Grading new NFL head-coaching hires: Experts predict how each will fare

Five NFL teams have agreed to terms to hire new coaches in the 2020 head-coaching carousel, with the Washington Redskins adding Ron Rivera, Dallas Cowboys choosing Mike McCarthy, Carolina Panthers poaching Matt Rhule from the collegiate ranks, New York Giants adding Joe Judge and Cleveland Browns going with Kevin Stefanski.

We asked ESPN national NFL writers Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler to discuss the hires and give their grades for each team:

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Cleveland Browns to hire Kevin Stefanski

Stefanski's background: 14 seasons (2006-19) on the staff of the Minnesota Vikings, taking over as offensive coordinator in the middle of the 2018 season

Graziano: I guess this was the Browns' guy all along. They came close to hiring him last year, before they went with Freddie Kitchens, and the way things went this season made them wish they had. Stefanski is ultra-prepared, smart and organized. He has coached every position on the offense, showed adaptability to coach in different offensive systems and appears to be ready for this opportunity. The Browns see him as forward-thinking and open-minded on analytics, which I think we can all agree feels like a departure from his predecessor, no?

Fowler: Yep, the Browns wanted to move galaxies away from Kitchens, who was woefully underprepared each week. Though relatively unproven, Stefanski has a lot of qualities the Browns need, many of which you mentioned -- he's also good with people and has an offense suited for Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. Work that play-action with two good backs and two good receivers and control tempo. Stefanski is mild-mannered, so let's see how he juggles big personalities. My biggest concern: Will this new regime have the personnel chops?

Graziano: That's the next piece -- who's the general manager, and how much input will the new coach have in that decision? My understanding is that Stefanski doesn't have a particular guy in mind. (The potential candidate with whom he'd be closest is the Vikings' George Paton, who doesn't seem likely to leave Minnesota.) Do the Browns bring back Andrew Berry from the Eagles? The success of the partnership between Stefanski and the new GM will determine the success of both.

Fowler: Paton would be a home run. Doubt he wants to join a Browns front office that's infamous for its methods of mismanagement, though. There's a lot of leaguewide buzz about Berry, who is considered a sharp guy but also is relatively unproven when it comes to building a roster. At least the Browns have enough talent in most spots, needing upgrades at offensive line, tight end, maybe linebacker. But there are tons of pieces needed to make this work. Stefanski's biggest challenge will be calming the choppy waters in that locker room. My guess is if the right people get the ball, all will be fine.

Grading Stefanski to Cleveland:

Graziano: B-plus. I like the coach, I like the hire, I think he will perform well in the bigger role, to the extent that success is possible in Cleveland. Just maintaining consistency in keeping those without previous NFL head-coaching experience out of the "A" range.

Fowler: B-plus. Feels pretty safe to say this is a stronger hire than the franchise's past few. He will put the Browns in position to win games. But many really good people before Stefanski have been swallowed up by the uneasiness in Cleveland. It seems like he has the right disposition to handle it, but nobody knows that yet. And the Vikings' offense, though solid for much of the year, had enough curious performances to knock Stefanski's résumé a bit.

New York Giants hire Joe Judge

Judge's background: Eight seasons as an assistant for the New England Patriots (special-teams assistant or coordinator from 2012 to 2019, and wide receivers coach in 2019); three seasons as an assistant at Alabama (special teams coach from 2009 to 2011)

Fowler: Hey, maybe Judge is the next John Harbaugh, a special-teams coach who is great at game-week planning and bringing people together. His reputation is good. But it feels like the Giants fumbled here. Matt Rhule was a natural fit in New York. He's from there, coached there, wanted to be there. They probably could have closed this deal. And the Giants need two things -- someone who can maximize Daniel Jones' potential, and fixing the defense. Judge doesn't have extensive experience on either side.

Graziano: I don't know, man. Maybe I'm just travel-weary or sleep-deprived or both, but ... I like this move! Judge has coached under Bill Belichick for nine years and Nick Saban for three years before that. He has pedigree. I know from talking to people in the Giants organization the last couple of weeks that they were especially enamored with the job former Belichick assistant Brian Flores did in Miami this year with nothing, and so I wasn't surprised when Judge showed up on their radar. I expect them to look for some coordinators who have head-coaching experience, though. Wade Phillips, anyone?

Fowler: Agree with the pedigree, but boy that has been a mixed bag. For every Flores, there is Matt Patricia or Josh McDaniels -- not the modern version, but the one who thought trading up for Tim Tebow was a sound football move. You could argue Belichick should groom his assistants better. Phillips would be good for the short term, but Judge would need an exit strategy. On offense, Jason Garrett is a capable playcaller, if he gets the job. He's not the sexiest pick for offensive coordinator, but I would expect him to emphasize play-action with Jones, get him on the move.

Graziano: Jones is really the key to the whole thing. Whoever they hired as coach, along with holdover general manager Dave Gettleman, was always going to rise and fall with the success or failure of Jones. If he's a franchise quarterback, they'll last, and maybe thrive. If not, they'll all get fired in a few years and the team will start over. Way of the world. Judge's job will be to create a culture in which the entire roster can grow and thrive, but Jones in particular. Whether it's Garrett or someone else, whoever the choice is for offensive coordinator has to be able to click with Jones -- and iron out those fumbles!

Grading Judge to New York:

Graziano: B. As I said, I like the move. But as with Matt Rhule (see below), can't go up to the A range for a guy who has never done the job before. Full credit to the Giants, though, for going outside the box and their comfort zone.

Fowler: C-plus. I'm open to being wrong here, and it's hard to knock the Giants for avoiding groupthink. His special teams units have been awesome. I just liked other candidates in this spot -- Rhule being one, Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy another.

Carolina Panthers hire Matt Rhule

Rhule's background: Three seasons as Baylor coach (19-20 record from 2017 to 2019); four seasons as Temple coach (28-23 from 2013 to 2016); one season as assistant offensive line coach for the New York Giants (2012)

Graziano: This is a bit of a surprise to me, since it was starting to sound as if Rhule and the Giants had a lot of mutual interest. But this was a guy on whom Carolina owner David Tepper had his eye from the beginning, and he gets his man. When you talk to people around the league, the term they use for why they like Rhule is "program-builder," referring to the work he did at Temple and Baylor to resurrect programs there. Carolina's program is fairly well built, though obviously with some uncertainty at quarterback and the uncertain future of Cam Newton, but Rhule's leadership credentials seem solid. I guess the question is how they transfer from college to the NFL, right?

Fowler: That is a mild concern, Dan, and in a coaching cycle that prioritized NFL experience from the start, Rhule has one year of that, as the Giants' assistant offensive line coach in 2012. His staff will be crucial. But he's everything else the Panthers wanted -- a relatively young coach who rose up the ranks quickly and can problem-solve. But can he win now with this roster?

Graziano: Who's the quarterback? That's a huge part of the answer to that question. Newton has one more year on his contract, but it's not guaranteed, and the Panthers would only take a $2 million dead-money hit if they went a different direction. I don't know that they will go in a different direction, just that they could. And when you ask people there, they all say, "We have to get Cam healthy" before making any final decisions. At this point, Rhule becomes a big part of that decision-making process, with a lot of potential choices in a fascinating offseason NFL quarterback market.

Fowler: A seven-year deal gives Rhule plenty of time to fix the Panthers' roster, and with the seventh overall pick in the 2020 draft, expect Carolina to at least explore selecting a quarterback. I'm expecting Rhule to prioritize the running game with Christian McCaffrey and an offensive line that needs upgrades. Managing the locker room and instilling a culture won't be a problem for Rhule. But the Panthers passed on several good offensive minds, including Josh McDaniels, so Rhule will need a home run plan for his offensive coordinator. Quarterback isn't his background.

Grading Rhule to Carolina:

Graziano: B. Have to knock off points for the lack of NFL head-coaching experience, though it does help that he did a year in the league as a Tom Coughlin assistant coach. Tepper is betting that Rhule can build and maintain a long-term program in Carolina, but any bet on a college guy who hasn't done it at the NFL level comes with at least some risk, which is what necessarily keeps this grade out of the A range.

Fowler: B-plus. Love the personality, the ability to command a room. In those areas, Rhule is a head coach, face of the franchise all the way. The key is whether he can expedite the learning curve to overseeing every aspect of an NFL job.

Dallas Cowboys hire Mike McCarthy

McCarthy's background: 13 seasons as coach of the Packers (125-77-2 from 2006 to 2018), including a Super Bowl title in 2010; six seasons as offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints (2000-04) and San Francisco 49ers (2005)

Fowler: The Cowboys made a win-now hire for a coach with a .613 winning percentage, 10 playoff wins and a Super Bowl ring. Let's see if McCarthy truly has learned from his final years in Green Bay, which featured a stale offensive attack. He has experience with navigating a storied franchise. But how does this address an underachieving defense, Dan?

Graziano: Well, it appears that responsibility will fall to Mike Nolan, who's set to become McCarthy's defensive coordinator in Dallas. I know management was interested in bringing in some new schemes and ideas on that side of the ball after they thought Rod Marinelli's scheme failed to generate enough consistent QB pressure this season . I'm also interested to see what he does with the offensive coaching staff, since Cowboys ownership is enamored with Kellen Moore and might want him to get more of a chance to develop. Lot of questions still to answer there, but fundamentally, this hire does what most of these hires should do: ignores the old "offensive guy/defensive guy" debate and picks a capital H, capital C Head Coach. You had to figure teams would lean this way after everybody went with inexperienced guys last year, no?

Fowler: Yeah, and with a fairly weak coordinator pool, Ron Rivera and McCarthy were well-positioned to dominate the coaching cycle. Some teams simply don't have the patience for a grooming job. Dallas' culture is steeped in the Jerry Jones way, and no head coach is changing that. But the Cowboys do need some fresh ideas, a new voice in the building and more accountability. Some players believe the message got stale and some guys were overworked, contributing to bad late-season play. How do you like McCarthy's chances to impact the locker room?

Graziano: Always helps when you can stand in front of players and show them a Super Bowl ring. Gets their attention. The biggest thing for a new coach is to get the buy-in, and McCarthy's past success will help with that. Look, man, I can't find anything wrong with this hire. Did McCarthy's offense get stale in Green Bay at the end? Sure. It happens. At this point, I take the guy at his word that he has learned from how it ended there, and I see a team with a win-now roster hiring a coach who's done a bunch of winning.

Grading McCarthy to Dallas:

Fowler: B+. Leaving some wiggle room here since McCarthy had his issues with in-game management, which doomed Jason Garrett. But every other box is checked here, assuming he gets the right assistants.

Graziano: A. I feel the same way I did about Rivera to Washington. Whether he brings in his own playcaller or stays with the guys who are in place, the point is that McCarthy knows how to do this job.

Washington Redskins hire Ron Rivera

(Note: This was written before Washington agreed to terms with Scott Turner as its new offensive coordinator.)

Rivera's background: Nine seasons as coach of the Panthers (76-63-1 from 2011 to 2019); six seasons as defensive coordinator of the San Diego Chargers (2008-10) and Chicago Bears (2004-06)

Graziano: I actually think this is a better hire than Washington deserves, and I hope he knows what he's getting into. This has not been a place that puts coaches in the best possible position to succeed. And while the removal of team president Bruce Allen is encouraging, there's still a lot of funky infrastructure with this team that involves the owner and the way he operates. Rivera is going to need a good personnel guy in the front office. Who can they get for that?

Fowler: Part of me can't believe Washington pulled this off -- not just the hire but looking like adults in the room and firing Allen. Rivera's proven ability to navigate a locker room and maximize defensive talent made this an easy call. That good-personnel-guy issue looms large, Dan, and though we can pick plenty of qualified names -- who actually works well with Ron? That's an issue. Also an issue: Who is his offensive coordinator? He had his struggles with that in Carolina.

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Keim: Rivera up for the challenge with Redskins

ESPN Redskins reporter John Keim talks about Ron Rivera's anticipated arrival in Washington and Josh Norman's prediction that big changes will be coming.

Graziano: He has, and I'm not sure you can look to his Carolina past for the answer. (Though Mike Shula and Norv Turner are likely both available!) I do know Washington really likes Kevin O'Connell, who's there already and did some quality work this season with rookie first-round pick Dwayne Haskins. I wonder if Rivera would want to stay the course with a guy who has a connection with the franchise quarterback. Either way, I like the move because he's a real head coach, as opposed to a coordinator who hasn't proved he can run the whole team. More teams need to think this way.

Fowler: Retaining O'Connell to develop Haskins for another year with better weapons around him seems like a sensible play -- but reuniting with Cam Newton or Philip Rivers wouldn't shock me, either. Rivera can go in so many directions. Either of the 49ers' coordinators, Mike LaFleur (passing game) and Mike McDaniel (running game), might be enticed to call plays. The game plan seems simple enough: Load up on an experienced offensive staff that will run the ball creatively, then spend time rebuilding the once-proud defense.

Grading Rivera to Washington:

Graziano: A. Washington got a real head coach. That's the best way I can say it, and that's not easy to do in this process. Any questions the team still has to answer are easier because of the faith it can have in the competence and quality of the leader it has brought in to oversee everything.

Fowler: A-. The Panthers' spiral in 2019 and uneven offensive play are about the only knocks on Rivera, but that's being picky. The Redskins were considered the worst job available but got one of the best candidates, a two-time AP coach of the year.