that said, Herron tore his ACL in practice Oct. 6 and is out for the season.

Grade for the Patriots: B-

New England ultimately chose Cajuste and/or sliding Mike Onwenu over from right guard as preferable backup options to Wynn, with Marcus Cannon as further depth. It's a hard thing to really knock the team when we effectively haven't seen Cajuste play.

On the other hand, Herron's league average pass block win rate in his career is better than you would expect for a replacement-level tackle. It's also better than what Cannon has posted in any season since 2017, when the win rates began.

You can only carry so many players, but it does seem that Herron has at least some potential to be a useful player considering his (albeit limited) track record and playing a position in which it often takes time to develop.