It takes me 2½ hours to drive from my house to Foxborough, Massachusetts. I did it Saturday without stopping, which meant I didn't check my phone for 2½ hours on Saturday afternoon. This is a partial list of things that happened during that time:
The Baltimore Ravens placed six more players on the COVID-19 reserve list, bringing their total at the time to 18.
The Pittsburgh Steelers placed starting running back James Conner on the COVID-19 reserve list, meaning that he, along with all of those Ravens, would have to miss Tuesday's Steelers-Ravens game that has already been postponed twice.
The San Francisco 49ers learned that, due to state and local COVID-19 restrictions, they would not be able to play home games in Santa Clara, California, for the foreseeable future.
The Denver Broncos learned that all of their quarterbacks were ineligible for Sunday's game against the New Orleans Saints because one of them had tested positive for COVID-19 and the other three had been identified as high-risk close contacts of his and therefore would have to sit out at least five days.
Even for 2020, that is an eventful 2½ hours.
If you're looking for reasons to feel confident that the NFL can play this season to completion, Week 12 hasn't helped much. If the Ravens and Steelers do play Tuesday night, Baltimore will be more short-handed than any team has been for any game so far this season. And yes, that includes the Broncos, who literally had to play Sunday's game without a quarterback.
With COVID-19 cases spiking throughout the country, holiday travel making everybody nervous about further spikes and colder weather starting to limit outdoor activity, the NFL knows things are only going to get more difficult from here. The best case for the remaining five weeks of the regular season -- and the postseason that follows -- is that the league has to dance around continued chaos and bizarre situations like the ones that arose this week in Baltimore and Denver. The worst-case scenario is that it has to pause or cancel the remainder of the season because it reaches a point in which its protocols can't control the spread of the pandemic within team facilities.
The latter possibility feels more real than it has at any point since the protocols were agreed upon by the NFL and the NFL Players Association this summer, and it leads us to begin this week's overreactions column with the one that is dwarfing all of the others:
The NFL season is in peril
A situation like Denver's isn't going to sink this season. The league has been crystal clear since the season began that it's not going to make scheduling accommodations just because a team is short-handed at a specific position. The expanded practice squads and injured reserve flexibility are supposed to help teams overcome that, and the league's stance on Denver is that if the Broncos' quarterbacks had followed their protocols -- that is, worn masks at all times while at the team facility -- they would have been eligible to play on Sunday. The NFL and the NFLPA have maintained all along that they believe their protocols will work, if followed, and they have little sympathy for teams and players that don't follow them.
The Baltimore situation is a different matter, because that's a full-blown outbreak that the team and the league weren't able to contain in time for the game to be played on its originally scheduled date (Thanksgiving Day). The Ravens and the NFL believe they've identified the source of the outbreak. Baltimore disciplined a coach who was found in violation of the league's mask-wearing rules. But based on the rate at which people in the Ravens' facility were testing positive late last week, the league didn't feel it was safe for the Ravens to assemble as a team. Hence the postponements.
Again: The difference here is that the Broncos had one positive test and three players who broke the rules and had to sit out because of it, while the Ravens had a teamwide outbreak that has to be contained before they can be allowed to get together and play. It is the latter situation that sounds the alarm. If there's a week coming up in which multiple teams have Ravens-style outbreaks and multiple games have to be postponed because of it, that's when the season really starts to get wobbly. Because not only are the reschedulings getting more difficult, the sheer number of people getting sick would start to get high enough to convince the league it can't responsibly continue. That's what you're worried about if you're worried the league can't complete its season.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Or at least, no more than it's ever been. This NFL season has been in peril since the COVID-19 pandemic struck in March, and it will be until such time as it ends. As I have said and written many times, the NFL will not know whether it can pull off this season until it does -- until a Super Bowl champion has been crowned. Until then, the coronavirus hangs over the entire proceedings as an existential threat -- one the league knows and has always known could end up defeating its plans and protocols.
It's easy to understand how a fan or an outside observer might have grown complacent by this point. Every game but one that was scheduled to have been played by now has been played, and the one that hasn't is scheduled for Tuesday night. That in itself is an accomplishment of the protocols and a testament to the extent to which the vast majority of people involved have adhered to them.
However, it doesn't ensure anything yet to come. Week 12 has been fraught with warning signs. The NFL is not ignoring them. The league-mandated closing of team facilities on Monday and Tuesday is a nod toward the shifting landscape, and it's safe to assume it won't be the last action the league takes as it tries to finish this tightrope walk. If you thought the league wouldn't get this far, you were wrong. But if you think it is in the clear, you're also wrong. This season requires an unprecedented level of exhausting work. And as exhausted as we all might be by what it has taken so far, there's more left.
And now to some of the on-field overreactions from Week 12:
Ryan Fitzpatrick gives the Dolphins the best chance to make the playoffs
After four straight games with rookie Tua Tagovailoa as the starting quarterback, Miami turned back to the veteran Fitzpatrick on Sunday. The reason given was that Tagovailoa has a thumb injury, and after the game, coach Brian Flores said Tagovailoa would still be the starter once he is healthy. But Fitzpatrick was a solid 24-for-39 for 257 yards and two touchdowns in Sunday's easy 20-3 victory over the Jets. Didn't even throw an interception.
We know the Dolphins' locker room loves Fitzpatrick, and we know they were 3-3 and on a two-game winning streak when the team made the change to Tagovailoa. Miami (7-4) is a game behind Buffalo (8-3) in the AFC East standings and occupies one of the AFC's wild-card spots, and it seems to make sense for a contender to go with a veteran over a rookie.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Miami is 3-1 this season with Tagovailoa as starter and 4-3 with Fitzpatrick as starter. Did Tagovailoa play it a little too safe? Sure. Did he look like a rookie at times? Sure. Did he absolutely stink in Week 11? Yes, he did. But again, the Dolphins were 3-1 with him as the starter, and he hasn't thrown an interception yet.
This team is winning with its defense and special teams and only really needs a quarterback who won't make mistakes. And while Fitzpatrick has a ton more experience than Tagovailoa does, it's not as if that experience is devoid of mistakes. Fitzpatrick is always a risk for a multi-interception game, and the Dolphins don't need that if they want to make the playoffs. The ceiling is higher with Tagovailoa, and playing him did no harm, so there's no reason not to go back to him once his thumb is healed. That won't be the reason they don't make the playoffs, if they don't.
The Giants will win the NFC East
These are not your big brother's Giants. New York's victory over Cincinnati on Sunday was its third in a row. The Giants had not won three games in a row in four years -- since winning six in a row from Oct. 16 to Nov. 27, 2016, under Ben McAdoo. That's two head coaches ago!
As a result, the Giants are 4-7 and tied with Washington for first place in the historically dreadful NFC East. They also hold the tiebreaker over Washington by virtue of a 2-0 head-to-head record. The Eagles can move back in front of the Giants by a half-game with a home victory over Seattle on Monday Night Football, but (A) I don't know many people who are expecting that to happen, and (B) it would still be only a half-game.
The Giants are the division's hottest team right now, their defense is playing well and they have as good a chance as anyone to win it. Better, actually, if you just go by the math.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. If we don't think the host Eagles can beat Seattle on Monday, why do we think the Giants can beat the Seahawks next Sunday in Seattle? New York's next four games are against teams that have winning records -- the Seahawks, Cardinals, Browns and Ravens. The Giants finish with the Cowboys. If you think you're only going to need six wins to claim the NFC East this year, you still need to find two wins in there, and it's likely the Giants won't be favored in any of them until maybe the finale against Dallas.
Even after winning their past three games, the Giants still have the division's second-worst point differential. (Though, to be fair, it'll be third worst if the Eagles lose by six or more on Monday.) Add in the fact that starting quarterback Daniel Jones left Sunday's game with a hamstring injury that could cost him time, and the Giants have more of an uphill climb than the standings alone would have us believe.
A team is going to win the NFC East. The rules require it. But it's still way too early to feel like we know who it's going to be.
The Jets will have the first pick in the 2021 NFL draft
Sunday's loss to Miami dropped the Jets to 0-11. The Jaguars are right behind them at 1-10, but they came close to beating the Browns and could be a threat to win again if they get back the receivers who missed this game due to injury. And because Jacksonville beat the Colts in Week 1, the fact is that if the Jets lose the rest of their games, the pick will be theirs no matter what the Jags do.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Jets are averaging 13.8 points per game and allowing an average of 29.3. Every team left on their schedule has a winning record except the Patriots, who are 5-6 and certainly could have a winning record by the time the Jets see them in Week 17 with a chance to finish 0-16.
On Sunday, the Jets welcomed QB Sam Darnold back from injury, started him for the first time with his full complement of receivers ... and scored three points. Jacksonville is a bad team, but the Jets are a different level of bad. Their schedule is tougher, which means that if they end up tied with Jacksonville, the Jags might win out on the tiebreaker. But at this point, there is no reason to expect the Jets to win any of their remaining games. They are five weeks away from being on the clock.
The Cardinals are still a year away
Kyler Murray's sensational second season blew a tire on Sunday in Foxborough, as the woeful Patriots found a way to beat the Cardinals 20-17. Murray threw for just 170 yards, ran for 31 yards and scored not one single touchdown. It was the first game this season in which he didn't throw a touchdown pass and just the third in which he didn't run for a score. Whether it was a lingering shoulder issue from last week's loss at Seattle or just Bill Belichick outscheming a young quarterback the way he always seems to, Murray had a rough Sunday, and the Cardinals lost their second game in a row and third of four.
Since their Oct. 25 overtime thriller against Seattle, the only game the Cardinals have won required a Hail Mary pass and the catch of the year by DeAndre Hopkins in the final seconds.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. There's a lot to like about the Cardinals, but November revealed plenty of deficiencies. They would have a two-game lead if they were in the NFC East, but they are not. They're in the NFC West, where both the Seahawks and the Rams are ahead of them, and fourth-place San Francisco is only a game behind them. At the moment, the Cardinals occupy the seventh seed in a potential NFC playoff field, but the Bears, Vikings and 49ers are all only one game behind them, and Arizona doesn't seem to be moving in the right direction.
The Cardinals do get the Rams twice more, so they have a chance to make up ground on Los Angeles. And two of Arizona's remaining five games are against NFC East teams, which is absolutely a plus. I think what we're seeing here is a promising young offense with a brilliant young quarterback and a ton of reasons to be excited about the future. But the events of the past month have shown us that even if the Cardinals can get into the playoffs this season, they're probably not as good a bet to make noise there as they would be a year or two from now.