Who should the Lions, Texans and Falcons hire as head coach? We debated and made picks for NFL openings

As the 2020 NFL season heads into the final two weeks, there are three head-coaching jobs officially open -- the Houston Texans, Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons -- with more sure to come in the weeks ahead.

There are many intriguing candidates this year, from candidates rising up the offensive and defensive coordinator paths to those from the NCAA ranks to former NFL head coaches looking for their next shot.

Who will get each job? Let's break down each opening and come to consensus on whom we'd hire for each club. We also added our picks for the jobs with the 1-13 New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars, who are likely to be looking for a new coach soon.

Jump to a team:
Lions | Texans
Falcons | Jets | Jaguars

Detroit Lions

The situation: The Lions fired coach Matt Patricia and general manager Bob Quinn after a 4-7 start. Patricia's record was 13-29-1 since taking over as the Lions coach in 2018. Quinn had been the team's GM since 2016, and the Lions were 31-43-1 during his tenure.

Graziano: I can't figure out whether the Lions' job is a good one or a bad one for potential candidates. On one hand, the Ford family has a history of being stable, patient owners. On the other, this is the first time Sheila Ford Hamp has been in charge, so can we be sure she'll run the team the way her parents have? On one hand, you have a legit franchise QB in Matthew Stafford. On the other hand, you're probably going to have to preside over a rebuild that includes a change at QB at some point during your tenure -- maybe even in the first year. Lots of uncertainty here.

Fowler: Exactly, Dan. Top candidates probably won't look at this job as the most desirable one in the lot. Lack of success looms large too, with 14 wins since 2018 and no playoff wins since 1991. But the rumblings are strong that Ford Hamp will shake things up in a big way, from structure to culture, which is a positive. There's genuine curiosity with the Lions as to whether Stafford is up for another reset with a new coach in Detroit. Either way, the new guy should have a mix of creativity and discipline.

What do you think of the early Robert Saleh buzz?

Graziano: Hey, when the state legislature is behind you, that's a nice leg up on the competition, no? Maybe not. Anyway, Saleh is an interesting guy. First glance, you'd ask why would the Lions go with another defensive coordinator when the last one didn't work out? But I'm a big proponent of the idea that you're not hiring a coordinator here; you're hiring a leader, whose main job is not to design schemes or call plays but to set the agenda, establish the culture and communicate and execute the vision of the organization as a whole.

That sounds like a big, broad job description, but I think it fits. So if Saleh, whose background is interesting and whose coaching influences are pretty successful, strikes Detroit ownership as that sort of guy, I say go for it. Now, all of that said, you know one of the questions with Saleh would be who he's bringing to run his offense. There are some interesting candidates on the current 49ers staff.

Fowler: Some people in NFL coaching circles believe Saleh will attempt to bring 49ers passing game coordinator Mike LaFleur with him. LaFleur would be a selling point for Saleh in interviews -- that's if Kyle Shanahan would let him go. He just signed an extension 11 months ago.

I do think Saleh would set a culture that resonates with Detroit's locker room. What we learned from the Matt Patricia era is the Bill Belichick blueprint doesn't work everywhere -- or, better yet, there's only one Bill Belichick. He's a good coach who had some problems connecting with several ex-players. Saleh could learn from that and perhaps set more of an inclusive approach. The Lions might interview 10 or more candidates, so Saleh will have competition, but he appears ready for it.

Graziano: I think you've talked me into it. Lions go defense for the second time in a row, hoping this time the guy is more than just a defense guy.

The coach we'd hire: Robert Saleh, defensive coordinator, San Francisco 49ers

Houston Texans

The situation: After starting 0-4, the Texans fired coach and general manager Bill O'Brien. He went 52-48 and won four division titles in seven seasons in Houston. Executive vice president of football operations Jack Easterby is handling GM duties on an interim basis, and Texans chairman/CEO Cal McNair said last month that Easterby "will have a significant role in helping shape our future." The team interviewed former Lions and Colts coach Jim Caldwell on Monday.

Fowler: This job is fascinating, Dan, because you have a top-tier quarterback in Deshaun Watson to drive your franchise. But the overall roster is middle-of-the-road at best. Bill O'Brien traded away the first- and second-round picks in April's draft. The Texans are set to be $12.9 million over the salary cap, and the presence of VP Jack Easterby clouds the hierarchy. Can a new coach overcome all that?

Graziano: Someone asked me on the radio the other day what's the best job of those that are open or will be, and my knee-jerk answer was this one because of Watson. There isn't another job that comes with a QB this good.

But your point about the draft picks is well taken, and they have a lot of work to do to build something up around Watson. While people will connect QB-centric candidates with this job, I almost wonder whether you don't need one, since Watson is such a known quantity. CEO-type coach here instead of QB-whisperer type. Just a theory.

Fowler: I could see that. You can always get a killer offensive coordinator to structure the offense. Since Watson still has some deficiencies, such as pocket presence, I like a partnership with an offensive head coach who can take him to a new level. The ability is there to become an undisputed top-three quarterback. I have a sneaky suspicion that Eric Bieniemy will at least strongly consider this job, but we'll see. Which CEO types do you like here?

Graziano: I share your suspicion on Bieniemy for this job, and my experience talking to him leads me to believe he can be that CEO type rather than just a deservedly promoted offensive coordinator. Marvin Lewis wants back in, and he won a lot more games in Cincinnati than most people have. Might be worth a shot to see him at the helm of a different organization. Somebody else with previous NFL head-coaching experience could work, like Leslie Frazier or Raheem Morris or even Jim Harbaugh.

But I keep coming back to Bienemy as the likely choice here, maybe because I keep hearing it everywhere. It's the kind of rumor you've heard so much that you start to wonder.

Fowler: Such a natural tie-in too, with Watson's connection with Patrick Mahomes, since they're good friends and draft-mates. As Chiefs OC, Bieniemy has helped Mahomes develop into the game's premier passer. We're not saying Watson is Mahomes, but perhaps Bieniemy can guide Watson in a similar way.

The coach we'd hire: Eric Bieniemy, offensive coordinator, Kansas City Chiefs

Atlanta Falcons

The situation: Dan Quinn hit some high points with the Falcons, including infamously holding a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI -- before losing to the Patriots. But after an 0-5 start in 2020 (including more devastating blown leads), Quinn was fired, along with GM Thomas Dimitroff. Raheem Morris took over as the interim coach, and has gone 4-5 since.

Graziano: So, in Atlanta, I think there's a factor that the other open jobs don't have, because the first question you ask is whether the interim coach can or should just keep the job. Morris has spent six years on the Falcons' coaching staff, coached on both sides of the ball and has head-coaching experience from years ago in Tampa Bay. They know him, they like him, and the team has played well since he's had the job.

I always say that if I had an open head-coaching job, I'd interview everyone I could (since you hope you don't get another chance for 10-plus years), but in a case like this, do you think maybe the obvious answer is right in front of Arthur Blank?

Fowler: Morris is definitely qualified, no doubt. He'll get a serious look. But I think even Morris went into this thinking he needed to post a big win total, and his 4-5 record might not be enough. Whomever the Falcons select needs to maximize a middling roster and an aging quarterback (Matt Ryan) whose $40 million cap hit will be hard to shed.

Marvin Lewis could make some sense here. The offense needs a multidimensional facelift, so the expertise of Titans OC Arthur Smith, Panthers OC Joe Brady or Rams OC Kevin O'Connell could add unpredictability.

Graziano: That makes sense. Again, I'm not one for just picking a coordinator on the side of the ball you like best, but if I owned the Falcons I'd be thinking about someone who can maximize Calvin Ridley's future and whatever Matt Ryan and Julio Jones have left. The trick is to find the offensive mastermind who has the leadership qualities. That's why everybody who was trying to find the "next Sean McVay" a couple of years back was misguided. They were focused on the first part and missed the second.

What do you think about one of the coordinators we were looking at this time last year, Brian Daboll or Greg Roman? Either one of those guys strike you as more than just a scheme guy?

Fowler: Both are capable, but Daboll's versatility puts him over the top and will likely land him one of the jobs. He's modernized the Bills' attack and helped Josh Allen become a legitimate pocket passer. He's coached nearly every position on offense over the years, along with coordinator stints at the collegiate and NFL levels.

But I keep going back to Lewis here, because, to your point earlier, it's about leadership over playcalling cachet, and Lewis' run at Cincinnati was low-key amazing, looking back: seven playoff appearances and six double-digit-win seasons for a notoriously frugal franchise. That looks just fine against the backdrop of Cincinnati's recent struggles. Owner Arthur Blank is 78 and doesn't want to waste time here. Lewis is Arizona State's co-defensive coordinator, but I'm sure Herm Edwards will gladly let him go.

Graziano: Lots of ways the Falcons can go, but let's give them the candidate with the most experience establishing and maintaining a consistent culture. Lewis with a team that does run as "quirky" as the Bengals do. I think he's a strong choice.

The coach we'd hire: Marvin Lewis, co-defensive coordinator, Arizona State Sun Devils

New York Jets

The situation: After nearly two full seasons under head coach Adam Gase, the Jets have an 8-22 record. Furthermore, the development of Sam Darnold as the franchise quarterback has hit a wall, in the USC product's third NFL season after being selected third overall in the 2018 draft.

Fowler: Contrary to traditional Jets wisdom, Dan, this job will be coveted. The team might have fumbled its shot at Trevor Lawrence with a win over the Rams, but they have a straight shot at a top-two pick regardless, and Justin Fields is the No. 2 quarterback prospect by a wide margin. Two first-round picks await the Jets in the upcoming draft, along with more than $80 million in cap space for free agency. I'm expecting GM Joe Douglas to have major influence over this hire.

Who might fit his vision?

Graziano: My interest was piqued a couple of weeks ago when our Jets reporter, Rich Cimini, suggested Doug Pederson as a candidate here if the Eagles move on from him. Pederson and Douglas worked together in Philly, and Rich is really plugged in there, so this isn't nothing. But if Pederson is worn out by the intensity in Philly, I'm not sure how New York makes a ton of sense.

I see potential for a big splash here -- like a Jim Harbaugh if he wants it, or I was thinking maybe a run at Dabo Swinney if they end up getting back into the top pick before it's all over. What do you think? Possible?

Fowler: Whew, Dabo would be wild -- and a home run -- but he's got such a good thing going at Clemson that he can stay there forever and recruit five-star quarterbacks. We just haven't heard much Jim Harbaugh buzz in this process. Maybe the sheen has worn off. I definitely agree Pederson would be in the mix. You're right, he might be washed from the Philly experience and go call plays for one of his head-coaching friends for a year.

Whoever takes the job needs a rookie-friendly offensive game plan, with an eye on 2022-23 for real competition. We laid out Daboll's positives earlier. Could he handle the New York grind?

Graziano: I don't know that about Daboll, but if I'm the Jets and I'm starting over with a new QB, I'd want to know as much as possible about the guy who built Josh Allen into what he is now. They've seen him up close in the division, and know how he operates from a distance, why not bring him in and find out what he'd be like running his own show?

Fowler: Good question. And he's gotten a taste of New York as the Jets' quarterbacks coach in 2007-08, working with a guy named Brett Favre. Daboll can provide enthusiasm that the Jets job sorely needs.

The coach we'd hire: Brian Daboll, offensive coordinator, Buffalo Bills

Jacksonville Jaguars

The situation: Doug Marrone achieved early success in his run as Jaguars head coach, winning the AFC South and leading the team to the AFC Championship Game in 2017. But it's been rough since, and a 1-13 record heading into Week 16 lends many to believe he'll be replaced this offseason.

Graziano: The Jags fired the GM but not the coach with a couple of weeks left in the regular season, which is a strong indication that they intend to hire the GM first and let him pick the coach. I'm not sure this is always the way to go, and I'm looking at situations such as Buffalo and San Francisco as places where the coach was in place first (yes, I know not technically in San Francisco, but we all know what happened there) and brought in a GM he knew he could work with.

In general, I'm a fan of more teams trying it that way. And the Jags sure look like a team that could use a change in the way they do things.

Fowler: Yeah, I don't mind the approach either. GM and head coach need to be in it together, and this way might lessen the chances at backbiting when things get tough. This will be a good job. Total clean slate. Can probably get a six- or seven-year contract with big money for the rebuild. Premier draft positioning for a new quarterback with 11 total picks, including two in the first round. An aggressive owner.

Daboll would fit seamlessly here to blend with a young QB, unless the Chargers job opens. We've discussed Smith's credentials before. Hard to argue with what he's done. Miami castoff Ryan Tannehill became one of the NFL's most efficient passers, and the Titans can run on anybody.

Graziano: Right, Chargers for Daboll, who went to the same high school as Chargers general manager Tom Telesco. Lots of people putting that pair together in their speculation. I do think Daboll gets one of those jobs, and I'd be tempted to bring him in just because of his work with Josh Allen. Turned that guy from a total wild card into a legit MVP candidate. If I'm starting over with a young, talented, top-of-the-draft QB, I'm at least interested in hearing what Daboll has to say.

I also like Byron Leftwich here if he's going to get a job in this cycle. Former Jaguars legend! (Is "legend" too strong?) And as you mention, Smith deserves credit for building the offense he built around Tannehill in Tennessee. Maybe he could construct something about which Jags fans would get excited.

Fowler: Leftwich back in teal would be a nice storyline for a franchise that needs one. And he's managing a lot of personalities on that Bucs offense, which helps. Smith has a few unique things going for him. He's shown he can manufacture points and yards without dominant quarterback play. Coaches who do that are coveted (see: Shanahan, Kyle). And if you're looking for CEO qualities, look no further than Smith's pedigree. His father is FedEx founder Fred Smith.

Smith is charting his own path, but I bring that up only because Smith must have learned invaluable management qualities along the way.

The coach we'd hire: Arthur Smith, offensive coordinator, Tennessee Titans