Every year, the NFL resets its unpredictability scale to deepen the intrigue.
Last year, that came in the form of extreme parity, with 12 AFC teams winning at least four games by the midway point.
This season, several teams are making us question what we thought we knew about quarterback play.
Three quarterbacks who dominated ESPN's summer poll of league execs, scouts and coaches -- the Green Bay Packers' Aaron Rodgers (No. 1), Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Tom Brady (No. 4) and Los Angeles Rams' Matthew Stafford (No. 6) -- have losing records entering Week 10. Meanwhile, three of the league's top passers -- the Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa (NFL-leading 79.9 QBR), Seattle Seahawks' Geno Smith (68.1) and Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts (63.1) -- did not record a single vote. Yet their teams are a combined 20-6.
Quarterback is still the most essential position, but the notion that every team with playoff aspirations must have a proven, $50-million-per-year passer feels dated. Team football is at the forefront, and defenses have come to play. Points are down leaguewide, with the team average of 21.8 points per game the lowest since 2017 and the second lowest since 2009.
This has created a winning lane for teams with differing approaches. Several offenses heavy with rushing attempts -- the Atlanta Falcons (303), Eagles (276) and New York Giants (263) -- are in the playoff hunt. Teams with revamped defenses such as the New York Jets (6-3) and Dallas Cowboys (6-2) are eyeing high playoff seeds.
Seventeen teams are projected to win between eight and 14.7 games, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The games that will decide those records should be incredibly close. Seventy-nine games have been decided by one score, the most through nine weeks since the 1970 merger, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
There's plenty of time for underachieving teams to pick up steam and salvage the season. Yes, we're talking about the Bucs, Packers and Rams, among others.
What's safe about the NFL? Nothing. To make sense of the second-half playoff picture, we reached out to league execs, scouts and coaches for some old-fashioned forecasting. What will happen in key division races and the tightening wild-card hunts -- and which team will win the Super Bowl?
Jump to a tight playoff race:
AFC North | AFC East | NFC West | NFC East
Ravens 'most consistent' AFC North team
The AFC North usually makes a compelling case for the NFL's best division, but clunky starts from the Cleveland Browns (3-5) and Pittsburgh Steelers (2-6) have quelled the buzz -- and strengthened Baltimore's title aspirations. FPI projects the Ravens (6-3) to win 12 games this season, good for sixth in the NFL.
"I just see them as the most consistent team," an AFC executive said. "Even though they lost [wide receiver Rashod Bateman] to injury, as long as they have a semblance of a vertical threat, they are fine. They aren't built around the receiver position. They are built around Lamar. So as long as the defense stays healthy and he stays healthy they are my favorite."
The Ravens' schedule sets up nicely over the next three weeks, with the Carolina Panthers at home, a trip to the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Denver Broncos at home.
The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the AFC's biggest wild cards because of their ability to "catch fire at any time," said a separate AFC exec, who added "their struggles against elite pass-rushers is going to hurt them in the end."
Bills have company in AFC East
A juicy four-team race is a nice reward after two decades of watching the New England Patriots dominate the division.
Now, as New England sits in last place at a respectable 5-4, anything feels possible. The Buffalo Bills remain the favorite and are a consensus top-three pick for the NFL's best roster.
"[Outside of Buffalo], I think both the Dolphins and Jets get in the playoffs," a high-ranking NFL personnel evaluator said. "Miami has speed to kill and a great system for Tua, who is playing well. Can't take that away from him. He doesn't have the biggest arm, but he's putting the ball where it needs to be."
And what about the Jets, who haven't finished second in the division since 2015 or won the AFC East crown since 2002?
"I said in the preseason that if Zach Wilson plays passable football then that's a playoff roster," an NFC executive said. "And that's showing up. The defense is talented and productive on all three levels, and their rookie draft picks have worked out."
FPI projects the Jets and Dolphins to win 10.2 and 10.1 games, respectively, followed by New England at 8.0 wins.
"The Jets might be a year away from being really good," an NFC personnel director said. "They can win games now but not sure they are contenders yet. Next year, they should be."
Seahawks 'for real' in NFC West
The loss of Russell Wilson was supposed to set the Seahawks back, but those projections proved to be flawed.
Privately, Seattle's front office and coaching staff saw ways to improve, loading up on draft capital to supplement the roster while finding a quarterback who could execute the offense and didn't hold on to the ball too long, a concern the Seahawks had about Wilson.
"Pete [Carroll] and John [Schneider] have done an exceptional job," an AFC executive said. "All of their rookies are contributing, and most of them are playing well, and they are strong in most areas. I see a playoff team."
To be fair, not even Seattle forecast this kind of production from Smith, who's strengthening his MVP campaign with each tight window throw. Smith has thrown for 2,199 yards, completed a league-high 73.1% of his passes with 15 touchdown passes to four interceptions and shows no signs of slowing down.
Seattle ranks 24th in total defense (364.6 yards per game) but has tightened up after a rough start, allowing 18.75 points and 216.5 passing yards per game the past four weeks. Still, evaluators are split between Seattle and the 4-4 San Francisco 49ers winning the division.
"Their firepower on offense might carry them," an AFC scout said of the 49ers. "A healthy Christian McCaffrey changes everything for them and creates even more lanes for Deebo Samuel and George Kittle to operate in the middle of the field."
As for the Rams, evaluators expect them to battle, but "they are really not good right now," the AFC scout said. "They are really having trouble protecting and getting push [up front], and Aaron Donald needs help. That's why they targeted pass-rusher at the trade deadline."
Sizing up Philly vs. Dallas debate
Evaluators consider Cowboys vs. Eagles a close call for NFC East supremacy, despite Philly's two-game lead. But not close enough.
"I see it like this -- I'd take Dallas' defense over Philadelphia, but Philly's overall roster is a bit stronger and should carry them in the later months," an NFL personnel director said. "Dallas has dealt with a lot along its offensive line, whereas Philly is stout there, and they really don't have a glaring weakness on that side of the ball. Dallas could use one more receiver, too."
Enter Odell Beckham Jr., who should be available soon. But it's uncertain whether Dallas would spend the necessary coin required to sign him. Despite Hurts' MVP campaign, questions persist about his ability to get it done in December and January -- largely because he hasn't done it yet, partly because of that ugly playoff loss to Tampa Bay last year. The Bucs forced Hurts to read the whole field, and the Eagles failed to score before the fourth quarter. Some evaluators say making Hurts play from the pocket is still the best way to beat Philly, even though Hurts has improved his completion percentages from 52% to 61.3% to 68.2% over the past three seasons.
"I could see [the Eagles] being a one-and-done -- they haven't had to go 15 rounds with anybody yet," an NFC exec said. "I just wonder if they are battle tested. I think a few late-season losses would actually help them."
Added an AFC executive: "They live in the RPO world with [Hurts], and that's a good place to be. He has that system and a lot of talent around him and he should be able to handle the rest."
As for the 6-2 Giants, rival execs see a disciplined team that can handle fourth-quarter pressure.
"That defense is really good," an NFC exec said. "They probably don't have enough firepower on offense to get it done, but don't discount their chances."
Other contenders to watch
The Vikings (7-1) have a sizable 4½-game lead in the NFC North, with Kevin O'Connell making a convincing Coach of the Year run. They are closing games with precision, as six of Minnesota's wins are by one score. But evaluators are split on whether the Vikings will truly contend. The feeling is that the Vikings are beating mostly average teams, with one win over a team with a winning record (Miami), and the Dolphins played two backup quarterbacks in that game. "They are a playoff team, but I don't have them on the same level as Dallas or Philly," a veteran NFL assistant said. "Kirk [Cousins] is a good quarterback and with that system he can beat average teams. But I still don't trust him in a playoff setting to make enough throws to get the job done. And the secondary is aging. They've been lucky to have avoided injury."
The Indianapolis Colts' collapse doesn't leave the Tennessee Titans (5-3) with much of a fight in the AFC South, but opposing teams laud Titans' playoff toughness regardless. "Their defense is really good and they have a demeanor about them that carries into January," an NFC executive said. "The offense will be better when Ryan Tannehill gets back. The problem is, when January comes around, that [run-heavy] style of play only takes you so far." Derrick Henry is currently on pace for 389 carries over 17 games, which would be a career high. And the Titans haven't replaced the loss of receiver A.J. Brown.
The Bucs are still considered a dark horse contender for not just the NFC South crown, but the entire conference. "I know they aren't very good, but it's so wide open that if they can just catch fire, they are talented enough to make a run," an NFC personnel man said. "That roster is still better than most." An AFC executive disagreed, saying the Bucs look "old and not as crisp as they did the last few years. Tom Brady clearly has had trust issues with the offensive line, they can't run the ball and the front seven on defense hasn't been as good."
The Los Angeles Chargers are perplexing because they sit at 5-3 but are seriously depleted, with seven key starters either lost for the year or missing significant time, as defensive tackle Austin Johnson was added to that list Monday. And they haven't fixed their run defense, with their 145.5 yards allowed per game the fourth-worst total in the NFL. "But they are still dangerous because they should get Keenan [Allen] and those guys [Mike Williams] back eventually, and they've had moments where they've looked as dangerous as anyone," an AFC scout said. Allen and Williams are set to return in November, and pass-rusher Joey Bosa might not be far behind, though his timetable remains uncertain.
Super Bowl favorites: Bills vs. 49ers
The Chiefs and Bills split votes and basically should comprise their own Super Bowl out of the AFC. "Those are the two best teams," a veteran NFC scout said. "They are the deepest and have the best players [Allen and Mahomes]." The Bills get the nod because they are battle tested, have a deep roster and know they are good. "This feels like their time," an AFC exec said.
The Eagles are widely viewed as the NFC's most complete team, and "getting home-field advantage will be big for them," the AFC exec said. But the 49ers garnered enough votes to earn the spot. "Battle tested and explosive playmaking on both sides of the ball," an NFL personnel director said.