NFL coach firings, hirings and openings 2020: Latest rumors and what we're hearing on the Eagles, Bears, Chargers, Jets jobs

In just three-and-a-half weeks, 18 of the NFL's 32 teams will have played their final games, and a half-dozen or more of them will be looking for new head coaches.

The last time we presented a look at the projected 2021 offseason coaching landscape was Oct. 20, and both of us kept hearing the same thing at the end of our conversations with people around the league: "Check back after Thanksgiving." That makes sense. A lot can change in that amount of time. On Oct. 20, for example, the Bears were 5-1 and in first place. They have not won a game since then. The league-wide perception of their situation has, as you might imagine, changed.

Having checked back after Thanksgiving as instructed, we return to you with an updated look at the 2021 offseason coaching carousel, beginning with a team we'd never have imagined we'd be discussing in this context this soon:

Jump to a section:
Can Matt Nagy survive in Chicago?
Is Zac Taylor safe in Cincinnati?
Detroit has a plan, but what's next?
The leading candidates for coaching jobs
Potential general manager names to watch

Could the Eagles really fire Doug Pederson?

Things weren't great in Philly on Oct. 20. The Eagles were 1-4-1. But they were a half-game behind the 2-4 first-place Cowboys, who'd just lost their quarterback to a season-ending injury, and you had reason to believe the Eagles were the one team in the NFC East that would turn things around. They have not.

Carson Wentz -- the man handed a $128 million contract just 19 months ago to be the face of the franchise -- is broken. The Eagles' offense is broken, too, ranking 29th in yards per play (4.9) and 31st in yards per pass attempt (6.1). Wentz leads the NFL in interceptions (16) and sacks taken (50), leaving the 3-8-1 Eagles no choice but to bench him for Jalen Hurts in a season suddenly bringing next year's draft positioning into focus.

All this does not bode well for Pederson, who presides over this disaster along with general manager Howie Roseman.

Several people around the league legitimately can't believe that Pederson would be on the hot seat after a Super Bowl win and three straight playoff appearances. His pedigree should buy him one bad season, they say. One source believed that the relationship can still be salvaged and that Pederson and Roseman could coexist with perhaps more tweaks to the coaching staff to balance things out.

But somebody probably has to take the fall for the regression of the franchise quarterback, and signs, at least for now, say that Pederson could end up being that guy.

Here are a few factors floated to us that complicate matters for Pederson:

• Wentz's contract is nearly impossible to shake, with $59.2 million in dead cap if cut and $33.8 million in dead cap if traded. If the Eagles have deemed those amounts untenable in a COVID-influenced cap year, then bringing Wentz back could necessitate a reset with the staff.

• Roseman has been with the team a lot longer and has survived previous tricky situations involving team struggles and GM-coach power dynamics. Team owner Jeffrey Lurie has a lot of history with Roseman, and there's thought that if only one of them makes it out of this, Roseman is the more likely survivor.

• If the Eagles decided to move on, Pederson would instantly become one of the more attractive head-coaching candidates on the market. (He won the Super Bowl three years ago!) Perhaps that helps facilitate a mutual parting of ways.

• The proverbial buck stops with Pederson, who fired offensive coordinator Mike Groh after last season and has no one else to blame for the team's struggles. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz isn't the problem. Passing game coordinator Press Taylor doesn't call plays; Pederson does.

Maybe the Eagles throw all that out, rally as an organization, finish strong and salvage the marriage. But if this team finishes, say, 4-11-1, all bets are off, especially when you consider that the team held on to the Super Bowl nucleus one year too long.

At least there's precedent for surviving a bad year in Philly. The Eagles fired Chip Kelly and Andy Reid after back-to-back seasons without a playoff berth. Pederson has made the playoffs every year but his first, which was 2016.

Can Matt Nagy survive in Chicago?

Nagy is another former Andy Reid assistant we didn't expect to be having this conversation about this year. His Bears have lost six games in a row to tumble out of contention.

Nagy has been unable to turn around former No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky, and the offense performed even worse after Nagy turned to backup Nick Foles, whom Nagy wanted this offseason as a veteran backup because of his familiarity with the system. When you're a quarterback coach who can't get the quarterback position figured out -- and you go from 5-1 to 5-7 -- you're not in the best of spots.

People around the league are watching for a possible opening in Chicago at head coach and maybe even at GM, where Ryan Pace, the guy who traded up to draft Trubisky while Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson were on the board in 2017, could be on shaky ground as well. The Bears could be starting over at coach, GM and quarterback in 2021, which means the entire roster could be subject to a reset.

Anthony Lynn's cold December in L.A.

The last time we rolled out coaching notes, we said that coach Anthony Lynn might survive because he hasn't lost the locker room and is well-liked in the organization. Those last two parts are still true, and a source said Lynn has been operating for a while now under the assumption that he would get the entire season to figure things out.

But Lynn's penchant for curious losses could prove insurmountable. "What the heck are the Chargers doing?" has become a weekly question. The decision to run the ball at the goal line with seconds left, down 10 against Buffalo in Week 12, was baffling. Following that with a lifeless 45-0 loss to the Patriots sets the stage for sweeping changes.

Lynn is 2-4 since our initial assessment, and two of those losses are -- you guessed it -- by seven points or fewer, putting Lynn at 4-15 inside that margin since 2019.

There was league-wide skepticism about Lynn's status well before all this, and that's only strengthened now. The Chargers like Lynn a great deal and aren't exactly eager to move on. But at some point, the losses pile up to the point that his surviving past December would be an upset. The team might have reached that point with Lynn.

How many head coach jobs could come open?

There are already openings in Atlanta, Houston and Detroit, and we are expecting the Jets to move on from Adam Gase, the Chargers to move on from Lynn and the Jaguars to move on from Doug Marrone.

As discussed above, the situations in Philadelphia and Chicago have become worth watching, and there is a chance that Denver could join the list if the final month of the season doesn't show some spark. That means at least six and probably as many as nine head-coaching openings. There were five last year, which was a relatively low number compared to most years, so a higher number this year would not be a surprise.

One coach who might survive all the losing

Despite Zac Taylor's four victories in 28 tries, there isn't much buzz that his seat is all that hot, based on two factors: Cincinnati hates change, and Taylor mostly did well with rookie No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow. Those might be the only two things in his favor, but those are big things, and they've been on his side throughout. The Bengals knew when they hired Taylor that he was a young coach who would need some time to develop in the role.

This quote from a source close to Burrow is a good sign: "He loves it there and thinks he can win a Super Bowl with them."

Questions persist about whether Taylor did enough with a maligned offensive line to protect Burrow. But the Bengals are in the process of phasing out older veterans, which takes time, and five of their losses this season were by five points or fewer. They were in almost every game they played prior to the Burrow injury. Because of all that, there's a loose belief that Taylor could get another year. But a spirited finish would certainly help erase the doubt.

Detroit's new plan

Owner and chairman Sheila Ford Hamp isn't just hiring a general manager and coach to replace Bob Quinn and Matt Patricia. She's evaluating the entire operation, hoping to provide synergy to a team saddled with the dreaded "culture problem" label that the Browns, Jets, Washington and others have known all too well. That includes evaluating structure and allocation of responsibilities.

This a big undertaking, and multiple league sources expect Hamp, who took over as owner and chairman in June, to lean heavily on the NFL advisory committee and owners she trusts, as opposed to a traditional search firm. Industry sources say that plan is good, but the inexperience will probably show during the process.

Robert Saleh, the 49ers' defensive coordinator, will undoubtedly get a hard look here -- especially if the Michigan state legislature has anything to say about it -- but the Lions are not partial to one type. They aren't that far down the road yet, but they want a coach who will resonate with the locker room and communicate effectively. There's some early buzz that Saleh could be looking to pair with 49ers vice president of player personnel Adam Peters on the personnel side, wherever he goes.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been through a lot, and uncertainty about his future is definitely a hot topic inside Detroit HQ. There's a feeling that he might not have the stomach for another go-around with a new coach.

This is not considered one of the more desirable jobs by those in football circles, in part due to the lack of recent success (no playoff wins since 1991). But a year ago, Cleveland and Washington were carrying around the "losing culture" label, and now both are in playoff contention under new coaches. This offers a glimmer of hope that turnarounds are possible for woebegone franchises if they get the right people in positions of leadership. And if Stafford does stick around -- his $10 million roster bonus is due on the fifth day of the new league year, so the Lions must figure it out by then -- the new coach will inherit a top-12 quarterback.

Want to coach a superstar QB?

The presence of Deshaun Watson is going to make the Texans' opening an appealing one for potential coaches, even though the draft cupboard is bare and the organizational power dynamic isn't fully fleshed out. Team owner Cal McNair has said that the Texans will hire a GM and that it won't be top executive Jack Easterby, but there's little doubt now that Easterby wields a ton of power there and likely will have a lot of say in the hiring of said GM and new head coach.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported last month that McNair was soliciting Watson's opinions about possible coaches, which leads you to believe that Watson's comfort and happiness will be factors in the decision. The team did just give him a massive contract extension and trade his best receiver, only to see him respond with maybe the best season of his career so far. You'd think that every decision they make would be with Watson in mind.

There's a fair bit of outside speculation that Houston is the eventual landing spot for Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy -- assuming, as most people seem to be, that this is the year Bieniemy gets his head-coaching shot.

Audition time in Atlanta

Interim Falcons coach Raheem Morris could be a candidate to keep the job permanently. He has been on the staff for six years, has been an assistant coach on both sides of the ball, enjoys a strong relationship with team owner Arthur Blank and has head-coaching experience from 2009 to '11, when he was the Buccaneers' head coach in his early 30s.

The Falcons started off hot under Morris following Dan Quinn's firing in October, but they've lost twice to the Saints in the past three weeks, and Morris' record is now just 4-3 with a tough four games remaining: at the Chargers, home to the Bucs, at the Chiefs, at the Bucs. A strong finish could make Morris a candidate not only in Atlanta but also for other openings around the league. In fact, Atlanta largely expects that to happen.

The sentiment in some league circles is that Atlanta will look to hire a minority candidate for GM and/or head coach.

Atlanta is widely considered a middle-tier job: The team currently faces a deficit of $25 million on the 2021 salary cap, and the defense isn't overly talented. But inheriting a duo of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones isn't the worst thing for a new coach, even if they are declining. Plus, the offense is loaded with young weapons such as Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage and Hayden Hurst.

Who are the other candidates for coaching openings?

Bieniemy is a leading candidate, along with fellow offensive coordinators Brian Daboll in Buffalo, Arthur Smith in Tennessee, Greg Roman in Baltimore and Byron Leftwich in Tampa Bay. Seattle's Brian Schottenheimer was getting some mentions earlier this season when Russell Wilson was on a record-setting pace.

Defensive coordinators seem to have a tougher time getting traction, but San Francisco's Robert Saleh, Indianapolis' Matt Eberflus, Kansas City's Steve Spagnuolo and New Orleans' Dennis Allen are among the names to watch. Chiefs special-teams coordinator Dave Toub tends to have his name pop up from time to time, and Saints offensive assistant Dan Campbell has hit the interview circuit a bit in recent years as well. The performance of Rams DC Brandon Staley has definitely caught the attention of NFL teams. No word yet on what that means for job interviews but he's on the radar.

Besides Morris, there's a handful of former head-coach types who have some level of interest in returning to the sideline. Former Bengals coach Marvin Lewis drew interest from Dallas and Washington last year and should get interviews again this time around after spending a season with Herm Edwards at Arizona State. In a pool without many clear-cut favorites, it wouldn't surprise to see him land a job based on how he kept Cincinnati competitive -- seven playoff appearances in 16 seasons -- all those years.

Former Colts and Lions coach Jim Caldwell is still well-respected. Todd Bowles still gets talked about as a guy who could get another shot down the road. Leslie Frazier doesn't seem to get enough credit for the job he has done as Buffalo's defensive coordinator. Josh McDaniels always looms as a possibility, even if you don't hear his name as much as you used to. There are Bill Cowher rumors in New York, as there have been for more than a decade.

You might not have known Joe Judge's name this time last year, but he ended up getting the Giants' head coach job. Who are the names that are a little bit off the radar at this point? Guys who could start hitting the interview grind this year and maybe get one of the big jobs sooner than expected? Patrick Graham is turning heads for his work as Giants defensive coordinator under Judge. Defensive coordinators Joe Woods (Browns) and Josh Boyer (Dolphins) are generating some buzz. Houston coordinators Tim Kelly (offense) and Anthony Weaver (defense) are well-regarded former Bill O'Brien assistants. Coaches such as Philadelphia's Duce Staley, New Orleans' Aaron Glenn and Kansas City's Mike Kafka are looked at as longer-term prospects, but their names could start floating around as interviews begin. Pep Hamilton is the quarterbacks coach for the Chargers, who, as you might have heard, have a pretty good-looking rookie quarterback this season.

This is by no means a complete list. Nor do we think everyone on this list is ready to be a head coach right now. But this is a snapshot of the kinds of names you can expect to start hearing as this coaching cycle kicks off in a couple of weeks.

Don't forget the front offices

There are currently more GM openings (four) than head coach openings. Jacksonville fired GM Dave Caldwell two weeks ago but didn't fire head coach Doug Marrone. Why fire the GM and not the coach with five weeks to go? The Jaguars, sources say, wanted to get a jump on the GM interview process because they believe that other teams, such as Detroit and Atlanta, have already started theirs. Candidates who don't currently work for teams -- such as former Texans GM Rick Smith, who is looking to get back in -- can be interviewed and even hired before the season ends. In December 2017, for example, the Giants hired former Panthers GM Dave Gettleman a few weeks after firing Jerry Reese.

Speaking of Reese, he's a guy people believe would welcome another chance. His draft record in New York was poor, but he has two Super Bowl rings on his résumé. And though things ended badly for John Dorsey in Kansas City and Cleveland, the current AFC standings offer some testament to his roster-building abilities. We've also heard former Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie's name a few times. He could get a look or two.

Those are just some names of currently available candidates. There are plenty of candidates working in winning front offices around the league who will get looks from teams on the hunt for new front-office leadership. Guys such as Trent Kirchner and Scott Fitterer in Seattle, Jeff Ireland and Terry Fontenot in New Orleans, George Paton in Minnesota, Champ Kelly in Chicago, Mike Borgonzi in Kansas City, Ed Dodds in Indianapolis, John Spytek in Tampa Bay, Joe Schoen in Buffalo, and Nick Caserio and Eliot Wolf in New England. Steelers pro scouting director Brandon Hunt is a possible successor to GM Kevin Colbert.

The Texans, Falcons, Lions and Jaguars have all fired GMs since the start of the season. Other places that could see a change at GM include Carolina, Chicago and the Giants. It's possible that Washington will hire a GM this offseason. There could be more turnover at that position than at head coach, which means sweeping changes in several organizations.

Ireland is among several former GMs looking to get another shot, and he might get strong consideration. He has rebounded nicely from his days as Miami's GM. Former Lions GM Martin Mayhew, now a 49ers vice president of player personnel, could be a candidate in Jacksonville or elsewhere after helping the 49ers build a strong roster. Former Browns GM Ray Farmer, now a Rams consultant, interviewed with Houston last year and is a well-respected evaluator who had forces against him in Cleveland (such as the owner wanting Johnny Manziel).

A potential GM name to watch in Atlanta is Rams director of college scouting Brad Holmes, who has a Les Snead-Rich McKay connection.

What about the college coaches?

Panthers coach Matt Rhule, coming out of Baylor, was last year's most buzz-worthy head-coaching candidate, and though this year might not have a definitive college-to-NFL choice, plenty of coaches could gain traction.

Multiple industry sources point to Iowa State's Matt Campbell as an option, both for his demeanor and potential NFL intrigue. Going 34-27 at Iowa State carries a ton of weight. But it seems that he is fine staying in college at ISU or elsewhere, too. He will have options either way.

Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald can get involved whenever he wants, but there's no real movement with him and the Bears, at least not this early. Chicago might be the one NFL job he would consider. Bears minority owner Pat Ryan is a Northwestern grad and a big Fitzgerald fan. But there has been no evidence that Fitzgerald is willing to jump, and 15 years into his Northwestern tenure, he has more job security than he ever has.

And don't forget about Florida's Dan Mullen, whose latest quarterback prospect, Kyle Trask, is in line for a Heisman Trophy. People close to Mullen believe that he would entertain the NFL at some point and could garner interest when he does.

We're not sensing much appetite for Michigan's Jim Harbaugh, who could be on his way out of Ann Arbor after a disappointing season. Perhaps a team enamored with Harbaugh's work in San Francisco will double down with him. There's no candidate out there who can match his NFL winning percentage, but it's possible that the window has passed.

Quick hits

• Multiple people around the league expect Jets GM Joe Douglas to keep his job, leaning into a six-year contract with time to rebuild the roster. The Jets will likely move on from Gase and look for a new coach who can maximize the talents of Trevor Lawrence, and Douglas -- who, by the way, was with Pederson in Philadelphia -- will be part of that process. The Jets job will be a pretty good one, despite the recent ineptitude. They potentially have a generational QB to mold, four of the first 65 picks in April's draft, including potentially the No. 1 pick, and $80-plus million in cap space.

• Tony Dungy's presence on the Texans' committee to hire a coach and GM could bode well for Jim Caldwell. They have the Colts connection from when Caldwell succeeded Dungy in Indianapolis, and Caldwell's 36-28 record while in Detroit is viewed more favorably today against the backdrop of Patricia's 13-29-1 record there. Dungy is one of five committee members, along with Jimmy Johnson, former Texans wideout Andre Johnson, San Antonio Spurs CEO R.C. Buford and Fritz Pollard Alliance executive director Rod Graves.

• There's a strong sense among many in the league that Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will get one of the jobs. That's the assumption. He's organized, he has coached several offensive positions as well as handling coordinator duties, and Josh Allen continues to improve under his watch. Keep an eye on the Chargers if that comes open, as Daboll and Chargers GM Tom Telesco went to the same high school.

• We've talked to a few industry sources who consider Jacksonville the best job of the four general manager openings, citing an owner who wants to win, nearly $80 million in projected cap space, the angle on the No. 2 overall pick (for Ohio State's Justin Fields, presumably) and a group of good, young players already in place. "It's a rebuild, but if you're into that, it's a great rebuild situation," an NFC exec said. Another name to watch here: Patriots pro personnel director Dave Ziegler.

• There's a belief in some league circles that Joe Judge -- whose Giants sit atop the NFC East, thanks to a four-game winning streak -- could have more say over personnel matters in the future. What that means for current GM Dave Gettleman is still unclear. But Judge might want to pair with his own personnel man to strengthen his vision for the team, and his Patriots ties with Ziegler or Monti Ossenfort, a former Patriots personnel man now with the Titans, could come into play. Earlier in the season, there was a presumption that Gettleman would be out. But a four-game winning streak has the Giants atop the NFC East (even if they are just 5-7) and Gettleman's roster suddenly looking better than it used to.