The Buccaneers' ugly loss to the Saints on Sunday night was a reminder of how unique opponents can turn what might seem like a lopsided matchup on paper into a competitive contest. New Orleans, starting quarterback Taysom Hill against one of the league's best run defenses, had one win since the start of November, and it came against the Jets. The Bucs were starting Tom Brady and riding a four-game winning streak. At home, they were comfortable favorites to all but knock their division rivals out of the playoff picture.
That didn't happen, owing to a dominant defensive performance. The Saints have given the Bucs trouble since Brady arrived in Florida, and while Tampa Bay would be favored in a playoff rematch between these two teams, I doubt that Bruce Arians & Co. are desperate to play a third game against the Saints before next season. There are objectively better teams than the Saints in the NFC playoff picture, but Dennis Allen's defense has a great handle on what to do to disrupt Tampa's offense.
Let's look into each of the league's most prominent postseason contenders and try to identify which team it would prefer to avoid in the race to Super Bowl LVI. While each would like to avoid playing the best teams on the road, I'm going to focus on opponents that might be able to exploit these contenders' most notable weakness or an issue that has plagued them in their losses.
I'll go through seven of the eight division leaders. Because the AFC North is still up for grabs, I'll leave the four teams there aside and swap in the Rams, who are all but playoff locks, as the eighth contender. I'll start with the Patriots, who looked unbeatable for two months before the Colts finally exploited one of their few weaknesses in Week 15:
Jump to a team:
Buccaneers | Cardinals
Chiefs | Cowboys | Packers
Patriots | Rams | Titans
New England Patriots (9-5)
Kryptonite: The first quarter
In what shouldn't be a surprise under Bill Belichick, the Patriots have built a fantastic defense. Their front seven has the size to overwhelm the running game, and their secondary has an answer for just about every sort of receiver they're likely to see from week to week. Belichick's famous aptitude for taking away what the opposing offense does best shows up most weeks, while J.C. Jackson and the secondary are a weekly threat to post multiple takeaways. No team wants to face this New England defense.
If you're going to try to score on the Patriots, though, the best time to do it is very early. The Pats lead the league in defensive expected points added (EPA) per snap across the second, third and fourth quarters of the game. In the first quarter? Not so much. Belichick's defense ranks 23rd in EPA per play, behind teams such as the Texans and Raiders. The Pats allow 1.71 points per drive in the first quarter and 1.25 points per possession afterward.
Could this be randomness? Of course. It's not as if the Patriots are running out worse defenders or defensive concepts in the first quarter. I can also think of a couple of logical explanations. Nobody is better at diagnosing what's going in on in real time and making adjustments than Belichick, so an offense's best chance of showing the legendary coach something he hasn't seen on film is in the first quarter. The Patriots are also one of the league's deepest defenses, so while other defenses tire as the game goes on, this one stays fresh.
The Patriots have been able to establish early leads and force other teams to become one-dimensional, which has been a successful formula for them on both sides of the football. With a rookie quarterback in Mac Jones, whom they want to protect and keep in favorable situations, the ideal formula for New England is to establish a lead and force the other team to become one-dimensional.
Saturday night's loss to the Colts was basically the opposite of what the Patriots want to happen. Indy got out to a 14-0 lead by the end of the first quarter, and while one of those touchdowns came on a blocked punt, it drove 78 yards for a touchdown on one of its two first-quarter possessions. Jones was forced to throw the ball and was picked off twice, although he did lead a pair of touchdown drives in the fourth quarter.
We also saw the Pats tighten up as the game went along. The Colts produced drives of 58 and 78 yards across their first three possessions and then began to struggle. Their next five possessions produced a total of just 65 yards and four first downs. The Pats nearly got the ball back to Jones with a chance to win the game, only for Jonathan Taylor to finally break off a big run to seal the game with 2:01 to go. Other teams won't be able to put the league's most productive runner in their backfield, but they can try to emulate the Colts by scoring early to stress the Pats.
Team to avoid in the playoffs: Kansas City. The Chiefs lead the league in offensive EPA per play in the first quarter (0.21). And while a rematch between Belichick and Tom Brady in the Super Bowl might cause the universe to collapse under a mountain of hype, that wouldn't be a great matchup for the Pats; the Bucs lead the NFC in the same category.
Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)
Kryptonite: Turnovers
As tempting as it might be to suggest that the Chiefs have figured out the conservative two-high coverages that were bothering them earlier this season, I'm not sure that's really the case. We've seen Kansas City explode for two big games on offense against the Raiders, who play two-high less frequently than any other defense. No other team is going to be as naive against the Chiefs as the Raiders have been this season.
The offense also hummed last week against the Chargers, but that was almost exclusively once Derwin James left the game because of an injury and freed up Travis Kelce. The star tight end caught one pass for 14 yards on 13 routes while James was in the game. Once James was injured, though, Kelce's 27 routes produced nine catches for 177 yards and two touchdowns. Getting the other team's best defender to leave the game would be a great trick to unlock any offense.
The real difference for the Chiefs has instead been giveaways. During their 3-4 start, they turned the ball over 17 times in seven games. Over their ensuing seven-game winning streak, they have cut that by more than half, giving the ball away only eight times across seven contests. There have still been some signs of the sloppy play we saw during the first half, but they have been more careful and gotten luckier in the process. After losing nine of 14 fumbles (64.3%) in the first half of the season, the Chiefs have recovered four of their eight fumbles on offense during the second half.
Simultaneously, the Kansas City defense has started to force takeaways. After forcing seven during that 3-4 start, Tyrann Mathieu & Co. have forced 18 over the past seven games. The Chiefs have often seemed to transcend our ideas of what works on a football field during the Patrick Mahomes era, but this is pretty simple. They posted a turnover differential of minus-10 and went 3-4 through the first seven games. Since then, they've put up a turnover differential of plus-10 and gone 7-0. As long as that formula doesn't flip, they are going to be a problem in the AFC.
Team to avoid in the playoffs: Indianapolis. The Colts have forced turnovers more frequently than any other team, creating takeaways on 19% of opposing drives this season. They've also turned the ball over only 17 times across 14 games. The Patriots lurk just behind the Colts, having forced takeaways on 18.1% of opposing possessions, but I'm not sure how to handle a matchup in which one team is the other's kryptonite and vice versa.
Tennessee Titans (9-5)
Kryptonite: Pass pressure
Ideally, the Titans want to run the football, work off play-action and give Ryan Tannehill plenty of time to hit big plays downfield. With Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown and Julio Jones injured for large portions of this season, that formula hasn't always been possible. Players such as Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and D'Onta Foreman have stepped in and done their best, but the Titans have dropped from second in the NFL in points per possession a year ago to 16th.
Forced into playing more as a dropback passer, Tannehill has struggled when opposing defenses have been able to get home with their pass rushes. When he is able to operate out of a clean pocket, his 67.6 QBR ranks 11th in the NFL. When opposing pass rushes pressure him, though, his QBR drops all the way to 10.5. Every quarterback gets worse under pressure, but even compared to others when they're under pressure, Tannehill's QBR ranks 25th.
This is nothing new for him. In 2019, he had the league's best QBR when he wasn't pressured, but that mark dropped to 30th when opposing pass rushes got home. The following season, he ranked second in the league when unpressured and 22nd in QBR when pressured. If you can create pressure on Tannehill, it's going to cause Tennessee's offense to freeze up.
We saw the Steelers do just that on Sunday, as T.J. Watt & Co. pressured Tannehill on 37.8% of his dropbacks. Those pressures produced four sacks, as he went 5-of-9 under pressure for just 20 yards. It helps to have superstars like Watt and Cam Heyward to call upon, but if a team wants to beat the Titans, the first place to start is by finding ways to get after the quarterback.
Team to avoid in the playoffs: Pittsburgh. I'll throw the repeat matchup out there, because the Steelers are just a bad matchup for Tennessee on the defensive side of the ball. They forced four Tennessee giveaways and held Tannehill and the Titans to 13 points. The Steelers, who have an 18% chance of making it to the postseason according to ESPN's Football Power Index, will leave Week 15 with the highest sack rate of any AFC team (7.8%).
Dallas Cowboys (10-4)
Kryptonite: Big plays
If you've watched the Cowboys on defense this season, you know they're capable of creating havoc for opposing offenses. Trevon Diggs has intercepted a league-high 10 passes, while Defensive Rookie of the Year shoo-in Micah Parsons has racked up 12 sacks and forced three fumbles. Other players are even getting in on the fun; against the Giants on Sunday, it was DeMarcus Lawrence forcing a Saquon Barkley fumble and setting up a Jourdan Lewis pick by pressuring Mike Glennon.
If you've watched the Cowboys closely, though, you also know that their aggressiveness on defense can sometimes come back to bite them. They have allowed 27 gains of 30 yards or more this season, the second most of any team. Only the Ravens have allowed more explosive plays, and they're playing with a patchwork secondary because of injuries.
As you can probably surmise, when the Cowboys allow more big plays, they struggle. Across their 10 wins, they have allowed a total of 16 explosive gains, or an average of 1.6 per contest. Look instead at their four losses and you'll see that they have given up 11 30-plus-yard gains, for 3.7 explosive plays per defeat. They allowed a league-high five such explosive plays to the Raiders in their disappointing loss on Thanksgiving Day; the only other team to allow five such plays in a single game are the Broncos, who did the same thing in their own loss to the Raiders in October.
Team to avoid in the playoffs: Arizona. The Cardinals lead the NFL with 26 explosive plays this season, although they were held without a single 30-plus-yard gain in Sunday's ugly loss to the Lions. We'll get to see how the Cardinals match up with Dallas on the field in two weeks, as former Texas prep star Kyler Murray will return to his home state for a game at the Cowboys in Week 17.
Green Bay Packers (11-3)
Kryptonite: Special teams
No team manages to find more ways to win than the Packers, who pulled out their fourth victory with a score or a stop of a lead-taking score in the final minute against the Ravens on Sunday. There hasn't been a simple line through their three losses this season: Matt LaFleur's team lost a blowout to the Saints when everything went wrong on both sides of the ball, came up short against the Chiefs when Aaron Rodgers was out with COVID-19, and dropped a close one to the Vikings when Minnesota was ruthlessly efficient on third down and in the red zone.
One of the narrow differences between Green Bay and Minnesota was a field goal miss from 32 yards out by kicker Mason Crosby, and while the Packers' issues have shown up more in some of the team's victories, their special teams are a mess. Heading into Week 15, they ranked last in Football Outsiders' special teams metrics.
Crosby, who is still below 70% on field goal tries, has received the most conspicuous criticism, and the Packers rank last in points gained versus expectation on scoring kicks. That's not the whole story. Heading into this week, they also ranked last in points generated on punt returns and kickoff returns, which have generally been the dominion of rookies Amari Rodgers and Kylin Hill. It's certainly a surprise that general manager Brian Gutekunst hasn't looked to the waiver wire to add more experienced help, although the struggles on both punt and kick returns suggest that their blocking might not be up to task.
The only place the Packers rate out as above average is on punts, where Corey Bojorquez ranks fifth by Puntalytics' adjusted metric. Unfortunately, given how effective their offense has been this season, they need to punt less frequently than the vast majority of their competitors. I don't think LaFleur will be upset about leaving Bojorquez on the bench most weeks, but Green Bay will have to hope that it can get by without having that third facet of the game exposed in the postseason.
Team to avoid in the playoffs: Kansas City. The Ravens led the league in special teams DVOA heading into Week 15, and that helped keep things close in a game in which Baltimore was without star quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Chiefs rank second in special teams DVOA, and they have been the league's best team on the combination of kickoffs and punts this season. It might not seem like too big of a deal, but the few yards of field position per drive the Chiefs pick up on punts and kicks add up in the end.
Arizona Cardinals (10-4)
Kryptonite: Red zone performance
As defenses have found this season, it's almost impossible to stop Kyler Murray and the Cardinals' offense from marching the ball up and down the field. Murray is too crafty and spectacular to bottle up in the pocket, and despite going without DeAndre Hopkins for most of the season, they have relied on the likes of James Conner, Zach Ertz and A.J. Green to play big roles.
What happens at the end of those drives, though, has played a big role in determining whether the Cardinals are celebrating on the field at the end of the day. In their 10 wins this season, they've scored touchdowns on 67.4% of their red zone possessions. Even when exclusively looking at how every team has performed in their respective victories, that 67.4% mark is the fifth best in football.
When they lose, though, they convert only 46.7% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. Again, even compared to other teams' losses, that ranks 22nd. It has been a problem in each of the Cardinals' three losses this season. An interception thrown by Murray on a play in which Green failed to turn around turned a near-victory into defeat against the Packers. Another pick on the 1-yard line and a failure on downs cost the Cardinals in a loss to the Rams. On Sunday, Arizona failed to score a single touchdown on its four red zone trips in its loss to the Lions.
Obviously, a healthy Cardinals team has plenty of talent on offense. Hopkins is a big target with soft hands going over the middle of the field. Conner has been extremely effective as a runner. Murray is capable of extending plays for seconds at a time before firing a pass off to an open receiver. He's also capable of making mistakes in tight windows, which makes his aggressiveness more dangerous inside the 20-yard line.
Team to avoid in the playoffs: Tampa Bay. The well-coached Bucs have allowed opposing teams to convert just 47.1% of their red zone trips into touchdowns this season, the best mark in the league. Their overall team speed should also help keep the likes of Devin White and Lavonte David in striking range of Murray as a runner and scrambler.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-4)
Kryptonite: Pressure without blitzing
Here's a fun one for old times' sake. The book on how to slow down or stop Tom Brady isn't unique to the future Hall of Famer, but outside of injuring all of his receivers, it's still the best solution. It's a strategy that worked for the Giants in their Super Bowl upset victories and again for the Broncos when they beat Brady in the AFC Championship Game with a compromised Peyton Manning. It also got the Falcons out to their early lead in Super Bowl LI, and when their pass rushers got tired, it helped spur Brady's legendary comeback.
If you can get pressure on Brady without blitzing, he's mortal. It works on just about everyone, but given how difficult it is to typically get any leg up on the legendary quarterback, it's still the formula that works. When he's pressured by teams that send four or fewer, his QBR drops down to 21.7. His completion percentage falls to 40.7%, which is 12.1% below his expected completion rate. The only passers who get less accurate in these situations are Zach Wilson, Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford and Tannehill. Brady's off-target rate when pressured by four or fewer is the fourth highest in football. Bother him and he's probably going to throw the ball away and play for another down. Don't do it and he's going to pick teams apart on a snap-by-snap basis.
Oddly enough, this isn't something the Saints -- who have beaten the Bucs twice this season -- do all that well. They rank 24th in the league in pressure rate without blitzing at 24.5%, although that has come in a season in which they've dealt with injuries and COVID-19 absences up front. With a relatively healthy defense on Sunday night, Cameron Jordan & Co. ate Brady alive, but even they were up to only a 26.5% pressure rate without blitzing. I don't think this tells the whole story of how the Saints slowed down the Bucs -- losing three of the four biggest options in the passing game by halftime played a huge role -- but it's definitely part of the solution.
Team to avoid in the playoffs: New England. This one is a little juicy, isn't it? The Patriots rank second in the league in terms of pressure rate without blitzing (behind the Dolphins). They held Brady and the Bucs to 19 points in a 19-17 defeat earlier this season, and that was before the New England defense made its dramatic leap forward. Since Week 7, the Patriots have pressured opposing quarterbacks on nearly 31% of their dropbacks without blitzing, and the 16.6 QBR they've allowed is the league's best by nearly nine full points.
The Bucs did narrowly pull out that game, but Patriots fans with longer memories can probably think of a couple of times in which a regular-season result didn't hold up in a Super Bowl rematch. In 2001, the Pats held the Greatest Show on Turf Rams to 24 points, but Brady's offense could muster only 10 points. Then, in 2007, the Patriots sealed their undefeated regular season with a 38-35 victory over the Giants in Week 17. Both times, facing the same opponent, the Super Bowl went in the other direction.
Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
Kryptonite: Turnovers
I don't like repeating possible kryptonite for different teams -- and turnovers make every team worse -- but the Rams' season might be even more easily explained by turnover margin than the Chiefs'. You've been able to essentially predict how Sean McVay's team did by looking at its turnover ratio so far this season. When the Rams have won or tied the turnover battle, they've gone 9-0. In those nine games, they've posted a turnover differential of plus-12. They've won seven turnover battles outright and tied twice, and those ties have been relatively close wins over the Colts and Buccaneers.
Guess what has happened when the Rams have lost the turnover battle? They've gone 0-4, posting a turnover margin of minus-9 in the process. They got out to early deficits against the Packers, Titans and 49ers and struggled while spending the rest of the game trying to catch up. They are built to play from ahead, when their pass rush can focus on getting after the quarterback and their play-action attack becomes even more potent. Take the running game out of the equation and it flusters them into making mistakes on offense and insisting after the game that they're a run-first football team when McVay's offense throws at the fourth-highest early-down rate in the league.
Team to avoid in the playoffs: Dallas. The Cowboys have forced takeaways on 18.2% of opposing drives this season, which leads all NFC teams. Over the past six weeks, this number has gone up to 21.8%, which is second in the league behind the Chiefs. The Rams have some wildly talented playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, but if anyone can match them, it's the Cowboys.