We're expecting significant coaching turnover in the NFL this offseason. Five teams hired new head coaches after the 2019 season, but we've already seen three teams fire their coaches this year, and the Jets might inspire their fan base to revolt if they don't move on from Adam Gase. There are still three weeks left to go in the regular season, but there are as many as nine more teams that could consider changing their coach.
Let's evaluate the various coaching opportunities that might come available this offseason and rank how desirable they would be for a qualified candidate. I think there are 12 total teams that could have vacancies, but I'm leaving out the Bengals, Cowboys and Vikings, who seem less likely to fire their coaches than the other franchises. Each of those three jobs would rank in the upper half of this list if they were to come available.
I'm evaluating these jobs based on several criteria. Most important, of course, is whether the team has a talented roster and a star quarterback. After that, we're looking at things like future cap space and draft capital, the difficulty of each team's respective division and how patient the present ownership group has been when its team has struggled. Also, note that we're looking at this exclusively from the perspective of a possible coach as opposed to that of a new general manager.
I'll start with the least desirable opportunity of the nine and work my way up to the most tantalizing job:
Jump to a team:
ATL | CHI | DEN
DET | HOU | JAX
LAC | NYJ | PHI
9. Chicago Bears (6-7)
Pros: core talent
Cons: lack of cap space, no long-term quarterback
Over the next three weeks, the Bears could run the table and make it into the playoffs or lose two of three and spark a regime change. Regardless of what happens, it's clear that the all-in moves general manager Ryan Pace made before 2018 didn't work. Mitchell Trubisky hasn't developed into a great passer, in part because coach Matt Nagy doesn't appear to be any sort of quarterback whisperer. (The fact that he was playing the defenses ranked 26th and 30th in pass defense DVOA might have something to do with Trubisky's recent hot streak.) Pass-rusher Khalil Mack is a great player, but he hasn't been enough for the Bears to net a playoff win, let alone compete for a Super Bowl.
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It's hard to be enthusiastic about what's left. The Bears have $2.5 million in cap space next year before re-signing players such as wideout Allen Robinson, defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris and safety Tashaun Gipson, let alone addressing the quarterback position. They project to have the 14th pick in the 2021 draft, which could leave them too late in the hunt for quarterbacks. After making the Mack deal and repeatedly trading up in drafts past, Chicago also isn't in position to make another all-in move for a young quarterback. It has a more competitive roster than most of the other teams on this list, but its ceiling is severely capped.
8. Detroit Lions (5-8)
Pros: quarterback
Cons: lack of cap space, core talent
The Lions can have cap space or they can have Matthew Stafford, but unless they want to hand their veteran quarterback a new deal, they can't have both. They have $1.2 million in cap space in 2021 and are locked into deals for two disappointing free agents: defensive end Trey Flowers and offensive tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai. Detroit's recent drafts have mostly been dispiriting, so the hope has to be that a new coaching staff will be able to come in and unlock the talents of cornerback Jeff Okudah and linebacker Jahlani Tavai. One of the few stars the organization has developed is wide receiver Kenny Golladay, who is set to become a free agent after the season.
Regardless of who comes in to take over as coach and general manager, it'll probably be ownership that ends up deciding what to do with the 32-year-old Stafford, who has two years and $42.1 million remaining on his deal. Trading Stafford would free up $10.1 million and push the Lions into yet another rebuilding phase; extending him would free up valuable short-term cap space to add defensive help for the next coach. The Broncos and 49ers, two potential trade suitors for Stafford, are projected to pick below the Lions at Nos. 11 and 13, respectively.
If Detroit can package its own pick and a first-rounder from one of those teams to swap with, say, the Bengals at No. 3, it could try to kick off a rebuild. If that's not possible, the organization seems more likely to kick the Stafford can down the road and stick with its longtime starter. The Stafford decision should influence what sort of coach the Lions try to hire.
7. Denver Broncos (5-8)
Pros: young talent, cap space
Cons: quarterback, tough division, ownership uncertainty
There's a lot to like about what the Broncos have added around Drew Lock, but after an uneven 2020 campaign, it's unclear whether general manager John Elway thinks his second-year passer is the team's quarterback of the future. Any new hire will undoubtedly have to be on the same page with Elway about that decision. The Broncos could choose to be active in the quarterback market, given that they have $25.5 million in cap room and could free up more than $40 million in additional space by cutting veteran defenders Von Miller, Jurrell Casey and A.J. Bouye.
The most difficult part of the equation to gauge here is the Broncos' ownership, which is being run by a temporary trust as the children of deceased owner Pat Bowlen fight over control. The league threw a shot across the organization's bow last month, with Roger Goodell able to fine teams that don't have one owner with a minimum amount of equity in the team or final say over voting matters up to $10 million per season. The possibility might have led the Titans to resolve their ownership questions last weekend, but there has been no movement on the Denver front.
While ownership might not seem like a big deal, that sort of uncertainty can prevent a team from piecing together a stable long-term plan or having the sort of budget they might want each year. (Losing $10 million from that budget also wouldn't help matters.) When the Broncos' situation is resolved, it's unclear whether a new owner will want to run things the same way or retain the existing coach. If you're a coach with options elsewhere, the lack of a known hand with control of the checkbook or a steady hand under center makes this job less appealing.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (4-8-1)
Pros: quarterback, easy division, stable ownership
Cons: quarterback, lack of cap space
Different coaches might see Carson Wentz as either a positive or a negative, though I suspect more will find themselves in the former camp. Wentz, after all, was widely regarded as a franchise quarterback before his disastrous 2020 campaign. There are few things coaches love more than rehabilitating a highly regarded quarterback, and there will be some who think that a healthier offensive line and a system refresh might be enough to turn around the 27-year-old Wentz. These would be the same people who try to fix anything electronic by turning it off and on again, and sometimes they're right.
As I wrote about Monday, though, even getting the Eagles under the 2021 cap will be an arduous endeavor. This roster is seriously flawed; now imagine it after letting safety Jalen Mills and offensive lineman Jason Peters leave and cutting tight end Zach Ertz, wideouts DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery and several other players without having any money to sign replacements. With more favorable cap situations, some teams might consider moving on from oft-injured players such as right tackle Lane Johnson and safety Rodney McLeod this offseason. Instead, the Eagles will be relying on them to return and stay healthy. Next season will likely be a retooling year for Philly, if not a straight year of rebuilding.
The good news is that Jeffrey Lurie has generally been one of the NFL's most patient team owners, with the short tenures of Ray Rhodes (as coach) and Chip Kelly (as football czar) as exceptions. If this job comes available, the new Eagles coach should get a few years to reshape the roster. Unless the Eagles have given up on their franchise quarterback, though, he'll probably need to believe he can fix Wentz, and then actually pull it off.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-12)
Pros: high draft pick, patient ownership, cap space
Cons: core talent
Jaguars owner Shahid Khan, on the other hand, gave Mike Mularkey one year before letting Gus Bradley and Doug Marrone combine for nine years at the coaching helm with all of one winning season to show for it alongside deposed general manager Dave Caldwell. The Jaguars are in the middle of yet another rebuild, but if the team fires Marrone after what might end up as a one-win season, the new coach should expect to get three full years to turn things around.
If the Jaguars were to somehow land ahead of the Jets in the race for Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence at the top of the draft, this job would go even higher. As it is, the Jags, projected to be No. 2 overall, should still be in position for Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. The organization's decision to draft and then prop up Blake Bortles for years ruined what could have been a Super Bowl-caliber peak; whomever Khan hires to take over the two key roles in the organization will need to be on the same page as the Jags draft their next franchise passer.
Jacksonville also has extra first- (Rams) and second-round (Vikings) picks in 2021 and more than $78 million in cap space to spend this offseason. There's not much here, but whoever takes over will have the opportunity and the time to build something special.
4. New York Jets (0-13)
Pros: path to Trevor Lawrence, cap space, low expectations
Cons: bereft of talent, ownership
If the Jets and Jaguars swapped spots at the top of the draft, the Jags job would be No. 3 on the list, while the Jets job would be eighth or ninth. The Jets are this high because of the possibility that they'll end up taking Lawrence with the first overall pick. Lawrence could break Jets fans' hearts by staying at Clemson, but they would still be in position to draft a quarterback with the top pick. In 1997, when Peyton Manning decided to stay at Tennessee, New York ended up drafting wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson.
This assumes the Jets end up with Lawrence, and while he profiles as a superstar quarterback, this team might have the worst roster in the league. General manager Joe Douglas will have more than $82 million to work with as the Jets potentially move on from quarterback Sam Darnold, but it might take a year or two before players want to actually join this organization. Any new coach will be a fan favorite solely by virtue of not being Adam Gase, but this ownership group was also dysfunctional enough to hire Gase in the first place, let alone all the other stuff that's happened with the Jets over the past few seasons. This seems a lot like a "wouldn't want to be part of any club that would have me" situation, but the lure of Lawrence is real.
3. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
Pros: solid core, ownership
Cons: lack of cap space
Arthur Blank's tenure running the Falcons has generally been associated with stability. After Bobby Petrino's disastrous season at the helm in 2007, Blank has had two permanent coaches over the ensuing 13 seasons in Mike Smith and Dan Quinn. Falcons fans might wish that Blank were more aggressive to make moves, but that patience has generally been a good thing for coaches.
At the same time, this is a job for a veteran coach who thinks he can win a Super Bowl with this roster over the next couple of years. The Falcons are $25 million over the projected cap in 2021 and locked into a core of quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Julio Jones, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, offensive tackle Jake Matthews, pass-rusher Dante Fowler Jr. and linebacker Deion Jones.
Third-year receiver Calvin Ridley is coming up for an extension, but the ideal coach here would be able to rebuild the defense on the cheap, something neither Smith nor Quinn was able to do for an extended period. With the Panthers in the middle of a rebuild and the Bucs and Saints starting quarterbacks in their 40s, the Falcons might see 2021 and 2022 as their final Super Bowl window before blowing things up. I would expect Blank's coaching decision to reflect that possibility.
2. Houston Texans (4-9)
Pros: Deshaun Watson. They have Watson.
Cons: ... everything else?
The Texans are $12.7 million over the projected salary cap for 2021. Many of the deals that former coach/general manager Bill O'Brien and front-office executive Jack Easterby negotiated were significantly over market value and contained 2021 guarantees, making it difficult for the organization to rebuild the roster. New owner Cal McNair appears to have been manipulated by O'Brien and then by Easterby in succession, leaving the Texans as an organization in which any coach or general manager worth their salt would be worried about their short- or long-term job security.
After spending a league-high $252.4 million in cash this year, McNair might not be willing to even sanction significant investment into the team. On top of all that, the Texans were missing significant draft capital in 2018 and 2020 (reducing the possibility that they're going to develop an unexpected young star on the cheap) and don't have their first- or second-round picks in 2021.
Watson, though! They have a 25-year-old superstar quarterback, and while we've seen that he alone isn't enough to carry a team to the playoffs in 2020, any sort of rebuild will be easier with him around. The Texans desperately need depth, and they're going to feel the impact of the 2019-20 mismanagement for years to come, but Watson is the sort of building block no other team on this list has.
1. Los Angeles Chargers (4-9)
Pros: young core, quarterback, low expectations
Cons: possibly cursed, the division in which they play
The Chargers don't have Watson, but with Justin Herbert putting together a promising rookie season, they appear to have a long-term solution at quarterback. And even once you get past the quarterback position, this team has a solid group of players with which to build around. General manager Tom Telesco has put together a championship-caliber core, although we have to acknowledge how frequently the players in that core seem to get injured. Defensive end Joey Bosa and safety Derwin James have both been superstars when healthy, but the two have combined to play just 529 snaps together since the Chargers took James in the first round in 2018.
On one hand, some of the fixes here should be easy. A replacement-level head coach would be expected to manage late-game situations better than Mike McCoy or Anthony Lynn, who cost the team three points just before halftime in Sunday's win over the Falcons. Lynn has taken over as the team's de-facto special-teams coach, the third person to serve in that role this season, but the Chargers have the worst special-teams unit of the past 10 years. Even if they are the worst special-teams unit in the league again in 2021, they should be better than they were during this disastrous campaign.
Some of the fixes are more difficult. The Chargers will need to add as many as four new offensive linemen this offseason. Outside linebacker Melvin Ingram and tight end Hunter Henry are free-agents-to-be, and the team has only $7.5 million in cap space. It's unclear whether there's any sort of long-term fan base for the team in Los Angeles, which could reduce or eliminate its home-field advantage. At the same time, any coach is going to take a talented roster over those concerns. None of the other teams likely to go after a new coach this offseason can promise what the Chargers can to their next coach. Now, if that coach can reverse curses, it would certainly help.