The last two weeks of the NFL season have turned the 2021 offseason quarterback carousel on its head. In Philadelphia, the idea that the Eagles might move on from Carson Wentz for rookie Jalen Hurts has gone from a thing you would say to troll Eagles fans to a thing you would say to excite Eagles fans.
Several train stops to the north, the Jets managed to break their own fans' hearts by upsetting the Rams on Sunday and losing a hold on the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft. It seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Jets would get rid of Sam Darnold and draft Trevor Lawrence, but now that it seems like the Clemson star quarterback is likely headed to the Jaguars with the top pick, the Jets have all options on the table.
Let's evaluate three big decision points for this offseason and figure out what might happen next, with the predicted dominoes that could fall. I'll use the ESPN Football Power Index's projected draft order as the expected draft order at the end of the season.
Each of these three scenarios is independent of one another, and I'll try to make each team's logic clear in why these moves might make sense. I'll use Spotrac's estimates for 2021 cap space, which will inform the decisions each team makes. Let's start with a scenario we couldn't possibly have considered before this season began:
Jump to a scenario:
The Eagles trade Carson Wentz
The Jets keep Sam Darnold
The Cowboys tag, trade Dak Prescott
Scenario 1: Carson Wentz on the move
As we've discussed over the past couple of weeks, if the Eagles decide that they want to move on from their former franchise quarterback, there's one team that is the most likely destination ...
The Eagles trade Wentz to the Colts for a third-round pick and a conditional 2022 selection.
The Colts are the best candidate for Wentz. Eagles fans won't be thrilled about the price tag, but the organization has virtually no leverage in making this deal and can't afford to take on an expensive replacement. The addition that makes this deal work is that conditional pick; let's say that the Eagles get a third-round pick in 2022 if Wentz makes it to the Pro Bowl or a second-round pick if he's a Pro Bowler and the Colts make it to the AFC Championship Game.
The Eagles would move forward with Jalen Hurts as their starter, but they would still want to add a backup in case Hurts struggles or gets injured. With limited cap space, the Eagles can pursue an old friend ...
The Bears trade QB Nick Foles to the Eagles for TE Zach Ertz and a 2021 sixth-round pick.
Chicago doesn't have much cap space either, but Ertz's $8.3 million salary would swap in as a replacement for Jimmy Graham, who is likely to be cut after the season. We all know how much general manager Ryan Pace loves his tight ends, and Ertz would step in alongside Cole Kmet in two-tight end sets for the Bears.
Foles has a $4 million base salary in 2021, which makes him financially feasible for his former team. What could the Bears do after parting ways with Foles?
Chicago signs QB Mitchell Trubisky to a four-year, $90 million deal.
I'm skeptical of Trubisky's recent resurgence given that much of it has come against middling or subpar pass defenses, but the Bears spent years convincing themselves that he was their starter of the future. Chicago has a 33% chance of making it to the playoffs per FPI, and it wouldn't be shocking to see the organization give Trubisky the credit for turning around its season if it does make it into the postseason.
The only guaranteed money in this contract would be a $20 million signing bonus and a $2 million base salary for 2021, so Trubisky would really be on a one-year, $22 million pact. The Bears would structure the deal this way to keep his cap number at $9 million while simultaneously maintaining the flexibility to get out of the deal after 2021 if he disappoints in his last shot at the starting job.
Washington trades a third-round pick to the Jets for QB Sam Darnold.
With the Jets planning to use the second overall pick on a quarterback, they'll end up taking the best available offer for their previous starter. Darnold hasn't looked great at any point in 2020, with only a throw or two per game hinting at his possible upside. Washington might be ready to move on from 2019 first-round pick Dwayne Haskins after he was spotted at a club after Sunday's loss to the Seahawks, and while Alex Smith's comeback story is incredible, the veteran's $18.8 million base salary in 2021 is unguaranteed.
Washington could approach the Darnold addition in a number of ways. It could decline Darnold's fifth-year option for 2022 and let the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft play out the final year of his rookie deal, although team owner Daniel Snyder might not be particularly excited about using the franchise tag on a quarterback after the Kirk Cousins fiasco.
The team could also pick up that option and essentially commit to Darnold as its starter in 2021 and 2022. Alternately, it could try to negotiate a new contract with Darnold, one that would likely guarantee him more money in 2021 while also allowing the organization to get out of the deal after this upcoming season.
The Broncos trade the 13th pick and a third-round selection in 2021, their first-round pick in 2022 and WR Tim Patrick to the Bengals for the third overall pick.
Denver general manager John Elway has already surrounded his quarterback with weapons, but with Drew Lock struggling in his first full season as the starter, the Hall of Famer might want to take a bigger swing at a quarterback prospect. This would likely be a move to get ahead of the Panthers at No. 4 and go after either North Dakota State's Trey Lance or BYU's Zach Wilson. If Elway plans on keeping coach Vic Fangio around, he could trust Fangio to take care of the defense and hope that an upgrade at quarterback would be enough to push Denver back into the playoffs.
The Bengals would miss out on the opportunity to take Oregon offensive tackle Penei Sewell, but with 2019 first-rounder Jonah Williams expected to stick at left tackle, Cincinnati really doesn't need to address that position with another premium pick. Trading down would give it valuable draft assets to build a deeper team around Burrow. The Bengals would also get a breakout wide receiver in Patrick, who is a restricted free agent and unlikely to figure in Denver's future with Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy there. Patrick would step in as the replacement for A.J. Green in three-wideout sets.
As for the trade, it took two first-rounders and a fourth-rounder for the Bills to move up from No. 9 to No. 4 to draft wide receiver Sammy Watkins in 2014; this is a slightly larger jump and would cost more as a result.
Scenario 2: The Jets keep Sam Darnold
With the Jets dropping out of the top spot in the 2021 draft, their plans for the quarterback position might have changed. If they aren't particularly enthused about their options after Trevor Lawrence in the class, they might just prefer to run things back with Darnold, who's still only 23. If that's true, the Jets could potentially pick up a haul of talent in the process.
The Jets trade the No. 2 overall pick and their fourth-round selection to the 49ers for their first- and second-round picks in 2021, first- and third-round picks in 2022 and WR Jalen Hurd.
With the Jets sporting one of the NFL's thinnest rosters and the 49ers one of the deepest, the two sides might be aligned on a trade. The Jets aren't one player away and need to add multiple pieces on both sides of the ball. New York doesn't need a left tackle with Mekhi Becton impressing as a rookie, which would take them out of the conversation for offensive tackle Penei Sewell, and they should still be able to grab help at receiver and elsewhere on the line.
This deal would leave the Jets with three first-round picks and eight picks in the top three rounds of April's draft (the 49ers' top pick is projected to be No. 12 overall). That's how a team can rebuild a franchise around a quarterback with upside.
For the 49ers, this would be a deal they would make if they fell in love with one of the other quarterbacks in this class -- Justin Fields, Zach Wilson or Trey Lance. General manager John Lynch would be beating out teams like the Panthers, who could draft a signal-caller at No. 4, or the Broncos and Bears, who could try to trade up. The 49ers could rightfully suggest that a stable, solid quarterback is all they need to make it back to the Super Bowl. Going with a cheaper option under center would free up $20 million or so in cap space, which would allow the Niners to retain more of their pending free agents, a group that includes left tackle Trent Williams and defensive backs Jaquiski Tartt, and Richard Sherman.
Of course, the 49ers would probably pair this move with one that the Jets wouldn't love ...
The 49ers trade QB Jimmy Garoppolo to the Patriots for a 2021 fifth-round pick.
Once, it seemed like Bill Belichick did Kyle Shanahan a favor by sending him a starting quarterback for a second-round pick. Now, with Garoppolo struggling to stay healthy, Shanahan could return the favor. The Patriots have only Jarrett Stidham under contract at quarterback next year, and they are one of the few teams that have the cap room to easily absorb the two years and $50.6 million in unguaranteed money remaining on Garoppolo's deal.
The Niners get a draft pick in lieu of cutting Garoppolo, and the Eastern Illinois product reunites in the other conference with a coaching staff desperately in need of a long-term option. This is an easy victory.
Washington signs QB Cam Newton to a one-year, $7.5 million deal.
Newton hasn't had an incredible season with the Patriots, as the former MVP ranks 29th in the league in Total QBR. It's also fair to note that he has been playing with the worst group of weapons in football and was waylaid for several weeks by the coronavirus, which dragged down his numbers. Crucially, Newton has made it through the full season without getting injured, which might have seemed impossible after his 2018 and 2019 campaigns.
Washington might be rebuilding at quarterback after this season, and Ron Rivera saw how far a healthy Newton can take a team in years past. This deal assumes that Washington moves on from Alex Smith, but it wouldn't preclude the team from bringing somebody in to compete with Newton.
The Vikings trade QB Kirk Cousins to the Colts for a third-round pick.
Minnesota went through a quasi-rebuild this offseason but didn't do enough to clear out its cap situation. After re-signing running back Dalvin Cook, the Vikings could just commit to the run-first approach Mike Zimmer has wanted for years and save money at quarterback in the process. General manager Rick Spielman conspicuously didn't include a no-trade clause in Cousins' most recent extension, and a trade would free up $10 million in 2021. More importantly, his $35 million base salary in 2022 guarantees on the third day of the 2021 league year, meaning that the team would not be on the hook for what amounts to a $45 million cap hit for the former Washington quarterback in 2022.
Cousins would step in as an above-average starter for a Colts team that has the cap room to support his salary and the ability to win 10-plus games on a regular basis with that sort of passer at the helm. Indy general manager Chris Ballard would essentially be picking up the two-year, $66 million extension the Vikings handed Cousins in March. I'm not sure that's a great deal in a league in which the salary cap could be $175 million next year, but given that the Colts are down to Jacob Eason at quarterback after 2020, they might prefer Cousins to someone like Ryan Fitzpatrick at a much lower price.
Minnesota sends a 2021 fourth-round pick (via the Bills) to the Jaguars for QB Gardner Minshew.
Zimmer & Co. would still need a starting quarterback in that scenario, and while they could use a first-round pick on one of the rookies -- the Vikings are projected to pick No. 14 overall -- Minshew might be a more compelling option at an even cheaper cost. He has been just slightly below league average over the past two seasons, which is valuable for a guy making $850,000 per year. Minshew will make that same amount in 2021 and somewhere around $2 million in 2022, making him an underrated stopgap, particularly for a team with cap issues.
The Jaguars could use Minshew as a backup to potential No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence, but getting a draft pick for a player they don't intend to play after 2020 would be a plus. And Jacksonville might prefer a more experienced option to help work with Lawrence ...
The Jaguars sign QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to a one-year, $6.5 million deal.
While the 38-year-old veteran surely wants an opportunity to start somewhere, that option might not be available. Fitzpatrick is a valuable mentor for young quarterbacks, and he would be in a position to play if Lawrence were to get injured during his rookie campaign or struggle in training camp. It would also allow the well-traveled Harvard product to complete the set and play for all three Florida teams. Jacksonville would be his ninth team since he entered the NFL as a seventh-round pick in 2005.
Scenario 3: The Cowboys trade Dak Prescott
Dallas' disastrous 2020 season made it clear that it can't win if it has just any quarterback under center. The Cowboys sorely missed Prescott. At the same time, the team's issues on defense even before Prescott broke his ankle suggest that the Cowboys have major holes at multiple levels. Giving Prescott a $37.7 million franchise tag against a reduced cap will only make it harder for Dallas to address those defensive concerns, and it's clear that Prescott won't sign the sort of expansive, five- or six-year deal that the team wants.
I think the Cowboys should just give Prescott the deal he wants, but if they didn't do it last year, why would they do it this spring? To avoid a situation similar to what we saw with Cousins in Washington, the team would need to use the franchise tag on Prescott and then trade him to a franchise willing to meet his contractual specifications. The result would probably get a bit of media attention ...
The Cowboys trade Prescott to the Patriots for the No. 15 overall pick in 2021.
There are only a few teams that could realistically absorb that $37.7 million cap number, with the Patriots and Colts as the two most obvious candidates. Bill Belichick wouldn't typically trade his first-round pick for a veteran player, but the Pats were irrelevant for most of this season without an above-average quarterback. They would get Prescott under center, bring back many of their opt-outs from the 2020 season, and still have plenty of cap space to go after weapons for their new quarterback. Prescott would need to sign his franchise tag, but it would be quickly supplemented by a three-year, $120 million extension.
The move would free up cap space for the Cowboys to pursue defensive help in free agency. It would also leave them with enough draft ammunition to make another move ...
Dallas sends the Nos. 8 and 15 picks and a 2022 second-round pick to the Jets for the No. 2 overall selection.
Trading up would get the Cowboys ahead of the Panthers and get them the second quarterback in this draft class. While Prescott was an impressive bargain as a fourth-round pick, they would have a cost-controlled quarterback for the next three years, surrounded with weapons and a healthier offensive line. The Cowboys can do this only if they love one of the non-Lawrence quarterbacks -- likely Justin Fields, Zach Wilson or Trey Lance -- but this would be a way to quickly retool their roster. If they get the quarterback pick right and invest wisely on defense, they could emerge as a Super Bowl contender.
The Jets would move down and pick up two more first-round picks in this draft, giving them three total (Nos. 8, 15 and 25). After the trade, they would have the flexibility to play out Darnold's fourth-year option, but there's another move they could make ...
The Jets send a fifth-round pick to the Bears for Nick Foles.
New York general manager Joe Douglas was in Philadelphia when Foles came off the bench for the Eagles and helped them win a Super Bowl. I'm not sure that's in the cards for the Jets, but Foles would be valuable competition for Darnold and a potential replacement over the next two years. This would be a particularly useful addition if the Jets hired someone with Andy Reid ties to take over as their coach, such as current Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. This move would leave the Bears in need of a veteran quarterback ...
Chicago signs Ryan Fitzpatrick to a one-year, $6.5 million deal.
If Fitz wants to try to win a Super Bowl on a contender as a starting quarterback before he retires, this would be his best option. The Bears would have suspect weapons if they don't re-sign wide receiver Allen Robinson, but they have the top-10 defense Fitzpatrick would need to make a meaningful run toward the postseason. And given that Fitzpatrick would come at a modest cost, the Bears might actually be able to bring back Robinson and upgrade at quarterback in one fell swoop.
Mitchell Trubisky signs a one-year, $4 million deal with the Saints.
Assuming Drew Brees retires, the Saints would move forward with Taysom Hill as their starting quarterback and need to go after a backup. Sean Payton could bring back Jameis Winston, but if he's going to be installing the run-heavy offense we've seen for Hill on a full-time basis, Trubisky (or maybe even Tyrod Taylor) would make more sense as the primary backup.
Payton once said that the Saints liked Trubisky coming out of North Carolina, and New Orleans would be making a bet that Payton can get more out of the fourth-year passer's athletic gifts than his coaching staffs in Chicago.