Editor's note: This story was originally published on Dec. 1, prior to the news via ESPN's Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen on Tuesday that Carson Wentz had been benched in favor of Jalen Hurts.
Four months ago, Carson Wentz was a consensus top-10 quarterback who channeled a young Ben Roethlisberger with his size, agility and a knack for splash plays.
"I've seen Houdini in him," said one NFC exec whose team has played against Wentz plenty over the past five years.
Like Harry Houdini's famous routines, Wentz's game is now handcuffed.
Wentz's career has reached a boiling point in 2020, accentuated by a curious lack of playmaking, an affinity for turnovers and a Philadelphia Eagles offense as injured as it is inept.
NFL executives and coaches ranked Wentz, 27, a former No. 2 overall pick, as the league's No. 8 quarterback in ESPN's summer project ranking top players at each position.
In June 2019, Wentz earned a four-year, $128 million extension just three years into his NFL career, cementing his place as the franchise's long-term solution at quarterback.
That same player now ranks 27th in ESPN's Total QBR (48.9), slightly ahead of Nick Foles, Nick Mullens, Drew Lock and Sam Darnold. Wentz is on pace for at least 20 interceptions after throwing no more than seven in each of his past three seasons.
A pair of lethargic performances against the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns (back-to-back losses) prompted the Eagles to increase backup Jalen Hurts' first-team practices before Monday's 23-17 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, which featured another shaky performance from Wentz.
Now, Wentz's job in Philadelphia is on the line.
After speaking with several NFL execs and team sources, ESPN breaks down what happened and what might be next for one of the game's most enigmatic passers.
How things have gone wrong in 2020
When it comes to uncertainty regarding Wentz, one NFC exec sees a loose parallel to a quarterback Wentz played against in Week 11.
"He's going through what Baker [Mayfield] is going through in Cleveland, where maybe there's a ceiling to his play, but at least Baker has an elite running game, and they can hide him," the exec said. "Wentz is out there taking all the bullets."
The prevailing theme with Wentz is that he is pressing because of a lack of playmakers around him. Wentz was surrounded by studs during his star turn in 2017: peak Alshon Jeffery, peak Zach Ertz and good hybrid pieces, with Lane Johnson at age 27 and Jason Peters at a more palatable 35 protecting him. Frank Reich, who connected well with Wentz, was the offensive coordinator. The result was glorious, with Wentz tracking for an MVP campaign, with 33 touchdowns, seven interceptions and 3,296 yards in 13 games, prior to a season-ending knee injury.
Now Wentz's top five pass-catchers -- Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and rookie Jalen Reagor -- have missed a combined 29 games. Center Jason Kelce is the only starting offensive lineman from last season who hasn't missed significant time. "Not many young quarterbacks can win that way," an NFC exec said. "There's just not much support."
At Wentz's best, he's a home run hitter, a reactionary splash playmaker, more artist than scientist. He has made off-balance, dynamic throws that few in the NFL can complete. But those moments of brilliance have turned into forced turnovers (15 interceptions, 10 fumbles) and sacks (46, most in the NFL by 11).
"He just looks like a guy who's trying to do too much," said a veteran NFL defensive coach who played Wentz this season. "He's got all the tools, and that's still obvious. He still scares you more than most quarterbacks. He's trying to make big plays when they aren't there."
Another NFC exec says Eagles coach Doug Pederson should have simplified the game for Wentz.
"He had too much on his plate at the earlier part of the year, in terms of operating at the line of scrimmage," the exec said. "In recent games, they've taken some of that away and asked him to just play. He's pressing because he doesn't trust the players around him, and then you mix in all of the playcalls and checks, and it's a lot."
The Eagles believed that Wentz's interceptions were a byproduct of aggressive decision-making rather than misreads, but evaluators have seen an unsure quarterback lacking instinct in recent weeks.
The team wanted to strengthen the marriage between the running game and play-action. Hiring senior offensive assistant Rich Scangarello, the former Broncos offensive coordinator, was a helpful step. But despite recording the 10th-most passing attempts off play-action (88) through 10 games, the Eagles ranked 24th in play-action passing yardage (471) for a league-worst average of 5.35 yards per attempt.
The Eagles ranked 31st in yards after catch (621) through the first 11 weeks, slightly ahead of the Browns (584). Easy yards are nonexistent for this team.
Complicating matters is Ertz, Wentz's favorite target. He's 30 and averaging 7.4 yards per catch, and he underwent rocky contract negotiations with the team in the preseason. The Eagles are high on Goedert, who is five years younger than Ertz and in the third year of his rookie deal.
All of these factors hamper Wentz more than they do, say, Jared Goff, who will forever be linked to Wentz after going No. 1 ahead of Wentz in 2016.
"I think [Wentz] would have more success than Goff in that [Rams] system because of all the bootlegs they run," an AFC exec said. "They have two good receivers, two good tight ends, a structured running game and a ton of play-action that gives you easy yards."
Make no mistake: There's baggage with Philly that many believe has affected Wentz. That's the team's decision to draft quarterback Jalen Hurts in the second round.
Wentz had overcome all the well-worn challenges: watching Nick Foles' improbable Super Bowl run after Wentz's ACL/LCL injury, the long-term durability concerns, the leadership questions. Two teammates say Wentz became a better leader by casting a wider net in the locker room, instead of isolating with his close friends, like he did in earlier years. He was stellar during a four-game winning streak in late 2019, completing 117 of 173 passes (67.6%) for 1,199 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions with practice squad players at key positions.
Safety Jalen Mills told me in August that Wentz is "a great leader for our team."
Using a second-round pick on a former national champion in Hurts was a bold move by Philadelphia, and a source with knowledge of the Wentz-Eagles dynamic said Wentz was not exactly thrilled with the pick.
"All that ground he gained over Nick, everything he fought past to get to this point, you pull it right back," the source said. "Here is your franchise quarterback, the guy you paid a lot of money to keep long-term, and he's having to prove himself all over again."
A trade can work -- with some caveats
The Eagles have given no indication that they are moving on from Wentz after this season. But if they do, here are three realities:
Wentz is virtually uncuttable in 2021.
The best way to part ways with Wentz might be via trade.
Wentz would have trade value -- serious trade value, depending on whom you ask.
Let's start with the contract. This is about as ironclad as it gets. One league exec with direct knowledge of the deal said there's virtually no way out of it because of its structure, including a massive dead-money hit of $59.2 million if Wentz is released in 2021.
The team could spread that number over multiple years by designating Wentz a post-June 1 release, but the dead money must be addressed regardless. This deal was done to not cut him in the first three years.
The Eagles finalized the contract in 2019, with immediate cap flexibility in mind, loading future years with bonuses to spread the hit. They just paid a $30 million option bonus in March, which prorates from now until 2024.
That leaves a $34.67 million cap hit in 2021, which is not exactly team-friendly with the looming salary-cap decrease to as low as $175 million because of financial losses from the coronavirus pandemic.
Wentz's overall payout is reasonable: a $15.4 million base salary with a guaranteed $10 million roster bonus in 2021. The deal offers more flexibility in 2022, with $24.5 million in dead cap and an overall cap hit of $31.3. At that point, the Eagles will have paid Wentz nearly $82 million over three years and could call it a day.
"Otherwise, their options are really limited," the exec said. "They are stuck with him. They could ask him to take a pay cut, but that wouldn't save enough for the potential headache associated with that."
A trade would be costly, too, with the Eagles owing $33.8 million in dead cap to spread over two years if Wentz is dealt before the third day of the league year. His yearly cap hit would be off the books in that case, but that's still a lot of money to absorb without much return. Trading Wentz in 2022 would be more manageable, with his cap hit dropping to $24.5 million.
Wentz could always rework his deal to facilitate a trade if he wants a new start. In fact, Foles just did that this offseason to get to Chicago. The Bears reworked the $56.9 million remaining from his Jacksonville Jaguars deal into a three-year, $24 million pact with $21 million guaranteed.
Multiple execs believe that Wentz, if available, would garner more interest on the market than any other available quarterback, save Dak Prescott. One NFC exec said that putting Wentz in a system that uses his mobility as a weapon would be critical.
"Get him on the move and simplify things for him with a lot of play-action, and he can thrive," the exec said.
One team that might make too much sense to ignore, according to another exec: the Colts, who could offer a reunion with Reich.
The two had a strong connection in Philadelphia, and Indy could have a quarterback opening with Philip Rivers playing out a one-year deal. The drafting of Hurts could hurt the Eagles' leverage on a Wentz deal, which helps a team such as Indy.
The Colts are due $91.3 million in cap space next year, according to ESPN's Roster Management System, with Jacob Eason the only quarterback under contract in 2021.
"I think he would be a borderline MVP candidate with Indy," an NFL personnel evaluator said of Wentz.
What execs believe Philly should do
The feeling is almost unanimous among people in the NFL: The Eagles should stick with Wentz.
"I think they should. They should also be honest with themselves about what they have and have not done to make sure he's successful," an NFC exec said.
The Eagles need more speed on the perimeter, an improved (and healthier) line and a simplified game plan for Wentz, the exec said.
Uneasiness surrounds the Eagles' operation right now. Pederson won a Super Bowl with energy and savvy playcalling, but he looks increasingly frustrated with every Zoom news conference. Meanwhile, the fact that owner Jeffrey Lurie missed a recent game in Cleveland set off alarms in Philly.
Good franchises can separate themselves by how they help and protect their quarterbacks. The Eagles have Super Bowl pedigree, a well-respected owner and quality veterans on both sides of the ball. If Philly's evaluation says that Wentz can be salvaged, the Eagles should exhaust their resources to make that happen.
"I don't think what's around him is a total disaster," one NFL personnel evaluator said. "If they can find a way to go .500 over the next few weeks, that would be an act of God and gives them a chance [to] win it on the back end.
"When a player has his talent, the issues should be fixable."
Looming large is Hurts. Many execs like him as a player but thought a second-round pick was a little rich for him. Giving him another year in the third-down, change-of-pace role could work.
One AFC exec who thinks the Eagles should find an exit strategy with Wentz as early as next year believes that perhaps the North Dakota State product isn't built for the big stage. From Steve McNair to Joe Flacco, many small-school signal-callers have had sustained NFL success. But Wentz never faced elite competition in college, so it has always been an uphill climb during his pro career.
"Maybe this is just who he is," the exec said. "To make some of these mistakes in Year 5 is a problem."
Maybe one or two vintage Wentz performances could assuage concerns or, as one team source said, Wentz "just needs to see the ball go through the hoop."
And he needs to get the voices out of his head.
"It's as if all these different voices of how to play have influenced his pocket feel and presence and instincts and reaction," one NFL personnel evaluator said. "There's been so much talk around him about what he should be that that can be paralyzing. With some good coaching, it can come back together quickly."