Sunday marked the beginning of the NFL's in-season trading window. We saw the first moderately significant swap of October when the Falcons quietly shipped linebacker Deion Jones to the Browns for a swap of late-round picks. The move essentially was a salary dump for a player the Falcons have been trying to move all summer and had already paid an $8.5 million bonus in September. With Cleveland linebacker Anthony Walker done for the year (left knee), the team needed another off-ball linebacker to play alongside Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
We only have to go back to last year to see how trades help mold the postseason. In August 2021, the Bengals swapped former first-round pick Billy Price for Giants defensive tackle BJ Hill and landed on an impact contributor, with Hill racking up 5.5 sacks in the regular season and 1.5 more during their run to the Super Bowl. And the Rams sent second- and third-round picks to the Broncos for edge rusher Von Miller, with Denver paying virtually all of his remaining salary. It allowed L.A. coach Sean McVay to add a future Hall of Famer for the minimum, and I'm not sure the Rams would have won Super Bowl LVI without Miller's one-on-one dominance during January and February.
Most deals won't be quite as significant or involve names as notable as the Miller trade, but there's plenty of logical action to go around before the Nov. 1 trade deadline.
Let's run through 15 realistic trades that could make sense for both sides. In many cases, I'm looking at players who are struggling to find time for one team who could be a useful fit on another. In others, I'm arguing it's time for a more significant player to move on to a more competitive team. I've tried to honor each team's salary cap capabilities and flexibility as part of each deal.
We'll start with a pair of deals that would send playmakers to Buffalo:
Jump to a notable trade proposal:
Barkley | Claypool | Erving
Quinn | Trubisky | Montgomery
A new target for the Bills' passing game?
Bills get: TE Dan Arnold
Jaguars get: 2023 sixth-round pick
Arnold is a victim of circumstances. The Urban Meyer administration traded former first-round pick CJ Henderson to acquire Arnold last offseason, but with Meyer gone, he has been buried on the tight end depth chart. He has played just 49 offensive snaps this season for the Jags (three catches for 54 yards) and has a little under $1.8 million remaining on the final year of his deal, so Arnold could use a change of scenery in advance of free agency.
A move to the Bills would make sense. Buffalo seemed to want a second veteran tight end behind Dawson Knox when they signed O.J. Howard this offseason, but Howard failed to make the team in camp. Knox and backup Tommy Sweeney have both struggled to stay healthy, leading the Bills to rely on Quintin Morris a week ago. Arnold would offer some veteran security and the flexibility to play more two or three tight end sets when the situation calls for another big body.
A slightly sexier rumor making the rounds this week suggests the Bills could trade for Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey. There should be no surprise when the Bills are linked to any Panthers player, given how often Buffalo general manager Brandon Beane returns to add players from his former organization. McCaffrey seems entirely superfluous for a Panthers team going nowhere, while the Bills could use him as a valuable target in their passing attack. On some level, yes, this deal makes sense.
But ... I'm not sure I buy it. For one, the Panthers really aren't in a position to alienate their fans any further. Carolina owner David Tepper just fired Matt Rhule after a "home" game where the crowd was mostly 49ers fans. There will be a time where the Panthers move on from McCaffrey and his contract, but if they do add a quarterback in the first round of the draft next year, the veteran would be a reliable safety valve for a developing young passer.
We haven't seen the Bills make significant investments at running back since coach Sean McDermott arrived in town. Buffalo wanted to add a back this offseason and nearly signed J.D. McKissic, but it eventually drafted James Cook with a second-round pick -- draft capital that suggests the team's brain trust sees him as a future starter.
It's also difficult to imagine the Bills being able to afford the $12 million that McCaffrey is owed in 2023, meaning they would either need to convince him to take a pay cut or move on from the veteran back after one season in town. I don't see them trading meaningful draft capital to make that sort of move, and having already restructured his deal, the Panthers wouldn't save much money in 2022 by dealing CMC. What about another prominent running back, though?
A Giant addition to the Buffalo running attack
Bills get: RB Saquon Barkley, 2023 seventh-round pick
Giants get: RB Zack Moss, 2023 second-round pick
Barkley makes more sense for the Bills than McCaffrey. As a more physical runner, he would do a better job of punishing teams who want to play light boxes and two-high alignments to avoid giving up big plays to quarterback Josh Allen. Barkley is a free agent after the season, which also plays in Buffalo's favor, since it would likely recoup a compensatory pick for him if he leaves in free agency. The Bills would be renting Barkley for a second-rounder before landing what would likely be a fourth-round pick in 2024.
It would be difficult for the 4-1 Giants to trade Barkley, who has rushed for 533 yards as the focal point of their offense this season. Coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen (both of whom just joined the organization from these very Bills) aren't naive to the situation at hand, though. This is a year where the Giants are doing their final evaluation of quarterback Daniel Jones and fixing their cap situation. They're two years and a new quarterback away from truly competing. And they'll also likely be shopping in free agency this offseason, meaning they're less likely to receive a compensatory pick for Barkley than the Bills would.
The Giants could franchise Barkley after the season, but it would be tough for a rebuilding team to justify giving the oft-injured back a significant extension as he exits his rookie deal. If they're going to lose Barkley after the season, it's better to trade him now and get a significant pick (and a flyer on Moss) in return. I wouldn't want to listen to sports radio in New York the morning after this trade happens, though.
Cornerback depth for K.C. with a former first-rounder
Chiefs get: CB Noah Igbinoghene, 2023 seventh-round pick
Dolphins get: 2023 sixth-round pick
Nobody collects failed first-round cornerbacks like Chiefs general manager Brett Veach, and while Kansas City added three corners in April's draft, first-rounder Trent McDuffie is on injured reserve. When you have to play the Bills, you can never run out of cornerbacks, and it wouldn't surprise me if Kansas City tried to add at least one corner between now and the postseason.
Igbinoghene, drafted with the No. 30 overall selection of the 2020 draft, simply hasn't worked out in Miami. He came into the league looking like he would develop into a physical, versatile cornerback, but defensive coordinator Josh Boyer hasn't been comfortable giving him meaningful snaps. Veteran Byron Jones has yet to play this season, but the Dolphins have preferred undrafted free agent Kader Kohou to Igbinoghene, who didn't play a defensive snap before Week 5.
In-division dealing for help off the edge in Tennessee
Titans get: EDGE Jerry Hughes
Texans get: 2023 fifth-round pick
The Titans sorely need edge rushing help. Harold Landry III is done for the year with a torn ACL, while Bud Dupree has been limited to 21 snaps over the past four weeks with a hip issue. Rashad Weaver has filled in admirably with four sacks and seven knockdowns, but with Dupree's status looking shaky, the Titans could stand to add at least one edge rusher to help fuel their hopes of competing this postseason.
Texans general manager Nick Caserio might hesitate to trade within the division, but at 1-3-1 and with just a 4.1% chance of making it to the postseason per ESPN's Football Power Index, Houston has no real need for a 34-year-old edge rusher. Hughes has a pair of two-sack games already this season while playing 62% of the defensive snaps for the Texans. He's also due just $1.8 million over the rest of the season, making him a low-cost addition to any team's pass rush rotation.
Much-needed offensive line depth for Brady
Buccaneers get: OL Joe Haeg
Browns get: 2023 sixth-round pick
Haeg is one of the few competent veteran lineman not getting regular reps around the league. The 29-year-old, who spent last season with the Steelers, hasn't been needed in Cleveland. He has played just one offensive snap all season and has otherwise been a healthy scratch. The Browns could use him if some of the players ahead of him went down with injuries, but for a team missing significant draft capital after the Deshaun Watson deal, every little bit they can get back counts.
The Buccaneers had Haeg on the roster when they won the Super Bowl in 2020, when he played 127 snaps as a utility lineman behind Tampa Bay's stout offensive line. Haeg's ability to stand in at tackle or guard makes him a valuable addition for a Bucs team without much depth up front. Tampa Bay has had to play undrafted free agent Brandon Walton on Tom Brady's blindside for stretches this season; Haeg would give offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich a safer pair of hands to fill in if someone else gets hurt.
Packers, Steelers swap receivers
Packers get: WR Chase Claypool, 2024 seventh-round pick
Steelers get: WR Amari Rodgers, 2023 fourth-round pick
The writing is on the wall for Claypool, who still seems out of sorts in Pittsburgh. After looking like a budding star during his 2020 debut season, he took a step backward in 2021 and has been anonymous in the offense this season. He averaged just over 2.0 yards per route run as a rookie but fell to 1.7 yards per route run in 2021 and just 0.7 this season. The latter ranks 87th out of 92 wideouts.
Claypool's role might grow with Kenny Pickett taking over as the team's starting quarterback, but I'm not sure he has a long-term future in Pittsburgh. He is in the third season of his rookie deal, which means he's eligible for an extension next offseason and would be an unrestricted free agent the year after that. Diontae Johnson just signed a three-year extension, George Pickens is looming as Pittsburgh's latest exciting young wideout and tight end Pat Freiermuth has impressed when healthy. Claypool probably isn't on this roster in 2024, and the Steelers could use extra picks after they traded away their 2023 fifth- and sixth-round selections.
Let me go back to my mock draft of trades from April and pitch a Claypool-to-Packers deal for the second time. The price is much cheaper than it was then, but the Packers still need help for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is relying on Allen Lazard, Romeo Doubs and Randall Cobb as its primary wideouts, and we saw the limitations of that grouping against the Giants in Week 5. It doesn't appear Christian Watson is ready to jump in as an immediate starter, either.
Trading for Claypool would give the Packers access to a low-cost starter over the next two seasons while buying low on a receiver who has never played with even an average deep passer as a pro. Claypool would need some time to settle in, but he could be a vertical difference-maker by the time the Packers get to the postseason, something Green Bay could sorely use as it tries to stop teams from selling out to stop the run.
The Packers have refused to make a significant investment at wide receiver over the past few years, but given how little their passing attack has shown this season, I'm hoping Brian Gutekunst is willing to take the plunge.
A change of scenery for Mims
Ravens get: WR Denzel Mims
Jets get: 2024 conditional seventh-round pick
Mims has fallen off the radar after being drafted by the Jets in the second round of the 2020 draft -- just ahead of valuable contributors Jeremy Chinn, AJ Dillon and Kristian Fulton. He requested a trade during the preseason and racked up 102 yards in an August game against the Giants, but he hasn't been active for a single regular-season game in 2022. With no special teams role, Mims can't be active as the Jets' fifth wideout on game day.
It's clear that Mims isn't going to live up to his pre-draft expectations, but I still wonder whether he might be worth a flyer for a team like the Ravens. Devin Duvernay has been more impressive than expected as Baltimore's second wideout, but the Ravens could still use another receiver to compete with players like Tylan Wallace and James Proche. Mims ran a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash at the combine, so he has the speed to make teams worry downfield, and he was regarded as a solid blocker coming out of school, which is an essential for any receiver in Baltimore's offense.
This suggested trade's seventh-rounder could turn into a sixth-round pick if Mims plays more than 400 offensive snaps between the remainder of 2022 and 2023.
Upgraded protection for Ryan and the Colts
Colts get: OL Cameron Erving, 2024 seventh-round pick
Panthers get: 2024 fifth-round pick
The Panthers probably aren't trading McCaffrey, but with nothing to play for in 2022, they could absolutely move on from some of the lesser-used players on their roster. Erving started nine games at left tackle in 2021 but hasn't played a single offensive snap this season, so it's difficult to imagine Carolina would miss him too much. Erving has just under $2.9 million remaining in base salary this season, so the Panthers would save a meaningful amount of money.
Indianapolis general manager Chris Ballard and the Colts desperately need help up front. Danny Pinter's struggles caused the Colts to kick Braden Smith inside to guard, move Matt Pryor from left tackle to right tackle and give a first career start at left tackle to rookie third-rounder Bernhard Raimann. Raimann committed four penalties in the first half and didn't look ready to play.
Erving is a below-average left tackle, but he's passable enough to be a massive upgrade in the short-term for the Colts, who need to do a better job of protecting quarterback Matt Ryan.
Rams get an edge rusher for the second straight year
Rams get: EDGE Robert Quinn
Bears get: 2023 third-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
The Rams miss Von Miller. Aaron Donald is still doing his thing on the interior, but the trio of Terrell Lewis, Justin Hollins and Leonard Floyd have combined for just two sacks and three quarterback knockdowns through five games. We've seen Donald make it easier for Miller and Dante Fowler Jr. to impact games on the edge, so it's really telling that the Rams don't feel like they have a second solid pass-rusher right now.
Quinn would be this year's Miller -- the veteran No. 1 edge rusher getting a chance to play next to a future Hall of Famer on the interior. The former Defensive Player of the Year only has one sack in five games this season, but he just finished an 18.5-sack season with the Bears. No one else likely to be available to the Rams this fall has a higher ceiling on the edge than Quinn.
On the field, it's a great fit. Off the field, there are two problems. One is that the Rams would need the Bears to follow in Denver's footsteps and eat as much of Quinn's contract as possible. Quinn still has three years left on his deal, so Los Angeles might have to cut him after the season. But with more than $9.2 million in base salary remaining due to Quinn this year, the Bears would probably need to restructure the contract and pay about $8 million or so in a signing bonus. That's going to cost the Rams more in draft capital, just as it did with the Miller deal a year ago.
The other problem is that Quinn didn't really seem to enjoy his first go-round with the Rams. Coach Sean McVay traded him to the Dolphins in 2018, and Quinn later said he felt "suffocated" in Los Angeles and that he "was not a West Coast guy." Time (and the possibility to win a Super Bowl) heals all wounds, so it's possible he has changed his mind and would go back to Los Angeles for a championship run. If he still feels the same way about Hollywood, though, this deal would probably be off the table.
A QB on the move to Denver
Broncos get: QB Mitch Trubisky
Steelers get: TE Albert Okwuegbunam
Two preseason hype machines go in different directions. Trubisky's time as the starter in Pittsburgh is over, and the 2017 first-rounder will likely be cut after the season, given his $8 million unguaranteed base salary in 2023. Russell Wilson already is dealing with a lat injury in Denver, and his backup is Brett Rypien, who threw four interceptions on 40 attempts in 2020. Trubisky isn't a starting-caliber quarterback, but his mobility makes him a passable backup if Wilson needs to miss time.
Okwuegbunam was a fantasy sleeper heading into 2022, but he has fallen down the tight end depth chart for the Broncos. He saw his snap counts drop in four straight weeks to begin the season, going from 67% in Week 1 to a lone snap in Week 4. Okwuegbunam was back up to 21% in Week 5, but the Broncos also activated second-round pick Greg Dulcich from injured reserve, which could cost Albert O his spot in the lineup. He would be a backup tight end for the Steelers behind Freiermuth, playing a similar role to what Eric Ebron did for Pittsburgh last season.
A receiver swap that could pay off
Panthers get: WR Kendrick Bourne
Patriots get: WR Robbie Anderson
Let's execute a classic change-of-scenery trade for two frustrated receivers. Bourne was a standout for the Patriots in 2021, but he fell into Bill Belichick's doghouse this offseason. He played his largest snap count of the season in the Week 5 win over the Lions, but that was only because Nelson Agholor was benched after his drop led to an interception. Bourne was just targeted once, and that for a single yard.
Anderson, meanwhile, produced a 1,096-yard season with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback in 2020 but has been anonymous since. While he did score a 75-yard touchdown in the opener, he has just 104 total receiving yards over the four ensuing games. The Panthers restructured Anderson's deal, so he's actually cheaper for the remainder of the year than Bourne, and he would offer a downfield speed threat that the Patriots don't currently have on their roster. Bourne is probably the better receiver on the whole, so at a slightly higher price, this looks like a fair deal to me.
A running back rental for the Ravens
Ravens get: RB David Montgomery
Bears get: 2023 fifth-round pick
In a year in which the Bears are cleaning up their cap and beginning their latest rebuild, Montgomery probably belongs elsewhere. He is a free agent after this season, and the people who drafted him no longer work for the organization. Khalil Herbert also has excelled in Montgomery's absence and deserves a larger role.
With the Bears likely to shop in free agency next offseason, they probably will not be in position to gain a compensatory pick for Montgomery when he leaves. The same isn't true for the Ravens, who typically mine the league's compensatory formula for all it's worth. It's not clear whether the Ravens trust J.K. Dobbins right now, given that his snap percentage dropped between Week 4 and Week 5. And Kenyan Drake has been dismal as the team's veteran back, while Justice Hill hasn't been able to stay healthy.
The Ravens renting Montgomery for the rest of the season would probably net them a sixth- or seventh-round compensatory pick in 2024.
Michel's crosstown trip
Rams get: RB Sony Michel
Chargers get: 2024 seventh-round pick
Let's make one more Rams deal and get them a viable running back. Cam Akers simply hasn't been good since returning from his torn Achilles; he averaged 2.6 yards per carry during the 2021 postseason and is at 3.0 yards per rush in 2022. He has also fumbled three times on 128 touches over that stretch and generated minus-47.4 expected points added.
To put that in context, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor generated 30.3 EPA as a runner over the entire 2021 season. Remember how good Taylor was last season? Well, he was closer to league-average on the positive side than Akers has been on the negative side, and Akers has pulled that off across about half as many carries. A Rams team that's built to win now can't rely on Akers.
Now, Michel isn't a superstar, but he's a solid back between the tackles and a player McVay seemed to trust at times last season when he was with the Rams. The Chargers seemed to phase Michel out of their rotation in Week 5, as he went from averaging 14 snaps per game to racking up two against the Browns -- and that in a game where the Chargers ran all over Cleveland. It wouldn't be a surprise if the Chargers cut Michel when they feel Isaiah Spiller is ready to play, so this would just be making that move now and getting a late-round pick in the process.
New home for a former top-five pick
Lions get: EDGE Clelin Ferrell
Raiders get: CB Amani Oruwariye
Let's get more changes of scenery, this time for two pending free agents on teams going nowhere. Ferrell has been a significant disappointment for Las Vegas after being drafted No. 4 overall in 2019. The Jon Gruden regime that drafted Ferrell is gone, and the Josh McDaniels administration has already declined Ferrell's fifth-year option. He has been a reserve defensive end for the Raiders, who used him for a snap Monday night to slow down a split-out Travis Kelce as a would-be defensive back.
The Lions would be taking a shot on evaluating Ferrell as a rotational defensive end for what has been a horrible defense. In his place, they'd send Oruwariye to the Raiders. I thought he was a revelation last season and looked to be a building block for the Lions, but he has struggled in 2022 and was a healthy scratch last week against the Patriots. As a free agent after this season, Oruwariye's future seems to be elsewhere, and the Raiders are perpetually in need of more help at cornerback.
A cornerback upgrade in Minnesota
Chargers get: CB Kris Boyd, 2023 sixth-round pick
Vikings get: CB Michael Davis
Signed to a three-year, $25.2 million extension before the 2021 season, Davis is in a curious situation with the Chargers. He was an every-down corner in the slot last season, but after Los Angeles signed Bryce Callahan and J.C Jackson this offseason, his role has disappeared.
When Jackson has been sidelined by his ankle injury, Davis has still been an every-down player. But when Jackson has been able to play -- as he has the past couple of weeks -- Davis doesn't see a single defensive snap. Depth is great, but most teams would consider paying a cornerback who doesn't see the field on defense most weeks a $7 million base salary to be a waste of money. Boyd would be a much more realistic (and less expensive) fourth or fifth cornerback for Los Angeles.
At 4-1, the Vikings have legitimate playoff aspirations and need help at cornerback. Chandon Sullivan has struggled as the team's slot corner this season. The Vikings have allowed a 94.0 QBR to slot receivers, the fifth-worst mark in football. Minnesota would need the Chargers to eat some money to make this deal work, but Davis would be a significant upgrade in the slot and a possible solution next year, too.