Predicting NFL Week 10 upsets, plus weekly buzz, notes

Is the East the new NFL seat of power? The two strongest divisions of this 2022 NFL season are the AFC East and NFC East, with seven of the eight teams sporting winning records entering Week 10, and all eight harboring realistic playoff hopes in the 14-team postseason field. How many of the East's teams will end up in the playoffs? And if the two divisions beat each other up over the final nine weeks, as expected, will anyone be in an advantageous position to reach Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona, on Feb. 12?

These are among the questions ESPN's NFL Insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler are considering this week, while also touching on the struggles of the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams, the potential next destination for Odell Beckham Jr. and their usual spate of upset picks and fantasy start and sit advice for Week 10.

Jump to:
AFC/NFC East dominance | Packers woes
Rams' troubles | Second-half sleepers | OBJ spots
Upsets | Fantasy start/sit | Fowler notebook

Seven of eight teams in the AFC East and NFC East have winning records. Which of the two divisions ends up with the most playoff teams, and which division do you consider more likely to house the Lombardi Trophy?

Graziano: Writing here on Election Day, I'm voting a split ticket here. I think the AFC East will have more playoff teams, just because I have more questions about the Giants and the Commanders than I do any of the other teams we're talking about. But I think the NFC East is more likely to produce the Super Bowl winner, because I think the Eagles and the Cowboys are both good enough to get there. In the AFC East, I'm sure a healthy Buffalo Bills team is good enough to get there, and I'm starting to believe a little in the Miami Dolphins. But the Josh Allen elbow injury, on top of all of the other injury issues Buffalo has dealt with this year, just make me a little hesitant about the Bills all of a sudden.

Fowler: Get out and vote, Dan ... for the AFC East. That this division is suddenly loaded after two decades of Tom Brady putting everyone else to bed in November is one of the league's great storylines. The Dolphins' winning ways feel less flukish by the week, with Tua Tagovailoa's impressive accuracy and anticipation on display. The Jets might be a year away from true contention, because of youth and injuries, but I've still got them finding a spot in the playoffs. The Patriots aren't going away at 5-4. And the Bills are still, quite clearly, a top-two team alongside the Chiefs. So, despite the NFC East's strong profile, with the Eagles and Cowboys looking like playoff locks and the Giants not far behind, the AFC East's depth wins out here.

What are you hearing about the Packers during their five-game losing streak?

Fowler: That some of the young wide receivers have been painted as scapegoats for the Packers' problems, despite Aaron Rodgers' absence during OTAs, which isn't sitting well with some there. That there's frustration over the defense, particularly on the back end, where communication and game plan issues have persisted. That they are trying to stick together, but a tough schedule coupled with a barrage of injuries makes that near insurmountable. Other than that, everything is great! I don't get the sense Green Bay plans to turn to Jordan Love. There's a very real chance a sub-.500 team sneaks into the NFC playoffs, which provides a glimmer of hope. This is an organization with a great deal of pride. And Rodgers, despite the struggles, is still one of the best passers on the planet. But the Packers will need some old-fashioned luck over the next month to have a chance.

Graziano: Yeah, I think it's pretty bad there. I know they're searching for solutions, but obviously they aren't finding any. Coaches have a really hard time getting on the hot seat there, so I don't think Matt LaFleur is in any danger any time soon, but this is the first real adversity he has faced in Green Bay, and the way he emerges from it will tell us a lot about what kind of coach he is long term. Rodgers obviously isn't going to help matters unless he plays well, which he currently is not. And now the injury bug is biting hard. A defense that was already underperforming just lost one of its best players, Rashan Gary, for the season. A wide receiver corps that was already young and thin is down multiple guys because of injury. The upcoming schedule is a monster. There aren't a lot of signs a turnaround is coming in Green Bay, and you do start to wonder when it might be time to get a look at Jordan Love on the off chance Rodgers decides not to come back in 2023.

On a scale of 1-10, how much trouble are the Rams in, for this season and the future?

Graziano: 412. They are terrible. The offensive line, which seemed to most observers for the past several years like it could fall apart at any moment, has fallen apart and can no longer run block OR pass protect. Matthew Stafford, America's worst commercial actor and most overrated non-Garoppolo quarterback, has exactly one human being on earth to whom he feels OK throwing the ball. In my imagination, Aaron Donald and coach Sean McVay begin each day with a 4:45 a.m. meeting in which they debate who's more sorry they decided not to retire after the Super Bowl. Last January/February was pure lightning in a bottle for a brilliant head coach and playcaller, augmented by the additions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. at just the right time and given an all-time assist by Jaquiski Tartt. The draft pick situation, the offensive line situation and the Stafford situation combine to make the future look even more grim than the present for the Super Bowl champs, who should be really glad they cashed in that run when they had the chance.

Fowler: Whew, that's a flamethrower taken directly to team headquarters, and I agree with most of that, Dan. Watching the Rams, I come to a simple conclusion: Yeah, that looks like a 3-5 team. Here's where I play the other side a bit. The Rams were willing to throw a ton of draft capital at Carolina for defensive end Brian Burns. We're talking multiple first-round picks and more. Now, it's easy to say the Rams treat draft picks like Halloween candy, but in this case it tells me L.A. believed an elite pass-rusher would bring balance to a defense that still has major talent in spots and can help salvage the season. Which also tells me the Rams aren't that far away. Maybe that's naive, because the offensive line is a turnstile and a roster with four stars -- Stafford, Donald, Cooper Kupp and Jalen Ramsey -- isn't nearly enough. I'd rate the Rams' trouble at a 7. At least they have first-round picks in 2024 and 2025!

Name one team from each conference currently outside the top seven that will make the playoffs.

Fowler: Rolling with the Patriots in the AFC. When they don't turn the ball over, they can win low-scoring affairs with an opportunistic defense, their running game and sound Mac Jones decisions. And two 2-6 teams -- Raiders and Steelers -- have enough talent to make a late-season push. In the NFC, I'm still a believer in Atlanta. The way the Falcons compete is infectious. Four of their five losses were by a margin of six points or less. They have chances to win each week.

Graziano: Going to stick with the Bengals in the AFC, as they bounced back nicely from yet another inexplicable loss to the Browns and are still pretty fresh off a Super Bowl run. Every week gets them closer to getting Ja'Marr Chase back, and every win they can bank without him in the lineup is a bonus. In the NFC ... yuck. I guess I'll go with the Saints, though this is a bad week to make this case off their ugly Monday night loss. Their division is terrible (at 3-6, they're only one game out of first place!) and offers them an opportunity to make some hay if they can get everybody healthy.

Sounds like the Cowboys are in on Odell Beckham Jr., but are they the realistic OBJ suitor that needs him the most?

Graziano: I mean, no, obviously. The entire Beckham conversation is happening on the wrong plane of realism. This is a player who tore his ACL for the second time nine months ago, and we talk about him like he's going to be the missing piece to unlock someone's Super Bowl run or take an offense to the next level. He was not that for the Rams last year; Von Miller was. Beckham joined a Rams offense that was already humming, averaged four catches per game during his time in L.A. and was a perfect fit for the specific role they needed. And that was before he tore that ACL for a second time. We have no idea what kind of player he will be coming off this injury, let alone so soon after it. The Cowboys aren't Odell Beckham away from the Super Bowl. The Cowboys are actually fine without him. I think the best thing for Beckham would be to go to a team that doesn't obviously need him, as he did last year, and find a way to thrive in a specific, smaller role. Buffalo and Kansas City still make the most sense to me.

Fowler: Yeah, Beckham is best suited as a complementary piece instead of a savior. Teams truly don't know what he can do yet, though I'm betting on a supreme athlete such as Beckham to overcome knee issues. It's funny, many of the teams implicated for Beckham either have a losing record or already added a key piece (like the Chiefs by trading for Kadarius Toney). The Rams can't look at their current state and say, 'We're one Odell Beckham away.' And Beckham can't look at the Packers and say the same thing. The Bills remain a solid fit, but they are big on chemistry and might not want to disrupt what's working well for them right now. Here's one: the Ravens. This isn't a receiver-friendly offense, but with Rashod Bateman out, Beckham might vibe with a Lamar Jackson connection.

What's your top upset pick for Week 10?

Fowler: Steelers (+2.5) over Saints. Pittsburgh self-scouted during a much-needed bye week, and I believe it will emerge with solutions to struggles on both sides of the ball. Betting big on Mike Tomlin here. The defense gets pass-rusher T.J. Watt and safety Damontae Kazee back from injury, and the acquisition of cornerback William Jackson III gives the Steelers a cover-corner man. Plus, the Saints looked rough on Monday Night Football. I also like the Browns (+3.5) over the Dolphins. Cleveland appears to have figured out its defensive problems.

Graziano: Seahawks (+2.5) over Buccaneers. I think this is one of those games in which the wrong team is favored. I don't see too many ways, if any, in which Tampa Bay has been better than Seattle this year. The Bucs aren't getting a home-field bump, because the game is in Munich. Pete Carroll is fanatic about preparing his team for overseas trips and will take this first-ever Germany trip as an extra challenge to overcome. I think the Seahawks are simply better than the Bucs, who escaped by the skin of their teeth Sunday against a Rams team that isn't on Seattle's level and won't be so fortunate this time.

What's your fantasy football call of the week?

Graziano: I'm firing up any Atlanta Falcons RB I have this week. Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier ... heck, throw Caleb Huntley in there if you're desperate. The Falcons live to run the football, their run game is at full strength and they get a short-week game against a Carolina defense that's allowing the third-most average fantasy points per game to running backs over the past four weeks.

Fowler: Terrace Marshall Jr., Panthers WR. Buried on the bench for over a year, Marshall has received 15 targets over the past two weeks, which he turned into seven catches for 140 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers still believe in his talent as a long-term option.

Let's empty the notebook. What else are you hearing this week?

• Whether serious or not, Josh Allen's elbow injury is casting a pall over the Bills right now. People I've talked to say they don't believe the injury is major but admit the details are still scarce, and it seems like his status this week is up in the air, depending on his practice availability. What we know, per ESPN's Chris Mortensen: The Bills are evaluating Allen for a potential injury to his UCL (ulnar collateral ligament) and related nerves. A right elbow injury to the game's biggest arm has big implications to the Bills' Super Bowl quest. Remember, Allen is a mobile quarterback who stiff-arms with both hands and uses every body part to fight for inches on the field. If that is compromised, the Bills must tweak their offense to protect him.

• I'm told not to be surprised if Tampa Bay running back Rachaad White's workload remains steady or increases. The Bucs know they need to keep defenses honest by running the ball successfully, and with issues along the offensive line, White, a third-round rookie, is nimble enough to make things happen when rushing lanes are not ideal. I'm not sure what that means for Leonard Fournette, who figures to be part of the game plan regardless, but multiple people have told me White will likely play more.

• The Raiders' release of safety Johnathan Abram is another reminder that the new regime is molding this team to a new image. But that doesn't mean GM Dave Ziegler is cleaning house entirely. The Raiders' approach has been to take every player drafted by Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock at face value and see how they fit. Abram was not an ideal fit, and his playing time was dwindling in recent weeks, so when the Raiders couldn't trade him, they released him Tuesday to help him find a new home where he can play more. The same goes for offensive lineman Alex Leatherwood back in the preseason. But the Raiders believe other former first-rounders have potential with the team. The team decided that Clelin Ferrell, the fourth overall pick in 2019, can be a part of the plans and did not aggressively look to deal him at the deadline. And Josh Jacobs is pacing for 1,500 yards, acquitting himself well for the team's long-term plans. -- Jeremy Fowler