You didn't think they could do it, did you? It's OK. You can admit it. If you didn't think the NFL could actually complete a full 16-game regular season in its regularly scheduled 17 weeks, you certainly weren't alone. Heck, the league wasn't even sure it could do it.
But it's OK to be wrong, because some surprises are pleasant ones and because it's good to remind ourselves every once in a while that we don't know everything.
Which brings me to the topic of this season's 14 NFL playoff teams. With 16 games in the books for each one of them, you might think you know certain things about them. I'm here to tell you that maybe you don't.
Instead of evaluating overreactions this week, we're going to pivot to busting myths. As in, take one thing about each playoff team that is generally thought to be true and tell you why it isn't. I reached out to ace researcher Doug Clawson of ESPN Stats & Information for help with the numbers, and he was happy to help.
If you're the sort of person who gets upset when you're told you're wrong, it could be a tough read. But it's going to be worth it, I promise. You will emerge from this experience a better educated and informed NFL playoff observer. You can thank Doug and me later.
NFC:
1. Packers
2. Saints vs. 7. Bears
3. Seahawks vs. 6. Rams
4. Washington vs. 5. Buccaneers
AFC:
1. Chiefs
2. Bills vs. 7. Colts
3. Steelers vs. 6. Browns
4. Titans vs. 5. Ravens
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers
The myth: Aaron Rodgers doesn't have a great supporting cast.
Rodgers is an unquestioned superstar -- a guaranteed Hall of Famer and the likely 2020 MVP winner in the middle of one of his best seasons. But the narrative around him seems to be that he could somehow be even better if the Packers would build a better team around him. This chorus grew louder than ever this offseason, after Green Bay took quarterback Jordan Love in the first round of a draft loaded with wide receiver talent. And now, part of the case for Rodgers over Patrick Mahomes for MVP seems to be that he's doing what he's doing without help.
Why it's wrong: So many reasons. The Packers have actually built a pretty awesome infrastructure around Rodgers. Davante Adams has been nothing less than the best wide receiver in the league this season, and Aaron Jones has turned into one of the most reliable running backs in the league. The Packers' offensive line ranks first in pass block win rate and run block win rate. Rodgers' receivers lead the league in average yards of separation and average maximum speed on catches. Second-year head coach and playcaller Matt LaFleur is helping Rodgers with schemes that rely heavily on pre-snap motion and play-action. Green Bay is running play-action on 32% of its plays -- the highest such figure in Rodgers' career.
If you want to say Rodgers is having a better year than Mahomes, fine. But the idea that he's carrying the Packers by himself just isn't supported by facts.
2. New Orleans Saints
The myth: Drew Brees can't beat defenses with his arm anymore.
Brees will turn 42 on Jan. 15 -- either one or two days before the Saints' second playoff game, if they can win their first. For the first few weeks of this season, the talk around the Saints was that Brees couldn't throw it deep anymore. In the second half of the season, he missed a chunk of games because of injuries that included multiple fractured ribs and a collapsed lung.
Brees isn't a young quarterback anymore, and the perception is that he's a dinker-and-dunker whose run game and checkdown game are the most reliable parts of the Saints' offense.
Why it's wrong: Air yards aren't overly relevant in a Saints offense that doesn't ask Brees to throw the ball deep much, but he did complete a pass in Week 15 against the Chiefs that traveled 50 yards in the air, so it's not impossible. And besides, he's pinpoint in the midrange game where New Orleans needs him to thrive. Through Week 16, he was completing 70% of his throws in the 15-to-20-yard range. That was tied for the second-best such completion percentage in the NFL.
The Saints want to beat teams with a lot of Alvin Kamara and a lot of defense. And if star wideout Michael Thomas were to come back healthy, Brees would have his most reliable target to throw to again. The Saints' passing game would look better with a fully healthy Thomas, but it's certainly good enough without him to get them by.
3. Seattle Seahawks
The myth: Seattle's defense is terrible.
This was the book on the Seahawks for much of this season. Following a Week 10 loss to the Rams that dropped their record to 6-3, the Seahawks were giving up 448.3 yards per game -- on pace for 7,172. The NFL record is 7,042 by the 2012 Saints. If you play fantasy football, you knew almost all season that you should start any player who was playing the Seahawks. It was basically guaranteed points.
Why it's wrong: Because the Seahawks fixed a few things. They got star safety Jamal Adams back from injury in Week 9, and from then through Week 16 they had the league's third-best scoring defense and ranked ninth in defensive efficiency. Adams makes a difference, and Seattle players would tell you the trade deadline acquisition of defensive end Carlos Dunlap did too (though our stats tell us Dunlap has been one of the league's worst edge defenders in pass rush win rate since he got to Seattle).
This was a defense with some youth and new faces in new places that might have needed some time for everyone to get used to one another and improve communication, but the Seahawks have settled down big time in the second half of the season.
4. Washington Football Team
The myth: Chase Young is one of the best rookie defensive players in the NFL.
Young is just incredible to the eye test. Every week you watch him, it looks as if he has gotten about three weeks better than he was the week before. The No. 2 overall pick in the 2020 draft has been everything for which Washington could have hoped.
Through Week 16, he led all rookie defenders with 6.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, three batted passes and a pass-rush win rate of 22.2%. He's the runaway choice for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Why it's wrong: Because the word "rookie" is in there. Fact is, Young has been one of the best defensive players in the league, rookie or otherwise. Through Week 16, he was one of four edge rushers in the top 10 in both pass-rush win rate and run-stop win rate. The other three were J.J. Watt, Brandon Graham and Joey Bosa, all of whom are (to use a technical term) good.
Young has been the key to elevating a Washington defense that ranked third in defensive efficiency and sixth in sacks entering Week 17. He is poised to be a disruptive force in the NFL for years to come. And while Washington's 7-9 record makes them look like the weak link in the NFL playoff field, he's the kind of guy who can make trouble for, say, a Tom Brady as early as this week.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The myth: The Buccaneers' offense has righted the ship and is playoff-ready.
Tampa Bay returned from a Week 13 bye and promptly reeled off four straight wins by an average score of 37-19. After the first win in the streak, a comeback victory over the Vikings at home, Bucs coach Bruce Arians proclaimed of his offense, "We can do anything we want to."
Quarterback Tom Brady obviously knows how to play his best this time of year, and while it might have been hard for us mere mortals to understand why he was still playing Sunday late in a game that could have no effect on the team's playoff seeding, he definitely goes into the postseason hot.
Why it's wrong: The 43-year-old Brady leads the NFL in pass attempts that travel 20 or more yards downfield. This was a major criticism of the Bucs' offense before their bye, when they were losing to the Rams and Chiefs and we were wondering why Arians was asking Brady to do stuff Brady didn't used to do. Since the bye, Brady is 13-for-25 passing for 452 yards and six touchdowns on throws 20-plus yards down the field -- all league-leading totals that function as a statistical middle finger to those who questioned the strategy.
However, the combined record of the three teams the Bucs have beaten over the past four weeks is 16-32 (they played the Falcons twice). Brady has completed 47% of his deep passes with nine touchdowns and no interceptions in Buccaneers wins and 21% of them with one touchdown and five interceptions in their losses. All five of their losses came against teams in the playoff field. Only one of their wins did.
Arians can brag all he wants, and Brady is the best of all time because of his work in January. But the Bucs now need to string together three straight wins against playoff teams to reach the Super Bowl. It's fair to be skeptical.
6. Los Angeles Rams
The myth: This team is all about mastermind coach Sean McVay and the offense.
It was only a couple of years ago when wunderkind McVay had the Rams in the Super Bowl and a half-dozen or so teams looking to hire head coaches who had any connection to him whatsoever. You could understand why. In his first couple of years as Rams coach, McVay had Jared Goff, Todd Gurley and the Rams' offense humming. Talk that his brand of offensive football was going to revolutionize the league sounded legit. And hey, it still might be. But this year's version? Eh ...
Why it's wrong: The 2020 Rams rank 21st in the NFL in offensive efficiency -- their worst mark since McVay got there. They're a middle-of-the-pack team in passing yards per game and points per game. Truthfully, their offense is boring. The only quarterbacks in the league with a shorter average pass length than Jared Goff this season are Alex Smith and Drew Brees, who aren't exactly known for airing it out these days, and Goff might not even be able to play Saturday if he's not recovered from thumb surgery in time.
No, this season's Rams got to the playoffs because the offense kept it safe and boring while the defense pushed people around. The Rams this season ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency, first in fewest yards allowed per game and first in fewest points allowed per game. The mark of a good coach is that he can identify his team's and his players' strengths and lean on them to win. This year's Rams are a better defensive team than an offensive one. McVay appears to have realized that, and here they are back in the playoffs because of it.
7. Chicago Bears
The myth: Matt Nagy and Mitchell Trubisky have figured everything out.
The Bears lost to the top-seeded Packers on Sunday, but they made the NFC playoffs as an 8-8 wild-card team anyway because of a 3-1 December that probably saved Nagy's job and -- as incomprehensible as this sounds -- might have earned Trubisky a new contract and a chance to return as Chicago's starting quarterback in 2021.
During those four December games, the Bears averaged 35 points and 397 yards per game, and Trubisky ranked fifth in the league in completion percentage and ninth in yards per attempt while throwing seven touchdown passes and only two interceptions. Over their final five games of the season, the Bears' 31.2 points per game was tied with the Saints for the fifth-best mark in the league, and their play-action usage increased from 19th to third in the league.
Why it's wrong: Who were they playing? Four of the five teams the Bears played over the final five weeks ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game. The only one that didn't was the Packers, who beat the Bears 35-16 on Sunday. The other opponents were the Lions, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars, none of whom will be confused with the '85 Bears anytime soon.
Their wild-card game will be against the Saints, who were a top-five defense this year in yards allowed per game and a top-10 one in points allowed per game. If Nagy and Trubisky can get it done in New Orleans, now we're talking. But they haven't beaten any team as good as New Orleans during their late-season surge.
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs
The myth: The way to stop Patrick Mahomes is to pressure him without blitzing.
Before a meaningless Week 17 for the Chiefs, they had lost only one game, and it was to the Raiders in Week 5. Las Vegas generated pressure with four or fewer rushers on 28 of Mahomes' 51 dropbacks in that game, and he was 7-for-21 passing with three sacks and an interception on those plays.
Why it's wrong: First of all, duh. That's like saying the best way to beat LeBron James is to contest his shots without double-teaming him. Or the best way to strike out Mike Trout is to throw your fastball too hard for him to hit it. The ideal way to pressure any quarterback is without blitzing, since it allows the defense to drop more guys into coverage.
But in the case of Mahomes, it's especially wrong. That Raiders game was an anomaly. Fact is, Mahomes has the highest raw QBR of any quarterback in the league against four or fewer pass-rushers. The Chiefs aren't unbeatable -- all seven of their wins from Weeks 9-16 were by six points or fewer -- but there isn't some magic defensive formula for doing it.
2. Buffalo Bills
The myth: Josh Allen can't beat defenses from the pocket.
Allen had a fine 2019 season, but the book on him was that he was at least as big of a threat to beat teams with his legs as with his arm. Last season, he ranked 21st in the league in Total QBR (53.7), 22nd in touchdown passes (16) and 30th in completion percentage (62.1%) on throws from inside the pocket.
Why it's wrong: Because Allen is a different quarterback in 2020. Through Week 16, he had more dropbacks in the pocket than he did last season (470 to 419) and ranked first in the league in QBR (87.1), seventh in touchdown passes (26) and first in completion percentage (72.9%) on throws from inside the pocket. The jump Allen took from Year 2 to Year 3 is one of the stories of the entire season.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
The myth: The Steelers' run game will come back in the playoffs.
Through 16 weeks, the Steelers were the worst running team in the league, ranking last in with 84.4 average rushing yards per game and 3.6 average yards per rush. Only five teams -- the Bears, Chargers, Jaguars, Texans and Jets -- had fewer rushing touchdowns than Pittsburgh's 12.
Why it's wrong: The problem with the Steelers' run game isn't how often they run or even who's running it. It's an offensive line that, through Week 16, ranked 28th in the league in run block win rate and 29th in pass block win rate.
This has been an all-around lousy year for the Steelers' once-vaunted line, and their league-low 13 sacks allowed as rebuttal evidence. That doesn't tell the whole story, though. No quarterback in the NFL has gotten rid of the ball more quickly than Ben Roethlisberger has (2.3 seconds), but he ranks 32nd in yards per attempt (6.3).
4. Tennessee Titans
The myth: The Titans' defense is good enough to win in January.
Coached by former linebacker and defensive coordinator Mike Vrabel, the Titans carry the presumption of quality defense. There are some big names on that side of the ball -- Kevin Byard, Malcolm Butler, Jeffery Simmons, Rashaan Evans, Harold Landry and even Jadeveon Clowney before he got hurt.
Why it's wrong: It's just not even close to being right anymore. Of the 184 teams that have reached the NFL playoffs since 2006, this year's Titans rank 183rd in defensive efficiency. (The 2013 Chargers were No. 184, in case you were wondering.) They're the only team in the past 30 years to allow their opponents to convert more than 50% of their third downs. They got four sacks against the Texans on Sunday in their season finale to raise their season total to 19 and avoid some degree of ignominy -- the fewest sacks by a playoff team since the 1970 merger is 18.
If the Titans are going to beat the Ravens and keep for the second-straight year, they're going to do it by outscoring them with a powerful offense led by Derrick Henry, Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown and Corey Davis. But they're 0-4 this season in games in which they trail by 14 or more points.
5. Baltimore Ravens
The myth: The Ravens are the most dangerous team in the AFC playoff field.
Baltimore looks fantastic right now. It has won five games in a row, averaging better than 230 rushing yards per game over that stretch. Quarterback Lamar Jackson looks like his 2019 MVP self. He rushed for 97 yards and threw three touchdown passes in Sunday's victory in Cincinnati, where the Bengals' offseason defensive meetings are going to address topics like, "Well, can we make the field narrower or something so he doesn't have as much room to scramble?" He didn't even play in the fourth quarter.
When Jackson is playing this way, he's the scariest guy in the league, because teams can't simulate his speed and elusiveness at the QB position in practice. He'll make it tougher for any playoff opponent's defensive coordinator to sleep the night before the game.
Why it's wrong: Well, it might not be wrong, but it's certainly not something we can assume. The Ravens have lost their first playoff game each of the past two seasons, including last season when they went in as the AFC's top seed, were coming off a bye and playing at home. Jackson has a 21.6 QBR in two career playoff games.
Other than the wild Monday night game against Cleveland, no game in Baltimore's winning streak has been against a playoff-caliber opponent. The Ravens haven't shown they have an ability to come back if they fall behind. Jackson is still very young, and it's fair to assume he'll play better in future playoff games than he has in past ones. But until we see him make the throws he needs to make to win in the postseason, we can't assume all is fixed.
6. Cleveland Browns
The myth: The offense would be better if Odell Beckham Jr. were healthy.
Beckham, the star receiver for whom the previous Cleveland front office made a blockbuster trade in the 2019 offseason, suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Browns' Week 7 loss to the Bengals. The Browns won that game 37-34 to improve to 5-2 for the season, and they'd scored 32 or more points in each of their five victories to that point. They averaged 13.75 points in the four games immediately thereafter.
Why it's wrong: The Browns rank fifth in Total QBR and in the top 10 in offensive efficiency since Week 7. They're top-10 in that time in yards per game, yards per play and first downs per game. They're third in the league in third-down conversion starting in Week 7.
Cleveland is anything but a perfect team. It has actually allowed more points (419) than it has scored (408). And the Browns' first-round game is against a Steelers team that's going to be a lot tougher than the one they beat Sunday to reach the postseason. But their offense, which is at its best when the run game is dominating, hasn't suffered statistically since its best receiver was lost for the season.
7. Indianapolis Colts
The myth: The Colts have one of the league's best defenses.
This was the case for the first half of the season. Indianapolis was No. 1 in the league in total defense, if you measure by fewest yards allowed per game, through Week 9. Darius Leonard is a terror at linebacker. DeForest Buckner is a force in the middle of the defensive line. Xavier Rhodes was having a resurgent season at cornerback. The Colts' defense was one of the very best -- if not the best -- into the early part of November.
Why it's wrong: It didn't hold up. From Weeks 10-16, Indy ranked 26th in total defense and 27th in defensive efficiency. In its last three games against teams in the playoff field -- Green Bay, Tennessee and Pittsburgh -- the Colts have allowed an average of 35 points and 390 yards. They did win the Green Bay game in overtime, but they blew a 24-7 second-half lead in Pittsburgh in Week 16 to cost themselves a chance to win the AFC South.
Could they get it together in the postseason? Sure. But they have to go to Buffalo, where the Bills' offense is clicking as well as any in the entire league.