With the 256 regular-season games of the 2020 NFL season in the books, this seemed like a good day to file my awards ballot. I'll pick my top three candidates for the seven most prominent awards The Associated Press hands out each year. While I'm not an official voter, that freedom can be a positive. I don't think I'll be making the same picks we see from the electorate. I'll be noting in some cases where I think a different candidate might win. Unsurprisingly, I'll be relying more on data than my gut intuition.
One of those awards where my thoughts aren't in line is the first award I'll hand out, for Coach of the Year. The voters typically award coaches who exceed expectations with previously struggling teams, which has led to coaches like Matt Nagy and Jason Garrett winning the award in recent years. With all due respect to the excellent work done by candidates such as Cleveland's Kevin Stefanski and Miami's Brian Flores, I'm going in a different direction with my picks.
Jump to an award:
MVP | Comeback Player | Coach
Defensive Player | Offensive Player
Defensive Rookie | Offensive Rookie
Coach of the Year
3. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
If this were a multiyear award and we were handing out credit for the best work over the past four seasons, McDermott would be the easy winner. If we were handing out Executive of the Year, general manager Brandon Beane might be the favorite. Coordinator of the Year probably would be Brian Daboll. Quarterback Josh Allen would be right alongside Broncos tackle Garett Bolles as the league's most improved player. With this award focused on the head coach and strictly on 2020 performance, McDermott comes up just short.
It's by only the tiniest of margins; heck, Andy Reid went 14-2 and isn't even in the top three. McDermott has done incredible work, and it's impossible to ignore how many players come to Buffalo and either outplay their draft position or perform better than they did in their prior NFL stop(s). The only small knock I have is that McDermott helps oversee the defense alongside Leslie Frazier, and while Buffalo's D improved over the course of the season, it ranked 13th in DVOA heading into Week 17, down from where it ranked in 2018 and 2019. If this were a slightly different award, McDermott would win.
2. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
In terms of degree of difficulty, though, I really wanted to put Tomlin No. 1. The 48-year-old had to coax this team through a season in which it basically had no bye week and was stuck waiting for its opponents to come out of quarantine. I give the former defensive coach some credit for helping to mold the latest in a string of dominant Steelers defenses, one that lost starters like Javon Hargrave and Devin Bush and still managed to prop up a wildly inconsistent offense for most of the season.
Given that they lost four out of their last five games and played the league's second-easiest schedule, Tomlin falls just short on this award. By the way: If the league had gone to its current 14-team playoff format at the beginning of Tomlin's career, this would be his 14th consecutive playoff appearance. Steelers fans aren't always happy with Tomlin, but he's an incredible coach.
1. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
LaFleur deserves direct credit for helping to unlock an MVP-caliber season from Aaron Rodgers, a guy who was thought to be on the downswing and too prickly to coach over his last few years with Mike McCarthy. Another organization might have fallen apart after the Jordan Love draft pick and the summer of no receivers. LaFleur and Rodgers had this offense cooking, even while Davante Adams was out injured in September.
The AP didn't give LaFleur the award last year after he posted a 13-3 mark; a second consecutive 13-3 season might change its mind. I'm not considering what LaFleur did in 2019 as part of the award, but it's hard not to notice how many wide-open receivers the Packers seem to have on a weekly basis.
Comeback Player of the Year
3. Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Remember when Bruce Arians said that Gronkowski's role was as a blocker? He has certainly done his fair share of blocking, but as the season has progressed, he has started to look more like his old self as a receiver, too. Since Week 6, Gronkowski ranks sixth in the league among tight ends in receiving yards (483) and second in touchdowns (seven). The only receivers with more red zone touchdowns over that time frame are Davante Adams, Adam Thielen, Travis Kelce and A.J. Brown. Pretty good for a blocking tight end.
There's a lot of mouths to feed in Tampa, but don't be shocked if Tom Brady ramps up Gronkowski's target rate even further this month, especially if Mike Evans' injury turns out to be serious.
2. Jason Verrett, CB, San Francisco 49ers
The former Chargers standout was out for the Week 15 game against the Cowboys with a non-coronavirus-related illness, but Verrett was able to make it through something close to a full season after missing 70 games across his first six professional campaigns. According to Pro Football Reference, Verrett had allowed a passer rating of 76.8 in coverage heading into Week 17.
He has been one of the best players on a 49ers defense riddled with injuries and earned a new deal, either with San Francisco or somebody else.
1. Alex Smith, QB, Washington Football Team
There's likely one person on the planet who thought Alex Smith would be the starting quarterback on a divisional champ at the end of the 2020 season, and his name is Alex Smith. Yes, I know that Washington finished 7-9. I'm aware that Smith posted a 34.8 Total QBR. It doesn't matter. We're talking about a guy who underwent 17 surgeries on his leg.
If he's not the Comeback Player of the Year, there's no point in even having the award.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
3. Julian Blackmon, S, Indianapolis Colts
The injury to Bears corner Jaylon Johnson and inconsistent tackling from Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen opened up a spot in the top three, and with all due respect to guys like Kam Curl (Washington) and Jeremy Chinn (Carolina), I thought Blackmon deserved to be in the mix. The safety entered the lineup in Week 2 after 2017 first-rounder Malik Hooker suffered a torn Achilles, and the defense got better.
We normally think of the Colts as a two-deep team, but Blackmon's range has allowed them to play more single-high looks this season. The converted corner has also come up with two interceptions and a forced fumble across his 14 starts this season.
2. Antoine Winfield Jr., S, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As good as Blackmon has been, his role doesn't quite allow him to make the same sort of impact Winfield has for the Bucs. The Tyrann Mathieu comparisons haven't held up in coverage, with Winfield allowing a passer rating of 146.1, but the inexperienced man's Jamal Adams comp might fit. Winfield has three sacks, two forced fumbles, four quarterback knockdowns and an interception.
The son of the former Vikings standout appeared to add to his résumé by returning a fumble for a touchdown Sunday, only for Winfield to be ruled down after picking up the football. He's an every-down, essential player for Todd Bowles' defense.
1. Chase Young, DE, Washington Football Team
An early-season injury temporarily threw off what had seemed like a predestined path to Defensive Rookie of the Year, but Young got back on track in the second half of the season. From Week 12 on, he produced four sacks, eight quarterback knockdowns and seven tackles for loss. The No. 2 overall pick batted away four passes over that time frame, forced three fumbles and recovered three, including one for a 47-yard touchdown against the 49ers and another during Sunday's bizarre win over the Eagles.
I'm not sure Washington makes the playoffs without Young.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
3. Tristan Wirfs, OT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It's my award ballot, so I can do this. I put Wirfs on my first-team All-Pro team, and even after accounting for positional scarcity, the Iowa product deserves to get serious Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration. Right tackle was the obvious hole on the Tampa roster after the team signed Tom Brady, and the veteran quarterback's numbers collapsed when he was pressured in 2020. Wirfs' presence has kept the heat off Brady; the rookie has allowed only one sack all season.
Jets left tackle Mekhi Becton would also be in the discussion here if he hadn't missed two games and most of two more with injuries. Fans of guys like Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis) and Chase Claypool (Pittsburgh) will be mad that they're not featured here, and they've had great seasons. Let me give an offensive lineman the respect they deserve for once.
2. Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
The Oregon product was thought to be rawer than Joe Burrow or Tua Tagovailoa, but since being forced into the lineup on an emergency basis in Week 2, Herbert has looked like a reliable pro. The Chargers have had some late-game fiascoes, but the young quarterback generally hasn't been to blame. Since that Chiefs game, Herbert ranks 13th in QBR and 15th in passer rating. Only five quarterbacks have thrown for more first downs since Week 2.
Rookies can sink their teams with disastrous performances, but his only real stinker was the 45-0 loss to the Patriots, and even that had more to do with the special teams. Herbert has also done this while missing running back Austin Ekeler and wideout Keenan Allen for stretches and playing behind an offensive line that ranks last in pass block win rate (45.6%). The Chargers are perennially a team of stars desperately in need of some support; Herbert is one of the stars already.
1. Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Herbert likely will end up winning the real award when it's handed out, but I have to get behind Jefferson's special season. Like Herbert, Jefferson started the season on the bench. And like Herbert, once he got into the starting lineup, it seemed almost criminal that he hadn't begun the year as the No. 1. In an offense that gets Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen tons of touches, Jefferson has forced his way into a starring role. A 133-yard performance in the season-ending win over the Lions gave Jefferson 1,400 yards for the year, marking the best rookie receiving season since 1960.
Jefferson made his debut in a pass-happy era, but he posted seven games with 100 receiving yards or more. The only other guy since the 1970 merger to do that is another former LSU star, Odell Beckham Jr.
Comparing Jefferson to rookies might sell him short. Since entering the starting lineup in Week 3, he leads receivers of any experience level in receiving yards with 1,330. He has been so good that Vikings fans don't even miss Stefon Diggs, who led the league in receiving yards this season.
Defensive Player of the Year
3. Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams
Donald is rightfully considered as the best defensive player in football heading into each season these days, and while this wasn't his most dominant year, even a routine season makes him a candidate for this trophy. The 29-year-old finished the regular season tied with Trey Hendrickson for second in the league with 13.5 sacks, adding 14 tackles for loss and 26 quarterback knockdowns.
As a measure of how much Donald does for his teammates, the future Hall of Famer created a league-high 18 sacks in 2020, including seven for other Rams players.
2. T.J. Watt, edge, Pittsburgh Steelers
The league still generally treats edge rushers as more valuable than every other defensive position, and Watt was comfortably the best guy on the edge in 2020. Despite sitting out in Week 17, he won the pass-rushing triple crown by leading the league in sacks (15), tackles for loss (23) and quarterback knockdowns (41). Like his older brother used to do at his peak, Watt lapped the field in the latter two categories.
He's also no slouch against the run, as Watt ranked 15th in the league on the edge in terms of run stop win rate. He's the total package.
1. Xavien Howard, CB, Miami Dolphins
This season didn't end well for the Dolphins, but Howard was one of the biggest reasons Brian Flores' team controlled its playoff destiny heading into the final week. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, passes in Howard's direction cost opposing offenses 30.1 expected points, which was the best mark for any cornerback in football. The easiest way to generate expected points on defense is to create takeaways, and Howard did plenty of that, becoming the first player since Antonio Cromartie in 2007 to intercept 10 passes in a season.
To do that in 2020 is really special. Quarterbacks are collectively posting the lowest interception rate in league history. Interceptions are really, really hard to come by. To put this in context, Howard is responsible for 2.5% of the league's interceptions this season. That's the best mark since the 1970 merger. Nobody had topped 2.1% since 1974. Interceptions aren't everything for a cornerback, but Howard finished with the best passer rating allowed by a cornerback (46.5) and was nearly 14 points better than second-place Jaire Alexander.
I was expecting to pick Watt, but when I looked closer, I thought Howard's season was too special to keep in second place.
Offensive Player of the Year
As always, since the league has an MVP award and always gives that award to an offensive player, the player pool for Offensive Player of the Year is murky. I prefer to give this award to a non-quarterback and then discuss quarterbacks in the MVP balloting.
3. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
My two other picks in this list sat out Week 17 for different reasons. Henry decidedly did not; with the Titans needing a victory to guarantee first place in the AFC South, Henry ran for 250 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-38 win over the Texans. In doing so, he became the eighth player in league history to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a single season. That's a wildly impressive round number, and it could be enough to push Henry over the top and win this award when things are all said and done. I can't fault anybody who would pick Henry as the best offensive player in football this season.
In 2020, though, we know that running plays just aren't as valuable as contributions in the passing game. There, Henry was a nonfactor; he finished with 19 catches for 114 yards and just four first downs. The other running back I have ahead of Henry doesn't come close to the Titans star in terms of pure rushing numbers, but his contributions as a receiver make Alvin Kamara more valuable to his team in terms of producing expected points on offense with the ball in his hands:
To think about it another way, consider that Henry used 397 touches to generate 2,141 yards, 102 first downs and 17 touchdowns. Kamara used 270 touches to produce 1,688 yards, 93 first downs and 21 touchdowns. Henry had more volume, but those extra 127 touches produced 453 additional yards and nine first downs, which amounts mostly to empty calories.
If you want to argue that Henry helped out the prolific Titans play-action game, I won't argue beyond pointing to Ben Baldwin's research on this topic, which suggests that running success and play-action success don't have much of a relationship. Even if you want to discount Kamara's receiving EPA by 50% as a product of catching passes from Drew Brees, he would still have produced more value on fewer touches than Henry.
2. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
Having said all that, Kamara still isn't the Offensive Player of the Year ...
1. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
If Kelce doesn't win Offensive Player of the Year, I don't think a tight end could ever win this award. As good as Kamara and Henry were this season, Kelce lapped the competition at tight end. Despite sitting out Week 17, he set the single-season record for receiving yardage at the position with 1,416. As I mentioned in my All-Pro team column, the only other tight end in the league to top 750 yards this season was Darren Waller, who finished more than 200 yards short of Kelce. He was better than the rest of the guys at his position more than any other player at any other position this season, and while that's not enough to win this award alone, it's a sign of how dominant he was week after week for the Chiefs.
You could also make a case that Kelce was the most productive receiver in football. Nobody produced more first downs than Kelce's 79. Heading into Week 17, he led the league in DYAR. He dropped just one of his 146 targets and finished fourth in yards per route run.
Davante Adams likely would have won this if he had stayed healthy all season, and Stefon Diggs is right next to him in the top five, but Kelce just had the greatest season at his position in league history.
Most Valuable Player
3. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Nobody is hotter as a passer right now than Allen. Over the last five weeks of the season, he has been downright unconscious. He's second in the league in QBR over that stretch behind Lamar Jackson, and while Jackson has been dominating as a runner, Allen has thrown 184 passes to Jackson's 100. The Wyoming product has completed more than 70% of his passes, averaged more than 8.2 yards per attempt and thrown 15 touchdowns against just two picks, one of which came on a play in which Pittsburgh's Cam Heyward hit his arm. Just as Andy Dalton was the most popular man in Buffalo two years ago, Allen should be the pride of Indianapolis right now. After a ho-him 56-26 blowout of the Dolphins on Sunday, he's the reason the Colts -- who needed Miami to lose -- are in the playoffs.
Allen hasn't even had the sort of disaster game we saw from Aaron Rodgers against the Buccaneers earlier this season, but he has had a bunch of contests in which he was middling, most notably during a four-game stretch in October. Allen had five games with a passer rating under 80; Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes had only one of those each. Allen has added more value with his legs than his counterparts, but he also has more turnovers (14) than Mahomes and Rodgers combined (11). Allen has made incredible strides, and he has been a much better quarterback than I ever would have imagined. He might very well be the most dangerous quarterback in the league heading into the postseason.
2. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
This was a very different sort of season for Mahomes than the breathtaking campaign that earned the reigning Super Bowl champ his first MVP nod in 2018. He has traded some of his big plays for ruthless, steady efficiency. After averaging 8.8 yards per attempt during that 2018 campaign, Mahomes is down to 8.1 yards per attempt this season. Mahomes led the league with 37 completions traveling 20 yards or more in the air in 2018; this year, Mahomes ranked sixth in the league with 26.
In response to teams selling out to take away the big plays, he has also cut his interception rate in half, from 2.1% to 1.0%. He doesn't get there anywhere close to the same way, but Mahomes' stat line this season looked a lot like what we saw from Brady during his last MVP season in 2017. He had the best tandem of receivers in football with Kelce and Tyreek Hill, but Mahomes also did this in a season in which he had a wildly inconsistent running game and has been down multiple starting offensive linemen for most of the season.
Chiefs games have been closer than their 14-2 record would suggest, but Mahomes has been the one pulling things out in the fourth quarter and overtime, where his 93.7 QBR is the second-best mark we've seen for any quarterback over the past 20 years. My pick, though, has usually managed to push the game out of hand by the time things get to the fourth quarter ...
1. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
What a difference a few months makes, huh? Back in April, plenty of people were suggesting that the Packers might be trying to get rid of Rodgers as early as the 2021 season. I didn't think that was likely, but after a five-year run in which Rodgers was closer to good than great, it certainly seemed like the Jordan Love draft pick had put a timetable on his remaining days in Green Bay. As an aside at the end of my column in April, I wondered whether Rodgers might be motivated by his own organization going after its quarterback of the future.
I'm not sure whether that decision really lit a fire under Rodgers or if he would have had a different season had the Packers drafted somebody other than Love in the first round. Whether it was that, a second season under LaFleur or something more random or inexplicable, Rodgers had a season for the ages. He posted the best QBR, completion percentage and first-down rate of his Hall of Fame career. His passer rating, net yards per attempt and touchdown rate were his best marks since 2014, when he last won the MVP. It was as if the 2015 to 2019 seasons -- a five-year span in which Rodgers ranked 15th in QBR and ninth in passer rating -- simply never happened.
While it was a close race, Rodgers led the league in just about every all-in-one statistical category for quarterbacks, including QBR, passer rating, total EPA, EPA per dropback and adjusted yards per attempt. He became the first player in league history to produce 14 games in a single season with a passer rating of 100 or more or 10 games in a single season with a passer rating of 120 or more. The only case you can make against him is that Mahomes (588 pass attempts) and Allen (572) threw the ball more frequently than Rodgers (526). I don't think that gap is enough to overcome Rodgers' efficiency across the board; he still ranks ahead of both quarterbacks by cumulative expected points.
One of the lessons from this season is that we know a lot less about quarterbacks than it might seem. Allen came into the year as a guy who might be holding back the Bills and left 2020 as a bona fide superstar. Carson Wentz entered the year as a franchise quarterback and finished it looking for a new franchise. At 36, Rodgers looked to be on his way down after a run as one of the best quarterbacks in the history of football. What he did instead reaffirmed his status. The list of guys who have won three MVP awards is small: Jim Brown, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Johnny Unitas and Peyton Manning (who won five). It's a group Rodgers deserves to join.