The NFL trade deadline is less than a week away, and some teams that likely anticipated moving on from players are instead in the market to add them. Amid a strange season, we've seen a handful of teams that were expected to struggle instead flip the script and get out to hot starts. It might still feel like the beginning of the season, but we're approaching the halfway point, and those franchises might already have done enough to position themselves as likely playoff teams come January.
With that in mind, their trade deadline calculus also changes. These teams might rightfully see themselves as aggressive at the deadline, either to shore up a hole caused by injury or improve on a weakness that the league's better rosters will be capable of exploiting. What might have been a developmental or rebuilding year is now a competing year, and that's going to fuel moves that might not have made sense before the season.
Let's take four teams that unexpectedly have winning records after Week 7 and break down what their situations look ahead of the deadline. I'll use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to detail their chances of making it to the postseason, advanced metrics to get a sense of how they're really playing independent of their record, and their cap and roster situations to figure out what sort of moves they might want to make (or avoid) before the deadline on Tuesday.
I'll begin in the AFC East, where one team already appears to have revealed its strategy.
Jump to a team:
Jets | Giants | Vikings | Seahawks
New York Jets (5-2)
Chances to make the playoffs: 66.9%
Preseason chances to make playoffs: 22.3%
Remaining strength-of-schedule ranking: No. 15
Let's start with the Jets, who have already signaled that they'll be looking to add more to their roster as they try to make it back to the postseason. With rookie running back Breece Hall sidelined for the season after tearing his left ACL on Sunday, the Jets quickly responded by sending a conditional sixth-round pick to the Jaguars for James Robinson. The selection would become a fifth-rounder if Robinson gains at least 260 rushing yards over the remainder of the season.
I'm typically inclined to argue that teams playing in versions of the Gary Kubiak/Mike Shanahan offense -- as the Jets do under coordinator Mike LaFleur -- should go after running backs available on the waiver wire or in street free agency. But given that the Jets are giving up only a late-round pick here, I don't think there's any reason to be too upset with this deal. Robinson was the lead back for the Jaguars to start the season, which was shocking for a player who was just nine months past tearing his left Achilles. The third-year player had been ceding touches to Travis Etienne Jr. in recent weeks, though, and he didn't touch the ball once across 12 snaps in Jacksonville's loss to the Giants on Sunday.
While he's not much more than a checkdown and screen option in the passing game, Robinson has been a solid runner in each of his pro campaigns. His efficiency metrics have been down across the board in 2022, which shouldn't be a surprise given the quick return from the Achilles injury, but he has been slightly above-average given his blocking by the NFL Next Gen Stats rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) model. Robinson should figure in as a rotational back alongside Michael Carter, who offers more as a receiver.
What's interesting about this deal in the context of how the Jets perceive themselves is that they're targeting a player whose role is mostly to help them compete in 2022. Hall will be back in 2023, and while J.K. Dobbins' return to injured reserve is a reminder that ACL recoveries aren't as predictable as they might seem, it seems likely that the second-rounder will be the featured runner for the Jets next season.
Robinson is a restricted free agent after the year and could make anywhere from $2.7 million to just over $6 million, depending on how the Jets choose to tender him. The middle ground would be a second-round tender, which would pay him $4.3 million. The organization could also renounce his rights, though that would be a surprise. But in any scenario, the Jets are acquiring him for what he can do now, not what he can do down the line.
At 5-2, the Jets are favorites to make the playoffs. Their chances aren't quite as great as the record might indicate -- the Bills exist and sit in first place in the AFC East -- but Robert Saleh's team still has a 66.9% chance of making the organization's first trip to the playoffs since 2010. While New York has already banked plenty of victories, advanced models aren't quite as impressed. DVOA has it as the 12th-best team, two spots behind the 2-5 Jaguars. ESPN's FPI has the Jets at 16th, behind both the Jags and the Browns.
One thing a team can't control is whether it goes up against the best versions of its opponents. The Jets, incredibly, have managed to play four of their first seven games against backup quarterbacks, winning all four. Saleh's defense has been able to top the Browns (Jacoby Brissett), Steelers (the duo of Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett), Dolphins (Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson) and Broncos (Brett Rypien). They may even get a fifth game against a backup this week with the Patriots, who could start Bailey Zappe.
New York can only play the teams on its schedule, and its most impressive victory of the year was a manhandling of reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at Lambeau Field. But it also seems fair to wonder whether a team that has gone 1-2 against starting quarterbacks this year should really be adding players at the trade deadline.
While general manager Joe Douglas was putting out a fire by trading for Robinson, the Jets have been hit by more injuries elsewhere. The offensive line has been ripped apart. Right tackle Mekhi Becton is out for the year (right knee), as is 2021 first-rounder Alijah Vera-Tucker, who went down Sunday (triceps). Fellow tackle George Fant hasn't played since Week 3 with a knee injury, while 37-year-old tackle Duane Brown -- who was originally going to replace Becton -- missed the first four weeks with a shoulder injury.
The team's biggest problem right now, though, is second-year quarterback Zach Wilson. While he has won his first four starts in 2022, he has been woefully inconsistent and made too many mental mistakes. Wilson was lucky to come away from the Broncos game without a giveaway, as he made bizarre decisions while scrambling and didn't protect the football. His completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) across the past month is minus-8.0%, which is better than only Baker Mayfield, Trevor Lawrence and Cooper Rush over that stretch.
The Jets aren't about to replace Wilson, so that's a nonstarter. Joe Flacco was fine while Wilson was recovering from his knee injury, and Mike White was a folk hero for a minute last season before running into the Bills' defense, so I'm not sure the Jets would even want to add a veteran backup.
At the same time, the Jets are now into the fourth year of the Douglas-era rebuild, so they should be closer to coming out of their misery than a team like the Giants, which just hired a new coach and general manager. Douglas has already drafted what are likely to be the core players of this team, so it would hardly be unreasonable for him to add veterans who can help over the next season or two, as he did with Robinson.
Douglas also has a compelling player to offer in deals with Elijah Moore. The second-year wideout requested a trade last week after struggling to find a steady role in New York's offense. The Jets turned down his request, but with Garrett Wilson, Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios, LaFleur could get by without Moore. He averaged an impressive 1.8 yards per route run as a rookie with middling quarterback play, and he'll make just $4.4 million combined between 2022-2024, so any team needing receiver help should be calling the Jets and trying to get them to change their mind.
The problem is the Jets' biggest need is along the offensive line, and there aren't many teams that would be willing to trade away the sort of player that would represent equal value for Moore. It's difficult to find a match between a team that could use Moore that also has a spare talented offensive lineman for trade.
I also think the Jets could go after someone to get after quarterbacks. Jets fans might be wondering why I would suggest that they add an edge rusher when they already have Carl Lawson, John Franklin-Myers and rookie first-round pick Jermaine Johnson in the mix. My answer would be to look at the brain trust. Douglas comes from Philadelphia and Saleh comes from San Francisco -- two teams that have built their defenses on endless streams of pass-rushers. I suspect this organization is of the volition that it can never have too many pass-rushers.
I could also see the Jets moving another late-round pick for a veteran guard. Graham Glasgow is probably in his final season with the Broncos, who are unlikely to pay him $14 million in 2023. Denver is out of the playoff picture and prefer second-year lineman Quinn Meinerz when healthy. Five-time Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner has fallen out of the starting lineup in Washington and hasn't played an offensive snap in three weeks, too. Neither player is likely to be on the Jets' roster in 2023, but they could each be an option to fill in for Vera-Tucker in the second half of 2022.
Otherwise, the Jets find themselves in a tricky position. Douglas has improved much of the roster through the draft and free agency, but there's not really much he can do about the quarterback position. Wilson has to play better to raise New York's ceiling for those times when it doesn't get to play against backup quarterbacks.
New York Giants (6-1)
Chances to make the playoffs: 91.8%
Preseason chances to make playoffs: 15.7%
Remaining strength-of-schedule ranking: No. 31
The league's most pleasant surprise is the Giants. It looked like they were embarking on a rebuild as they swapped out coach Joe Judge and general manager Dave Gettleman for Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen. When they came back in the fourth quarter and beat the Titans with a touchdown and a 2-point conversion in Week 1, it felt like a nice moment of culture-building in what was probably going to be a difficult season.
We didn't realize the Giants were demonstrating proof of concept. They're now 6-1. Four of those wins have required fourth-quarter comebacks, and a fifth (over the Panthers) needed the Giants to break a fourth-quarter tie. Their formula of keeping things close before running back Saquon Barkley breaks a big play in the final frame seems inevitable at this point. And at 6-1, ESPN's FPI thinks the Giants are heavy favorites to play in the postseason, giving Daboll's team a 91.8% chance.
The comparison I've made throughout this run is between the 2022 Giants and the 2017 Bills, which was Sean McDermott's first season in Buffalo. Schoen arrived at the same time, while Daboll didn't show up until the following year. That Bills team went 9-7 and snuck into the postseason during the final week of the season, but it didn't stop the new brain trust from ripping the team up after the season. Outside of a handful of veterans and the players McDermott had acquired that offseason, the Bills became a very different roster -- and rose to the top of the league in 2020 and 2021.
I suspect the same path will be true for the Giants, who can get out of several onerous contracts this offseason. Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones are both free agents, which will lead to some interesting decisions. The team could choose to keep both, given that Barkley has been its best player on either side of the ball, while Jones' ability as a scrambler and newfound habit of protecting the football has him all the way up to sixth in the NFL in QBR (62.7).
In a strange way, the Giants might be too impressive for their own good. If you believe they can't win a Super Bowl with Jones and will draft a quarterback next year, the logical move would have been to move on now from Barkley, who has a significant injury history. Second contracts for running backs don't often work out, and the Giants are probably looking at three years before they could realistically expect to compete for a title, even if their next QB works out. Re-signing Barkley in the hopes that he'll be part of the next great Giants team in 2025 would be naive.
At 6-1, though, Schoen and Daboll shouldn't and won't make that move to trade away their star back. With Jones' future uncertain and their cap space clogged with bad contracts, the Giants don't have a lot of flexibility. Any moves they make should really be to add players who can help over the next several seasons.
The obvious need comes at receiver, where the high draft picks and free agent additions of the Gettleman era haven't delivered. Kenny Golladay hasn't been healthy or effective. Nor has Kadarius Toney, who has played just 35 offensive snaps for a regime that doesn't seem particularly desperate to get him back on the field. (Update: Toney was traded to the Chiefs on Thursday.) Sterling Shepard is out for the season (left knee), and rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger is out indefinitely after suffering a serious eye injury in Sunday's win over the Jaguars.
It would be reasonable for the Giants to add two receivers before the trade deadline, as long as they're under contract for a couple of seasons at reasonable salaries. I'm not sure the Jets' Moore is a great fit. For one, the Jets probably wouldn't deal the 22-year-old to their local rivals. In addition, the Giants seem set on using second-round pick Wan'Dale Robinson as their primary slot receiver, and the 5-foot-10, 178-pound Moore might profile best in that role.
Steelers wideout Chase Claypool, meanwhile, has primarily spent this season in the slot for the Steelers, but they used him out wide about 75% of the time in 2020 and 2021, and he was productive in that role. The Giants would owe Claypool only a prorated $1.2 million in 2021 and $1.5 million in 2022, giving them a year and a half to evaluate him before free agency. It would be a surprise if the Steelers dealt Claypool for anything short of a second-round pick, but with the Giants expecting to fall in the bottom half of the second round, that might be a reasonable price to land a wideout with that kind of upside.
There are plenty of wide receivers who could be on the move, although the Giants would probably need the trading team to eat salary, which would make the move more expensive. The Patriots could trade Kendrick Bourne or Nelson Agholor. And the Broncos are getting calls on KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy, neither of whom have been particularly healthy or productive as pros.
A different Broncos player might make even more sense. The Giants could have added a tight end before Bellinger's injury, but now, their need at the position is even more obvious. They could go in a number of directions, but one target seems too obvious to ignore: Albert Okwuegbunam.
He was an exciting prospect heading into the season given his physical traits and 2.0 yards per route run in a limited sample as a sophomore, but he fell out of favor with the new coaching staff and has played just 16 offensive snaps since Week 4. Daboll has a well-earned reputation as a coach for getting the most out of his playmakers on offense while minimizing their limitations. Okwuegbunam is still on a rookie contract through the end of next season, and he won't cost much in terms of draft capital in return.
These sorts of moves, where the Giants acquire players with multiple cost-controlled seasons entering the prime of their careers, are the only types of trades I think they should be considering at the trade deadline. In addition to wide receiver, New York could pursue similarly-young options at cornerback (Amani Oruwariye of the Lions makes sense) or inside linebacker (perhaps Devin Bush of the Steelers). Adding a competent veteran for a swap of late-round picks would be fine, but if the Giants are going to make a bigger splash, it should be for players who could be around for years to come.
Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
Chances to make the playoffs: 90.4%
Preseason chances to make playoffs: 36.9%
Remaining strength-of-schedule ranking: No. 18
There has been plenty of national chatter about the Giants and Jets. There hasn't been quite as much for the Vikings, who are in an even more advantageous situation. At 5-1, Kevin O'Connell's team is 2.5 games ahead of the second-placed Packers in the NFC North. ESPN's FPI was more optimistic about the Vikings before the season than the general public, and the algorithm is way more ecstatic now. The model projects the Vikings with just over a 90% chance of making it to the playoffs and an 81.8% chance of winning the division. The only teams with stronger odds of winning their divisions heading into Week 8 are the Bills (93.3%) and Chiefs (96.3%).
I'm not sure anybody -- including the people in the building in Minneapolis -- thinks the Vikings belong in a category with the two best teams in the AFC. Other advanced metrics aren't enthused, too. DVOA has the Vikings 18th in the league, behind a pair of 2-5 teams in the Browns and Jaguars, let alone the Giants and Jets. The good news for the Vikings is that the rest of the division is worse: The Packers come in at 20th, while the Lions are 26th and the Bears rank 28th. The Vikings might not be great, but competent might be enough to win the North.
Like the Giants, the Vikings find themselves competing for a postseason berth in a transitional year. O'Connell and new general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah mostly chose to stay the course this offseason, extending quarterback Kirk Cousins to create short-term cap space while avoiding major spending in free agency. Their most significant addition on paper was former Packers star Za'Darius Smith, but the 30-year-old's three-year, $42 million deal was really a one-year contract for less than $7 million. It seems likely the Vikings will be more aggressive next offseason, when they can trade Cousins with a reasonable amount of dead money on their cap.
Minnesota has been slightly above average on offense and disappointing on defense. With the pass rush showing signs of life in recent weeks, the secondary is the most obvious weakness. I don't think this is a surprise to the Vikings, who brought back Patrick Peterson on a one-year deal and imported Chandon Sullivan to start in the slot for just under $1.8 million. Minnesota has the league's sixth-worst QBR allowed this season (55.2).
Adofo-Mensah used his top two 2022 picks on defensive backs, but first-rounder Lewis Cine broke his left leg in the London win over the Saints, while Andrew Booth Jr. suffered a quad injury in the opener and hasn't played a defensive snap. Booth should take over one of the spots on the outside as the season goes along, though there are no guarantees that he'll be any better than Peterson or Cameron Dantzler Sr. Sullivan has also struggled in the slot, so the Vikings could absolutely add another cornerback to the mix before the trade deadline.
I had initially mentioned Mike Davis of the Chargers as a fit, given his ability to play both outside and in the slot, but with J.C. Jackson going down for the year with a patellar tear, Davis will be back in an every-down role for Los Angeles. Noah Igbinoghene, who was buried on the depth chart in Miami and might have been another option, has also been forced into a regular role by injuries and had a game-sealing interception against the Steelers on Sunday night.
The Vikings would probably be looking at low-cost options. Sidney Jones IV played well for the Seahawks down the stretch last season, but with Tariq Woolen and Mike Jackson emerging as starters, he hasn't been in the lineup. William Jackson III has fallen out of favor in Washington, but he's likely too expensive and hasn't played well since leaving the Bengals. And I have to imagine an Indy team that just benched quarterback Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger probably doesn't need a 32-year-old cornerback, but I don't know if the Vikings have the cap space to commit to a deal for Stephon Gilmore, who is playing well in the first season of a two-year, $20 million contract.
Even though they're 5-1, I wonder if the Vikings would actually consider trading some of the less significant pieces on their roster. Running back Alexander Mattison was subject to trade rumors this offseason, and in the final year of his rookie deal, the 24-year-old has just 30 carries for 97 yards. I don't think the Vikings will re-sign him after the season, and I'm confident that they can find a back to compete with Dalvin Cook and Kene Nwangwu in the rotation, so I wonder if Adofo-Mensah would dangle his backup tailback for depth at cornerback or along the offensive line.
As it stands, I don't think the Vikings are going to be naive about their situation or current talent level and make any significant moves. Minnesota already has banked its wins, but this is a team that has trailed in the fourth quarter against the Bears, Lions and Saints before pulling out comeback victories. For several reasons, the Vikings shouldn't be in a position to get carried away at the deadline.
Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
Chances to make the playoffs: 26.2%
Preseason chances to make playoffs: 18.8%
Remaining strength-of-schedule ranking: No. 7
Let's finish with the Seahawks, who have redefined rebuilding in the NFL. All you need to do to follow the Seattle way is trade two first-round picks in a disastrous deal, then trade away your franchise quarterback to get back those picks. Then target a quarterback who doesn't win the starting job in camp, give the job to the backup you had around a year ago who hasn't started regularly in years and wait for him to be a top-five passer. Finally, mix in one great draft class of rookies, and you've got an instant turnaround.
The Seahawks are in first place in the NFC West and -- with the Broncos enduring a disastrous season -- are in line to also finish with the No. 6 overall pick in the 2023 draft (54.3% chance, per ESPN's FPI). Denver projects to play the league's fourth-toughest schedule from here on out, so things could get even worse. The Seahawks can dream about landing a top-three pick as part of the Russell Wilson deal, one year after sending the 10th pick to the Jets as part of the Jamal Adams trade.
The potential value of the Broncos pick informs the most interesting element of the Seahawks' retooling: What should they do with Geno Smith? On a one-year, $3.5 million deal, Smith has been brilliant and ranks fourth in the league in QBR (66.8). He has played well enough to justify another trip as Seattle's starter in 2023 on a much more significant salary, but the Seahawks should also be in position to use that Broncos pick to draft their quarterback of the future. If they think that's the 32-year-old Smith, they can use that draft selection to add a premium player along the defensive line, on the offensive line or in the secondary.
If the plan is to go with Smith as a bridge quarterback and draft a passer in 2023, Seattle might use the present to go after help elsewhere. It is ranked 26th in pressure rate through seven weeks, so the defensive line seems like an obvious place to target. Second-round pick Boye Mafe has moved into the starting lineup and played a larger role over the past three weeks, and Uchenna Nwosu has three sacks to go with 10 quarterback hits. But nobody on the roster has more than three sacks.
I'm not sure the Seahawks are ready to move on from Darrell Taylor, who looked to be on the rise as recently as a year ago but is enduring a difficult season. He has ceded time to Mafe, though Taylor has racked up sacks and forced fumbles in back-to-back games. I wonder if they would ship Taylor out as part of a deal for a more impactful pass-rusher.
I thought the Seahawks might target Robert Quinn before the Bears dealt the edge rusher to the Eagles on Wednesday for a fourth-round pick. Getting Quinn under the cap would have been tough for Seattle, which might have made a deal more difficult to wrangle. Texans defender Jerry Hughes would be a less expensive veteran option.
Seattle could also look to upgrade on rookie slot corner Coby Bryant, who has allowed a 122.8 passer rating in coverage this season. To go back to the Texans, Desmond King II has moved inside to the slot after playing on the outside a year ago. He has allowed a 42.6 passer rating in coverage, but he has played about only two-thirds of the defensive snaps. If coach Pete Carroll still treats this as a developmental season, he might prefer the rookie -- who has four forced fumbles this year -- to take his lumps.
So much for the Seahawks hinges on how the organization views their chances internally. FPI is much more pessimistic about their chances than the other teams on this list. While they are in first place after seven games, the model gives Carroll's team only a 26.2% chance of making it to the postseason, which is right alongside the Rams (27.4%) and Cardinals (25.5%). I would take the over on those odds, but there's a pretty significant gap between where the Seahawks are and where the other three teams we've discussed stand.
I'm not so sure that would stop Carroll and general manager John Schneider from making a move to compete for a divisional title. There's probably nothing drastic in the cards given the cap situation and uncertainty surrounding the Denver pick, but this is the same organization that has made two of the most shocking trades in football over the past three seasons. Anything and everything is perpetually on the table.