I wrote last week about the four NFL teams that have seen their playoff odds improve most this season, as measured by ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Let's go in the opposite direction and take a look at the teams whose chances of making it into the postseason have fallen off most significantly since the season began. If you like optimistic, sunny outlooks about your favorite team, this might not be the column for you.
As you can probably guess, one of the four teams whose playoff odds have declined most since Week 1 is the Kansas City Chiefs, who have fallen from virtual locks to worse than a coin flip. They began the season with an 89.2% chance to make another postseason run and now sit at just 43.2% after a 3-4 start.
Since I wrote about the Chiefs at length earlier this week, though, I'm not going to relitigate their ugly start here. Instead, I've substituted a fifth team on this list. Three of our four teams are in the NFC, but the NFL's biggest faller comes from the AFC, where a team on the rise has taken a dramatic turn toward the bottom of the standings:
Jump to a team:
49ers | Dolphins
Seahawks | Washington
Miami Dolphins (1-6)
Preseason FPI playoff chances: 54.0%
Current FPI playoff chances: 1.1%
Difference: Minus-52.9%
What on earth has happened here? In 2019, the Dolphins went 0-7 to start Brian Flores' career as a head coach and then seemingly turned things around. From that point forward, they went 15-10 through the end of the 2020 season. While a Week 17 blowout loss to Buffalo's backups cost them a shot at the playoffs, it still seemed like they were on the right track. I thought they would win a competitive AFC East race this season.
Instead, the Dolphins seem completely and utterly broken. Their lone win came by a single point when New England's Damien Harris fumbled inside the Miami 10-yard line with 3:35 to go in the fourth quarter. Miami has lost six straight, including a 35-0 shutout against the Bills and narrow defeats to the Jaguars and Falcons. The biggest story surrounding the team is the possibility of trading for quarterback Deshaun Watson, which would be another reset for a franchise two years removed from its last one.
Leaving aside the ethical questions of trading for Watson while he faces 22 civil lawsuits by women accusing him of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior, it's not clear that this team is one quarterback away from competing. I'm not sure that position is really its problem at all. Tua Tagovailoa's injury unquestionably hurt the Dolphins, but he has played some of the best football of his career since he returned. Facing middling competition in the Jags and Falcons, the No. 5 overall pick in last year's draft has completed more than 74% of his passes and posted an opponent-adjusted QBR of 60.2, the 10th-best mark over the last two games.
Two games shouldn't be enough for the Dolphins to convince themselves Tagovailoa is going to be a superstar, but at the same time, 13 starts shouldn't be enough for them to decide that they need to upgrade on him. For most quarterbacks, that amounts to their rookie season. Injuries and the presence of Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2020 have kept Tagovailoa from getting his reps earlier. We don't have a strong enough idea of whether he is or should be their guy.
Plus, could we really argue that Miami has done enough to support Tagovailoa? This is a team with two offensive coordinators who won't reveal which of their coaches is actually calling the plays. The new-look passing attack the offense was supposed to be built around -- Tagovailoa throwing to Will Fuller, DeVante Parker and Jaylen Waddle -- hasn't taken a single snap together with all four players on the field. Mike Gesicki has picked up the slack, but this is still an offense stuck targeting replacement-level players too often. Myles Gaskin has caught 28 passes while averaging 5.2 yards per catch, which would be one of the worst marks in league history for a guy with at least 25 receptions.
Gaskin has garnered some of those targets because his quarterbacks probably want to get the ball out without taking a hit. The Miami offensive line has been wildly disappointing for the second consecutive season. The team ranks last in the league in pass block win rate (PBWR). Austin Jackson, the No. 18 pick in the 2020 draft whom the Dolphins drafted with the selection they acquired from the Steelers in the Minkah Fitzpatrick trade, fared so poorly at left tackle that they have moved him to guard. He's tied for third in the league with six penalties. Nobody on this line is playing well.
On paper, that line didn't look good heading into the season. You couldn't and wouldn't have said the same about the secondary, and that has been the most disappointing part of the roster. Xavien Howard, who was my pick for Defensive Player of the Year in 2020, has allowed four touchdowns this season. Byron Jones, the most expensive player in an ill-fated spending spree in advance of the 2020 season, has allowed 16.6 expected points added (EPA) on 36 targets as the nearest defender in coverage. Justin Coleman can top that, allowing 18 EPA on just 17 targets. Atlanta tight end Kyle Pitts is going to make a lot of secondaries look bad, but Miami tried covering him last week with Eric Rowe and then with Howard and never found a solution.
The Dolphins have allowed a 61.6 QBR to opposing passers this season, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Howard & Co. have also seen their interception rate drop from 3.3% last season to 1.1% in 2021. The only thing that has kept them afloat is forcing fumbles at a high rate, with Miami forcing eight in seven games this season. Forcing fumbles is a skill, but it can't be the entirety of your defense. This team has been unlucky on third downs this season, allowing teams to convert nearly 52% of the time, but it's not as if it has been worldbeaters on first and second down, either.
Worst of all, the Dolphins don't even have the silver lining of coming away with a top draft pick as a result of their lost season. General manager Chris Grier traded away their 2022 first-round pick as part of deals with the 49ers and Eagles before the 2021 draft. They're in position to come away with a useful draft pick from the Niners -- through Week 7, FPI projects it to be No. 13 overall -- but Philadelphia would be the team to benefit if Miami continues to lose, with FPI projecting it to land at No. 5.
Even if their playoff hopes have all but evaporated, the Dolphins can at least try to give a good accounting of themselves after Sunday's game in Buffalo. Over the ensuing seven weeks, they will leave home just once: a matchup against the Jets. Tagovailoa & Co. would feel good about home games against the Texans, Giants and Jets. Their best chance of making 2021 look presentable and feeling some hope for 2022 comes with winning at least four of those six games.
If not, the future seems murky. Flores and Grier would have to worry about their jobs after so many of the draft picks and free-agent signings of the past three years proved to be disappointments. The possibility of trading for Watson might appeal to ownership, but even if the Dolphins did deal for him, what good would it be given how the team has played this season? We've already seen Watson on a team with middling pass protection and a bad defense, and nobody needs to see a second showing of the 2020 Texans. Given how bad they have been this season, quarterback is the least of the Dolphins' problems at the moment.
San Francisco 49ers (2-4)
Preseason FPI playoff chances: 68.4%
Current FPI playoff chances: 21.0%
Difference: Minus-47.4%
The 49ers -- who sent three first-round picks to acquire quarterback Trey Lance in April's draft -- won their first two games of the season and have lost four straight. Three of those losses came against the Packers, Cardinals and pre-Geno Smith Seahawks, but they came back off their bye, went up 9-0 on the Colts in horrible weather and proceeded to get outscored 30-9 the rest of the way. Advanced metrics like the Niners more than their record -- at 14th, their DVOA ranks ahead of the Chargers, Raiders and Titans -- but with the Cardinals and Rams off to a significant lead in the NFC West, they are basically limited to a wild-card chase at this point.
As for reasons the 49ers are struggling, injuries are continuing to flummox them. Five would-be starters are already on injured reserve, while Jimmy Garoppolo, Trent Williams and Emmanuel Moseley have also missed time. Core young players such as Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner are healthy and playing at a high level, but there are too many holes on this roster for opposing teams to single out.
Take the two Carson Wentz touchdown passes on Sunday night, which each came against veteran cornerbacks who signed with the 49ers in September because of injuries. The first came when the Colts used Michael Pittman Jr. to pick Jaquiski Tartt, who was matched up against tight end Mo Alie-Cox in the slot. Josh Norman (26) ran over the pick, but Tartt seemingly expected Norman to switch and run with Alie-Cox. Norman proceeded to run several steps past the pick while Alie-Cox went in the other direction for an easy score.
First Colts passing TD from Sunday. Indy uses a pick to create confusion. Looks like Tartt (3) expects Josh Norman (26) to take his man once he's picked, but Norman continues running to the middle of the field, while Alie-Cox continues into the flat for an easy score. pic.twitter.com/Q9X5b738L2
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 27, 2021
The second touchdown came when the Colts used a fake screen-and-go to isolate Pittman against Dre Kirkpatrick. Kirkpatrick didn't do a bad job in coverage, but he's 32 and got outjumped for a 50/50 ball by a 24-year-old who is 6-foot-4. Norman turns 34 later this month. Both players have had meaningful careers, but they were also on the waiver wire in September for a reason. Kirkpatrick played only three defensive snaps during Sunday's loss, but he was on the field for 54 snaps in Week 4. Norman has been close to an every-down corner in three games.
On one hand, the 49ers can point to injuries and disappointing play. Jason Verrett, who was expected to be their top corner, tore his ACL in Week 1. Moseley missed the first two games of the season with a knee issue. K'Waun Williams was out for two games with a calf injury. Defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans even lost Norman for a game with a chest problem. Fifth-rounder Deommodore Lenoir was starting for three weeks before being taken out of the lineup and eventually made a healthy scratch against Indianapolis, while third-rounder Ambry Thomas gave up three completions on five snaps against the Lions in Week 1 and hasn't seen the field on defense since.
Realistically, this depth chart was a problem before the season started. Verrett's injury history, sadly, is common knowledge. That he was able to stay healthy and play well in 2020 shouldn't have been treated as the expectation for 2021, but San Francisco's plans relied on him to be in the lineup. Moseley and Williams have combined for one 16-game season across 11 tries. It's dangerous for a competitive team to be in a situation in which it is relying on rookie corners, which is why we've seen the Niners go after veterans who are past their best to try to find functional players on the outside.
What would have made it easier for them to go after more talent at cornerback, both now and in years past? Draft picks and money spent on positions they should be able to fill easily. Nobody doubts Kyle Shanahan's brilliance as an offensive mind, but the investments the franchise has made at the skill positions have been staggering.
The 49ers have repeatedly traded up in the draft for players who touch the football. The big trade was for Lance, but they also moved up at quarterback for C.J. Beathard (in the third round). At running back, they have traded away picks to target Joe Williams (fourth) and Trey Sermon (third), and at wide receiver, they've prioritized Brandon Aiyuk (first), Dante Pettis (second) and Trent Taylor (fifth).
On top of all that, they've used their own picks to acquire Samuel (in the second round) and Jalen Hurd (third) at wideout, plus George Kittle (fifth) at tight end and Elijah Mitchell (sixth) at running back. In free agency, they gave Jerick McKinnon a significant deal before also adding Tevin Coleman. They also sent a second-rounder to the Patriots for Garoppolo, who then signed a five-year extension.
How many of these moves have worked out? It's too early to say in some cases, but several of their best moves have come from simply staying put and drafting players. Their top running backs have been a waiver-wire pickup (Raheem Mostert), an undrafted free agent (Jeff Wilson) and Mitchell, the sixth-rounder. Kittle has morphed into a superstar, and Samuel has been great this season.
Aiyuk had a promising rookie season in 2020, but Shanahan has been underwhelmed with the second-year wideout and has given snaps to undrafted receiver Trent Sherfield and veteran journeyman Mohamed Sanu. Beathard lost his backup job to undrafted quarterback Nick Mullens and rotated in with Mullens a year ago. He's now in Jacksonville. The free-agent backs were disappointments, in part because of injuries. Williams never played an NFL down. Shanahan has barely trusted Sermon this season, giving a bigger role to Kyle Juszczyk before begrudgingly letting Sermon get a carry. With Williams returning, Sermon has taken two offensive snaps over the past two weeks. The 49ers have repeatedly made moves suggesting that they think they know best about talent at the skill positions, but many of those moves haven't delivered.
All of this then figures back to Garoppolo, whose $24.1 million base salary wasn't guaranteed to start the season. If the 49ers had cut Garoppolo or worked out a deal in March, they could have saved that money and used it to invest in secondary help while also having enough time to bring in a veteran quarterback. They have held on to Garoppolo because they don't think Lance is ready, but their decision to keep him through camp is what limited their options. Garoppolo didn't have to be their only alternative to Lance.
Garoppolo's deal became guaranteed in Week 1. History suggested that he would struggle to stay healthy while producing results that are inconsistent from week to week but competent on the whole when active. That's exactly the player he has been so far this season. We can be frustrated that the 49ers have dealt with injury issues, but it has been their own choices leading them to vulnerabilities.
Seattle Seahawks (2-5)
Preseason FPI playoff chances: 62.3%
Current FPI playoff chances: 17.2%
Difference: Minus-45.1%
It would be simple enough to point out that the Seahawks had Russell Wilson to start the season and now don't, and finish this section in 20 words, but Wilson's absence alone doesn't tell the whole story. The Seahawks were 2-2 and losing 16-7 at home to the Rams when Wilson suffered his finger injury. There were already signs of serious flaws in this team before he went down. The star quarterback's absence the past two games has only highlighted those problems.
The defense was Seattle's calling card for many years under Pete Carroll, but despite investing four first-round picks and two second-round picks on that side of the ball over the past four years, the returns have not been there. It ranks 21st in defensive DVOA, a performance that has been buoyed by its success in smaller samples on third down (where it has the sixth-best conversion rate in football) and in the red zone (where it has the fourth-best touchdown rate). We know that teams can't struggle outside of key situations and expect to play at a high level on third down and/or in the red zone for a long period of time, and the Seahawks are holding on only by that thread.
The guys they drafted with those picks were supposed to form a core around Bobby Wagner -- the one remaining stalwart from the Legion of Boom days -- but it hasn't happened yet. Malik McDowell never played for the team. L.J. Collier and Marquise Blair haven't ever looked like starters. Jordyn Brooks has only shown flashes of becoming an impact linebacker. Darrell Taylor was impressive to start 2021, but the second-year edge rusher suffered a scary neck injury against the Steelers in Week 6.
Jamal Adams is the other player in this mix, having cost the Seahawks two first-round picks in a trade last summer. They actually got off lucky when Adams blinked and agreed to a four-year, $70 million extension this summer given his leverage, but it's difficult to make the case that the safety has been the sort of transformative force they were hoping to acquire.
The former Jets standout has been unfairly blamed for some of the coverage lapses and mental mistakes made by other players on the roster, but Adams hasn't been a playmaker. After racking up 9.5 sacks and 14 knockdowns in his first season with the team, he doesn't have a sack or a quarterback hit in 2021. He has yet to create a takeaway this season. The numbers at Pro Football Reference suggest that he has allowed a passer rating of 130.9 in coverage on 23 targets. Put it this way: If Adams is making a serious impact with Seattle, it's not easy to find.
As a result, the Seahawks have been stuck relying on a mix of mid-tier free agents and replacement-level players to try and survive. Carlos Dunlap, Kerry Hyder and Benson Mayowa have combined for two sacks. They might have expected Tre Flowers and Ahkello Witherspoon to be their Week 1 corners, but neither player is on the roster. Flowers was benched after an ugly start to the season and released, while Witherspoon failed to make the team out of camp before being traded to the Steelers. Seattle paid the former 49ers corner $2.5 million for what eventually became a 2023 fifth-round pick. Sidney Jones got a two-week run as a full-time starter with predictable results. This team is likely looking at D.J. Reed and rookie fourth-round pick Tre Brown as its two best corners moving forward.
With their playoff hopes diminishing by the week, the Seahawks have to realistically think about whether they want to trade away players before the Nov. 2 trade deadline. They have one key piece in left tackle Duane Brown, who agitated for a new contract this summer and didn't get one. At 36, he isn't going to be part of the long-term solution, and he would be valuable in a market that doesn't have much tackle help, but trading him would leave Wilson under serious duress when the veteran passer does return. Quandre Diggs and Gerald Everett, who are also free agents after this season, could net the Seahawks much-needed draft capital after they made just three picks in April. The Jets have Seattle's first-rounder in 2022 because of the Adams trade.
It might make sense for the Seahawks to give up on what increasingly seems like a lost 2021, but doing so would also be at odds with the personalities of the two most important people in the organization, whose future is also coming into question. The partnership of Carroll and Wilson has produced a Super Bowl win and steady success over the past decade, but they have won one playoff game over the past five years, and it required the Eagles to lose their starting quarterback in the first quarter. Seattle went 12-4 last season and Wilson was still frustrated enough by what had happened to give the franchise a list of acceptable trade destinations. If the Seahawks finish below .500 for the first time in the Wilson era, what happens next?
Washington Football Team (2-5)
Preseason FPI playoff chances: 40.9%
Current FPI playoff chances: 2.5%
Difference: Minus-38.4%
The plan for Washington to take a step forward in 2021 was simple. Despite fielding the league's worst offense by DVOA in 2020, Ron Rivera's team was able to ride the league's third-ranked defense and a remarkably weak NFC East to a division title at 7-9. After adding Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel to its young core on offense, a more balanced team was supposed to net it consecutive playoff berths for the first time since 1992. Easy enough.
Well, just about everything in that plan hasn't gone to form. The offense has improved slightly, but at 23rd in the league in DVOA, it has disappointed again. Fitzpatrick suffered a hip injury in Week 1 and hasn't returned, while Samuel has been limited to 30 snaps by a groin issue. Logan Thomas is on injured reserve, Brandon Scherff has missed two games with a knee injury, and Antonio Gibson is playing through a hairline fracture in his shin. Ouch.
Teams can still post a winning record with a below-average offense and a great defense. The Saints, for example, are 4-2 with the league's 20th-ranked offense and third-ranked defense. Washington also has the league's second-best special teams by DVOA. If the defense was playing like it had in 2020, this team would be in good shape.
Washington ranks 28th in defensive DVOA this season, however. It was probably foolish to think that it would be the third-best defense again, since the Plexiglass principle tells us that teams that make an enormous single-year improvement often give some of those gains back the following year, and Jack Del Rio's defense had improved from 27th in 2019 to third a year ago. It would have been reasonable to project Washington to come in somewhere in the 10-to-15 range in 2021.
Instead, it has fallen all the way back past where it was before Rivera arrived. It's difficult to find something it is doing well. For a team with four first-rounders along the defensive line, the simplest expectation would have been that Washington would get after quarterbacks. Instead, despite blitzing at the seventh-highest rate, it ranks 23rd in pressure rate.
When Washington doesn't get pressure, its secondary has basically been drawing dead. It has allowed a QBR of 80.1, which ranks 30th. Only the Chiefs and Lions have been worse without pressure. William Jackson, brought in to replace Ronald Darby, hasn't looked like a No. 1 cornerback. Slot corner Kendall Fuller has been ruthlessly exploited by opposing quarterbacks, allowing a 27.4 EPA on 57 targets as the nearest defender in coverage. Landon Collins, signed on a six-year, $84 million contract, has struggled so much at safety that the team has moved him to linebacker. He has allowed a league-high five touchdowns in coverage so far.
The biggest problem for the WFT has simply been getting off the field. It has allowed teams to convert on 56.9% of their third downs. To put that in context, ESPN's database on third-down performance runs back through the 2000 campaign. If we take a look at every defense over that timeframe and how each performed through the first seven weeks of their respective seasons, the 2021 Washington defense is the second worst out of the 702 team seasons we've seen. Only the 2020 Titans (61%) were worse through seven weeks.
The good news for Washington is that this is going to come back to earth. Chase Young & Co. have the fourth-best defense in EPA per play on first and second down before dropping to last by a considerable margin on third down. There's no reason that would continue to keep up over the remainder of the season. If anything, it is built to win on third down given its pass-rushers. Don't be surprised if Washington corrects things and looks pretty good on defense in the second half of the season.
The bad news is that regression toward the mean might come too late. The Cowboys have gotten off to a 5-1 start, giving them a three-and-a-half-game lead over every other team in the NFC East after seven weeks. Washington's chances of winning the division have dropped to 0.6%. Everything about its 2021 season screams "lost year."
Given that reality, it would probably make sense for the team to trade away players at the deadline. There's no benefit to bringing back Fitzpatrick to start when the 39-year-old will be a free agent after the season, but he would be a valuable addition for a team in the playoff picture without a viable backup, such as the Bengals. Washington also hasn't come to terms on an extension with Scherff, who will become a free agent after the season. It's tough to see a team taking on the $11 million or so remaining on his franchise tag, but if Washington was willing to eat some money, it could get a meaningful draft pick for one of the league's best interior linemen.
Of course, WFT fans might also point out that the team started 2-7 a year ago and still managed to win a division title. Maybe it's wild for anybody to give up on their season in a division in which the Cowboys are one Dak Prescott injury from looking like a mess. (Fitzpatrick would be a great addition for the Cowboys if Washington would deal him in the East, which probably wouldn't happen.)
After last season, I don't think you can rule anything totally out in the East, but Washington is likely already thinking about what it might do to solve its perennial quarterback problem before the 2022 season begins.