After weeks of poring over scouting reports, launching Zoom conference calls and reviewing medicals, teams have done the legwork for this week's NFL draft. Now comes the fun part: exchanging notes and potential trade ideas over the phone.
During the next few days, general managers will sit in their home offices and consult peers they trust, piecing together which teams are comfortable dealing and which players will spark a positional run. With 40 trades executed during last year's draft, moving up and down a draft board is as much a part of the event's fabric as ceilings and late risers. One spot to keep a close eye on is late in the first round, when players -- especially quarterbacks -- who have slipped a few spots can spur action. Because first-round rookie deals include a fifth-year option, that entices teams to package a deal and jump back into Day 1 proceedings.
This explains why Lamar Jackson is on the Ravens. Two years ago, Baltimore bundled two second-round picks and a fourth-rounder to move up 20 slots, selecting Jackson No. 32 overall. That worked out pretty well. Minnesota did something similar in 2014 with Teddy Bridgewater, moving up eight spots to select him 32nd.
This year, some teams have made it clear that they would prefer not to execute trades while on the clock because of the technological hurdles of working from home, according to multiple execs. And with less information on prospects due to the cancellation of pro days and player visits because of the coronavirus pandemic, one NFC exec suspects teams could play it "super safe" with their picks. But others aren't so nervous and expect business as usual. "Don't overcomplicate it -- make your pick, call it in," one general manager said.
In the final days before the picks fly, we asked people around the league how things might shake out late in Round 1 -- and which players and teams will test the bandwidth of this virtual draft.
See more: Rankings | Draft order
The Eagles are always lurking, and wide receivers are plentiful
Howie Roseman is known as an aggressive general manager this time of year, even when he doesn't make a move. He always is making calls and willing to listen. Most expect Roseman's Philadelphia Eagles to strongly consider one of the wide receivers in the first round, either by trading up or with their No. 21 overall pick. None of their wide receivers reached even 500 yards in 2019, and current No. 1 Alshon Jeffery is 30 years old and often injured. If Alabama's Jerry Jeudy, Oklahoma's CeeDee Lamb and Alabama's Henry Ruggs III are off the board early, the depth at wideout is so strong that Roseman might be able move back for more picks, allowing him to get a top-flight wide receiver and an impact defensive player. Both Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay had 12 wideouts in their recent two-round mock drafts, a testament to the talent of the class.
Personnel evaluators like to say "pick your flavor" with the next crop of wide receivers behind Jeudy, Lamb and Ruggs. LSU's Justin Jefferson, who is good in the slot but has experience on the outside, is probably the consensus No. 4 wide receiver in the class. But the options are seemingly endless. Tee Higgins out of Clemson is a classic outside threat. Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State) provides run-after-catch flare, Baylor's Denzel Mims is the raw talent with a high ceiling, Jalen Reagor (TCU) can do a little bit of everything and USC receiver Michael Pittman Jr. has size and ball skills.
"The Eagles have set things up to get Carson [Wentz] help through the draft, so I've got to think they will make it happen with a trade or straight up," one AFC exec said. "They have to."
Also, watch out for the Cincinnati Bengals, who pick 33rd and have been doing work on wide receivers. They aren't typically aggressive, but this is a new era, and they are trying to surround LSU quarterback Joe Burrow (the assumed No. 1 overall pick) with talent along the line or in the open field.
NFC North movement
Multiple execs believe the Minnesota Vikings are primed to move back. They hold the Nos. 22 and 25 picks, and their two clear needs -- corner and receiver -- offer trade-back value.
Most agree there's a clean break at corner after Jeff Okudah (Ohio State) and CJ Henderson (Florida), and players in the second tier aren't guys you necessarily have to stretch your draft capital to get, multiple execs say. They are good prospects, but you can let them come to you.
The Vikings could package one of their first-rounders for more volume, on the way to getting impact players at both positions. Some project A.J. Terrell from Clemson as the No. 3 corner because of his size and press-man ability. If so, that could still leave solid choices late in the first round or early in the second round, including LSU's Kristian Fulton, Alabama's Trevon Diggs (former Vikings receiver Stefon Diggs' brother) and Utah's Jaylon Johnson. Some teams have second-round grades on these players but really like them overall.
Elsewhere in the division, the Detroit Lions are open for business with the third overall pick (although they also have been linked to Okudah in that spot). That probably means they are open for business at No. 35 too. They signed more than a dozen free agents, but they could be looking to bolster their defensive front.
"They are a team that will put a lot of feelers out there. Not sure if they will actually do anything," one exec said. "The interior defensive line might be an area for them."
Considering there isn't great depth at defensive tackle this year, getting the right guy could necessitate a move back into the first round.
Hot spots out west
The Seattle Seahawks almost always look to trade back, and they will likely do so again at No. 27. But they might not be alone in the NFC West. The San Francisco 49ers have zero picks in Rounds 2 to 4 and could utilize No. 31 overall to gain capital, especially considering they dealt DeForest Buckner for the No. 13 pick last month. Many teams are looking at San Francisco as a catalyst for movement late in the first round.
If they want to get creative, the 49ers can include players in any deal. Running back Matt Breida is believed to be on the trading block as the odd man out in a crowded tailback crew (he would welcome the fresh start too), and wide receiver Marquise Goodwin still has elite speed, which holds value.
The Jordan Love effect
Bringing up the Utah State quarterback elicits the same response from evaluators.
I've heard similar phrases like "really talented" and "got a lot of talent" from execs. One NFL offensive coordinator called Love "super talented." An AFC scout chimed in, calling him a "talented kid." See anything in common? That's the opening line, and it never fails. One exec said he would not be surprised to see Love go in the top 10 on Thursday. The upside is that strong, and there will be one or two teams that will convince themselves they can turn Love into Patrick Mahomes Lite. OK, Love's arm isn't that good, but quarterbacks who can throw on the move like Love are pretty rare.
If Love is available in the 20s (and that's a possibility since many teams will be turned off by the 17 interceptions in 2019), then New England at No. 23 becomes a crucial spot. The Patriots have done a lot of homework on the quarterback landscape. If Love becomes available to New England and it passes -- No. 23 might be too rich, and it has needs elsewhere -- the notion of teams with picks in the early second round jumping the line to get Love comes into play.
Here are a handful of teams that have done serious research on Love and are worth watching: New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers, Washington Redskins, Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins.
Carolina picks 38th in the second round and could stash a project QB behind Teddy Bridgewater with a move up. But an NFC offensive coordinator says he "would be surprised if he got that far" in the first round.
"If he did fall to the back end, I could see a bunch of teams trying to take him," the coordinator said. "He was a little reckless [in 2019], but if you just watch the skill set, he looks like a really good NFL quarterback." The coordinator pointed to a lack of talent around Love and Utah State's insistence on running "field outs" (throws from the far hash to the other sideline, causing cornerbacks to squat on the route for easy picks) as an explanation for an interception-heavy 2019 season. But Love won't be asked to make that throw in the NFL.
And while there are whispers that Love's interview process wasn't exceptional, one NFC exec reasoned, "He's a good kid ... just green."
Can Jacob Eason move the first-round needle?
Eason is one of the draft's best pure throwers. "If you just watch him throw it around in a play-catch setting, it's really pretty," one exec said.
Yet the Washington QB doesn't move as well as Love, and some teams still have concerns. One exec said Eason is "not a grinder." As a result, his exact draft slot has been tough to project. But the talent is immense, and teams with an aging veteran quarterback should be candidates to go get Eason somewhere in the first two rounds, multiple execs say. The Indianapolis Colts, picking No. 34, fall into that category, although general manager Chris Ballard typically likes to move back.
"He's perfect for a Bruce Arians offense in Tampa," said one AFC exec. "He wouldn't have to move. He could sit in the pocket and throw downfield. They could develop him for a few years behind [Tom] Brady."
The Bucs select at No. 45 in the second round but have two fourth-round picks to use as ammunition for a potential move up. But they also have needs at tailback and tackle, and protecting Brady trumps a stash QB. Speaking of offensive linemen ...
Watch for offensive tackles late in the first round
Most around the league expect the top four tackles -- Iowa's Tristan Wirfs, Georgia's Andrew Thomas, Louisville's Mekhi Becton and Alabama's Jedrick Wills Jr. -- to be long gone by the later picks of Day 1. But so many teams need tackle help this year that movement later in the first round isn't so far-fetched.
Consider Ezra Cleveland out of Boise State. One AFC offensive coordinator says a first-round pick might be too high for him on paper, but the athletic Cleveland will be a starting tackle in the league, and he fits a zone scheme really well. The Cleveland Browns, who hold the Nos. 10 and 41 picks, probably like the sound of that. A need and a fit colliding can make teams move up to get guys like that.
Then there are USC's Austin Jackson, Georgia's Isaiah Wilson and Houston's Josh Jones, who all have unique athletic traits that will intrigue teams. So for all the talk about receivers dominating the first round, don't be surprised if offensive tackle is a sneaky-important position there. Some execs are thinking roughly six tackles will go in the first round.
Other positions to consider late on Day 1
Many mock drafts have multiple safeties and inside linebackers going in the first round, and execs say they aren't so sure how that one plays out. Safety Xavier McKinney (Alabama) is drawing interest, but multiple execs wonder if the mock drafts placing him in the teens are a little too high. And one of the top two inside linebackers (Kenneth Murray from Oklahoma or Patrick Queen out of LSU) could be available somewhere late in the first round (though Murray is considered a safe bet, and that matters right now). This is all a function of position more than a draft free fall. In a space-and-cover league, teams simply might prioritize other positions.
This also isn't a deep pass-rusher class for undeniable first-round talent, but teams always need them. That could spark a late first-round run. The Dallas Cowboys have done a ton of recon work on Penn State edge rusher Yetur Gross-Matos, so if they move back from the No. 17 overall pick, perhaps they parlay added capital into Gross-Matos and someone else.