<
        >

          NFL players, coaches with most to gain or lose in 2022

          • Bill BarnwellNov 10, 2022, 06:35 AM ET
            Close
              Bill Barnwell is a senior NFL writer for ESPN.com. He analyzes football on and off the field like no one else on the planet, writing about in-season X's and O's, offseason transactions and so much more.

              He is the host of the Bill Barnwell Show podcast, with episodes released weekly. Barnwell joined ESPN in 2011 as a staff writer at Grantland.
            Follow on X

          It doesn't even take a full NFL season for fortunes to change. Before the 2022 season, when I highlighted the people around the league with the most to gain or lose, I thought we would have to wait 18 weeks to get answers.

          Instead, some stories are finished, and others are on the final pages. From that list, Panthers coach Matt Rhule has been fired. Jets offensive tackle Mekhi Becton got hurt and will miss the entire season. Raiders coach Josh McDaniels' team is out of the playoff picture, and Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst's team is on its last legs after losing five straight.

          There have been some positives, too. Dolphins passer Tua Tagovailoa and Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts are in the middle of career seasons. Giants signal-caller Daniel Jones has been competent for the 6-2 Giants. Seattle coach Pete Carroll's rebuild ended before it started, and the Seahawks are 2.5 games ahead of the pack for first place in the NFC West.

          Let's take a look at the players and coaches (plus one executive) who have the most to gain or lose over the second half of the season. We'll check in with some of those highlighted before the season, of course, but there are plenty of new candidates who have money, future opportunities or some element of their legacies riding on what happens over the next three months of football.

          We'll start, again, with the man making the biggest bet in football and go through the rest of the 33-man list, sorted by position and ending with coaches and executives:

          Jump to a position:
          QB | RB | WR | TE
          OL | DL | LB | DB
          Jobs: Coach | GM

          Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

          While everyone in the Ravens organization has publicly adopted the attitude that a contract extension for the 2019 MVP is inevitable, Jackson's short- and long-term future is still in question. He is playing out his $23 million fifth-year option this season, which is rare for first-round quarterbacks with his sort of résumé. Players this good almost always sign extensions before Year 5.

          Of course, Jackson wants something few players have a path to getting, no matter how good they are: a fully guaranteed megadeal. With Deshaun Watson getting five years and $230 million from the Browns in March, Jackson might credibly ask for five years and something closer to $250 million from Baltimore. If he leads the Ravens on a deep playoff run, it would be difficult to deny him that sort of extension.

          Without that sort of performance, the Ravens would probably end up sticking the exclusive franchise tag on Jackson, which is expected to be around $45.4 million. Not chump change, of course, but there's a difference of more than $200 million in guarantees between those figures. He could make that difference up on a new deal in 2024 and beyond, but any player is one injury away from not realizing their future earnings potential.

          If Jackson struggles, the Ravens might consider floating the ultimate trial balloon for his market. Sticking him with the non-exclusive franchise tag would be a little cheaper, but it would allow other teams to sign him to an offer sheet. Baltimore would get two first-round picks if it declined to match. Is there a universe in which the team could move on from him? And if so, could Jackson end up staying in the DMV and moving to, of all teams, the Commanders? Probably not, but if the Ravens don't get a deal done this offseason, the clock will be ticking on his future in Baltimore.

          Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Dolphins

          I'm not sure even the wildest Tagovailoa fans could have anticipated how great he has been this season. He leads the league in most efficiency metrics, including QBR, passer rating and yards per attempt. By adjusted net yards per attempt after accounting for era, he hasn't just taken the biggest Year 2 to Year 3 leap ever. He's having the best third season any quarterback has had since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.

          Obviously, if Tagovailoa keeps this up, he's going to get a massive extension at the end of the season. He would be a viable MVP winner and could realistically ask for some version of the Watson contract. Even if he's just pretty good over the rest of the season, it's difficult to imagine him leaving Miami. It would take a truly remarkable collapse (or a serious injury) for the Dolphins to consider any other quarterback in 2023.

          And yet, given team owner Stephen Ross's attempts behind the scenes to land the box-office combination of coach Sean Payton and quarterback Tom Brady, can we really rule out anything? Tagovailoa was a question mark two months ago, and if he falls all the way back to earth, it would be foolish to rule out any possibility of a change. Trading him would give the Dolphins some of the draft capital they'll need to pry away Payton from the Saints if they want to go in that direction. In fact, a Tagovailoa for Payton swap might make both sides happy if the Dolphins think they can land the greatest player who's ever lived, even if that player is going to be 46 years old.

          Geno Smith, QB, Seahawks

          Smith's transformation into the new Drew Brees has been nothing short of extraordinary. The league's most accurate passer over the first half of the season has become the heart and soul of the most surprising team in the NFC. His interception rate is likely to rise from its current mark (1.4%), but there's nothing about his accuracy or play that should lead anyone to believe he's going to regress in a major way.

          Assuming Smith keeps this up, he's about to get a massive raise from the $3.5 million deal he inked with Seattle before the season. What will that contract look like? The player who comes to mind is Case Keenum, who was a career backup before riding a brilliant season with the Vikings in 2017 into free agency at age 30. Keenum's two-year, $36 million deal with the Broncos would translate to something like a two-year, $45 million pact after accounting for cap inflation. If the 32-year-old Smith raises his game even further, the Seahawks might have to look at the non-exclusive franchise tag of $31.5 million.

          Davis Mills, QB, Texans

          Mills' first full season as a starter hasn't been quite as impressive as his 2021 run. After nine weeks, his 32.8 QBR ranks 30th out of 32 qualifying passers, ahead of only Mac Jones and Baker Mayfield. He had an above-average completion percentage as a rookie, but he hasn't approached league-average in any category this season. Instead of building on his strong end, Mills has declined this year by most available metrics.

          Quarterbacks without first-round pedigrees rarely get the sort of runway he has had in Houston. With Deshaun Watson away from the team in 2021, Mills made 11 starts and is expected to get all of this season to prove he's the long-term quarterback in Houston. If he improves, he might do enough to convince the organization to give him one more shot at the starting job in 2023.

          If Mills struggles, the Texans will likely draft their quarterback of the future in April, pushing him to the bench and a totally different career path. Smith, a second-round pick for the Jets, started his first two seasons and then gave way to a veteran in Ryan Fitzpatrick. It took him three teams and six years to get another starting job. Mills could be on that same track with a sour November and December.

          Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams

          I mentioned that many of these players have their legacies or possible future earnings on the line. Stafford has neither, having won a Super Bowl and signed a significant extension before the season. Instead, he might be playing to keep his franchise from rebuilding. The 3-5 Rams are a mess. While he hasn't been given the gift of a running game or a healthy offensive line, Los Angeles ranks 29th in points per game and 26th in offensive DVOA. The defending champs have been brutal to watch.

          What happens next could be fascinating. The Rams are in rough cap shape and don't have their 2023 first-round pick, which is going to the Lions as the final element of the Stafford deal. They tried to use multiple first-rounders to acquire Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns, only to be rebuffed by Carolina.

          Coach Sean McVay and defensive tackle Aaron Donald were both rumored to be considering retirement after last season. Donald signed a new deal, and while McVay did the same, there have been long-standing rumblings about his interest in moving into a media opportunity. If McVay feels like the Rams have been to the top of the mountain and aren't getting back soon, will he stay? Stafford is the player best-positioned to keep his coach in the building for years to come.

          Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers

          First, it looked like Garoppolo was going to be traded. Then, he was supposed to back up Trey Lance. After five quarters of football and a season-ending ankle injury to Lance, plans changed. Garoppolo is back in the starting role, and he's doing what he usually does. It hasn't always been pretty -- and he has gotten plenty of help from his playmakers -- but the 31-year-old is posting solid efficiency numbers and producing a winning record (4-3 in the seven games he has played).

          Crucially, Garoppolo has also stayed healthy, which has both saved the 49ers season and opened up possibilities for him in free agency. If he suffers a serious injury, the Niners are probably going to be out of the playoff picture, given that Brock Purdy likely would take over as their quarterback. Garoppolo probably would be looking at a one-year deal or a contract with limited guarantees upfront in free agency.

          If he continues to stay healthy and produce, though, there will be an offseason market. It'll be easy for general managers to unload Garoppolo, who has gone 34-17 as a starter with the 49ers, to their owners. It would be naive to pretend he's the driving force of the offense or doesn't have his limitations, but there are too many desperate teams in need of a solid quarterback. Without any franchise tag or draft capital required to pry him away from the 49ers, he could see more money than most fans would expect.

          Of course, if Garoppolo plays really well, the 49ers might not let him leave. Lance was drafted to be the future, but if the organization has soured after two seasons, it could trade him, recoup some of the draft picks used to acquire him and re-sign Garoppolo to a new deal. A lot of NFL dominoes in 2023 ride on what happens with Garoppolo over the next two months.

          Daniel Jones, QB, Giants

          The Giants shocked the league by winning six of their first seven games, and as they come off of their bye, Jones has been part of the solution. He ranks 13th in QBR, and while he's only averaging 6.4 yards per attempt, he has done two things at a high level. He has turned the ball over only four times in eight games, and with 22.4 rushing expected points added (EPA), he has been the league's fourth-most productive runner.

          Has Jones done enough to earn another season as the Giants starter? The team declined his fifth-year option before the season, so he could hit unrestricted free agency this offseason if general manager Joe Schoen doesn't apply a $31.5 million franchise tag or sign him to a new deal. I would predict the Giants are expected to go into 2023 with a new quarterback, but if Jones helps push Big Blue to just their second postseason appearance of the last decade, would they really let him walk out the door? And what would his market look like if he leaves?

          Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles

          At this point for Hurts, it's really just about staying healthy. He has continued to flourish in Nick Sirianni's offense, leading the Eagles to an undefeated record through the first eight games of the season. Any doubters wondering whether Hurts should be Philadelphia's quarterback of the future have been silenced.

          This is Hurts' team, and even though Philadelphia has two first-round picks in 2023, he's not going anywhere. As long as he doesn't suffer a long-term injury over the next two months, he's going to get a massive deal this offseason.

          Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers

          Brady isn't what ails the Buccaneers, but despite a vintage final drive in Sunday's comeback win over the Rams, it doesn't look like he's going to be singlehandedly capable of fixing things. The offensive line is a mess, the running game is nonexistent and the problems with drops and miscommunication in the passing game seem to be a weekly concern. Brady looks fine, but the offense does not.

          I strongly suspect he doesn't want his final image as an NFL quarterback to be at the helm of an eight- or nine-win Buccaneers team. As a pending free agent, though, what will he show over the rest of the season to convince teams to move forward with a 46-year-old quarterback? Last time around, when he was surrounded by a limited Patriots offense, there was a surprising lack of interest as he hit free agency. The Bucs pounced and proceeded to win a Super Bowl.

          Assuming the Dolphins move forward with Tagovailoa as their starter and the 49ers don't give up on Lance, the two most popular destinations for Brady rumors appear to be off the books. He could continue with the Bucs, but if he wants to go somewhere else before retiring, his options might depend upon how both he and his team look over the next two months.

          D'Andre Swift, RB, Lions

          Every time Swift touches the ball, magic seems to happen. His dynamic ability as a runner and receiver draws fair comparisons to Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey. The difference? Both of those guys stayed healthy during their first three seasons in the league. McCaffrey didn't miss a single game, while Kamara was sidelined for just three. Each player earned a massive extension from their teams before Year 4.

          Swift already has missed 10 games since the 2020 season, and while the Lions welcomed him back into their lineup after he missed three contests, coach Dan Campbell already has suggested he's playing at less than 100%. Swift played just 10 snaps in Sunday's win over the Packers, turning two of his five touches into first downs. Swift has the upside of producing like either of those star players for a Detroit team in desperate need of playmakers. He just has to stay on the field.

          Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers

          McCaffrey is off to a hot start with the 49ers after his October trade from the Panthers. After getting a full week to learn the playbook, he racked up 149 yards from scrimmage and scored passing, rushing and receiving touchdowns in the win over the Rams. With a bye week to rest and study up further, he should be an even bigger part of the offense as San Francisco's season goes along.

          You know what's coming next: "As long as he stays healthy" is a phrase we've had to attach to McCaffrey over the last few years, and his future depends on what happens over the remainder of the season. If he stays on the field and continues to produce at this level, the Niners likely will move forward with his current deal, which pays him $12 million in 2023.

          If McCaffrey gets hurt, things become complicated. The 49ers could ask him to take a pay cut, which might lead to a contract impasse and a quick end to his time in the Bay Area. He would be unlikely to see the same sort of deal in free agency, which might encourage him to take that pay cut.

          Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys

          It's clear the Cowboys don't believe Pollard is capable of being the featured back in their offense. Team owner Jerry Jones repeatedly has tied Dallas' success to the way Ezekiel Elliott performs. Cowboys running backs coach Skip Peete suggested Pollard isn't as fast after his 30th snap in games, despite the fact he has been extremely productive in those moments when given the opportunity:

          Given the lead role with Elliott out in Week 8, Pollard went for 131 yards and scored three touchdowns in a win over the Bears. He likely will move back into a timeshare role once Elliott's ready to return, but if he stays healthy and continues to produce, some enterprising team is going to see a veteran back with a track record of success and limited tread on his tires hitting free agency.

          Gabe Davis, WR, Bills

          Davis, who moved into the No. 2 role in the league's most explosive passing offense this season, was expected to build on his four-touchdown game in the AFC divisional round. He leads the league in yards per reception at 25.1 and is scoring once every 4.5 receptions, but he has just 18 catches across seven games.

          Davis is still averaging a respectable 1.7 yards per route run, but he's only catching passes on 6.9% of his routes, which ranks last in the NFL among 75 qualifying wideouts. The 23-year-old becomes eligible for an extension this offseason, but in a league in which No. 2 wideouts typically are topping $15 million per year on a new deal, it would take a molten second half for him to earn a significant new deal from the Bills. The concerns about quarterback Josh Allen's elbow won't help his chances.

          Chase Claypool, WR, Bears

          Claypool, acquired for a second-round pick at the trade deadline, will be expected to take advantage of teams focused on quarterback Justin Fields' legs and serve as a vertical threat for the Bears. Claypool managed just 13 yards on six targets in his debut against the Cowboys, but his role should increase as he grows more familiar with the playbook.

          Bears general manager Ryan Poles sent the team's own second-round pick to the Steelers for Claypool, suggesting he sees the 24-year-old as a building block for the future. The question is whether Poles will back up that view with a new deal.

          Claypool becomes eligible for an extension this offseason and is set to make $1.5 million in 2023. The Bears will have plenty of cap space next offseason, but if he doesn't prove himself as the player they're hoping he'll become by the end of 2022, will the team wait and see on his extension?

          JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Chiefs

          As the season goes on, Smith-Schuster is becoming an essential part of the Kansas City offense. Over the past four weeks, he ranks 11th in yards per route run (2.5) and fourth among wideouts in average yards after catch (7.9). His back-to-back 100-yard games in October were the first time he has posted consecutive triple-digit receiving totals since that fateful 2018 season when he finished with 1,426 receiving yards and seven scores.

          Smith-Schuster is a free agent after the season, and after signing consecutive one-year deals, he should have a much larger market this time. The Chiefs just traded for Kadarius Toney and have a 2022 second-round pick on the books in Skyy Moore, but Travis Kelce is going to get old eventually, and the organization can get out of the Marquez Valdes-Scantling contract in 2023.

          Kansas City revitalized Smith-Schuster's career, but if he keeps up his recent level of play over the remainder of the season, could he end up being too expensive to stay in Kansas City?

          Allen Lazard, WR, Packers

          If anybody was ever set up for a monster season, it was Lazard. The Packers traded away Davante Adams and replaced him with Sammy Watkins and a couple of midround picks. Lazard seemed to be the only receiver quarterback Aaron Rodgers trusted. Given how impressive the Packers offense had been during Rodgers' back-to-back MVP campaigns, it seemed he was in the position to become the next in a series of homegrown star wide receivers for them.

          You know what has happened. The Packers offense is far from impressive. Lazard has struggled with injuries, and while he has improved from 74th in yards per route run among wide receivers a year ago to 31st, it would be tough to say he looks like a No. 1 wide receiver to Green Bay fans.

          Lazard hits unrestricted free agency for the first time this offseason, and the second half of the season should determine what his deal looks like. If he posts middling numbers, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Packers bring Lazard back for modest money. If he does have that breakout, teams might take advantage of a cap-strapped organization and pay him to head elsewhere. Normally, I would say a team wouldn't typically let their top wideout leave without a replacement, but these are the Packers.

          Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Free agent

          Has anybody made more money by not playing? Each week, struggling offenses across the NFL seem to get more and more desperate to add the 30-year-old Beckham, who could return soon from the torn ACL he suffered during the Super Bowl. As many as eight teams could make a credible argument for signing Beckham to improve their chances of competing this season.

          The hope from Beckham's camp is identical to what we saw when he left the Browns a year ago: Land in a good situation, play well and earn a significant new deal in free agency. He pulled off steps one and two, but the knee injury cost him that contract. Now, having recovered, Beckham is in a position to flip a playoff race or help push a team toward the Super Bowl for the second consecutive season. If he can stay healthy, he's still young and effective enough to earn a meaningful deal as a free agent.

          Dalton Schultz, TE, Cowboys

          After a breakout 2021 season, Schultz has struggled to make the same impact. He has just 203 receiving yards through the first nine weeks, as a PCL injury has slowed him down. After scoring eight times a year ago, he has yet to find the end zone.

          The Cowboys are about to hand out big extensions to wideout CeeDee Lamb, cornerback Trevon Diggs and linebacker Micah Parsons over the next two offseasons, so they need to be smart with planning their major investments around that core.

          If Schultz continues to struggle, the Cowboys would likely be inclined to either re-sign him to a one-year deal for less money than what he's making this year, or let the 26-year-old leave in free agency. If he looks more like the difference-maker he was in 2021, they might instead try to keep their cap in shape by giving him a long-term deal.

          Isaiah Wynn, OT, Patriots

          Wynn, once one of the league's more promising tackle prospects, has struggled to stay healthy and fallen out of favor with the Patriots. He has looked physically overmatched at times this season, and the Patriots have benched the 2018 first-round pick for stretches. He had lost his starting job to Marcus Cannon, but with the 34-year-old hitting injured reserve this week, he should be restored back to his prior spot at right tackle.

          It seems unlikely the Patriots will re-sign Wynn after the season. Although 27-year-olds with significant experience at left tackle rarely hit the market, if he can put together a solid half-season of football on the right side to finish his time in New England, there should be meaningful interest in free agency from a league perpetually desperate for offensive tackles. If he continues to play the way he did during the first half of 2022, though, he's likely going to be stuck settling for a one-year deal.

          Marcus Davenport, EDGE, Saints

          The Saints traded two first-round picks to move up and draft Davenport in 2018, a move that has not aged well. (The Packers traded out of that pick and then back up again to select cornerback Jaire Alexander). He has flashed promise but has yet to play more than 13 games in a season. He set a career-high with nine sacks last season, but he has just a half-sack and five knockdowns in nine games as part of the edge rotation in 2020.

          Davenport is playing out his fifth-year option, which the Saints were forced to restructure for cap purposes. They'll owe $7.6 million in dead money on their 2023 cap for the 26-year-old and likely move forward with Cameron Jordan and Payton Turner as their starting edge rushers. Davenport can play, but while he might have seemed on track for a significant deal to start elsewhere a year ago, he likely is looking at a rotation job elsewhere in 2023 unless the sacks start flowing.

          Isaiah Simmons, LB, Cardinals

          For every step forward Simmons has taken, there has been a step backward. After struggling to earn playing time during the first half of his rookie 2020 season, he found a more regular role last season. The Cardinals then benched him after a disastrous start to the 2022 season against the Chiefs, only to restore him to the lineup in Week 4. He has been all over the place over the last month, with two pass breakups against the Seahawks, a pick-six against the Saints, a stripsack against the Vikings and another sack in Sunday's rematch with Seattle.

          Simmons has great physical traits, and there are defensive coordinators around the league who drool at the idea of getting a playmaker with his talent into the lineup. He also gets lost in what isn't always a well-disciplined Cardinals defense. Arizona has to decide on his fifth-year option after the season, and while that seemed unlikely after that rough start to 2022, he seems on track to earn the guarantee now.

          With the Cardinals investing in the No. 8 overall pick ahead of players such as offensive tackle Jedrick Wills, cornerback A.J. Terrell and wideout CeeDee Lamb, they have every motivation to treat Simmons like a successful draft pick.

          C.J. Gardner-Johnson, S, Eagles

          The Eagles traded for Gardner-Johnson just before the season after the Saints weren't able to come to terms on a contract extension with their slot cornerback. Philly moved the league's top agitator to safety, and you can't argue with the results. He is tied for the league-lead with five interceptions, matching his career total from his first three seasons.

          Cornerbacks get paid more than safeties, but top-tier safeties get paid a lot more than the league's best slot cornerbacks. Gardner-Johnson is likely going to end up making his first trip to the Pro Bowl, and he's an unrestricted free agent after the season. Will the Eagles use their franchise tag to keep him? Or, in an offseason where they'll need to give Jalen Hurts a massive extension and rebuild the depth on their vaunted defensive line, will general manager Howie Roseman pay Gardner-Johnson $15 million per year on a new deal?

          Byron Jones, CB, Dolphins

          A prized free-agent addition when the Dolphins signed him away from the Cowboys in 2020, Jones' time in Miami hasn't lived up to expectations. He was inconsistent in his first two seasons and has been sidelined by an ankle injury in Year 3. The Dolphins were optimistic Jones would be ready to play by Week 1 after undergoing ankle surgery, but he hasn't yet returned to practice.

          I would be surprised if Jones was back in a Dolphins uniform in 2023; the team can save $14.1 million in cap space by designating him as a post-June 1 release. If he can make it back on the field and play well before the end of the season, though, it should help his market in free agency. If he misses the entire season, he's likely looking at a one-year deal on the open market.

          Greg Roman, Ravens offensive coordinator

          The Ravens keep kicking on. Despite enduring significant stretches with Devin Duvernay as their top wide receiver and Kenyan Drake as their No. 1 running back, they rank third in offensive DVOA. Much of that is rightfully chalked up to the brilliant play of Lamar Jackson, but Roman's offense clearly creates more opportunities than some Baltimore fans might believe.

          Those same fans will likely point to the limits we've seen the Ravens offense hit in the postseason. They have scored 13 points per game in Jackson's four playoff contests, going 1-3. They can look great during the regular season, but if they bow out meekly in January for the fourth time in five years, something is going to change. You can decide whether that's more likely to involve moving on from Jackson or Roman.

          Matt Canada, Steelers offensive coordinator

          No Steelers offensive coordinator is ever popular, but Canada's offense has seemed particularly grating toward Yinzers. Pittsburgh doesn't have much of an offensive line and inserted rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett into the starting job earlier than they would have liked, but the Steelers rank 25th in offensive DVOA.

          Without Ben Roethlisberger or Mitch Trubisky to blame, the next fall man appears to be Canada. It will likely take some significant development from Pickett over the second half for Canada to stay in this role next season.

          Adam Stenavich, Packers offensive coordinator

          Stenavich is a first-year offensive coordinator, having been promoted after the departures of Nathaniel Hackett and Luke Getsy. Hackett wanted to interview him to take the offensive coordinator spot in Denver, leading the Packers to give him that role. He isn't the team's primary playcaller, but he does serve as the run-game coordinator, and Green Bay's rushing attack has taken a step backward this season.

          It's not really fair to blame Stenavich for what has gone wrong in Green Bay, and I'm not sure removing him from the coordinator role would solve the team's problems. After the brain drain last offseason and the current offensive struggles, though, I wouldn't be surprised if they added a more experienced voice to the mix. Expanding the role of quarterbacks coach Tom Clements, who was once the offensive coordinator for the Packers, could also be in play.

          Byron Leftwich, Buccaneers offensive coordinator

          Leftwich's offenses have looked great when Bruce Arians has been in the mix, but things haven't gone well after Arians' departure. When Leftwich took over the primary offensive coaching role in Arizona in 2018, the Cardinals finished last in offensive DVOA. You could have chalked that up to playing Josh Rosen at quarterback, but that's a tougher argument with Tom Brady in the mix this season. The Bucs led the league in offensive DVOA a year ago, but they've fallen to 17th in 2022.

          It would be unfair to blame Leftwich for the offensive line injuries or the retirement of stars Rob Gronkowski and Ali Marpet. Changes in personnel have undoubtedly hurt the Buccaneers. Given how often veterans such as Brady and Mike Evans appear to be on different pages -- and how often the Bucs seem to settle into predictable, ineffective run calls -- he is going to bear some responsibility for the issues involved. It was realistic to expect him to become a head coach after his most recent run with Arians in Tampa Bay. Now, with his offense struggling, that path seems further away.

          Ejiro Evero, Broncos defensive coordinator

          While the Denver offense has been dire this season, the defense has been stellar. Cornerback Pat Surtain II & Co. rank among the league leaders in most categories, and they're doing it with a first-time coordinator in the 41-year-old Evero, who was most recently the secondary coach with the Rams.

          Teams typically prefer hiring offensive coordinators as head coaches, but of the three best head coach hires of the last 25 years, two (Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin) came from the defensive side of the ball. It might seem too soon for him to go from first-year coordinator to a head coaching job, but that's the same path Brandon Staley took before joining the Chargers. Frankly, if they're worried about losing him to a head coaching gig somewhere else, I wonder whether the Broncos would promote Evero to their own top job.

          Nathaniel Hackett, Broncos coach

          It's hard to point to many elements of the Hackett experience in Denver as evidence he's the right person for this job. The disastrous fourth-down and late-game decision-making we saw in September has mostly faded away, but the Broncos subsequently endured a four-game losing streak before a comeback win in London over the Jaguars. Hackett's offense has averaged a little over 15 points per game, the third-worst mark in the league.

          The bye week came at an opportune time. Quarterback Russell Wilson got a much-needed week of rest to heal his various injuries, and Hackett should have been able to take the bye to try to squeeze something more out of what was supposed to be a vibrant passing attack. With Wilson under contract through 2028, he's not going to be the one going anywhere if the Broncos fail to figure this out. A return to the Packers as an assistant might be the best solution for all parties involved.

          Josh McDaniels, Raiders coach

          Hackett isn't the only first-year coach on the hot seat in the AFC West. Before the season, when I wrote about McDaniels having so much riding on this season and his tenure with the Raiders, I noted that the team operates by different rules than every other NFL franchise. I expected the Raiders to decline, but I didn't think they would start 2-6. Vegas has been unlucky, going 0-5 in one-score games after posting a 7-2 mark in those same games last season. McDaniels has understandably taken some heat after the team blew its third double-digit lead of the season in Sunday's loss at the Jaguars.

          Part of life is setting expectations appropriately, and I wonder if this is where McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler have gone wrong. If the Raiders had finished 7-10 last season, hired him and announced that they were going to spend a year or two rebuilding the roster, a 2-6 start wouldn't be a big deal. Instead, after inheriting a playoff team built on a series of close victories over a backup or COVID-impacted quarterbacks, he traded first- and second-round picks for wideout Davante Adams. Adams hasn't been the problem with the Raiders, but he also hasn't been the solution to their many issues.

          The last time the Raiders took this sort of step backward was 2017, when they similarly regressed past the mean in terms of win-loss record in close games. Team owner Mark Davis fired coach Jack Del Rio and general manager Reggie McKenzie and hired Jon Gruden. If they continue to flail at the bottom of the AFC West, it would be a surprise if Davis didn't make some sort of significant change.

          Kliff Kingsbury, Cardinals coach

          There aren't many coaches who sign a five-year extension and get fired before the new deal even kicks in, but that's how dreadful things have gotten in Arizona. Kingsbury, general manager Steve Keim and star quarterback Kyler Murray all signed contract extensions in the offseason. Murray's not going anywhere for cap reasons, and Keim has been a part of the organization for more than two decades.

          If the team was thriving on offense and struggling on defense, the story might be different. As it is though, Kingsbury's offense ranks 30th in the league in DVOA. Its success on a week-to-week basis seems almost entirely dependent upon improvisation by Murray and work after the catch by their receivers. Even worse, this rough patch has come during the first half of the season, when his offense typically plays its best football. If the return of wideout DeAndre Hopkins doesn't spark a second-half turnaround, there are serious questions about what the Cardinals will do in 2023.

          Mike McCarthy, Cowboys coach

          If you just look at the win-loss record, it would be crazy to suggest McCarthy would need to worry about his future. After inheriting a team that went 8-8 in 2019, McCarthy went 6-10 in 2020 during a season without quarterback Dak Prescott for most of the campaign. Since then, he has gone 18-7, tying him with Andy Reid for most wins over that timeframe.

          The Cowboys are not a normal franchise, and I don't think anyone thinks McCarthy actually is being judged by his win-loss record in the regular season. Dallas was meekly dismissed at home by the 49ers in the playoffs last season, and while it has a 99.6% chance of returning to the postseason per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Eagles stand in their way of hosting another game in January.

          If the Cowboys are one-and-done again in the postseason, nobody's going to be happy. Team owner Jerry Jones was remarkably patient with former coach Jason Garrett, but that was in an era when Sean Payton wasn't available. If the former Saints coach is ready to return to the league and wants to rejoin an organization he knows well, Jones isn't going to let something as silly as the league's best win-loss record get in the way.

          Chris Ballard, Colts general manager

          At this point, it feels like Ballard is the only person left in the Colts building who knows the WiFi password. Team owner Jim Irsay has benched quarterback Matt Ryan, fired offensive coordinator Marcus Brady and then replaced stalwart coach Frank Reich with ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday. The longtime Colts center is the first person to be hired to run an NFL team without any coaching experience at the college or pro levels since 1961, and he's taking over a team shedding pieces like a spaceship every time they lose.

          It certainly looks like the Colts are tanking for a quarterback in the 2023 draft. Ballard is well-regarded as a scout and talent evaluator, which might make him more essential to that process. Irsay suggested he had no intention of firing Ballard during Monday's press conference for the ages, but he also said he hadn't given any thought to firing Reich as recently as October 30 before doing just that seven days later. Ballard's future might depend upon the performances of two inexperienced components of the organization in Saturday and quarterback Sam Ehlinger.