It is not an overstatement to say that the Bills waited nine months for Sunday night's game.
When the Bills showed up in Kansas City for the AFC Championship Game in January, they were pretty sure they were going to win it. Sure, they'd lost a home game to the Chiefs in Week 6, but since that time they'd gone 11-1 with the only loss coming on a ludicrous DeAndre Hopkins Hail Mary catch in triple coverage as time expired in Arizona in Week 10. They were white-hot, having just stifled Lamar Jackson's Ravens the week before, and they felt they were ready to knock out the champs and represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
They did not. The Chiefs beat the Bills 38-24 that day, and Buffalo spent an entire offseason trying to figure out why it had played so badly in the biggest game of the season.
So yeah, the Bills had the Week 5 game in Kansas City circled on their calendar. And Sunday night, they absolutely played like it.
Nothing could stop Josh Allen and the Bills. Not the Chiefs' (admittedly banged-up) defense. Not the famously raucous Arrowhead Stadium crowd. Not the 77-minute halftime that resulted from a lightning delay. The Bills scored on four of their first five possessions. They intercepted Patrick Mahomes twice and won the turnover battle 4-0. They played with complete confidence, as if they went in there knowing they were the better team and weren't surprised by the result.
Honestly, they earned their way into the lead of the Week 5 overreactions column.
We already did "The Bills are the best team in the AFC" two weeks ago in this space, so it would feel redundant to do it again. Right now, they have a pretty solid claim on that title. Yes, the Chargers have the same 4-1 record and a win over the Chiefs. And yes, the Ravens have a win against Kansas City, too, and could improve to 4-1 with a Monday night victory. But Buffalo looked like the best team in the AFC for much of last season and, perplexing Week 1 loss to the Steelers notwithstanding, have picked up right where they left off.
No, this week's lead overreaction has more to do with how many times -- and in what context -- the Chiefs showed up in the previous paragraph.
The Chiefs are in real trouble
Sunday night's loss dropped the Chiefs to 2-3, with all three losses coming against hungry AFC contenders who'd absolutely love to hold playoff tiebreaker advantages over the two-time defending conference champs come playoff time. They are the only team in the AFC West that is under .500, and they're two full games behind the first-place Chargers, who fought off a tough Cleveland team Sunday.
Honestly, if the Browns hadn't fumbled away the Week 1 game, Kansas City would be 1-4. The Chiefs' three losses in five games are more than they had in 16 regular-season games last season and only one fewer than they had in each of the two regular seasons before that. It is completely fair to say the Chiefs do not look like themselves.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. I'm not going to sit here and say they don't need to fix some stuff. They do. The defense has been a sieve. Mahomes is turning the ball over way too much. They haven't developed a reliable second wide receiver behind Tyreek Hill, and when opposing defenses focus on taking away Hill, the mighty Chiefs offense can look a little lost. But to be fair, the defense has not been whole all year. Frank Clark has missed games. Tyrann Mathieu missed a game. Chris Jones and Charvarius Ward missed Sunday night's game.
Steve Spagnuolo's Kansas City defenses have had their tough stretches, but they've also shown the ability to stand up and play tough in the biggest moments. If they can get healthy, there's little reason to think they won't be able to do that when it counts in December, January and February.
Hill is still the league's most frightening and explosive wide receiver. Travis Kelce is still the league's most uncoverable tight end. Andy Reid is still the OG offensive playcalling mastermind. Tom Brady remains the only quarterback who has defeated the Chiefs in the last three postseasons. Do they look like the team we're used to seeing? No. But they still scare you. You still see enough flashes of that Mahomes championship brilliance to make you think twice about betting against them.
Sure, Buffalo is better right now. Sure, the result of Sunday's game could mean an AFC Championship Game rematch in Buffalo instead of Kansas City. But teams like the Chiefs don't just roll over and fade away. They will be a factor all season. And until someone (besides Brady) knocks them out in January, you'd better believe that neither the Bills nor any of the other contenders in a very strong-looking AFC will be overlooking them. There is a very, very long way to go.
Forget Bills-Chiefs: Browns-Chargers was Sunday's real AFC championship preview
Well, we can only hope, can't we? Because this one was absolutely wild. The Browns held a 27-21 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Good, interesting, reasonable game between two AFC upstarts that have big dreams. But something happened during the break between the third and fourth quarters; there were 41 points scored in the final 15 minutes.
The Chargers scored the final six of them, though they didn't want to because they were trying to run out the clock and not leave the Browns any time. Browns defenders actually dragged Austin Ekeler into the end zone for the touchdown so they could get another shot at scoring themselves. They did get a chance, but Baker Mayfield's fourth-down Hail Mary did not connect. Chargers win 47-42. Give me more of this game.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Much as I'd love to see this game again, I still feel like the teams that played in the Sunday night game are the class of the conference. Could I see the Browns or Chargers being good enough to mess it up for one or both of them? Sure. Are both offenses absolute infernos that will make it tough for any team to stop in the postseason? I believe so. But I thought the Browns would win this game because I believed their defense was playing at a high level. In this game, it is fair to say, it did not. Neither did the Chargers' defense.
This was a game only an offensive coordinator could love. Chargers coach Brandon Staley, a defensive coach by trade, had to be sick to his stomach watching that fourth quarter, even though it ultimately broke his way.
Basically, there are way too many good teams in the AFC for us to predict anything at this point. But given the competition in the AFC North and the AFC West, it's going to be tough the rest of the way for both of these teams. If either can get the top seed in the conference, that's going to be a big accomplishment.
Russell Wilson will not play for the Seahawks in 2022
This one stretches back to the Thursday night game, a Seahawks loss to the Rams that was far more noteworthy for an injury to Seattle's ironman quarterback. Wilson injured the middle finger on his throwing hand, had surgery Friday and will miss a big chunk of time while recovering. From what we know, he's out at least four weeks and possibly as many as eight.
Sunday's game in Pittsburgh will be the first Wilson has missed since the Seahawks drafted him in the third round in 2012 and made him their starter as a rookie. This is a massive development for the 2-3 Seahawks and their playoff hopes.
Backup Geno Smith played well in relief Thursday and could conceivably keep the Seahawks afloat while Wilson is out, but the Seahawks haven't known life without Wilson for a decade. With the Cardinals and Rams way out in front in the NFC West, it would be a minor miracle if Seattle did not fall hopelessly behind while Wilson is out.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Think back to the start of the 2021 offseason, when we learned that Wilson was dissatisfied with the way things were going in Seattle and his agent gave ESPN's Adam Schefter a list of four teams to which he'd accept a trade. Yes, the Seahawks and Wilson smoothed things over. No, that wasn't just lip service. Sources have said Wilson is happy with the hiring of offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and has been all-in on this Seahawks season.
All of that said, however, the possibility remains -- especially now that Wilson is hurt -- that this Seattle season ends up being disappointing. After it ends, he will have just two years left on his contract with none of the money guaranteed. Trading him next offseason would cost the Seahawks $26 million in dead money on their 2022 salary cap. This used to be a lot of dead money, but it's not in the post-Carson Wentz era. If the season really goes off the rails, and if Seattle can find a way -- via draft or trade or free agency -- to figure out a quarterback solution other than Wilson, he absolutely could be on the trade market next spring.
There's a lot of season left, and we have no idea how it will go. But just because the team and Wilson have put their differences on hold for the good of everyone involved doesn't mean the issues can't and won't resurface. This is a situation worth watching, for sure.
The Jaguars will go 0-17
Urban Meyer's terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad week culminated with a typical Jaguars dud. They lost 37-19 to the Titans in a game so sleepy and unremarkable you'd be forgiven for thinking it was the matchup in London. Derrick Henry ran all over the Jaguars to the tune of 130 yards and three touchdowns. They missed their customary handful of kicks. They never led. They never felt like a real threat to win the game.
The Jaguars have now lost 20 games in a row since their Week 1 victory in 2020, putting them six short of the NFL record. Their next six games are against the Dolphins, Seahawks, Bills, Colts, 49ers and Falcons. Not exactly a murderers' row (other than the Buffalo game, which is probably going to have to be rated TV-MA), but it's hard to imagine them favored in any one of them. Add in the fact that their coach doesn't seem to care, and we're looking ahead to a 12-game wasteland of a remaining schedule for Jacksonville.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Just because things happen in this league, right? Next week's game is against the Dolphins in London, and weird stuff goes on in those games. There's a two-game stretch in late December in which they play the Texans and the Jets, either of whom is beatable even though the Jags look like the win on their schedules, too.
Players don't tank. They work their tails off during the week to get ready to play these games and they put their hearts and souls into it. At some point, the law of averages will deliver a day on which the Jags play all right and the opponent plays lousy and the ball bounces funny and they win. (Remember: The 0-13 Jets won at the Rams last season.)
I don't think it's going to happen much, but to predict 12 more losses from this far out feels like too much -- even if the only drama we can expect to find in this Jaguars season is whether Meyer will finish it.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals lost, but they're legitimate playoff contenders
It was an agonizing loss to Green Bay for the Bengals, whose rookie kicker missed a potential game winner with 26 seconds left in regulation and another kick that would have won the game in overtime. The Packers tried to give them the game, too, as their veteran kicker missed three potential game winners before finally making one.
Perhaps even worse, Joe Burrow, the Bengals' sensational second-year quarterback, briefly left the game after landing on his head at the end of a run and then after the game was taken to a local hospital to be checked out for a throat contusion.
So a lot of this is based on the hope that Burrow can protect himself enough long term to continue keeping Cincinnati in big games. "We don't need a moral victory to convince us we're capable of beating great teams in this league," Bengals coach Zac Taylor said after Sunday's 25-22 loss. "We just want to win them."
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Bengals are 3-2. They lost to the Bears because Burrow weirdly threw three interceptions in a row at a key point in the game. They lost to the Packers because their kicker missed two field goals by the slimmest of margins. They're for real. Their offense is stacked with playmakers, and their line is outplaying its reputation.
I talked to Packers coach Matt LaFleur late last week, and it sounded like he was having nightmares after watching tape of Bengals edge rushers Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. The Bengals are in what appears to be a very tough division, but their remaining nondivision road schedule includes the Lions, Jets, Raiders and Broncos. They just went toe-to-toe with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. They can surely pile up wins against the teams left on their schedule.
Assuming Burrow is OK -- and stays that way -- they're not going to be a pushover.