Predicting NFL Week 6 upset picks, fantasy football sleepers and flops, plus buzz and notes around the league

We're heading into Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season, and it has been a busy week around the league. We asked ESPN insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for some insight on the biggest news and for their picks on games and players to watch.

How could the Las Vegas Raiders replace Jon Gruden in 2022? Can the Seattle Seahawks still be playoff contenders after losing Russell Wilson for at least a month? Are the Jacksonville Jaguars going to stick with Urban Meyer through the season?

Graziano and Fowler also share their upset picks for Week 6, including a matchup between the Cleveland Browns and Arizona Cardinals. And for fantasy managers looking to make all the right moves, they name must-start sleepers and point out potential fantasy flops of the week (This section might include Tom Brady). They get into all of it, emptying their notebooks with everything they've heard this week, including an update on Baker Mayfield's contract talks, when to expect Baltimore Ravens rookie Rashod Bateman back and what Saquon Barkley's injury means for the New York Giants' future.

Let's get started with the upset picks of the week, but you can also jump to other big questions for Week 6.

Jump to:
Upsets | Seahawks' outlook
Gruden's replacement | Meyer's future
Fantasy flops | Underrated gems
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

Jon Gruden is out as Raiders coach. Who should be on Las Vegas' list of potential replacements?

Graziano: Eric Bieniemy, Brian Daboll, Todd Bowles -- the usual suspects. The Raiders will have more time than any other team to figure out which head-coaching candidates they should pursue and why. The "why" is the critical (and often overlooked) part of the process. Would they take a look at Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett? And if they did, would that portend a pursuit of Aaron Rodgers? Would they want someone who has been a head coach before -- such as Bowles, Jim Caldwell or Marvin Lewis -- to establish a new culture after Gruden had so much influence there? Would they look to the college ranks for a program-builder like Iowa State's Matt Campbell, who drew a long look from the Lions last year?

It is way too soon to know what team owner Mark Davis has in mind, especially because the only coach he really ever wanted is the guy who just left.

Fowler: Yep, plenty of viable options for Davis. If we're going youth and offensive flavor, Kellen Moore and Joe Brady should be in the mix. Candidates will be intrigued by an offense with Derek Carr, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, Henry Ruggs III, Bryan Edwards and Foster Moreau. There's real firepower on the team, and the offense could use some new ideas. Bieniemy has endured the exhausting interview mill for three straight years and hasn't gotten his chance. I do like his potential fit with the Raiders, a franchise that seems to thrive off being overlooked. Plus, it has always championed diversity.

Graziano: They play the Chiefs twice a year, so if anyone has had an opportunity to see Bieniemy up close and get a sense of what he's about, it's them. I just think this is the ultimate square-one scenario, because there's no way Davis was thinking about having a coaching search. And really, it's more than that, because Gruden had all the power in that organization. Mike Mayock is still the general manager, but he was hand-picked by Gruden, so where does that leave him? Will Davis want to find a coach/GM combo and bring them in together? Will he look for another coach who wants to be the final decision-maker? Tuesday was the first day in years that Davis has even thought about this. There's no way to forecast what he has in mind.

Fowler: Getting a GM and coach to work in unison is typically the best route, so if Davis keeps Mayock beyond 2021, Mayock should have input. Either way, the Raiders must check the high-character box with the hire after what transpired this week. There's really no wiggle room there.

What's your top upset pick for Week 6?

Fowler: Cardinals (+3) over Browns. Time to ride the hot hand. The Cardinals are 5-0 and incredibly hard to stop. Kyler Murray is a legitimate MVP candidate, and the defense has allowed 16.3 points per game over the past three weeks. Maybe Arizona will go cold at some point soon, but it isn't showing signs of slowing down. The Browns are coming off an emotional loss in Los Angeles and are beaten up on defense and along the offensive line.

Graziano: Yeah, I'm with you there. I think the Browns will be fine in the end, but I was a little shocked by how bad their defense was Sunday.

On a related note, give me the Chargers (+3) over the Ravens. I am 100% a believer in Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, and it's incredible that they're 4-1 given all of their health issues. But at some point, one of these squeakers won't break their way. The Chargers are as hot as anyone, and the Ravens are on a short week. I think they hiccup here.

Fowler: Both teams have definitely learned how to win tight games, so that one could go either way. I'll take Chargers in a close one. I keep betting against them, and they keep proving me wrong. Also, I like the Raiders (+3) over Broncos. What happened over the past week could galvanize Las Vegas.

Are the Seahawks done as playoff contenders with Russell Wilson sidelined?

Graziano: No way, man. Wilson's not done for the season, just the next four to eight weeks. That's brutal, don't get me wrong, but look: Seattle's next three games are against the Steelers, Saints and Jaguars. All winnable with basically any quarterback. (And by the way, Geno Smith looked really good!) And then yeah, the Seahawks have the Packers and Cardinals back-to-back, which is going to be tough, but the latter part of their schedule includes Washington, the Texans, the Bears and the Lions -- likely all when Wilson is back.

The Seahawks have a lot of problems, but they were able to right the ship on defense after a rough start last season, and Pete Carroll's track record makes it hard to rule out the possibility they do it again. Tough road, for sure, but I can't call them "done."

Fowler: Love the optimism, Dan. And I'm not sure "done" is the right word. This is a franchise with a great deal of pride and culture, which is why I'll compare them to the Steelers when Big Ben went down in 2019 -- thinking they will hover around .500, possibly sneaking into an expanded playoff format. But this won't exactly be pretty.

We've seen the Geno Smith movie before. Over eight-plus seasons, he has been a sub-60% passer with more interceptions (37) than touchdown passes (30). He hadn't played meaningful snaps since 2017. He deserves credit for slinging it the other night, and the Seahawks are hoping for a Frank-Reich-with-the-Bills vibe. Maybe, with a better team, we will see a rejuvenated Smith. But this team had holes to begin with.

Graziano: Yeah, that's the thing, right? They were in danger of sliding out of contention in that division anyway, with Wilson. My optimism is really rooted in my faith in the strength of the Seahawks organization. Like, I believe it's possible that Smith has improved because he has been working in that program as a backup, and he could play better than he did in the past. I believe there are players on the roster who can and will play better as the year goes along, because we've seen it from them. I believe the front office won't be shy about signing or trading for a guy who can help them, because they always do it. Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but Seattle is one of those teams I generally have trouble doubting.

Fowler: Take the secondary out of it and the overall roster might be better than the 12-win team from a year ago. Certainly the offense has more personnel. And maybe a run-heavy attack with Smith can help the Seahawks sustain drives (their 54.2 plays per game ranks last in the NFL). But Wilson could get you two or three touchdowns in a matter of minutes. Seattle will miss that explosion.

Could Urban Meyer and the 0-5 Jaguars part ways during the season?

Fowler: I'll say this: There is at least a mild buzz in the NFL coaching community that something could go down. Some people wondered whether a loss to the Titans on Sunday was going to force him to resign. But I do think Meyer entered the NFL knowing this would be a process. He's no dummy -- Jacksonville was 1-15 last season. Expecting a 4-1 start would have been silly. Possible? Yes. Anything is possible. If the Jaguars are 0-10, I could see Meyer leaning into retirement for good ... or at least 12 months, right, Dan?

Graziano: Yeah, I go back and forth on this. Someone on the outside predicted to me the other day that Meyer could be fired after this weekend's game in London if they lose. But unless there are new revelations about his off-field behavior -- or we find out he lied to team ownership about it -- I don't see owner Shad Khan admitting this big of a mistake so soon. I don't know who on the staff they'd promote to interim coach, either.

So I'm leaning toward saying Meyer lasts the season, though you obviously can't rule out the possibility of something new happening that changes that. It's pretty obvious he shouldn't have been hired in the first place, but the offseason seems like the natural time to reset.

Fowler: All of this puts Jacksonville in a precarious spot. The team just gave this guy a massive deal, likely somewhere in the $70 million range if it's a seven-year deal. We don't know all the clauses in that contract, but divorcing from Meyer might be costly for the franchise unless he resigns. Khan has a long-standing relationship with Meyer and sought him out early in the process. He wants this to work. Perhaps he stays patient. But what could Jacksonville do to salvage this?

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 6?

Graziano: Taylor Heinicke, QB, Washington (vs. KC). The Chiefs are allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Washington is allowing the second most, which means this could be a shootout that requires the gunslinging Heinicke to put up big numbers just to keep his team in it. You have to live with the risk of disaster from play to play, but Heinicke can make plays with his legs and his arm. He should be able to get you through a week if you lost Russell Wilson, or if you've been relying on one of the quarterbacks on a bye this week. (Which you probably haven't, but I don't know what kind of leagues you guys play in.)

Fowler: Live with Disaster: The Taylor Heinicke Story. Heinicke gives zero ... well, yeah. He doesn't care. Fearless. Gotta respect it. Which is why he can put up points.

My pick: Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers (at PHI). Tampa's backfield is unpredictable, but Fournette leads the way with 75 touches, and the Eagles have given up a gazillion yards on the ground (710, actually). Fournette has only one touchdown, and it feels like he is due. Tom Brady is feeding touchdowns to all of his receivers, so wealth should be spread.

Graziano: Fournette is working his way toward regular-fantasy-starter status, if it's possible for any back to earn that kind of trust while playing for Bruce Arians. I think Ronald Jones gets heard from again before it's all said and done, and Gio Bernard is there to take up the pass-catching role, but as for this week, I agree with you. Fournette looks like the back they want to rely on in Tampa, and the Philly defense can be had.

Fowler: A few other sleepers I like: Bengals RB Samaje Perine, Saints WR Marquez Callaway, Bears RB Khalil Herbert and Chiefs WR Josh Gordon. Yes, that Josh Gordon. The Chiefs could use one more receiving option to loosen up things for Tyreek Hill, who had trouble breaking free against Buffalo. Wouldn't be shocked if Gordon got an extended look.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop for Week 6?

Fowler: David Njoku, TE, Browns (vs. ARI). Ah, the fantasy flop. My favorite category. I picked Cordarrelle Patterson a few weeks ago, and he is putting up Barry Sanders numbers. Oh, well. I'm going Njoku here because the Browns probably want to get Austin Hooper going (or Odell Beckham Jr., for that matter). And the Cardinals have been solid against tight ends, giving up 3.2 catches for 24.4 yards per game. But I gotta say, not sure what to make of the Browns' passing game week to week.

Graziano: Tom Brady, QB, Buccaneers (at PHI). What? Didn't you see Brady throw five touchdown passes Sunday? What the heck is wrong with you, Graziano? He's the GOAT! Sure, but he also has the thumb on his throwing hand wrapped, and a game Thursday night against an Eagles team that has done a pretty good job limiting fantasy production from quarterbacks. To your point earlier, Jeremy, I do think the Eagles are so easy to run on that you could see the Bucs lean heavily in that direction this week, especially if Brady's hand isn't all the way healthy. A bold pick, I know, but I'm a bold kind of guy.

Fowler: A leading MVP candidate as a fantasy flop is indeed a bold move, Cotton. No doubt Brady will use this slight as fuel to remind everyone he was a sixth-round pick that everyone counted out! But it's not like Brady can't get thrown off his game on occasion (see: New England, Week 4).

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• Contract talks between the Browns and Baker Mayfield remain stalled. There has been no movement through the first five weeks of the season, and both sides are comfortable letting this year play out. I'm told they're not exactly dead, however. Talks could pick up at any point. The Browns believe Mayfield, a 2023 free agent, could be the long-term answer at quarterback. But it also seems clear the front office wants to see a bit more, considering that the QB market has normalized $40 million-per-year payouts. With a decision this big, it's really up to team owner Jimmy Haslam on what happens next. If he greenlights a deal, there could be some action.

• JuJu Smith-Schuster's career outlook is becoming hard to project due to several injuries. He's expected to miss the season with shoulder surgery looming, and sources said he has played through past knee injuries that required constant treatment and rehab. A future surgery to correct the knee is not off the table. Smith-Schuster signed a one-year deal with Pittsburgh as a springboard to 2022 free agency. Maybe big money still awaits him, but he will need to show he can stay healthy.

• A Ravens offense that posted 528 yards on Monday Night Football is getting more firepower. Rookie first-round pick Rashod Bateman is eyeing a Week 6 return to the lineup, per sources. The wideout underwent core-muscle surgery before the season. Baltimore considered playing him in Week 5 on a pitch count but opted to give him one more week. A true outside receiver, Bateman gives Baltimore a viable option opposite Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins.

• The Chiefs are examining potential defensive improvements after another sluggish outing in Week 5. They know they need more speed on the field, and more edge-rush production (seven sacks as a team is a league low). Some players are getting frustrated with the lack of plays available either within the scheme or due to lack of cohesion. Personnel changes wouldn't exactly shock. And if they go with more speed, linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay could see more time together. After safety Daniel Sorensen's tough game, Juan Thornhill could regain footing in the lineup. The team also knows staying patient on offense will help the defense. Patrick Mahomes will have to live with some methodical 12-play drives as defenses double-team Travis Kelce and stay deep on Tyreek Hill's running lanes.

• Bears quarterback Justin Fields is recovering well from a hyperextended knee he suffered last week in Las Vegas. A source said Fields' grasp and command of the offense is "improving every day," and his poise over the past two games has impressed the coaches. The Bears originally believed Fields needed more time to develop while Andy Dalton handled the workload in 2021. But how Fields overcame an ugly Week 3 loss in Cleveland with two strong games has expedited that curve.

Graziano

• The Giants have a Saquon Barkley problem. And I'm not just talking about Barkley's latest injury, which doesn't sound like a long-term issue but is likely to cost him at least a game or a handful of them. Barkley played all 16 games in his 2018 rookie season, but he missed three in 2019, 14 in 2020 and is not going to play a full season in 2021, either. The Giants picked up his fifth-year option for $7.217 million, so he is under contract for 2022 for that much. But this offseason was the one in which they were going to at least discuss extending him beyond that. Can they commit to a guy who, sorry to say, hasn't been able to stay on the field consistently? Can they forecast the long-term effects of his injuries and factor that into the price? And who's going to be making the decision on that, if they make a change at general manager? (Not saying for sure that they will, but it's at least possible, right?) The Giants drafted Barkley No. 2 overall in 2018 when they could have picked Josh Allen there and Nick Chubb in the second round. They traded Odell Beckham Jr. a year later with the idea that they'd build the team and offense around Barkley. It has not worked out, and the Giants have a decision to make about his future.

• After talking to Packers coach Matt LaFleur late last week, I was not surprised to see second-year running back AJ Dillon catch four passes for 49 yards and a touchdown in Sunday's victory over Cincinnati. LaFleur lit up when our conversation turned to Dillon. "I am fired up about him," he said. "That's a guy we just have to keep finding ways to incorporate." Aaron Jones is still the RB1, but Dillon was a second-round pick for a reason, and the Packers are going to find ways to involve him in the offense. This wasn't some blowout win when they pounded the rock all in the second half and both backs piled up numbers. This was a close game the whole way, and they had a plan that included Dillon. If you have him on your bench in fantasy, think twice before cutting him or just trading him to the team that has Jones on it for peanuts. He has value as it is, and it would skyrocket if Jones had to miss time for any reason.

• The Steelers will miss JuJu Smith-Schuster while he is out with his shoulder injury, but no team does better at finding and developing young receiver talent than Pittsburgh. It was prepared to let Smith-Schuster leave in free agency last offseason -- before he failed to find the market he imagined and went back to them for their number -- and it has options on the roster to fill in for him. Many are assuming James Washington could be next up, but the name I'm hearing from people familiar with their plans is Ray-Ray McCloud, a 2018 sixth-round pick (by Buffalo) who has mainly been a return man in his time with the Steelers. McCloud is speedy and a natural fit in the slot, which is where the Steelers prefer to use Smith-Schuster. He might get the first crack at the role.

• This is Week 6, which means next week is potentially significant for players who started the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list. Being put on PUP means a player has to miss at least the first six weeks of the season, which means those players would be first eligible to rejoin their teams for practice and maybe even games next week. Not saying all of these players will be back in Week 7, but a partial list of noteworthy names who could be back for Week 7 include: Packers OT David Bakhtiari, Saints WR Michael Thomas, Panthers CB Stephon Gilmore, Chiefs OG Kyle Long, Bears RB Tarik Cohen and 49ers RB Jeff Wilson Jr.