Jalen Hurts was clearly not an overreaction.
If anything, you could say Eagles coach Doug Pederson underreacted to Carson Wentz's season-long struggles by waiting until Week 14 to replace him as the starter with the rookie second-round pick Hurts. But start him he finally did Sunday, and it paid off with one of the most improbable victories of the 2020 NFL season.
The Saints rolled into Philadelphia on a nine-game winning streak, having won three in a row with Taysom Hill subbing for an injured Drew Brees at starting quarterback, sliding the NFC South into their back pockets for a fourth year in a row and setting their sights on the NFC's top playoff seed.
The Eagles came in on a four-game losing streak, with major questions about their high-priced franchise quarterback and the future of their Super Bowl-winning head coach.
So of course, the Eagles built a 17-0 lead and hung on to win 24-21. Both Hurts and running back Miles Sanders rushed for more than 100 yards against a team that hadn't allowed even a single 100-yard rusher in its past 55 games. That, to coin a phrase, is why they play the games.
What better place to begin the Week 14 overreactions column than with the upset none of us saw coming?
Jalen Hurts has to be the Eagles' starter for the rest of the season
I was getting ready to erase everything I'd already written when Hurts fumbled away the ball in the final minutes, rekindling New Orleans' hope and letting the game come down to an onside kick. But until that moment, Hurts was ... really pretty good. In command. Comfortable. Made smart decisions about when to run and when to throw. He was 17-for-30 for 167 yards, so no great statistical shakes there. But he had 106 rushing yards on 18 carries and clearly offered something (A) for which the Saints' excellent defense was not prepared and (B) that Wentz hasn't been offering.
The Eagles are 4-8-1, but in this year's NFC East that means they're still just a game and a half behind first-place Washington with three to play.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Are you kidding? This is a slam dunk. The Eagles looked better Sunday than they have in months. There shouldn't even be a question about who starts next week in Arizona, and unless Hurts gets injured in that game, why wouldn't they run him out there in their final two games?
Philly's chances are toothpick-slim no matter who plays quarterback -- 6.7%, according to the ESPN Football Power Index. But 6.7% is not 0%, and until their chances drop to 0%, they need to play the guy who gives them the best chance to win. Injuries have shredded the Eagles' once-mighty offensive line, which means the more mobile Hurts is the better option. He had 50 yards and four first downs on four scrambles Sunday. Wentz has one game in his career with four first downs on scrambles. Hurts had 56 yards on designed runs -- more than any other Eagles quarterback in the past 20 years other than Michael Vick. They need the dynamic element Hurts' legs offer.
And honestly, even after the Eagles are eliminated, they could use the remaining 2020 time to figure out what kind of option Hurts is for the future. At this time, their plan is to keep Wentz for next year and beyond. (Frankly, his contract almost mandates that.) But it's important to know what you have and what your options are, so getting a four-game look at Hurts as the starter makes sense from a data-collection standpoint, too.
Right now, the better question is whether Hurts should be the starter in 2021. The remainder of 2020 is a settled issue.
Travis Kelce should be Offensive Player of the Year
The Chiefs have us dazzled us into complacency when it comes to their offensive brilliance. We just assume that, every week, Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Kelce will put up monster numbers that carry fantasy teams to glory and burnish Andy Reid's Hall of Fame credentials. But it's worth taking a step back and looking at what Kelce is doing, because it's outrageous.
He had eight catches for 136 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's win over the Dolphins. It was his sixth 100-yard receiving game of the season, which ties a record for tight ends. Kelce had six in 2016, Jimmy Graham had six in 2013 and Tony Gonzalez had six in 2000 and 2004. Kelce has three games left to play this season.
It was Kelce's sixth game in a row with at least eight catches. During that stretch, he has caught 50 of his 64 targets, scored four touchdowns and failed to post 100 yards only once -- when he had 82 on eight catches in a Week 12 victory over Tampa Bay.
Entering Sunday, he was fifth in the league with 82 catches, eight behind league co-leaders Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs. He was second in receiving yards, just five behind DK Metcalf. He was sixth in receiving touchdowns with eight. No tight end has ever led the league in receiving yards. George Kittle set the single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end with 1,377 in 2018. Kelce is 127 yards behind that mark with three games to go.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. I've never understood why this is a separate award from MVP, because only two defensive players have ever won the MVP award. If you're an offensive player who's the most valuable in the league, how can you not be Offensive Player of the Year? But whatever, this award seems almost to be a consolation prize for players who don't win the award because they aren't quarterbacks.
And if that's what we're talking about in 2020, then Kelce absolutely belongs in the discussion along with guys such as Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, Davante Adams, Metcalf, Hill, Diggs, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Jefferson and probably a handful of other guys whose fans will get mad at me for failing to list here. There are several standout performances on the offensive side of the ball in 2020, but it's hard to see how Kelce's takes a back seat to any of them.
The Buccaneers will be the scariest team to play in the NFC playoffs
Tampa Bay took about a quarter and a half to wake up from its bye, but wake up Tom Brady & Co. did, and the Bucs ended up beating the Minnesota Vikings 26-14. The win improved their record to 8-5, which puts them solidly in the No. 6 seed in the NFC field if the season were to end right now. It also kept the Vikings off their tails, as those two teams would have had the same records had Minnesota won.
Brady was a solid 15-for-23 for 196 yards and two touchdowns, spreading it around to eight different receivers while Ronald Jones ran for 80 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. It was a weird game in which Tampa Bay had just 20:57 time of possession and ran just 49 plays to the Vikings' 76, but the Bucs controlled it and continue to control their own destiny in the playoff race.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Look, the Bucs are good, but they are far from perfect. This could have been a totally different game if Vikings kicker Dan Bailey hadn't missed four kicks. They were outgained 335 yards to 303 and ran for only 106. Add in the fact that they're 1-3 against the rest of the teams currently in the NFC playoff field (they beat the Packers, lost to the Rams and lost twice to the Saints), and it's hard to label them "scary."
Brady? Sure, he can be scary. But this 2020 edition of the Bucs has looked all season as if it's still figuring out how to put itself together, and it has been a little too inconsistent to make you believe it can win three straight in January against playoff competition -- especially if one of those games is in frigid Wisconsin.
Chase Young belongs in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation
At the top of the NFC East sits the Washington Football Team, which has beaten the Steelers and the 49ers the past two weeks to extend its winning streak to four games and improve its record to 6-7. Washington is the only NFC East team that still has a chance to finish the season with a winning record, and it beat the defending NFC champs on Sunday without an offensive touchdown.
Washington's first of two defensive touchdowns was the work of Young, the No. 2 overall pick from April's draft, who scooped up a San Francisco fumble in the final minute of the first half and ran it back 47 yards for a touchdown. In that same first half, he also had a sack, forced a fumble, batted down a shovel pass and generally implanted himself in the nightmares of Kyle Shanahan, Nick Mullens & Co. for the foreseeable future.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. For now. But this young man is a problem. And with all due respect to Alex Smith and his remarkable comeback, Young is the central figure in the run that has shockingly put Washington in position to win its division. (The FPI currently gives Washington a 68.6% chance.)
Sunday's was a game in which Washington did not have star rookie running back Antonio Gibson and in which Smith was just 8-for-19 for 57 yards before leaving with a leg injury. Young made sure his team won anyway. He is the heart, soul and engine of a Washington front seven that's as good as any in the league, and he's only getting better.
He's almost certain to be the Defensive Rookie of the Year at this rate, but with guys such as T.J. Watt, Aaron Donald and Xavien Howard putting up monster numbers, he's not likely to factor into the voting for Defensive Player of the Year. Not this year, at least. But soon, and possibly for years to come.
Mitchell Trubisky will be a starting quarterback in 2021
Benched in Week 4 with his team 3-0, Trubisky reclaimed the Bears' starting quarterback job in Week 10 and ... has done all right with it. Over his past two games, he has completed 74.6% of his passes for an average of 7.97 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and no interceptions. The Bears actually won Sunday against the Texans, which means they're 4-2 this season in games Trubisky starts (even though Nick Foles totally bailed him out in relief in Week 3).
He was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft, is still just 26 years old, is mobile enough to play in today's game, and has the Vikings, Jaguars and Packers left on his 2020 schedule with a chance for a strong finish. (Especially if Green Bay is resting guys in Week 17.)
I don't see any way he's back in Chicago, because the fans might riot if he is. But some team might see the age, the talent and the strong December and take a shot on adding him to its starting QB competition, no?
The verdict: OVERREACTION. A team will sign Trubisky, sure, but the perception of him around the league will be as a backup/project type of player. Little bit like Jameis Winston was for the Saints this season. Think about that: Winston is a far more accomplished player than Trubisky is, and not only could he not get a starting job, he turned out to be the third-string QB in New Orleans this year.
The fact is, there aren't as many teams as there used to be that are desperate at quarterback right now. Scanning the standings, I generously count 10, maybe 11 teams with unsettled 2021 QB situations. And some of those teams are going to have better options in the form of high draft picks or trade/free-agent acquisitions. Time was, if you were a healthy quarterback who could throw the ball forward, NFL wallets would fall open for you. This is not such a time, and as good as Trubisky looked against a very permissive Texans defense, he's likely going to have to build his career back up from the bottom.