By the standards of a typical NFL trade deadline, Tuesday was utter chaos. When the dust settled at 4 p.m. ET on Nov. 1, teams had completed 10 deadline-day deals, doubling the prior record from 2018. The big deals seemed to escalate in importance, culminating in the Broncos dealing edge rusher Bradley Chubb to the Dolphins.
Naturally, in the haze of a frantic deadline day, a lot of questions go unanswered and assumptions unchecked. After having 36 hours to digest everything that happened, I want to run through some of those ideas and try to see whether they check out. There's a lot to consider, both about the teams that made moves and the teams that sat out the deadline.
Let's start with the biggest move, where the Dolphins officially marked the end of their rebuild.
Jump to a question:
Why didn't a contender add Claypool?
Why didn't the Packers trade for a receiver?
Why didn't the Texans trade away players?
Are the Dolphins really title contenders?
Should Carolina have dealt its star edge rusher?
What does Minnesota's trade tell us about the NFL?
Are the Dolphins good enough to go all-in?
Kids grow up so fast. A year ago, the Dolphins were 1-7 and wondering whether they needed a rebuild of their rebuild. Now, at 5-3, they're all-in with Tua Tagovailoa to try to win a Super Bowl. The last of the unused first-round picks from the 2019 Laremy Tunsil trade tree is out of the organization, as Miami sent San Francisco's 2023 first-round pick -- acquired in the Niners' move up to select Trey Lance at the 2021 draft -- as the lead asset in a package for Broncos edge rusher Bradley Chubb.
It's not hard to understand why Miami feels like it can be something great. It has won all five of the games Tagovailoa has started and finished this season, scoring an average of 26 points. Mike McDaniel's team gets the Bears, Browns and Texans for its next three games, giving it a reasonable chance of going 8-3. The Dolphins already have beaten the Bills, who sit ahead of them in the AFC East. If Miami beat Buffalo once without Chubb, why can't it do it again with the star pass-rusher?
There's not much of an issue with the Dolphins adding a pass-rusher, either. Through Week 8, they rank 29th in pressure rate (22%) and 25th in sack rate (4.8%). Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are two of the league's best quarterbacks against the blitz, and the Dolphins had the league's worst sack rate when rushing four or fewer. Emmanuel Ogbah has been playing at less than 100% this season and has just one sack, which came in the opener. Jaelan Phillips has flashed moments of brilliance and looks like he's about to break through. And Miami's best pass-rusher at times has been safety Brandon Jones, who tore his ACL two weeks ago.
Meanwhile, Chubb has been playing some of the best football of his career. The No. 4 overall pick in the 2018 draft has 5.5 sacks, eight knockdowns and two forced fumbles through eight games. He ranks third in the NFL in pass rush win rate on the edge this season, trailing only megastars Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. He's on pace for his most productive season since 2018, when he racked up 12 sacks and 21 knockdowns across from Von Miller.
From 2019-2021, Chubb struggled to stay healthy and was not as productive, putting up just 8.5 sacks and 29 knockdowns. He missed nearly as many games (24) as he played (25) over that three-year span, owing to a torn ACL and ankle issues. He spent most of that time playing alongside a superstar in Miller, limiting the amount of double-teams and slide protections he saw.
Chubb will be expected to be that star in Miami. The Dolphins, having traded a first-rounder to acquire him, now have to pay him like he's going to be a true No. 1. (Update: Chubb signed a five-year, $110 million extension on Thursday morning.) He is making $12.7 million on his fifth-year option, of which the Dolphins will owe $7.1 million. In his new deal, the 26-year-old topped the four-year, $94 million deal Maxx Crosby signed with the Raiders this summer, and Miami didn't have much leverage in negotiations.
The Dolphins have other work to do this offseason, given that Tagovailoa will become eligible for an extension. It seemed before the season they might use their haul of 2023 picks to draft a replacement for Tagovailoa, but that's now off the table for multiple reasons. One first-round pick was shipped off to the Broncos, while the other was taken away by the league as a result of the Stephen Ross tampering investigation. Tagovailoa's excellent play when healthy also has made it more likely that the Dolphins stick with him beyond 2022.
If they extend Tagovailoa, how much more can they realistically add to their roster? They just gave Tyreek Hill a record deal for a wide receiver. Cornerback Xavien Howard's contract was ripped up and re-done in April. Left tackle Terron Armstead is on a five-year, $75 million deal. Ogbah is just starting a four-year, $65.3 million extension. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dolphins move on from corner Byron Jones after this season, but they'll owe new deals to receiver Jaylen Waddle and safety Jevon Holland after 2023. There's nothing wrong with signing good players to significant contracts, but they might not have a lot of wriggle room left after next offseason.
If this is it in terms of adding significant core players, has Miami done enough to credibly compete with the Bills and Chiefs atop the AFC? I'm not sure. The Bills were without their entire starting secondary for that Dolphins game in Week 3 and still limited Miami to 21 points. Two of the Dolphins' touchdowns in that game came from running back Chase Edmonds, who was dumped on the Broncos as part of this deal. (Miami also sent a fifth-round pick to San Francisco for pending free agent Jeff Wilson Jr., who knows McDaniel's system, but it's difficult to imagine that there was a huge market for Wilson given the variety of running backs reportedly available.)
Miami is 12th in overall DVOA. It would likely be higher if we included only the games in which Tagovailoa was at quarterback, but most of the team's issues have been on defense, where it ranks 25th in DVOA. The Bills and Chiefs are first and fifth, respectively.
I think it would take just about everything to go right -- including Chubb and Tagovailoa both staying healthy and continuing to play at a Pro Bowl level -- for the Dolphins to ride this trade to a conference title. Counting on everything to go right is usually a good way to end up disappointed, but I can understand why they are taking a leap of faith.
Why didn't a contending team outbid the Bears for Chase Claypool?
I don't think it was a surprise to see the Steelers trade Claypool after seeing the third-year receiver's development stall, but I wasn't expecting the team on the other side of the deal to be the 3-5 Bears. After shipping out defensive stalwarts Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, Chicago sent its own second-round pick to Pittsburgh to acquire Claypool.
On some level, this deal makes sense for the Bears. They clearly need help at receiver, where they have given significant snaps to replacement-level players such as Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis and N'Keal Harry. The deal isn't likely to turn them into 2022 contenders, but the 24-year-old Claypool can grow alongside second-year quarterback Justin Fields. As they evaluate a quarterback who was drafted by the previous coach and general manager, Claypool gives Fields a better chance of turning into a star.
Claypool is also two years removed from his 2020 rookie season in which he looked like a possible superstar, putting up 873 yards and nine touchdowns. His efficiency has dropped. His yards per route run have fallen from 2.1 as a rookie to 1.7 last season and just 1.1 in 2022, with the latter figure ranking 69th out of 88 qualifying receivers. If the concern is that he was held back by a dismal offensive line preventing his offense from throwing downfield, well, that's not going to change in Chicago.
As a third-year player, Claypool is going to be eligible for an extension after this season. He's a free agent after 2023, in a market where wide receivers are more expensive than ever. The Bears made the sort of trade that implies a belief he is going to be a star. It's easy to see a scenario in which they pay him like the wideout they hope he'll be as opposed to one he's likeliest to become.
We don't know how they feel about the 2023 draft class, but it's also possible the Bears could have landed a better receiver with their second-round pick in April's draft and paid him much less than they'll likely pay Claypool over the next four seasons. As it is, the Bears will move forward with Claypool and likely re-sign Darnell Mooney, their other top wideout, to a new deal this offseason.
I laid out the argument for Pittsburgh moving Claypool in October, though I suggested a more logical fit would be with the Packers. The Steelers are 2-6 and out of the playoff picture. They just re-signed Diontae Johnson and have a pair of promising pass-catchers on rookie deals in tight end Pat Freiermuth and first-year receiver George Pickens. They might also be the best organization when it comes to spotting receiver talent in the middle rounds, as they did when they took Claypool with the 49th selection of the 2020 draft.
What the Bears paid, though, tells us why Claypool ended up at Soldier Field. Chicago's 2023 pick currently stands as the No. 44 overall selection in the draft, but ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projects it to end up at No. 38. Given that the Bears just traded away their two best defenders for draft picks, it would hardly be a surprise if they struggled during the second half of the season. If the Steelers projected that pick to come in around No. 38, which competitive team was going to top that offer?
The only team in the playoff hunt with a better second-round selection would be the Seahawks, who have Denver's second-rounder, but they don't need a wide receiver. The Browns might be on the postseason fringe, but they aren't in a position to trade away draft picks, and the Steelers probably preferred to trade Claypool outside the AFC North.
No team would have been willing to give up a first-round pick for Claypool, nor should they have been. It's possible a team could have offered a later second-round pick and an additional selection -- if the Packers offered second- and fourth-round picks, for example -- but the Steelers might well have preferred the best possible selection.
Why didn't the Packers trade for a receiver?
It's time to answer everybody's favorite deadline question. The Packers reportedly were interested in Claypool before being outbid by their division rivals. With $7.5 million in cap space and all of their picks coming before the sixth round, they had resources to add an option at receiver.
They also appeared to have a reason to think something was wrong. The previous three seasons, general manager Brian Gutekunst and the Packers' front office could point to the results as evidence that they didn't need receiver help. Green Bay went 13-3, 13-3 and 13-4 over those seasons. Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVP awards in 2020 and 2021. On paper it might have seemed like the Packers needed more, but in practice, they were one of the league's best teams.
This year is different. The Packers traded Davante Adams and lost Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, and then replaced them with the trio of Sammy Watkins, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. The latter is the only one who has made any impact this season, but it's clear the rookie fourth-rounder isn't ready to be the team's No. 1 wideout. Randall Cobb is on injured reserve. Allen Lazard -- who is also hurt -- hasn't been a No. 1 as a pro before and hasn't looked like a high-volume target when healthy this season.
On top of that, Green Bay isn't winning. It has lost four straight and fallen 3.5 games behind the Vikings in the NFC North. The offense ranks 22nd in expected points added (EPA) per play and 26th in points per drive. It's one thing to lose to the Bills, but the Packers have lost to the Giants, Jets and Commanders, with the latter starting backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke. For a team with a 38-year-old quarterback who has made public overtures toward a life outside of football, alarm bells should be going off.
And yet, the Packers stayed put. They didn't get a deal done for Denver's Jerry Jeudy or KJ Hamler. The Panthers reportedly weren't interested in trading DJ Moore. Green Bay didn't top the offer the Chiefs sent to the Giants for Kadarius Toney. The Jets didn't seem desperate to honor Elijah Moore's trade request. With Claypool off the table, the Packers might not have seen a receiver they loved.
Isn't there someone, though, who would have given them another pass-game option? The Patriots could have unloaded Nelson Agholor or Kendrick Bourne. The Dolphins have barely used free-agent addition Cedrick Wilson Jr. The Texans reportedly considered trading Brandin Cooks, and while his $18 million guaranteed salary in 2023 might have been a tough squeeze for the Packers, what alternative do they have outside of next year's draft?
If anything, not making a deadline move makes it seem like the Packers don't think a wide receiver can get them back into contention. ESPN's FPI thinks Green Bay has a 38.6% chance of advancing to the postseason and only a 1.2% chance of winning a Super Bowl, down from a league-high 14.2% before the season. It would be foolish to count them out altogether. It's possible they land free agent Odell Beckham Jr., whose price should get higher each week as the Packers and Rams get more desperate. As constructed, though, it sure looks like the Packers needed to do something this week.
Why didn't the Texans trade away players?
Houston general manager Nick Caserio's strategy over the past two seasons has been to fill out his roster by adding veterans on short-term deals. It has helped the Texans play more professional football, but it hasn't resulted in victories. They went 4-13 under David Culley a year ago, and as they hit the trade deadline this season, Lovie Smith's Texans are 1-5-1. With Deshaun Watson unloaded to Cleveland and Davis Mills struggling as the starting quarterback, it seems likely the Texans will be drafting a new quarterback next offseason.
Until then, however, why did the Texans let the deadline come and go without trading some of their veterans? Cooks was the most prominent player of the bunch, but Houston wasn't able to find a trade partner willing to send it a meaningful pick and pay Cooks his $18 million guarantee in 2023 -- news Cooks didn't appear to take well.
Maybe the Texans thought they could get more for Cooks this offseason, when teams will have more cap space. Fine. But what about the other players on their roster? Are they really going to be better off in the long-term with 34-year-old Jerry Hughes, who has five sacks in seven games, as opposed to a draft pick? Mario Addison, his former Bills teammate, is 35. What about Desmond King II, who has been moved into the slot this season and acquitted himself well? Are these guys really going to be around on the next great Houston team?
No, the Texans shouldn't be acquiring veterans just so they can trade them for draft picks. And it's possible Hughes, who grew up in the suburbs of Houston, wants to finish out his career near his home. There's nothing wrong with doing that. But I find it hard to believe there is no player on this roster who could have netted the organization a draft pick.
What does the T.J. Hockenson trade tell us about the Vikings (and the NFL)?
No team that is a virtual lock to make it to the postseason is flying quite as under the radar as the 6-1 Vikings. They haven't been dominant -- each of their five wins during this streak have been decided by eight points or fewer -- but their success and the combined 7-16 record of the other three teams in the North have Kevin O'Connell's team positioned to host multiple playoff games. The Vikings have a 96.1% chance of making it to the postseason and a 63.9% chance of finishing as one of the top two seeds in the NFC, per ESPN's FPI.
Tight end suddenly became a need for the Vikings after Irv Smith Jr. went down with a high-ankle sprain -- he's expected to miss at least eight weeks -- so it was no surprise that general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah went into the trade market for a replacement. Making a significant investment, though, was surprising. The Vikings sent a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third-rounder to the Lions for Hockenson, a 2023 fourth-round pick and a 2024 conditional fourth-rounder.
Let's start with the picks. Using the Chase Stuart chart, we can estimate how valuable the two hauls were in either direction. We know the Lions are going to be picking near the top of the 2023 draft, but I'm treating the two teams' draft order in 2024 as roughly equivalent to one another since projecting a year out is unrealistic. These two general managers both also are likely to be in place in 2024, and they each have a 2024 pick going in either direction, so I don't think we need to be too concerned about the time value of the selections.
I'd estimate the Vikings traded the equivalent of a late third-round selection (around pick No. 91) to the Lions to get Hockenson. If that doesn't seem like a lot, keep in mind the Vikings are sending a pick likely to fall at the bottom of the second round while picking up a fourth-rounder that should be one of the first off the board.
Minnesota is picking up a 25-year-old Hockenson, who is under contract for $536,000 across the rest of 2022 and a $9.3 million fifth-year option in 2023. The latter is fully guaranteed, so the Vikings should have their new tight end under contract for at least a season and a half, though I suspect they'll talk about an extension before then. In fact, I suspect it's one of the reasons why they made this trade.
The drastic rise at the top of the wide receiver market last offseason increased the pay gap between wide receivers and tight ends. I typically use the value of a contract over its first three seasons to estimate how much a deal is really worth for a player and a team. The top 20 wide receiver deals pay $57.3 million over their first three seasons, while the top 20 tight end deals average just $29.3 million over that window.
Obviously, teams need more wide receivers than tight ends, but even the true top-end deals for tight ends are well short of the wideout market. Mark Andrews' four-year, $56 million extension in September 2021 pays him an average of $14 million per year over its first three seasons. The most comparable contracts for Andrews at wide receiver are the free-agent pacts inked by Allen Robinson II (three years, $46.5 million) and Corey Davis (three years, $37.5 million). Obviously, Andrews is a different class of player than those two veteran wideouts. George Kittle's extension, signed a month earlier, had even less money in Years 1-3.
The Vikings have a superstar wideout in Justin Jefferson, and they're going to be giving him a massive extension this offseason. In thinking about a second veteran for this offense over the next few years behind Jefferson, it's reasonable to look at a tight end such as Hockenson and wonder whether he's a better option than paying the same price for a less-talented wide receiver.
The move, in context with the Jefferson extension to come, also tells us how the Vikings view their offensive playmakers. Wideout Adam Thielen is 32, and most of his efficiency metrics are down for the third consecutive season. Smith and running back Alexander Mattison are both unrestricted free agents after the season. Dalvin Cook remains productive, but the Vikings can get out of his deal after this season with just $6 million in dead money, and I would wonder whether an analytically inclined front office thinks paying any running back $11 million in 2023 is good business.
I also wonder if this is a move to lock in a second playmaker around Minnesota's next quarterback. Kirk Cousins' deal is tradable after this season, though he has the right to veto any move. A no-trade clause doesn't mean that a trade is impossible; he might very well prefer to head to a team such as the Colts or Giants this offseason if a contract extension is involved. The 34-year-old is an unrestricted free agent after 2023.
It remains to be seen whether the new braintrust values Cousins as anything more than a league-average starter. It's possible the Vikings trade up to grab a rookie quarterback as early as 2023, and adding Hockenson would give them two building blocks for that young, inexpensive starter. Fitting Cousins, Cook, Hockenson and a newly expensive Jefferson under the cap would be a squeeze for the Vikings, who have been hamstrung by Cousins' contract for several seasons.
Of course, Hockenson is a starting-caliber tight end, but I don't think the Lions would have taken him with the No. 8 overall pick in 2019 if they had known this would be the outcome. If he had originally been drafted in the fourth round, we likely would not think of him as much more than a solid player. His receiving production is right in line with Tyler Higbee and Evan Engram since entering the league.
Compared to other tight ends, Hockenson ranked eighth in yards per route run in both 2020 and 2021. That figure has dropped to 13th in 2022, where virtually all of his receiving yardage has come in two games against the Seahawks and Dolphins. Iowa tight ends are almost always solid blockers, but Hockenson was drafted in the top 10 because the Lions thought he could be a difference-maker in the passing game. I don't think defenses treat him as a player who scares them on an every-snap basis -- but perhaps that changes in Minnesota.
Hockenson's disappointing tenure in Detroit might also give teams pause when they think about drafting tight ends in Round 1. Leaving 2021 pick Kyle Pitts out of the equation, the hit rate for tight ends on opening day has not been high. For every successful pick such as Vernon Davis or Greg Olsen, there's usually two or three who failed to develop as expected. Tight end is also a slower-developing position than most others, which can cost teams who grow impatient; while the Bears drafted Olsen, most of his success came with Carolina.
The market dynamics that make veteran tight ends more compelling also make wide receivers more valuable. Since rookie contracts are slotted at the same price regardless of position, the upside of hitting on a receiver is greater than succeeding in drafting a tight end.
Consider this: The Jets took Garrett Wilson at No. 10 in April and will pay him $20.6 million between 2022-25, which is less than what a superstar wideout will get in one season on a new deal, but about a year and a half of most great tight ends. If Wilson emerges as a star, the Jets will make about $60 million or so over what it would have cost to get a similar wide receiver in free agency. If he was equally as impressive but played tight end, the Jets would have earned about only $23 million in surplus value by succeeding with their pick.
Some teams won't think this way, but financially, the case for drafting a wide receiver in the first round has never been clearer. In a league in which the best tight ends are third- (Andrews, Travis Kelce) and fifth-round (Kittle) picks, there likely will be organizations that are more hesitant than ever to go after a tight end on Day 1.
Should the Panthers or Rams have said no to a Brian Burns trade?
It should not be any surprise that the defending champions wanted to make a very Rams trade. After reports by ESPN's Adam Schefter in October that a team had offered two first-round picks to Carolina for edge rusher Brian Burns, there were multiple reports on deadline day that the team in question was the Rams, who had apparently offered even more than those two first-rounders, only to be denied.
This tracks. The Rams love using their first-round picks to acquire young superstars who are still on rookie deals, a tactic which has landed them Brandin Cooks and Jalen Ramsey. They've struggled to find much of a pass rush on the edge after losing Von Miller to the Bills this offseason, and Burns would be an instant difference-maker. He has five sacks and nine knockdowns for the Panthers this season after making it to his first Pro Bowl a year ago.
On that level, this deal is simple. The Rams need an edge rusher. They have first-round picks. The Panthers need first-round picks, especially after trading draft capital away to acquire Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield. Most non-quarterbacks aren't worth two first-round picks, and -- with the 2019 Ramsey deal as a notable exception -- most teams that trade away a star for multiple first-rounders typically come away winning the deal. Easy enough, right?
Not really. To start, the Rams don't have their 2023 first-rounder, which is going to the Lions as part of the Matthew Stafford deal. The Panthers would be accepting first-rounders in 2024 and 2025 for Burns, making those picks less valuable in the eyes of some NFL front offices. A 2025 pick from the Rams might be incredibly valuable if Sean McVay and Aaron Donald are retired, but in the case of Carolina general manager Scott Fitterer, trading Burns for a pick still three years away might ensure that someone else is the one actually making that selection.
On top of that, Burns is only 24 years old. He's still two years away from free agency. Even if the Panthers take three years to get back into playoff contention, he should still be in the prime of his career. We've seen teams such as the Eagles and Giants turn their fate around quicker than it might have seemed after they fired their coaches in 2020 and 2021, respectively. The Panthers might feel like they can contend in a disintegrating NFC South as early as next season if they land the right quarterback and/or right coach this offseason, which would make trading Burns for 2024 and 2025 picks illogical.
There also are reasons to wonder whether this was even a good idea for the Rams. While Los Angeles wants to add another pass-rusher and young star to its core, is it really in position to make another all-in move? At 3-4, the team is off to the worst start of the McVay era. The Rams' offense ranks 23rd in DVOA, and the offensive line has been shredded by injuries. They might have credibly believed they were a quarterback away when they traded for Stafford or one player away when they dealt for Miller last year. It's hard to make that same case now, when ESPN's FPI thinks they have just a 14.5% chance of making it to the postseason.
Even if the Rams don't want to use those 2024 and 2025 first-round picks in the conventional way, there's plenty of other options for what to do with those selections. They could trade down in those drafts for more of the midround picks they love. They could move into the 2023 draft. They could also trade those picks next year as part of smaller deals for players who can help at other positions of need, mostly notably in protecting Stafford.
The Rams might be victims of their own success. After all, no team has been more aggressive in trading picks for players, and after winning a Super Bowl, it's hard to argue any other team in recent memory has gotten better results in making those deals. Lots of deals that don't vaguely resemble the Rams' philosophy get lumped in or justified as copying Los Angeles, but I don't think the Chubb deal happens at the same price today if the Rams hadn't won the Super Bowl with their methodology.
Likewise, having seen the success the Rams have had in these deals, the Panthers might have asked for more for Burns than L.A. would have needed to provide if they were making this same deal for a similar player five years ago. It's hard enough for teams to develop a championship formula. Now, having landed on one, the Rams might not be able to follow the same path to a second championship.