I put together an All-Pro team for the 2020 NFL season. I always get started thinking about this when the NFL releases its Pro Bowl rosters. The Pro Bowl is generally a good measure of player performance over an entire career, but it should be telling that one of their improvements in 2020 is that the voters didn't pick any players who had been benched during the season, as former Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes was for stretches in 2019. Ironically, Rhodes has been much better for the Colts this season and didn't get a Pro Bowl nod.
I prefer working with the idea of an All-Pro roster to focus on the best of the best. And since it's my team, I can be realistic about what the NFL looks like in 2020. I don't include a fullback or a third starting linebacker; instead, I'm including a third wide receiver and cornerback. T.J. Watt and Cameron Jordan play the same role as edge rushers, even if one is a 3-4 outside linebacker and the other is a 4-3 defensive end. I'm lumping them together in one group.
One more thing: In many cases here, there were miniscule differences between two or more players competing for one roster spot. When that happened, I generally -- but not always -- preferred the player who played more games or was on the field more frequently. Availability matters, and the difference between a player suiting up for 12 games and a similarly efficient player making it on the field for all 15 contests is more dramatic than it might seem. I'll try to mention where that matters.
Let's start with two fiercely fought positional races, ones I expect to get more into when I file my end-of-season awards ballot next week:
Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Packers
I've preferred Patrick Mahomes as my top quarterback (and accordingly my MVP pick) for most of the season, but Rodgers moved ahead of Mahomes after Week 16. At this point, Rodgers leads the Chiefs star in just about every significant quarterback rate statistic, as Total QBR, passer rating, yards per attempt, completion percentage, EPA and CPOE all favor the 37-year-old Rodgers.
Mahomes has more passing volume, but it doesn't make up for the difference between the two. More on that next week.
Running back: Alvin Kamara, Saints
This is another one I'll want to address when I talk about Offensive Player of the Year next week, but expected points added (EPA) tells the story here. This was a close race by EPA through 15 weeks between Kamara, Minnesota's Dalvin Cook and Tennessee's Derrick Henry. Then, Kamara's amazing Week 16 happened:
It's good to score six touchdowns!
Wide receiver: Stefon Diggs, Bills
There are five excellent candidates for three wideout spots, so I'm going to make two sets of fans very angry. Let's start with the league leader in receiving yards, Diggs, who was expected to be getting into daily fistfights with Josh Allen by this point of the season. Those post-trade expectations could not have turned out to be more wrong. Diggs has had a preternatural link with his new quarterback all season and has pushed the Bills to a new level.
The former Vikings star leads the league in catches and targets, but he's more than strictly volume. NFL Next Gen Stats assigns Diggs 158 targets and an expected catch rate on those passes of 64.5%. His actual catch rate is 75.9%, for a difference of 11.4%; the only other guy ahead of him with 75 targets or more is the Titans' Corey Davis (13.2%) and the player right below him is Justin Jefferson (9.6%), the guy the Vikings drafted to replace Diggs. What a win-win trade.
Wide receiver: Davante Adams, Packers
Adams is the best wideout in the league on a play-by-play basis this season. He missed two-plus games with a hamstring injury and will still probably lead the league in receiving touchdowns.
Adams has 1,328 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns in 13 games; two scores in the season finale against the Bears would put him third in the single-season record books behind Randy Moss in 2007 and Jerry Rice's 22-in-12 1987 campaign. Adams is averaging 3.17 yards per route run, which laps the field; nobody else in the league is topping 2.8 yards per route this season.
Wide receiver: DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals
You can make strong cases for Kansas City's Tyreek Hill and Seattle's DK Metcalf, but Hopkins has been the most reliable receiver in the league for a team whose offense has come down to Hopkins and Kyler Murray making magic happen for victories at times. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Hopkins has dropped 0.7% of the passes thrown in his direction this season, a massive feat for a player with the second-largest target volume in football. No wideout has produced more first downs than Hopkins's 73.
Hill and Metcalf have consistently been more spectacular on a week-to-week basis, but Hopkins' Hail Mary catch in mid-November might be what pushes the Cardinals into the playoffs.
Tight end: Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Kelce might be the easiest selection on this list. He has 1,416 receiving yards; the only other tight end in the NFL who has even half of Kelce's yardage is Darren Waller, who is 337 yards behind him. Kelce leads all receivers -- tight end or otherwise -- with 79 catches for first downs. ESPN has first-down totals going back through 2001, and no tight end over that time has moved the chains as frequently as Kelce has this season.
His 98-yard performance in Week 16 pushed him ahead of George Kittle's 2018 season for the most receiving yards by a tight end in a single season in league history. Even by Kelce's standards, this has been a stunning campaign.
Offensive tackle: David Bakhtiari, Packers
Bakhtiari and New Orleans' Terron Armstead have both missed about the same amount of time this season, so I'm not sure I can put them both on the team. Between the two, I think Bakhtiari has had the better year. The Packers' left tackle ranks eighth in the league in pass block win rate (PBWR) among tackles to Armstead's 22nd. PBWR loves the Packers on the whole, but Bakhtiari also enjoys a similar lead on Armstead in run block win rate (RBWR).
Stats LLC credits Bakhtiari with one sack allowed to Armstead's 3.5. Armstead had one of the blocks of the season this past week, but he's just behind Bakhtiari and my other choice at tackle.
Offensive tackle: Tristan Wirfs, Buccaneers
We knew this was supposed to be a 2020 draft with excellent offensive tackles at the top of the class, but Wirfs has been absolutely essential for the Buccaneers. The only rookie on this list, he has played every single snap for the Bucs while allowing just one charted sack, according to Stats LLC.
Tom Brady ranks sixth in Total QBR when he's not pressures and 29th when he's flustered. Wirfs locking down the right side of the line has helped Brady look like his old self in his new digs.
Guard: Quenton Nelson, Colts
Nelson wasn't as surefire of a pick this season as he was a year ago because of an increase in penalties. The No. 6 overall pick in the 2018 draft has been flagged eight times, including six for holding. On a play-by-play basis, though, no interior lineman in the league is more physically imposing or jumps off the screen the way Nelson does.
Nelson ranks in the top five among guards in both PBWR (fifth) and RBWR (second). He even took some snaps at left tackle while Anthony Castonzo has been unavailable for the Colts.
Guard: Joel Bitonio, Browns
A number of the other candidates at guard haven't been healthy. Perennial pick Zack Martin has missed the better part of seven games for the Cowboys. Tampa Bay's Ali Marpet was out for three weeks. Washington's Brandon Scherff was unavailable for 3½ contests. Wyatt Teller has missed five Browns games and most of a sixth. I lean toward players who are on the field who have played something close to a full season unless they've been spectacular, which is why I'm opting for Teller's teammate in Cleveland.
Bitonio has been a force as a run-blocker and in the Browns' two-headed attack, but the 29-year-old also leads all guards in PBWR, succeeding at a 97% clip. He hasn't allowed a sack all season, and the Nevada product's only penalty is a lone false start. He has also missed just one snap, which helped him come in ahead of Teller and Scherff.
Center: Rodney Hudson, Raiders
Center can be one of the more difficult positions in the league to judge, but I was shocked that Hudson didn't make it to the Pro Bowl ahead of the Steelers' Maurkice Pouncey or the Colts' Ryan Kelly. The Raiders were focused on having Derek Carr get the ball out quickly in years past, but Carr has held the ball for an average of 2.73 seconds this season, which is the 13th-longest figure in the league. Hudson has helped make that possible.
He has also helped the Raiders get by on the interior without Richie Incognito, who hasn't played since Week 2. Hudson has played every snap and has gone all season without committing a penalty or allowing a sack. He's one of the most underrated players in all of football.
Edge defender: T.J. Watt, Steelers
Watt is the most productive defensive player in the game. He leads the league in sacks (15), tackles for loss (23), quarterback hits (41), and pass rush win rate (27.6%).
He might not get a chance to build on those totals if the Steelers sit their starters in Week 17, but the question with Watt is less whether he belongs on this list and more whether there is anybody who can compete with him for Defensive Player of the Year.
Edge defender: Myles Garrett, Browns
Garrett, on the other hand, has everything to play for against a Steelers team that will be starting Mason Rudolph at quarterback. Since returning from his suspension for smacking Rudolph with a helmet, Garrett has forced four fumbles and racked up 12 sacks in 13 games. He leads the league in initial pressures (96) and sacks created by an edge rusher (16.5), a number that includes 10 of his own and 6.5 for his teammates.
A big Week 17 would probably lock him in here ahead of Za'Darius Smith (Packers) and Trey Hendrickson (Saints).
Defensive tackle: Aaron Donald, Rams
If Kelce isn't the easiest entry onto this list, then Donald is. Despite the fact that the Rams star is double-teamed at the fourth-highest rate in the league, his 24% pass rush win rate ranks sixth in the league. He has created a league-high 18 sacks, including seven for his teammates.
This isn't Donald's most dominant season, but he's still the most devastating interior disruptor in the game.
Defensive tackle: Grady Jarrett, Falcons
I went back and forth between Jarrett and the Colts' DeForest Buckner for the other tackle spot. Buckner's raw numbers are better, as he has 7.5 sacks and 24 knockdowns, and he has been double-teamed more frequently as a pass-rusher. On the other hand, Jarrett has created 70 initial pressures to Buckner's 43, has generated more hurries than his counterpart and has the league's third-best run stop win rate on the interior.
Jarrett can even pop into the occasional bit of pass coverage. I narrowly went with Jarrett, but either player would be a fine pick.
Inside linebacker: Roquan Smith, Bears
I already felt like Smith deserved to be a Pro Bowler before Week 16, but his two-interception game against the Jaguars helped push him over excellent 49ers defender Fred Warner for the ILB spot. Smith has stuffed the stat sheet this season; in addition to those two picks, the former first-rounder has a forced fumble, four sacks and six knockdowns. He's tied for the NFL lead with 97 solo tackles and leads all linebackers in tackles for loss with 17 while allowing a passer rating of 58.4 in coverage.
While quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has been credited for raising his game during Chicago's three-game winning streak, it has really been Smith who has hit another level.
Outside linebacker: Lavonte David, Buccaneers
The perennially underrated David doesn't have the sack totals of teammate Devin White, but his range as a run defender makes him an invaluable member of the league's best run defense. David is always going to rank among the league leaders in tackles, but even beyond that sheer volume, the 30-year-old has added 11 tackles for loss, six passes defensed and a pair of forced fumbles.
Back in 2013, the league didn't honor David with a Pro Bowl nod in the middle of an incredible season. I put him on my All-Pro list and was delighted when the actual voters recognized his talent. Since then, he has inexplicably made it to just one Pro Bowl. Here's hoping to get David the attention he deserves for a second time.
Cornerback: Xavien Howard, Dolphins
We knew Howard had this sort of disruptive season in him when he picked off seven passes in 12 games in 2018, but the 2016 second-round pick is playing even better this season. Pro Football Reference charted Howard with a passer rating of 61.2 in 2018, but he's down to 43.8 this season. NFL Next Gen Stats notes that quarterbacks targeting Howard as the nearest defender in coverage have generated minus-33.6 EPA, the best mark by far for any defensive back with 200 coverage snaps or more this season. The Broncos' Bryce Callahan (minus-25.6) and Packers' Jaire Alexander (minus-22.6) are the only other corners who have cost opposing offenses 20-plus EPA.
Howard has also stayed healthy after missing significant time in three of his first four seasons. He's the best cornerback in the league right now.
Cornerback: Jalen Ramsey, Rams
Of course, the guy who used to play in Florida also has a claim on that title. Ramsey doesn't have Howard's ball skills, but he has gotten the best of many of the league's top receivers. Ramsey doesn't always shadow No. 1 wideouts, but here are a few of the players he has shadowed this season and what they've done against him:
Even these numbers overstate what top wideouts have been able to do against Ramsey; the touchdowns scored by Evans and Hopkins both came against Troy Hill in coverage. The Rams might have paid a lot to get Ramsey, but he has been the corner they hoped for in 2020.
Cornerback: Marlon Humphrey, Ravens
The final spot at corner came down to Humphrey and Green Bay's Jaire Alexander, and it wasn't an easy decision. Alexander has done an excellent job of locking down the right side of the field (the left side of the defense), while Humphrey moves around the field and into the slot to take on opposing receivers. That versatility is an added bit of value, because it's harder for opposing offenses to avoid you.
Humphrey also has a wild number in his corner; he has forced eight fumbles this season, the first time a defensive back has done that since Charles Tillman did it 10 times in 2012. We all know about the Peanut Punch, but if Humphrey can keep this up in the years to come, we might need to start talking about the Humphrey Hit. (The name is a work in progress.)
Safety: Tyrann Mathieu, Chiefs
Mathieu has given up a big play or two this season, but the jack-of-all-trades has been essential for the Kansas City defense. The former LSU star has set a career-high with six interceptions, which ranks third in the league behind Howard and the Patriots' J.C. Jackson. Mathieu has allowed a passer rating of 62.7 as the nearest defender in coverage, which is the best mark in football for a safety and an incredible figure for a guy who moves all around the defensive formation.
If Mathieu plays in Week 17, he'll have made it through 16 games in each of the past four seasons. At a point in his career in which some defensive backs are rapidly declining, he seems to be getting better with age.
Safety: Minkah Fitzpatrick, Steelers
No, Fitzpatrick doesn't have the gaudy numbers we saw from him after he joined the Steelers in 2019, but he continues to show that his ability to be in the right place at the right time for takeaways is no fluke. Even beyond the traditional numbers, Fitzpatrick's presence in the middle of the field is a difference-maker.
His cover abilities as an ex-cornerback allow the Steelers to feel comfortable using Fitzpatrick to cut routes or to run with deep crossers passing his face. The Steelers were also the stingiest defense in the league this season when teams tried to throw deep to the middle of the field, where their 43.1 QBR allowed was more than 11 points better than any other team.
Kicker: Jason Sanders, Dolphins
Sanders' 44-yard field goal helped seal a critical comeback victory for the Dolphins against the Raiders in Week 16. Miami had no issue trusting its kicker; he has missed just three of his 71 attempts this season. Sanders ranks third in terms of value generated on scoring plays this year behind Jason Myers (Seahawks) and Graham Gano (Giants), but he makes up the difference by being the kicker on the league's top kickoff unit.
He comes in just ahead of Myers, who has gone 22-of-22 on field goals while missing three extra points.
Punter: Jake Bailey, Patriots
The second-year punter and his coverage units have been one of the few bright spots for the Patriots this season. Bailey leads the league in net yards per punt (49.1) and is tied with Seattle's Michael Dickson for second in terms of pinning opposing offenses inside the 20 (57.1%).
Tress Way's Washington unit leads the league in value generated by punts, in part because Way's 67 punts are second in the NFL. Nobody has produced more EPA per punt than Bailey this season.