The Eagles benched Carson Wentz and went to rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts in the hopes of saving a lost season. On Sunday, Hurts did just enough to keep Philadelphia's playoff hopes alive. In his first career start, Hurts threw for 167 yards and added 106 more on the ground in leading the Eagles to a 24-21 upset of the 10-3 Saints. At 4-8-1, they are still somehow in the NFC East race, one win behind two teams whose starting quarterbacks weren't able to finish their respective games Sunday.
While Eagles coach Doug Pederson said the move to Hurts was not permanent and he refused to confirm after the game whether the second-round pick would start in Week 15 against the Cardinals, benching Hurts after the win over New Orleans would be an inexplicable decision. The Philadelphia offense was better with Hurts on the field, at least in this first start.
What changed? How did the team pull off the upset? And if Hurts continues to play well, what does the future hold for the organization and its deposed starting quarterback? Could we really have seen Wentz's last game in an Eagles uniform? Let's get to all of that, starting with what we saw Sunday:
Jump to a topic:
What the offense looked like with Hurts
Can Hurts keep it up this season?
Why the Eagles are likely stuck with Wentz
Ranking the potential Wentz destinations
How the Eagles' offense changed
The first play the offense ran was a quick introduction to the past decade of running quarterbacks in the NFL. Hurts' first play as a starter was "inverted veer" or "power read," the same run concept Cam Newton took to the league from Auburn. Newton ran it in Carolina. Colin Kaepernick ran it in San Francisco. Lamar Jackson has run it a bunch in Baltimore, including on a 37-yard touchdown against the Cowboys in Week 13. And of course, Taysom Hill, the quarterback on the other side of the field Sunday, has run it with the Saints. It went for only a few yards, but it was the first example of how the Philadelphia offense was going to be different:
The Eagles start the game with inverted veer pic.twitter.com/PC8OHRmoM9
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) December 14, 2020
We saw more designed quarterback run concepts from the Eagles as the game went on. Hurts ran quarterback power without any read attached in short yardage, including on a fourth-and-1 conversion early in the game. He had a designed quarterback draw in the middle of the field, just as many teams run inside the red zone. The Eagles also used orbit motion to show a triple-option look and then fooled the Saints with an end around to Jalen Reagor, something similar to what we've seen the Chiefs do with Patrick Mahomes and their bevy of weapons.
They didn't run many zone-read concepts, but the few they did were mostly successful. Hurts picked up a key first down deep in his own territory by outrunning Trey Hendrickson on the edge for 15 yards on second-and-11. He was impactful on the designed runs, but he really tormented the Saints as a scrambler. His four scrambles produced 50 yards and four first downs, including consecutive runs for 40 yards at the end of the first half. Those scrambles should have produced a field goal, only for kicker Jake Elliott to fire a chip shot off the upright.
One of those scrambles came off mesh, the classic Air Raid concept the Eagles have run through the entirety of the Pederson era and one Hurts ran plenty of times under Lincoln Riley in Oklahoma's version of the Air Raid a year ago. I'm not sure they ever really got away from mesh with Wentz as their starter, but it should be telling that the first time they asked Hurts to throw the ball on third down, they called mesh. The second time they asked Hurts to throw the ball on third down, they ... called mesh again. Hurts hit Reagor for a 39-yard gain:
When coaches teach mesh at the lower levels of football, the two crossing receivers drill the habit of running their routes close enough to each other that they're actually able to high-five as they run past. Watch that replay and you'll see Reagor high-five Travis Fulgham as he passes before heading upfield for Hurts' biggest completion of the game. He also scrambled for another third-down mesh call for a conversion. In what might have been a surprise, there weren't really many RPOs for the Eagles; I saw one for a 6-yard completion to Zach Ertz.
It wasn't all perfect. They misfired on a pair of fourth downs. One appeared to be either a misread from Hurts or a blown blocking assignment, which let Malcolm Jenkins shoot into the backfield to make an easy play. Hurts was stood up on a fourth-and-inches sneak. Overall, though, Philadelphia became the first team with a 100-yard rusher against the Saints since 2017 and did it twice, with both Hurts and Miles Sanders topping the century mark. Sanders got most of his yards on one play, an 82-yard touchdown run in the second quarter.
Did Hurts really help make this play happen? It was more plausibly just a great bit of blocking from the Eagles and a couple of missteps from the Saints. Dennis Allen's defense didn't fit this zone run well, with Shy Tuttle getting blown off the line of scrimmage and Kwon Alexander trying to shoot into the backfield behind the block to make the play. There's nobody in the gap Sanders hits when he turns upfield, Ertz blocks Janoris Jenkins and Sanders just has to beat Jenkins in the open field. He uses a stiff-arm to get by his former teammate, and nobody touches him the rest of the way.
Sanders scored twice. Hurts added the third with a perfect back-shoulder throw to Alshon Jeffery in the first half. Hurts did miss an open Reagor on what could have been a big gain on a deep crosser, but he also lost out on a nice completion when the refs made a bad call on an Ertz catch along the sideline. Hurts averaged only 5.6 yards per attempt, which isn't anything to write home about, but he ended the day with the fourth-best QBR (58.5) we've seen from an Eagles starter in a game this season. Why?
He improved the offense by eliminating many of the disastrous plays that have come to define Wentz's season. The former starter had been sacked at least three times in each of his starts and turned the ball over 19 times in 12 games. Facing one of the league's most devastating pass rushes, Hurts wasn't sacked and nearly went the entire game without a turnover before a late fumble gave the Saints a glimmer of hope. He had a would-be interception dropped, but the rookie was mostly safe with the football and didn't create problems by extending plays in places where he couldn't account for everybody around him. That alone is a huge upgrade from Wentz's problems this season.
The threat of Hurts as a runner encouraged Pederson to get more aggressive on fourth downs. Even though the Eagles were stopped on a pair of fourth-down tries, Pederson went for it four times on fourth-and-short. One of those plays, on a fourth-and-2 in the red zone, produced the touchdown pass to Jeffery. Some coaches would have been happy to settle for points against a tough defense with their debuting quarterback in the game, especially after failing on fourth-and-short earlier in the half. Pederson was not, and it helped win his team the game.
Hurts also took some of the load off the Eagles' defense, which has been stuck on the field week after week as a product of their ineffective offense. Before Sunday, they had faced 799 snaps on defense, the seventh-highest total in the league and an average of 66.5 plays per game. Against the Saints, they were on the field for only 63 plays, and even that total came about because Hurts fumbled as Philly was trying to run out the clock. The defense struggled in the second half when it lost three starters in the secondary and started whiffing on tackles, but the D-line had enough in the tank in the fourth quarter to stop Hill in key moments and come away with a victory.
Is this offense sustainable?
In the short term, there's no reason this version of the Philadelphia offense can't continue to be functional. Hurts is going to be a problem for teams on designed runs and (especially) as a scrambler when plays break down, just as Hill has been for the Saints. Hurts was an effective passer during his time at Alabama and Oklahoma, and while he won't have as many easy completions at the pro level as he did under Riley, he didn't look overwhelmed or out of his element as a thrower against arguably the league's best defense.
One of the reasons the Saints have been able to run an offense like this with Hill is their offensive line, which is generally considered one of the best in football. I was concerned that the Eagles, who are down four of their top six linemen, might not have the line to pull this sort of running game off, but they beat up New Orleans. With the Cardinals and Cowboys coming up over the next two weeks, Hurts and Sanders should continue to be effective running the ball. Their Week 17 game against Washington, which ranks 10th against the run by DVOA, could end up deciding the division.
There's nothing in Hurts' performance that makes me think the Eagles should treat this as a one-off and push Wentz back into the starting lineup for the remainder of the regular season. The offense bogged down under Wentz, who had lost his confidence and struggled to trust his reads on a week-to-week basis. It wasn't perfect Sunday, but Hurts made fewer mistakes and produced a more explosive attack against a previously dominant defense.
What happens in the long term is another story, but that has more to do with the position the Eagles find themselves in financially than anything else. If Hurts plays well, while it might help salvage a lost season and push a 7-8-1 Eagles team into the postseason, it could leave general manager Howie Roseman & Co. in an awkward position. The Eagles have made a significant commitment to Wentz, and if they want to get out of that deal anytime soon, it's going to take something very creative ...
Why the Eagles (probably) are tied to Wentz for another year
Wentz's four-year, $128 million extension doesn't start paying out base salaries until the 2021 season. He has already received $54.3 million in bonuses from that deal, but the team still has significant guarantees remaining on that extension. Getting out of those guarantees after benching Wentz is going to be tough, although there's a path to getting there.
Let's start with the organizational problem: The Eagles are in dire salary-cap straits. No team was prepared for the cap to fall to $175 million in 2021, but outside of the Saints, there's no other organization that has been squeezing short-term cap space to try to build a winner more than Philly. Roseman's team is currently $64 million over the projected cap in 2021, and that's without re-signing guys such offensive lineman Jason Peters and defensive backs Jalen Mills and Nickell Robey-Coleman or extending Dallas Goedert. The Eagles might not want to bring back those pending free agents, but they'll need to go after replacements for their roles in the lineup.
To get under the cap, they will need to make significant moves. Cutting Ertz and wide receivers DeSean Jackson and Marquise Goodwin frees up a little more than $14 million. Designating Jeffery as a post-June 1 release would free up another $13 million. They can restructure the deals of defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and right tackle Lane Johnson to create more cap room, and if Wentz were having a normal season, they would do the same with their starting quarterback.
Wentz has a $34.6 million cap hold for 2021, the sixth largest in the NFL. The Eagles can't restructure that figure because they'll have to worry about possibly cutting or trading him after 2021, which means they're locked in to a massive number with little flexibility. Cutting Wentz outright would force the Eagles to eat $59.2 million in dead money in 2021; given their need for cap space, it's an obvious non-starter.
The Eagles could designate him as a post-June 1 release and cut him before the third day of the new league year in March, when his $10 million roster bonus for 2021 would guarantee. (If you're confused as to how you can cut a player in March and have it register as a post-June release, welcome to the world of the NFL salary cap.) Philly would still be on the hook for that $59.2 million in dead money, but it would be able to spread it over two years, with $34.6 million on the cap in 2021 and $24.6 million on the cap in 2022.
This would typically be considered an unimaginable amount of dead money, but we've seen teams set and reset the dead-money bar over the past two years as they've moved on from Antonio Brown (Steelers) and Brandin Cooks (Rams). With that being said, given that the Eagles would be in the same cap straits without Wentz and wouldn't have much money to spend on even a veteran backup to play behind Hurts, this also seems unlikely.
They could trade Wentz after June 1, although they would eat his $10 million roster bonus, $19.5 million in dead money in 2021 and $24.5 million in 2022, and be unable to use the money they saved to go after a starting quarterback until after the deal was consummated. This probably would make sense only if the Eagles were going to make a challenge trade for a cheaper quarterback, like Jimmy Garoppolo on a restructured deal or -- save your gasps, Eagles fans -- Nick Foles. Again, this doesn't seem likely. I don't think there's more than a 1% chance of any of those three situations playing out this spring, even if Hurts were to excel.
The one scenario in which the Eagles could theoretically move on from Wentz would be via trade this spring. On the third day of the 2021 league year, Wentz's $10 million roster bonus for 2021 and $15 million of his $20 million base salary for 2022 guarantee. If the Eagles want to get him off their roster, they would need to trade him before those guarantees trigger. Picking up those guarantees makes it extremely likely that Wentz will be on the Philadelphia roster through the end of 2022, given that $15 million of his $22 million salary that year will already be guaranteed.
Making that trade would still cost the Eagles $33.8 million in dead money on their cap in 2021, but they would save a marginal amount in 2021 and have Wentz off their cap altogether in 2022. If they think Wentz is toast and want to move on while saving as much money as possible, a trade before that third day of the new league year in March is the way to go. We've seen deals happen there in the past; the Chiefs, for example, agreed to send Alex Smith to Washington in January 2018 and then actually consummated the deal once the new league year began.
I'm not sure Wentz would net a significant return. The team doesn't have much leverage, as he is coming off a disastrous season and hasn't been able to stay healthy for much of his career. The mere fact that the Eagles would be willing to bench and trade the guy they had regarded as a franchise quarterback as recently as a year ago might scream red flag to interested parties. My guess is that they would be looking at a midround pick, with the possibility of a conditional pick if he hits certain thresholds in his new digs.
Whichever team that traded for Wentz would be acquiring a new quarterback on a four-year, $98.4 million contract. While that isn't exorbitant money, it would be picking up those $40.4 million in guarantees and basically be locked in to paying Wentz $47.4 million over the next two seasons. That's more than Teddy Bridgewater got over the first two years of his deal with the Panthers ($33 million guaranteed, $42 million practically guaranteed), and that contract came on a larger cap with no draft-pick compensation attached.
With the cap shrinking, teams such as the Bears and Saints probably wouldn't be able to create the sort of short-term room they would need to go after Wentz. The Jets and Jaguars, for example, are more likely to draft a quarterback and rebuild around them on the cheap. And while the Eagles once dealt Donovan McNabb within the NFC East, I can't imagine that they would do the same thing with a younger quarterback in Wentz, which would rule out the Washington Football Team or a mind-boggling move to the Cowboys.
Get rid of the teams that either don't need Wentz or can't afford him, and you're really left with only a four-team market for the Eagles. In order of relative likelihood ...
The potential Wentz destinations
4. San Francisco 49ers
I wrote recently about how the 49ers are in difficult cap straits next year, which makes the possibility of fitting Wentz into their lineup a near impossibility. Veteran cornerback Richard Sherman said this week that he expects to leave the 49ers after the season as a result of their cap concerns, and he's not the only player who will be on the way out.
If the Niners want to make a change at quarterback, though, they have the flexibility to create significant short-term cap space by cutting Jimmy Garoppolo. Releasing the oft-injured Garoppolo would free up $23.6 million in cap space in 2021, a close match for the $25.4 million cap figure Wentz would occupy after being traded. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said in October that it was only a matter of time before Wentz turned things around; maybe he meant a matter of a move instead.
3. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have struggled with inconsistent play from Drew Lock, who is still on a rookie deal and could be part of a package heading back to the Eagles as a low-cost backup for Hurts. John Elway's team could also include someone such as wideout Tim Patrick, who has impressed this season but may be subject to a restricted free agent offer sheet on a team that is likely to move forward with Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler as its starting wide receivers.
The Broncos have only $25.5 million in cap room, but they could free up an additional $29.9 million by cutting pass-rusher Von Miller and cornerback A.J. Bouye. Elway has spent years searching for his Peyton Manning replacement; the 6-foot-5 Wentz could be his next target. Given the weapons the Broncos have on offense, this could be a dream landing spot for the North Dakota State product.
2. New England Patriots
While the Patriots were in a messy cap situation this season, Bill Belichick's team has $68.8 million in space in 2021, a number that could rise if the Patriots move on from some of their veterans. The only quarterback on the roster under contract next year is Jarrett Stidham, as both Cam Newton and Brian Hoyer will be unrestricted free agents. Stidham has posted a 14.4 QBR over his two pro seasons, which ranks 70th out of 74 passers with 10 attempts or more.
Belichick has a well-known habit of buying low on players he thinks still have superstar talent, an instinct that led him to acquire contributors such as Corey Dillon and Randy Moss in the past. Wentz would be his biggest bet, but for a team with veteran talent on defense and no clear path to a long-term quarterback solution, Belichick could be interested if Wentz became available.
1. Indianapolis Colts
Rightfully, many of the people who have wondered about a possible Wentz trade have linked him to the Colts. Wentz was close with Colts coach Frank Reich when Reich served as Eagles offensive coordinator in 2016 and 2017. Philip Rivers and Jacoby Brissett are both free agents after the season, leaving Indy with $67 million in cap space and no quarterback on the roster besides rookie fourth-round pick Jacob Eason. The Colts could use Wentz more than any other team, and we just saw general manager Chris Ballard send a first-round pick to the 49ers to pick up a difference-maker in DeForest Buckner.
I don't think there's a significant chance -- likely not more than 5% -- that the Eagles trade Wentz before the 2021 season begins. They've already invested too much to settle for a midround pick, and Wentz hasn't been this bad for most of his pro career. If Wentz were to get traded, though, the overwhelming favorites to acquire him would be the Colts. And if Hurts continues to play this well over the next three weeks, the Eagles might be willing to settle for pennies on the dollar to move on from a significant contract they regret.