Earlier this week, San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said he expected Jimmy Garoppolo to be the team's starting quarterback again in 2021. This was a nice thing for Shanahan to say, but it was not much more than that.
See, this is a business, and the 49ers know that as well as anyone does. They structure players' contracts in ways that afford them total flexibility, and Garoppolo's is no exception. When they signed him in February 2018 to a five-year, $137.5 million contract, they made sure they left themselves options toward the deal's back end.
First, they paid him $42.6 million -- about 31% of the deal's total potential value -- in 2018, the first year of the contract. They did this because they had a ton of salary-cap room and could afford to put the biggest cap hit ($37 million) in Year 1. Of that $42.6 million, $28 million came in the form of a roster bonus, all of which hit the cap in 2018. Only $7 million came in the form of a signing bonus, meaning they had to carry only $1.4 million in prorated signing bonus charges against their cap in each year of the deal.
The 49ers guaranteed Garoppolo $7.5 million of his $17.2 million 2019 salary and installed "rolling guarantees" for the rest of the 2019 salary as well as the 2020 salary. Those amounts became fully guaranteed on April 1 of each of those years.
However, 2020 is just about over, and there are no guarantees on Garoppolo's contract for 2021 and 2022. Moreover, the small signing bonus means the team could cut him with very little salary-cap pain. If the 49ers release him, the dead-money charge on their 2021 cap next spring is a mere $2.8 million.
The point? The 49ers have the option to do whatever they want to do at quarterback next year. We know they at least dipped their toes into the Tom Brady water this past spring, and that was a month after Garoppolo helped lead them to the Super Bowl. This injury-riddled season doesn't appear to be headed that way for San Francisco, and especially with Garoppolo a significant part of its injury situation, it would make sense to at least consider other options.
If Garoppolo turns out to be the Niners' best option for 2021, they're all set. His 2021 salary is $24.1 million and his 2022 salary is $24.2 million. More than reasonable for a starting quarterback in today's NFL. But if they decide there's a better option out there, there is basically nothing stopping them from cutting him and moving on. Last year was great, but life moves fast. And this is a business.
Garoppolo isn't the only player who could be cut this offseason because he has no more guaranteed money left on his deal. Far from it. With the salary cap expected to drop from $198.2 million to $175 million because of COVID-19-related revenue losses, teams are going to have to make more difficult veteran cuts than usual. This week, we wanted to give you a look at just a handful of guys who could see the final years of their contracts end up on the cutting room floor.
To be clear: I am not reporting that these players will be released. I am not even predicting that these players will be released. I am offering a list of players who have no guaranteed money left on their deals, whose teams are in some cases strapped for 2021 cap space, and who could be released for financial reasons even if they might still be good players the team would prefer to keep:
Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos
Miller, who has one year left on his deal and is scheduled to earn $18 million in salary and bonuses, is out for the season with an ankle injury, and it's worth wondering whether he has played his final game as a Bronco. What's interesting and worth pointing out about Miller's contract is that 2021 is technically a team-option year, which means if the Broncos don't want to pay it, they won't have to "release" him. They can just decline the option.
What's the difference? Well, if a player's contract expires and another team signs him, then he factors into the compensatory draft pick formula. Whereas, if a team releases a player before his contract expires, he doesn't. The Broncos structured Miller's deal this way, in part, so that they could potentially recoup a comp pick if they decided to part ways with him prior to the end of the deal. Technically, if they decline the option, then he's a player on an expiring contract, not a player who got cut during a contract. Just something worth paying attention to when the moves are being made official next spring.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
It's possible Roethlisberger retires and saves the team the headache. But if he doesn't, it's hard to imagine the Steelers bringing him back on his current contract. His cap hit for 2021 is more than $41 million. He has only one year left on his contract, so the team can't restructure it any more than it already has. Pittsburgh could extend his contract and knock down some of that cap hit, or it could release him and save $19 million of the $41 million in cap charges.
This situation likely depends on how the rest of this season goes and what Roethlisberger decides. If he sticks around -- and kind of even if he doesn't -- the Steelers have some tough decisions to make elsewhere. Pass-rushers Bud Dupree (free agent) and T.J. Watt (one year left) are both up for extensions, as is wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (free agent) and a number of other key Steelers.
If they want to try to keep even some of those guys around, they will have to cut elsewhere. A potential cut could be defensive end Stephon Tuitt, who has two non-guaranteed years left and would save Pittsburgh about $5.6 million in 2021 cap space. Linebacker Vince Williams ($4 million cap savings) and tight end Vance McDonald ($5.2 million) are more obvious potential cuts. It could be a rough offseason in Pittsburgh.
Jarvis Landry, WR, Cleveland Browns
Landry is scheduled to make $13.3 million in 2021 and $15.1 million in 2022, none of it guaranteed, on a contract a previous Cleveland front office gave him. The team also has wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. under contract for three more years at more than $15 million per year, and $12.79 million of Beckham's 2021 salary becomes fully guaranteed in March. It's tough to see run-heavy Cleveland wanting to keep spending so much on wide receivers.
Landry appears to be the more likely cut, because Beckham, who is out for the season with a torn ACL, has an injury guarantee for next year, and the Browns could cut him only if he passed a physical before March, which seems unlikely. Cutting Landry would save $11.8 million in 2021 cap space.
Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
Stafford's contract has been restructured and reconfigured so many times that you need some sort of salary cap Rosetta Stone to comprehend it. But as far as I can tell, he has a $10 million roster bonus due on the fifth day of the 2021 league year (March 21). If the Lions keep him, his cap number would be nearly $34 million. If they were to cut him before March 21, they would save about $14 million on next year's cap.
This is another team that could have a new coach, general manager and direction. Stafford is scheduled to make $20 million in 2021 and $22.5 million in 2022, which are really affordable numbers for a good starting quarterback if the team decides he's the best option. But if it wants to go in a different direction, cutting ties with him in March via release or trade is entirely possible.
Geno Atkins, DT, Cincinnati Bengals
Atkins has been a superstar-caliber player for Cincinnati and is a borderline Hall of Famer. But the Bengals signed defensive tackle D.J. Reader to a big contract last offseason and aren't using Atkins very much this season. He has played in just four games, and he hasn't played more than 31% of the defensive snaps in any of those four. Cutting him might actually do him a favor, as it could let him find a team with a defensive scheme that calls for using him more.
Atkins has two years left on his deal at $12.2 million and $13.45 million, none of it guaranteed. Cutting him next spring would save the Bengals $9.6 million -- roughly the amount they'll probably need to sign their draft class. Could be a win-win.
Andrew Norwell, G, Jacksonville Jaguars
Norwell, who signed a big free-agent deal with the Jaguars in 2018, has two non-guaranteed years left at $12 million and $13 million. Jacksonville could be changing coaches and general managers, which could mean a scheme change and a desire for a different type of offensive lineman.
He'd bring $9 million in cap savings, as would fellow offensive lineman Brandon Linder, who would cost the Jaguars nothing in dead money.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns
I wanted to highlight Njoku as an example here. He will be entering his fifth-year option season, and the team picked up that option for $6.013 million. It's a totally reasonable number, and they might well decide to keep him around or even extend him. But I'm highlighting this because Njoku's draft class -- the 2017 class -- is the last one for which the fifth-year options are not fully guaranteed at the time of execution.
Up until the start of the 2021 league year, the options for 2017 first-rounders are guaranteed against only injury, which means, in theory, that the Browns could rescind the option (as long as Njoku is healthy) any time before March 17 and not have to pay him. He'd become a free agent (and, as we mentioned with Miller, possibly help them with a comp pick). Not saying it'll happen, but it's worth watching because the team signed tight end Austin Hooper to a big deal this past March.
Others who fit in this category include any 2017 first-rounder who had his option picked up and hasn't been extended, including Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams, Eagles defensive end Derek Barnett, Buccaneers tight end O.J. Howard, Giants tight end Evan Engram, Giants safety Jabrill Peppers and Washington defensive lineman Jonathan Allen. It's rare that the team backs out of a fifth-year option after picking it up, but it's also rare for the salary cap to drop by $23.2 million. And this is the final year teams can do this. Starting with the 2018 draft class, fifth-year options for first-round picks are fully guaranteed at the time of execution.
A few more candidates to be released
Washington QB Alex Smith, this season's best comeback story, is finally through the guaranteed portion of his contract and could end up parting ways with the team as it looks toward its future at the position (whatever that is).
Vikings OT Riley Reiff would save the team $11.75 million against next year's cap and cost only $2.2 million in dead money.
Panthers DT Kawann Short is a holdover from a previous front office who'd save the team $9.822 million against next year's cap.
Packers OLB Preston Smith could bring $8 million in cap savings as Green Bay gears up for extensions to come.
Dolphins CB Xavien Howard has the second-largest cap hit on the team for 2021 and plays the same position as Byron Jones, who has the largest and just signed in March. A Howard cut would save $9.3 million in cap space. As good as he is, the Dolphins surely have the draft capital to replace him.
Bears DT Akiem Hicks, CB Kyle Fuller and OT Charles Leno would save a combined $27.7 million in cap space for a team that's up against it and needs to go get a quarterback. TE Jimmy Graham saves another $7 million and should be an obvious cut.
Cowboys LB Jaylon Smith technically has five years left on his deal, but he has no guaranteed money after this year. His 2021 salary becomes guaranteed if he's on the roster on the fifth day of the 2021 league year, but they'd owe him no money if they cut him before that. They'd absorb a $9.4 million dead-money charge and save only $400,000 on next year's cap, but they'd save some cash as they try again to pay their quarterback.
Seahawks DE Carlos Dunlap was a half-year rental for Seattle at the trade deadline. No way they're paying him $14.1 million next year. They save all of that by cutting him and have no dead-money charge.