As we head toward the conclusion of the 2021 regular season, there are plenty of fans who have already started to think about the offseason. By my count, there are only 15 teams that can identify their 2022 Week 1 starter at quarterback with total confidence. More than half the league will either be shopping for a quarterback or shopping their quarterback in the spring.
Of course, those moves can drastically shift the way the league looks. What would this season be like if the Panthers had successfully traded for Matthew Stafford and the 49ers had drafted Mac Jones with the No. 3 overall pick in April? Would Jared Goff still be on the Rams? Would Justin Fields be on the Vikings? There's a slightly different NFL universe, and we get a totally different campaign.
Every year, I try to imagine a series of worlds in which one key decision or trade begins an offseason of quarterback movement around the NFL. Today, I've put together three such scenarios and tried to make logical decisions for how different teams might approach their quarterback conundrums. The three universes are all separate from one another, so you might see your team make a move for one quarterback in the first scenario and a different signal-caller in the second or third.
One thing to keep in mind before I start: Given the sexual assault allegations that Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson is facing and his uncertain future with the organization, I didn't include any Texans trades as part of this exercise. I do think they will consider drafting a quarterback in the first round -- they're projected to pick No. 3 overall -- so one trade is included in which a team moves ahead of Houston for a passer.
The two big-name quarterbacks who might be on the move are the same guys who were the subject of rumors last offseason. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson could presumably leave their longtime teams before the 2022 season. Here, we consider three scenarios in which one or neither of the two future Hall of Famers makes his move.
Jump to a scenario:
Aaron Rodgers gets traded
Russell Wilson gets traded
Rodgers and Wilson both stay
Scenario 1: Aaron Rodgers gets traded
Let's start with one of the most prominent rumors from last offseason. When Rodgers was reportedly looking for a trade out of Green Bay, the Broncos seemed to be the most logical suitor for the reigning league MVP. They had a top-10 pick, young players with trade value and a hole at quarterback. Teddy Bridgewater has done a solid job for the 7-7 Broncos, but he is a pending free agent, and Rodgers would be a major upgrade on either Bridgewater or Drew Lock.
With the Packers preparing to move forward with 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love, they can send Rodgers to the Mile High City:
The Packers trade Rodgers to the Broncos for ...
... well, obviously, it won't be cheap. The Broncos will send their first- and second-round picks in 2022 and 2023 to the Packers while also adding tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, who will add depth as the Packers wait for Robert Tonyan to return from a torn ACL.
Rodgers, 38, is due just under $27 million for the 2022 season, after which the final year of his deal will void. The Broncos aren't making this deal for one year of him, so they'll sign him to a new contract in the process. His three-year extension will be worth $126 million, although the contract will have two voidable years to keep down his cap hits. The Broncos will essentially be committing to Rodgers through 2024.
Green Bay moves forward with Love and a bevy of draft picks. The team will eat nearly $27 million in dead money, although the trade will free up more than $19 million in cap space. What happens next?
The 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo to the Panthers for a conditional third-round pick.
San Francisco doesn't have a ton of leverage with its current quarterback. Garoppolo's no-trade clause expires after the season, but he's due $25 million in unguaranteed money in 2022, has struggled to stay healthy and is expected to give way to No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance before the season begins. Garoppolo has actually been solid as a passer and ranks fourth in the NFL in QBR since Week 10, but it would be a surprise if the 49ers were able to get a first-round pick outright for him in a trade.
The Panthers, on the other hand, are desperate. The Sam Darnold move hasn't worked out, and it cost Matt Rhule's team its second- and fourth-round picks in the 2022 draft. If the Panthers strike out in their moves to acquire a superstar under center, Garoppolo is a logical Plan B. We know that he has more upside than it might seem -- the 49ers did make it to a Super Bowl with him, after all -- and he wouldn't preclude them from going after a quarterback in the 2023 draft. This would be a third-round pick in 2023 that could rise as high as the first round if Garoppolo plays 16 games and Carolina makes the playoffs.
The Panthers eat $12 million and send Sam Darnold to the Saints for a seventh-round pick.
Trading for Garoppolo would mostly eliminate the need for Darnold; while the Panthers would want a viable backup given Garoppolo's injury history, they could afford to get that backup for far less than $18.9 million Darnold is guaranteed in 2022. A move away from Carolina would make sense for all parties involved, even if the Panthers would have to eat a significant chunk of Darnold's contract to get a deal done.
Jameis Winston is a free agent after an impressive half-season with New Orleans, but the Saints might not want to go back to him coming off a torn ACL. Darnold hasn't succeeded with the Jets or Panthers, but the Saints would give him his best chance of success, given their coaching staff and offensive line. For an organization so heavily invested elsewhere on the roster, taking a flier on Darnold might be one way to try to unlock upside under center. And hey, if it doesn't work out, there's always Taysom Hill.
Ryan Fitzpatrick signs a one-year, $6 million deal with the Steelers.
The last time we saw Fitzpatrick was in Week 1, when the 39-year-old Washington quarterback suffered a season-ending hip injury. There's a chance that he isn't able to return to his NFL career, but he was an above-average player when healthy in 2018, 2019 and 2020, posting a 67.3 QBR over that time frame. Fitzpatrick comes with risk, but if a team were to acquire a quarterback who has posted Russell Wilson-type numbers without any risk, it wouldn't be paying $6 million.
The Steelers would be signing Fitzpatrick to be their Week 1 starter in 2022. I suspect they will look toward a quarterback with their first-round pick, which ESPN's Football Power Index projects to be a No. 15. Even if they do draft one, Fitzpatrick would give them a veteran with meaningful upside. He would be playing for his 10th team in the hopes of winning a Super Bowl before retiring.
The Lions cut Jared Goff, who inks a one-year, $5 million deal with the Bengals.
Detroit is on the hook for a $15.5 million roster bonus in 2022, but cutting Goff would save the team $10.7 million in cash. There's no significant cap savings by releasing him, but the Lions can use that cash elsewhere. While Goff played well in Sunday's upset win over the Cardinals, coach Dan Campbell hasn't seemed particularly attached to the veteran this season.
Goff probably wouldn't be expecting to walk into a starting job somewhere, but a reunion with former Rams assistant Zac Taylor as the backup to Joe Burrow would make sense. The Lions could look toward a one-year deal with Teddy Bridgewater, who crossed paths with Campbell in New Orleans, or draft a quarterback to play ahead of current backups Tim Boyle and David Blough. They're projected to pick in the top three in April's draft.
Scenario 2: Russell Wilson gets traded
Last offseason, Wilson was reportedly willing to waive his no-trade clause to join one of four different teams. That list might look different if he wants a trade this upcoming offseason. The Cowboys locked up Dak Prescott, the Bears traded up for Justin Fields and the Raiders parted ways with Jon Gruden. The Bears could always trade Fields as part of a Wilson deal -- and the Seahawks star might just like the idea of playing in Las Vegas -- but there's one team left from that group that still makes more sense in 2022:
The Seahawks deal Wilson to the Saints.
The Saints are, as you probably already know, in rough salary-cap shape. Things aren't quite as bad as they were a year ago -- and they will perform some cap gymnastics to create the room they need this upcoming offseason -- but the only quarterback of note on their books for 2022 is Taysom Hill, who might not be a quarterback at all. Jameis Winston, a free agent in March, played well enough to justify a return trip, but the Saints might look at their core and think they can win a championship if they add a superstar.
So, if Wilson is tired of playing under Pete Carroll in Seattle and goes into another offseason seeking a trade, there's a deal to be done. New Orleans will send first- and third-round picks in 2022 and 2023 and slot cornerback C.J. Gardner-Johnson to the Seahawks for Wilson. The Seahawks would also get a conditional second-round pick in 2024 if Wilson leads the Saints to a Super Bowl before then.
Wilson would also sign a four-year, $160 million extension, adding to the two years and $51 million remaining on his current deal, which would free up cap room in 2022 and 2023. He gets $96 million fully guaranteed at signing, including a $55 million signing bonus. The moves keep Wilson's cap hits relatively low over the next two seasons and allow the Saints to build a Super Bowl contender around their new quarterback. Here's what that new contract would look like:
The Raiders trade Derek Carr to the Seahawks for a 2023 second-round pick.
Trading Wilson might set the Seahawks off on a retooling of the roster, but I don't think the 70-year-old Carroll is about to tank or outright rebuild. Getting a viable veteran quarterback allows them to stay competitive while they use their bounty of picks to supplement the roster. With more than $60 million in cap space after the Wilson trade, the Seahawks can also afford to take on some short-term salary at quarterback if the right player pops up.
Carr has been a consistently above-average quarterback over the past few seasons, even as the Raiders have turned over their offensive line and cycled through options at receiver. He isn't the problem for Las Vegas, but after years of disappointing seasons from the defense, it might be time for the organization to pursue a different sort of roster. With Carr entering the final year of his deal in 2022, the Raiders might prefer to get a solid draft pick for him and go in a different direction.
The Raiders sign Jameis Winston to play for a familiar coach.
With just about every quarterback in the league struggling at times this season, the half-season Winston compiled before tearing his ACL looks more and more impressive. He was able to work under the tutelage of Sean Payton, but Winston was also throwing to one of the league's worst receiving corps given that Michael Thomas was out. I'm not sure I'd be willing to commit a huge deal to him, but even on a one-year deal, Winston has earned a raise on the $5.5 million he earned from the Saints a year ago.
Winston worked under Bucs offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich when the two were in Tampa Bay, and with Leftwich linked to multiple head-coaching jobs this offseason, a reunion between the two could make sense. Former Raiders owner Al Davis spent his entire life in love with the vertical passing game, and I suspect he instilled some of that affection in his son, Mark. A one-year, $16-million deal would give them the upside of signing a top-10 quarterback, while a no-franchise clause would ensure Winston gets paid after 2022 if he keeps up his form after the knee injury.
The Vikings trade Kirk Cousins to the Eagles for a first-round pick.
With Rodgers staying put in Green Bay in this scenario, a Vikings team already halfway between contending and rebuilding finally takes an affirmative step in the latter direction. If that happens, I suspect the Vikings would be coming off a disastrous end to the season, one in which they miss the postseason and feel like they're not close to competing for a Super Bowl. That realization would probably come with a change at coach and/or general manager, but the biggest decision they would have to make is what to do with their veteran quarterback.
By trading Cousins, the Vikings would free up $35 million in much-needed cap space. The Eagles have been spry with Jalen Hurts this season, and without any logical quarterback to go after with all three of their first-round picks in a draft that isn't expected to have superstar QBs -- they could opt to try to surround a very good passer with a talented roster. That formula might not seem terribly enticing, but remember that Philly is only a few years removed from winning a Super Bowl with Nick Foles at quarterback.
Cousins would sign a three-year, $105 million extension, and the Eagles would get their man. Philly would send the worst of its three first-round picks in 2022 to the Vikings, who send back Cousins and their third-round pick in the upcoming draft. Minnesota would be left with 2021 third-round pick Kellen Mond as its only option at quarterback, which could lead to a reunion.
Teddy Bridgewater signs a one-year, $8 million deal with the Vikings.
Welcome back! Bridgewater was the starter in Minnesota before a serious knee injury cost the popular quarterback nearly two full seasons of football. The Vikings traded for Sam Bradford and then installed Case Keenum as the starter before Bridgewater left as a free agent. Now, with Minnesota in need of a veteran, a return to town for the 29-year-old would make sense.
Mond would still get a shot at winning the starting job, but Bridgewater would be a competent option to begin the season for new coach Kellen Moore.
Scenario 3: Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson stay put
The most likely offseason scenario is that the status quo sustains and Rodgers and Wilson stay in their current locales. It's just so difficult for general managers to bring themselves to trade away star quarterbacks, even if they are conspicuously cranky a few times each year.
In this scenario, we assume Wilson and Pete Carroll go on a retreat and return as a unified front, while Rodgers wins his second straight MVP award and signs an extension to finish his career in Green Bay. If that happens, the Packers' current quarterback of the future would become part of their past:
The Panthers trade their 2023 second- and fourth-round picks to the Packers for Jordan Love.
While Carolina has attempted to trade for star quarterbacks over the past two offseasons, this scenario would leave the market with none available. The Panthers might not want to use another midround pick on a quarterback who isn't a sure thing, but facing the horror of going into 2022 with Sam Darnold as their top option, Love would be a low-cost, high-upside alternative. They reportedly took a close look at Love before the 2020 draft.
Carolina has already lost its 2022 second-rounder because of the Darnold trade, so the Packers would have to wait until 2023 for what could be a very juicy selection. Green Bay might try to hold out for a first-round pick, but it's not getting Carolina's selection given where it's likely to come in, and Love is already two years into his rookie deal.
The Falcons trade Matt Ryan to the Broncos for a 2023 first-round pick (after June 1).
Atlanta isn't close to competing for a Super Bowl, and Ryan's cap hits over the next two seasons are an unreal $48.7 million and $43.6 million. I suppose it could re-sign Ryan, 36, to a new deal and keep the longtime starter around into his 40s, but he might have only a couple of seasons left as an average-or-better starter. His time is now. As painful as it might be for the Falcons to leap into their rebuild, they're not winning anything in the NFC South until Tom Brady retires. Better to get an extra first-round pick in 2023 when the quarterback class could be better.
Landing on Ryan would be a fallback plan for the Broncos, who might think they're Super Bowl contenders with a good quarterback. For cap reasons, the Falcons probably have to wait to make this trade until after June 1, when they can spread the $40.5 million in dead money they'll create with a Ryan deal over the 2022 and 2023 caps. With that being the case, Denver can't trade its 2022 first-rounder. If Ryan were dealt before June 1 for picks in the 2022 draft, he would more likely fetch a pick in the 33-to-42 range.
The 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo to the Giants for Daniel Jones and a third-round pick.
With Jones alternately injured and ineffective during his first three seasons, the Giants can't reasonably justify guaranteeing their quarterback's fifth-year option for the 2023 campaign. They have two first-round picks, which are currently projected to land at Nos. 5 and 6, but this isn't a great draft for passers. They could try to trade one of those picks for a 2023 first-rounder, but there's no guarantee they'll be in position to land two top-10 picks again.
A logical fallback plan might be Garoppolo, who began his career in New England in the same building as Giants coach Joe Judge. As I mentioned in the first scenario, the 49ers can't expect to extract a premium pick for Garoppolo, but taking a flier on Jones gets the team a competent backup to push Trey Lance for the starting job. Jones might not end up as a premium starter, but his athleticism should make him a high-end backup. Garoppolo would be the short-term starter for the Giants, who could take a quarterback in 2023 if he underwhelms.
Washington trades up with the Jaguars for the No. 1 overall pick.
Elsewhere in the NFC East, Washington is still waiting to find its quarterback of the future. After drafting Robert Griffin and Kirk Cousins in 2012, the organization broke Griffin, alienated Cousins, failed to get anything out of 2019 first-round pick Dwayne Haskins and lost Alex Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick to serious injuries.
We think this doesn't appear to be a great draft for quarterbacks, but all it takes is one organization to fall in love with a signal-caller. As the draft stands, the Jaguars are projected to come away with the top pick. Jacksonville could unquestionably stand to add either of the top edge rushers -- Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux or Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson -- but if it could get multiple first-rounders, it would go a long way toward replenishing a middling roster.
The Lions and Texans are projected to draft Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, and each would have plausible interest in a quarterback. Washington would need to move all the way up to No. 1 to get ahead of them. It wouldn't be cheap. It would send its own first-round pick, which projects to be No. 11, plus a second-rounder in 2022 and first-rounders in 2023 and 2024. The Robert Griffin trade didn't work out a decade ago, but everything else it has done hasn't worked out, either.
Marcus Mariota signs with the Steelers.
With the top quarterbacks staying put, there aren't many veterans left in the market for Pittsburgh to chase. Needing a replacement for the retiring Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Tomlin's team could draft a quarterback at No. 16 while using free agency to add a viable starter in Mariota, who has spent the past two years as the backup in Las Vegas.
His inability to avoid sacks was his biggest flaw in Tennessee, but he's an effective enough passer to keep the Steelers in games long enough for their defense to pull things out.