Deshaun Watson trade status: Could the Texans deal the QB before the deadline? Everything we know, plus potential suitors

Deshaun Watson's situation is the puzzling and perplexing elephant in the NFL's 2021 room.

The 26-year-old quarterback is not injured. He is on a roster -- the Houston Texans', specifically. He shows up at the team facility every day, healthy enough to practice and play, but he does little of the former and none of the latter. He works out with Texans staff members but is not part of anything related to the weekly game plan. When the team practices, he's often in the weight room or conducting a workout plan of his own. He has been involved in some meetings but isn't a steady presence.

The Texans have left Watson inactive for each of their first five games, starting first Tyrod Taylor and then rookie Davis Mills instead, and plan to do the same for the foreseeable future.

Watson exists in NFL limbo for two reasons:

• He has told the Texans in no uncertain terms that he intends never to play for them again and would like to be traded.

• He faces 22 civil lawsuits by women accusing him of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior. And while he has denied wrongdoing, resolution of those lawsuits appears to be far off. Ten women have filed complaints with the Houston Police Department. Depositions began last month for the 22 plaintiffs, but he cannot be deposed before Feb. 22, 2022.

To be clear: Neither the NFL nor the Texans have suspended Watson, nor has he been placed on the commissioner's exempt list, which is a tool the league has used in the past to essentially suspend players while they're investigated under the personal conduct policy. The league is investigating Watson, but so far it has not acted on any discipline. He could, theoretically, play if he and the Texans wanted him to.

Despite interest from other teams, Watson has not been traded. He gives no interviews. His coach, David Culley, and general manager, Nick Caserio, give the same answers about his status being "week-to-week." The NFL offers no comment.

This is an unprecedented situation with no ultimate resolution in sight, and the significance of the allegations Watson is facing should not be ignored. For the sake of his alleged victims, we want to stress that we aren't glossing over the serious off-field issues at play here. This is a football story encased in a far more serious real-life story.

But league-wide chatter persists about which new uniform Watson will eventually wear. And with the league's Nov. 2 trade deadline creeping closer, the Texans' season looking as if it's headed nowhere and people inside the league still talking about a potential trade, it's worth a reset on this situation -- a look into what we do and don't know, what we do and don't expect to happen, why and when.

Jump to a section:
How Watson got here
Why he's still on the HOU roster
Could he be traded before Nov. 2?
What could happen in the offseason

How did we get here?

This all started in January, when Watson, unhappy with the direction of the franchise in the wake of the hire of Caserio, requested that the team trade him. Watson met via Zoom with the newly hired Culley in February and reiterated his stance that he would never again play for the Texans. Caserio, Culley and the Texans were adamant at the time, both publicly and privately, that they would not deal Watson, and interested teams were convinced that they meant it. Complicating matters was the four-year, $156 million extension Watson had just signed five months earlier.

But everything about the situation changed around March, as a series of lawsuits filed by Houston attorney Tony Buzbee alleged that Watson had committed several acts of sexual assault and inappropriate conduct with a number of different massage therapists over the course of his career. Watson and his attorney, Rusty Hardin, issued strong denials. "Any allegation that Deshaun forced a woman to commit a sexual act is completely false," Hardin said at the time. The number of lawsuits reached 22. The Texans called the allegations "troubling." The NFL launched an investigation.

Trade talks stalled, as teams either paused their pursuit of Watson or moved on with other options at the quarterback position. The Panthers, for example, who were believed to be one of the most eager and aggressive suitors, traded for the Jets' Sam Darnold.

As the lawsuits mounted, Caserio, who had once said Houston had "zero interest" in trading Watson, pivoted to a softer stance. "We'll try to make the best decision for the Houston Texans, whatever that entails," Caserio told Houston station Sports Radio 610.

Watson stayed away from the team facility throughout the offseason, but he reported to training camp on time. Part of the reason for reporting was to avoid a CBA-mandated $50,000 in daily fines, but sources also believed that reporting and putting the spotlight back on the situation might force the Texans to lower their demands and trade Watson as he wished they would. According to sources familiar with the Texans' plans and the trade talks, Houston continued to demand three first-round picks and more from interested teams, and no deal was struck. Watson attended training camp practices but did only individual work -- no team drills -- and now Houston is paying him his $10.54 million salary to be inactive every week.

There appears to be an understanding from all parties involved that Watson will not play for Houston this season, which of course deepens the intrigue ahead of the Nov. 2 trade deadline.

Why hasn't a trade happened yet?

Many reasons. First of all, the market for Watson has thinned for basic football roster-management reasons. It's one thing to acquire a new starting quarterback in March, when free agency is bubbling and the draft hasn't happened yet. That gives the acquiring team an entire offseason to build around him and get him up to speed with its program and offense. Once the season starts, however, teams are on to the business of trying to win games with what they have, not imagining what they might be able to get. Carolina started hot with Darnold. Denver picked Teddy Bridgewater over Drew Lock and got out of the gate 3-0. The Eagles went all-in around Jalen Hurts. The Dolphins talked up Tua Tagovailoa.

In fact, since 1990, there have been only 11 in-season trades involving quarterbacks, the last in 2019:

All of that said, it's not as if every team stopped calling the Texans. Right before the season began, there were people close to the situation who believed Miami would make a final push to get a Watson deal done. But, again, Caserio & Co. would not come off their high demands. Interested teams are hesitant to give up the trove of draft picks Caserio wants for a player who might not be available to them.

No one knows whether the NFL will suspend Watson under the personal conduct policy or place him on the commissioner's exempt list. Sources say the league's investigation has yet to reach a conclusion on potential discipline, so when teams call the league office for guidance on what to expect, they don't get clear answers. As with many personal conduct policy investigations involving open law enforcement cases, the NFL has run into trouble compelling witnesses to talk to them, and therefore cannot get a clear picture on what happened. This might mean the league feels it cannot act on discipline until the law enforcement investigation reaches its own conclusion, which could be months away.

In the past, the NFL has been unafraid to punish star players, with or without a full scope of legal punishment. In 2017, Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott served a six-game suspension from a domestic violence investigation despite no discipline by law. In July 2020, wide receiver Antonio Brown was suspended eight games for multiple violations of the league's personal conduct policy. Suspension lengths are not handled in a vacuum; if the NFL believes it has strong information against a player, it will act.

Of course, the NFL also hasn't yet had to do anything, because Watson isn't trying to force his way onto the field and the Texans are content to let him sit on the sidelines. The main purpose of the commissioner's exempt list is to remove a player from the public eye while the league decides what to do with him. Watson and the Texans have already removed him from the public eye.

Outside law enforcement does not adhere to the timetable of an NFL season. There has been no indication that any sort of settlement is imminent on any of the lawsuits against Watson, and sources say he is eager to defend himself in a grand-jury deposition scheduled for February.

Interested teams naturally want to know: If we trade for Watson, will he go to the exempt list immediately? If a suspension is inevitable, will it be this year or next year? And how long will it be? Teams can try to do recon work on this, but it's tough to get answers. Our understanding is that teams sometimes do call the NFL on fact-finding missions in instances like this, and the league will update them based on what they've made public, with no preferential treatment, according to a source. It would be naive to think that team owners can't have conversations about such matters with commissioner Roger Goodell directly, but for the most part a team is at the mercy of league findings, which can be scarce.

The upshot is this: The reason Watson hasn't been traded is that interested teams are hesitant to give up the high price Houston is seeking for a player they might not be able to play. If a team trades three first-round picks and two second-round picks for Watson and then he immediately goes on the commissioner's exempt list, that team is paying him to not play, doesn't know when he'll be allowed to play and is pretty much out of high draft picks for a while.

Teams have discussed with the Texans the possibility of placing conditions on the picks they'd send them based on Watson's availability, but so far Houston has not agreed to any such terms. That's where trade talks stall.

What are the chances he gets traded before the Nov. 2 deadline?

It doesn't sound likely at this point.

From what we're hearing, the Dolphins are the most likely landing spot for Watson. Sources have said Watson, who has a no-trade clause in his contract and can therefore dictate his destination, would like to play in Miami and that the Dolphins have expressed interest in acquiring him. There are people close to this situation who believe Watson would be in Miami already if the lawsuits had never surfaced. Dolphins coach Brian Flores has a relationship with Caserio from the time they spent together in New England, and that could be a factor that helps facilitate a deal.

Tagovailoa, Miami's No. 5 overall pick in last year's draft, has missed the past three games with an injury, but he could return to Miami's lineup for Sunday's matchup against Jacksonville in London. That would give him another couple of weeks before the trade deadline to try to convince Dolphins brass that they don't need Watson. The Dolphins' 1-4 start might also have a cooling effect on their interest; they might be more than a quarterback away from truly contending.

The Broncos, who have playmakers all over the field, are a team we've long heard has intrigued Watson. If there's a list of non-Miami destinations that we can call wild-card possibilities, Denver is high on it. The Broncos were intrigued by Aaron Rodgers' potential availability in the offseason, but the Packers never made Rodgers available, and Denver opened the season apparently happy with Bridgewater -- for this year, at least.

The 49ers also intrigued Watson early in the process, but they essentially took themselves out of the running with their big trade up in April's draft to take Trey Lance.

Buzz persisted throughout the preseason about the Eagles' interest in Watson. They are likely to have three first-round picks in the 2022 NFL draft -- their own pick, the Dolphins' original pick and, if Carson Wentz plays at least 75% of Indianapolis' offensive snaps, the Colts' pick. The ESPN Football Power Index currently projects the Eagles to have picks 7, 9 and 10 in Round 1.

No team is better equipped to make a trade for Watson than the Eagles, but we've yet to find a credible source who believes he wants to play in Philadelphia. That doesn't mean he wouldn't -- an anywhere-but-Houston-plan is the last resort -- but the Eagles haven't appeared to be in the driver's seat, and as a result their interest seemed to cool as the season got underway.

Other in-season possibilities are purely speculative, but teams with high hopes and unsettled or upended quarterback situations include the Steelers, Seahawks, Saints and Washington.

A team acquiring Watson today would have to have about $7 million in 2021 cap space to take on the remainder of his salary for this season. A team acquiring him at the Nov. 2 deadline would need about $5.86 million in 2021 cap space. This was always the bargain year for Watson, as the contract extension he signed with Houston in 2020 called for a relatively low base salary of $10.54 million this year. That figure jumps to a fully guaranteed $35 million in 2022, and as of March 2022 his $20 million 2023 salary and $17 million 2023 roster bonus are fully guaranteed. So a team would need $35 million in 2022 cap space and $37 million in 2023 cap space to fit him in. The uncertainty around Watson's situation understandably has teams hesitant to take on this kind of commitment without knowing more.

It is possible -- and is likely Watson's hope -- that the Texans reduce their demands in the next couple of weeks and just decide to take whatever the best offer is and move on with their rebuild. They have offered no indication that they plan to do this, but until the deadline comes and goes, it cannot be ruled out.

It is also worth pointing out, in case we haven't stressed this point clearly enough already, that the allegations Watson is facing are extremely serious and disturbing. He has maintained his innocence, but if he is found to be guilty of what he's being accused of, there are legitimate reasons for teams to think twice about making him the face of their franchise or welcoming him into their locker room.

We're used to a talent-trumps-all dynamic in the NFL, where players such as Ben Roethlisberger, Jameis Winston, Adrian Peterson, Brown and many others have returned from suspensions for serious off-field misconduct and resumed their careers. Whenever Watson's off-field legal issues are resolved, he could do the same. That doesn't mean he will for sure, however, and even if he does, it's fair to believe that teams will view him in a less positive light than they used to. All of this affects the likelihood of a trade.

What are the chances something happens in the offseason?

Much better. Let's say the situation remains unchanged through the Super Bowl. Watson doesn't get traded by the deadline, the Texans leave him inactive for all 17 games (assuming that 1-4 Houston doesn't recover and make a playoff run) and he's still on the roster come March, when the 2022 league year opens. What happens then?

It's unlikely that Watson's stance vis-a-vis the Texans will have changed by then, which means he'll still want a trade. The passage of time, if nothing else, makes it more likely that there will be some clarity on the off-field legal issues, what sorts of consequences he faces in court and what the league decides to do about suspending or not suspending him. As we have discussed, any clarity on Watson's future availability would improve his chances of being dealt.

Assuming that clarity exists -- and that the resolution of the lawsuits doesn't render Watson completely unavailable or undesirable from an NFL standpoint -- it's also likely that the market for his services will be more robust next spring than it is now. There are a number of teams that aren't currently looking for a quarterback but might be in March.

The Steelers could be seeking a Roethlisberger replacement. The Packers could be searching for an Aaron Rodgers replacement, if 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love still isn't ready. Should Russell Wilson's discontent with the Seattle front office resurface next offseason, the Seahawks could be looking. The jury might still be out on Daniel Jones with the Giants, who have two first-round picks in the 2022 draft. Whoever is running the Raiders could decide Derek Carr isn't their cup of tea. The Eagles remain undecided on Hurts as the long-term answer. Washington, Denver and Miami all appear likely to still be looking. Detroit, Carolina and New Orleans could be, too.

The anticipation of a broader market to come could persuade the Texans to wait this out. As we've mentioned, the financial cost of keeping Watson on the roster the rest of the season is relatively minimal. The $27 million signing bonus they gave him in the summer of 2020 is a sunk cost, the cap hit is what it is and the team appears to have made its peace with keeping him on its roster even if he doesn't play. The Texans don't have to do anything by Nov. 2, and it might be better business to wait until the offseason to make a move.