Week 14 of the 2020 NFL schedule comes rolling in after NFC East "Statement Weekend." Who knew? The Giants and Redskins stayed tied atop the division when both won huge games on the road against probable playoff teams. We'll see if they can keep it going on Sunday, when New York plays host to Arizona and Washington travels to Arizona to play San Francisco.
Other matchups with playoff implications include Minnesota-Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh-Buffalo, Indianapolis-Las Vegas and Baltimore-Cleveland on Monday night.
In addition to asking our experts for the biggest potential upsets, fantasy football flops and sleepers, we inquired about a Defensive Player of the Year and what will happen with Sam Darnold come 2021.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 13?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Giants (+2.5) over Cardinals. This is about the Giants' defense. Look for New York to force Kyler Murray to throw from the pocket -- with interior stunts that don't allow him to step up. By doing that, New York can limit Murray's ability to break contain and play disciplined zone coverage in the secondary. Right now, that's the book on Murray.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior NFL writer: Giants (+2.5) over Cardinals. Even with backup QB Colt McCoy in for injured starter Daniel Jones, the Giants are getting it done. Winners of four in a row, they're relying on a defense that's covering lights-out these days. The Cardinals have dropped three straight and four of five. Don't be surprised if Cardinals QB Kyler Murray's frustrating experience continues against the Giants.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Patriots (+5) over Rams. I know the Patriots' offense hasn't been as explosive as the Rams'. And I know the Rams' defense is one of the NFL's best. But if you told me that Patriots coach Bill Belichick would figure out a way to confuse Rams quarterback Jared Goff, I'd buy it. And don't forget that the Patriots are tied for No. 2 in the NFL in non-offensive touchdowns (four). They'll find a way to score.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: Bengals (+4) over Cowboys. Just because Joe Burrow is injured doesn't mean the Cowboys aren't terrible, too. After doing a double take at the line I had to do a quick check with FPI, and sure enough, I wasn't seeing things: It favors the Bengals. And the model knows about both teams' quarterback situations, too.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Raiders (+3.0) over Colts. This Raiders team is quite the enigma, as it outscored the Chiefs in a pair of games this season (handing Kansas City its only loss of the year to date) and then got all it could handle from the winless Jets last week. The formula for an upset here is to win at the point of attack, as the Raiders have the personnel up front to semi-neutralize an awesome Indy front seven.
Where will Sam Darnold play in 2021?
Bowen: Bears. If Matt Nagy is back as the Bears' head coach in 2021, then I see Chicago making a move for Darnold. The value? Chicago sends a 2021 second-round pick and a 2022 fifth-round pick to New York. Mitchell Trubisky will be a free agent, and Nick Foles isn't the answer. The Bears will need a starting quarterback, and Darnold -- despite his inconsistent play -- has first-round traits.
Reid: Broncos. Since future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning retired, Broncos football boss John Elway has failed to acquire even a serviceable signal-caller. Although Darnold has had an awful run with the Jets, he still has arm talent. And I would be really surprised if it took a first-round pick for Elway to pry Darnold from the Jets. I mean, Darnold still has a lot to prove and the Jets are presumably looking toward the draft for a fresh start.
Seifert: Broncos. GM John Elway is going to find himself in a situation that has grown familiar since Peyton Manning's retirement. He won't be enamored with his current starter (Drew Lock, at the moment) but is not in a position to draft one of the top QB prospects. An alternative possibility would be to acquire Darnold, even if it requires a mid-first-round pick to take yet another stab at finding a franchise quarterback.
Walder: Broncos. But no matter who it is, I think the acquisition price will be significantly less than what my colleagues propose above. The last time Darnold was elite at any level was 2016, and right now he's just a busted quarterback prospect. I think Denver could bring him in as an upside play to compete with another quarterback option (preferably not Drew Lock), but there's no need to pay a premium.
Yates: Colts. This would be a full-circle acquisition, as Darnold was taken third overall in 2018, a pick originally held by the Colts (it was traded to the Jets weeks before the draft). Indy's top two quarterbacks are scheduled to be free agents this offseason, and adding Darnold would give the Colts two routes: Hand Darnold the keys to a really solid roster next season, or, more likely, give him one year behind Philip Rivers to fine-tune his game under respected offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni.
Who's your pick to win Defensive Player of the Year?
Bowen: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. I do think Steelers outside linebacker T.J. Watt should be in the discussion here. But it's still Donald. The Rams defensive tackle has logged 11 sacks this year, with four forced fumbles. He's the league's most dominant defender with high-level disruptive ability.
Reid: T.J. Watt, OLB, Steelers. It's not just that Watt leads the league in both sacks and tackles for loss, though that would be enough. But Watt also continues to provide an anchor for a Steelers defense that has lost inside linebacker Devin Bush and outside linebacker Bud Dupree for the season. Some (all?) of my colleagues will point to Donald, arguing that the Los Angeles Rams defensive lineman is the standard by which all defensive players in today's game are measured. Granted. Here's the thing, though: Michael Jordan didn't win the NBA MVP award every year. This year, Watt is the top defensive player.
Seifert: Donald. I've been advocating for Browns DE Myles Garrett for much of this season, but his recent COVID-19 diagnosis obviously set back his candidacy. It's hard to imagine a serious discussion landing anywhere else.
Walder: Donald. He's second in the league in sacks, is the solo leader in sacks created and has the highest pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle in the league. Oh, and that's all despite the fact he's double-teamed on 70% of pass rushes as an interior lineman, the highest rate among qualifiers. He's a huge part of the reason the Rams have one of the best pass defenses in the league.
Yates: Donald. Bill Belichick last won the NFL's Coach of the Year award in 2010. He is -- in my estimation -- the greatest head coach in NFL history. At some point, we normalize greatness so much that we overlook it. I don't want that to be the case with Donald, who is every bit as deserving to win DPOY this year as he was in 2017 and 2018.
Fantasy playoffs start this week: Who's a fringe player who should be started?
Bowen: T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts. Hilton has scored at least 18 PPR fantasy points in his past two games, and the Colts are scheming targets for him on crossers, in-breakers, more. And those are staple throws for quarterback Philip Rivers in this Colts offense. With a Week 14 matchup against a zone-heavy Raiders defense, Hilton could sneak in the door as a WR3 in deeper PPR leagues.
Reid: Cam Sims, WR, Washington. With Pittsburgh focused on stopping top wideout Terry McLaurin, Sims played a major role in Washington's stunning 23-17 road victory over the league's last undefeated team. Sims clicked with QB Alex Smith and had a season-high five receptions for 92 yards -- his second-highest yardage total of the season.
Seifert: David Montgomery, RB, Bears. The Bears will face a Texans defense that is allowing an average of 4.86 yards per carry, second-worst in the NFL. They've also allowed 16 rushing touchdowns, tied for fourth most in the league. The Bears would prefer to ride Montgomery rather than take their chances with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.
Walder: Tim Patrick, WR, Broncos. Only if you're desperate, but he's an option. If we multiply Next Gen Stats' completion percentage over expectation by the air yards on each pass, we get completed air yards over expectation. In other words, the extra value from those extra completions a good catching receiver makes. Tim Patrick ranks 11th in that stat this season, sandwiched between Allen Robinson II and Will Fuller V, despite fewer targets than either.
Yates: Keke Coutee, WR, Texans. With Will Fuller out for the rest of the season, the Texans need others to step up. They received incredible efforts from both Coutee and Chad Hansen in Week 13, with Coutee snaring eight of nine targets for 141 yards. It's hard to count on another 22-point day in Week 14, but Coutee should stay busy and anyone catching passes from Deshaun Watson piques my interest.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop in Week 14?
Bowen: Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns. Mayfield lit up the Titans in Week 13, posting 29.54 fantasy points. He was dialed in versus a defense that couldn't generate a pass rush. However, I don't expect Mayfield to get those clean-pocket throws again in the Week 14 matchup against the Ravens. Look for Baltimore to heat him up with pressure, while playing aggressive coverage in the secondary.
Reid: JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers. The Steelers just can't get the ball downfield to the physical receiver, who is averaging a career-low 8.7 yards per catch. The Bills' secondary will continue to lock in on Smith-Schuster. Stay away.
Seifert: Ronald Jones II, RB, Buccaneers. Coach Bruce Arians said recently that he wants to feature Jones as much as possible, but it's worth noting that he'll be facing a Vikings defense that has allowed only seven rushing touchdowns, third best in the NFL.
Walder: Ty Johnson, RB, Jets. He'll rightfully be a hot pickup with injuries hitting the Jets' backfield hard and after racking up 104 rushing yards last week. But we're still talking about a running back behind the 29th-ranked run-blocking team in a game where the Jets are likely to be behind.
Yates: Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles. There are myriad issues with the Eagles' offense, but the workload of Sanders over the past two weeks is exceptionally curious. He is by far their most explosive playmaker and has just 16 carries over the past two weeks, ceding work to Jordan Howard and Boston Scott more frequently than expected. Now he faces off against a Saints defense that just dominates opposing rushing attacks.