Predicting NFL Week 8 upset picks, fantasy football sleepers and flops, plus trade buzz and notes around the league

Week 8 of the 2021 NFL season is here, and our insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler are back to talk through the biggest storylines of the weekend and make sense of the upcoming NFL trade deadline, which is next Tuesday, Nov. 2.

Graziano and Fowler talked through the complicated Deshaun Watson situation, which they first detailed earlier this month. The Texans' quarterback faces 22 civil lawsuits by women accusing him of sexual assault and inappropriate behavior, but that hasn't quelled the interest from teams who still want to trade for him, including the Dolphins.

Elsewhere, Graziano and Fowler tell us the latest they've heard on players who could be traded and teams that could be sellers. They also made upset picks for an interesting Week 8, predicted players to start and sit in fantasy this week and emptied their notebooks, with nuggets that include what's new with the Cowboys, Packers and Giants, plus whether the Eagles could make a quarterback change if things keep going badly.

Let's dig into Week 8's biggest questions:

Jump to:
Trade buzz | Latest on Watson
Upsets | Fantasy flops | Underrated
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

Let's talk trade deadline: Who are the names you've heard most lately?

Graziano: Teams are watching the Texans, and not just because of Deshaun Watson (who we'll get to in a minute). There's been a belief since the offseason that general manager Nick Caserio might spin off some of the veterans he signed to short-term deals and get picks back for them. So name a veteran running back on the Texans -- Mark Ingram, David Johnson, Rex Burkhead, Phillip Lindsay -- and it's possible he could be on the move. (Update: Ingram was dealt to the Saints on Wednesday night.) Linebacker Zach Cunningham is another name in Houston I've been told is available. I don't get the sense the Texans are planning to trade left tackle Laremy Tunsil or wide receiver Brandin Cooks unless they get bowled over by an offer, which so far they have not.

Fowler: Yeah, Dan, Houston is definitely on our sellers list. The Texans are flexible with a lot of their one-year deals and potentially one of their safeties as well. A sneaky seller could be Seattle, which is short on draft capital after acquiring veterans via trades but now sits at 2-5. The Seahawks would like to get a draft pick for 2019 first-rounder L.J. Collier. A few more things I've heard:

• Multiple teams are interested in Giants tight end Evan Engram. There's genuine affinity league-wide for his skill set despite the lack of elite production. The Giants could be faced with a decision on him.

• The Chiefs need a pass-rusher. That market isn't flush with available talent, but the Steelers are willing to part with Melvin Ingram if Alex Highsmith continues to develop.

• The Panthers want an offensive lineman (or three) -- and maybe a new franchise quarterback, which is another story.

• It wouldn't be a shock to see an AFC North team call Philly about offensive tackle Andre Dillard, who is considered to be on the block. Browns and Ravens have had depth issues there.

Graziano: Buffalo has some pass-rushers people have their eyes on -- guys such as Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison. The Bills could theoretically spare one, but a team would have to make it worth their while. Their defensive line depth is important as they look ahead to a likely postseason run.

I'm also interested to see whether the Jets trade safety Marcus Maye. There has been some interest, as the thought around the league is that the Jets don't plan to sign him long-term. (They can't right now, because he's playing on the franchise tag so they have to wait until after the season. Any acquiring team would have to wait as well.) He and Denver corner Kyle Fuller are defensive backs who are out there for teams in need on the back end.

Fowler: Maye's a good one. He's definitely open to new scenery. I don't get the sense that teams are eager to pay that $10.6 million salary. The Bucs have had some injuries in their secondary, so maybe they look into this. Fuller is a prime candidate to be moved -- in fact, it wouldn't shock to see Denver facilitate a deal by paying some of Fuller's remaining $4.76-million salary after next week to get him off the books. He has played a total of two snaps the last two weeks. Buffalo comes to mind as a contender that could use another zone corner.

What's the latest on a potential Deshaun Watson trade?

Fowler: With less than a week before the deadline, multiple teams remain interested in trading for the Texans quarterback. We've known for a while that Watson is interested in going to Miami, but there are layers to this, too. A source told me the primary goal is to get out of Houston, so if a team other than Miami can help him with that and he likes that team, he will at least listen. That all depends on whether a team is willing to outbid Miami.

Carolina will not pursue Watson over the next week, a league source confirmed Wednesday. But after asking around, it's clear the Panthers badly want a franchise quarterback and know Sam Darnold might not be that guy. They were heavily involved in Watson's trade picture in the offseason, before the sexual assault allegations and civil lawsuits began, and could revisit if Watson stays put. Denver is a wild card, too, though the Broncos haven't made aggressive moves yet. At one point, Watson was intrigued by the team's offensive weapons.

Graziano: This is easily the biggest pre-deadline story of the season, and it's hard to predict whether he will get traded at all before 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday. The way it was explained to me recently by someone in the know is that the trade happens when three parties -- the Texans, the acquiring team and Watson himself -- are all sufficiently motivated to do it. Throughout the summer, it has seemed that Watson was by far the most motivated of the three, as Houston has held out for a major haul of draft picks and the team or teams most interested in Watson have held off on offering it due to all of the uncertainty around the situation. Will an acquiring team raise its offer to Houston's satisfaction by Tuesday afternoon? Will Houston drop its demands by Tuesday afternoon? Will Watson want to go to the team that makes the best offer?

Still, one of the big questions for any acquiring team is whether and when they'd be able to use Watson, who could be subject to league discipline and/or the commissioner's exempt list due to the off-field issues. Jeremy, I've been told the league isn't offering any hints on what it would do on that front if Watson were dealt. What do you make of it?

Fowler: Many of the questions you ask above are still difficult to answer, though commissioner Roger Goodell gave something of a hint at the owners meetings Tuesday, telling reporters the league doesn't have enough information from law enforcement to place him on the commissioner's exempt list at this time. Prospective teams hoping he can play this season would take that as good news. But my understanding is when or if teams call the league, the NFL would give the standard response that the investigation is pending and that it is monitoring the situation. Maybe team owners can have some back-channel conversations with Goodell.

But here's the thing: I talked to a few team execs who are not trying to trade for Watson who say that if they were set on trading for Watson and they knew he would play, say, six games, they could at least budget for and plan around that. With a set amount of missed time, they'd accept that. But the unknown is the most difficult part of this unprecedented situation. Even if he's eligible to play this season, there's the grand jury deposition and a case that could drag on well into 2022. It's tough to forecast how the NFL will react when it can essentially act unilaterally here.

I'm curious about your thoughts here, but after asking around, I'm still 50/50 at best on whether this gets done at all. Houston seems dug-in on wanting three first-round picks and more.

Graziano: I'm pretty close to 50-50 as well, but if I had to guess one way or the other, I still think he does not get dealt by Tuesday's deadline. Too many moving parts, and Houston can look ahead to a potentially more robust market (and maybe some off-field clarity) next offseason. That said, I do want to make it clear that I wouldn't be surprised to see a deal by Tuesday. I just lean the other way.

What's your top upset pick for Week 8?

Graziano: Colts (+1.0) over Titans. Yes, I know Tennessee comes in hot, having knocked off the Bills and Chiefs in a seven-day span. I don't know what the Colts' defense is going to do about A.J. Brown even if it figures out a way to slow down Derrick Henry, but the Titans just might be due for a letdown after their recent run. The Colts are playing a lot better behind an improved Carson Wentz. Indy had a rough start to the season, but it still thinks it can make a run at the AFC South title.

Fowler: Lions (+3.5) over Eagles. Detroit hasn't given up on Dan Campbell and played well against the Rams last week. At least the Lions are playing inspired football. Can't say much of the same for the Eagles, who don't appear to have any answers on game days. The offense consists of Jalen Hurts running around a lot and trying to make plays. Defensive players are growing increasingly frustrated with the scheme, according to sources. If the Detroit defense can keep this low-scoring, it can win.

Graziano: I'm taking the Lions, too! They've been real close a few times, and Philly has plenty of issues of its own. With Joe Flacco traded out of town, I'm watching Philly to see whether Hurts plays poorly enough that they think about benching him for Gardner Minshew. I haven't been told that's a possibility, but the offense hasn't looked good and there's a lot of season left.

Fowler: Sounds like we both would be good with Campbell getting a win. The guy's trying every trick play possible to make it happen. Your Colts pick is solid -- I'm still high on that roster overall. There's a lot of talent -- even if depleted -- in Indy. I'm also liking Minnesota (+2.5) over Dallas. Kirk Cousins can handle a shootout with Dak Prescott.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 8?

Fowler: Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy. No need to ease him back into action after missing six games with an ankle injury. He's healthy and this team needs a spark. The Broncos rank 22nd in yards per play on offense (5.5) and 27th in third-down conversion percentage (31.8%). They had big plans for Jeudy pre-injury, believing he has overcome his propensity for drops and can let his smooth route-running take over. If you stashed him for this long, might as well play him.

Graziano: Love Jeudy. Love this Broncos offense against the Washington defense (though Washington did play a bit better against the Packers in Week 7). I was thinking about taking Jeudy's quarterback here, but instead I'll take another one: Carolina's Sam Darnold. I know he got benched last week, but Atlanta has been generous to opposing QBs in fantasy, and Darnold and the Carolina offense are due for a get-right week. If you've been using Lamar Jackson or Derek Carr (who are off this week) and you're desperate for a streaming quarterback, I say take a shot on the Darnold bounce back.

Fowler: Whew boy, that's bold -- there are some bad vibes coming out of Carolina, so we'll see if Darnold is strong enough to overcome that. I think he is. But the Panthers are definitely looking at their options at quarterback. He was solid through the first four weeks. He still has a ton of ability, so maybe he's a few throws away from resurgence. Atlanta is middle-of-the-road against the pass. Speaking of quarterbacks, is Carson Wentz still a sleeper? As of a few weeks ago he was. I expect him to produce in a heated divisional game with magma-hot Tennessee.

Graziano: Wentz is a good call. I'm not sure people really realize just how good he has been since that rocky start; since Week 4, he ranks second in the NFL in QBR (73.2). The Colts seem happy with him and believe they'll only get healthier on offense as the year goes along.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop for Week 8?

Fowler: Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah. He's coming off a two-touchdown game in Baltimore, but he's not a high-volume tight end. He has just eight targets over the last three games but has turned those into three touchdowns. That's hard to trust -- even against the Jets.

Graziano: Uzomah, huh? Here I thought you were big on the Bengals! Give me Packers running back Aaron Jones. I think the Packers are in for a rough Thursday night against the red-hot Cardinals. Arizona has been tough against fantasy running backs so far this season, and with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard likely out it will be able to devote more resources to stopping Green Bay's run game. The Packers can throw it to Jones and maybe that saves his day, but overall it's going to be a rough game for their offense.

Fowler: Big Bengals guy here. I just see Ja'Marr Chase and the receivers occupying most of the targets. I'd be with you on Jones, but I think he could be heavily involved in the passing game if Adams can't play. Arizona's defense has been one of the best early season storylines, no? Pretty dominant in every area.

Graziano: And it got back Chandler Jones from the COVID-19 reserve list Monday. As the Packers get bad news on COVID-19 cases, Arizona gets good news. Things do seem to be trending the Cardinals' way for Thursday, though I guess maybe that's what Aaron Rodgers wants us all to think ...

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• The Cowboys are optimistic about Dak Prescott playing this week, assuming no setbacks to his calf injury. I'm told the plan was to let him rest up during the bye week and follow a ramp-up period through practices this week, giving him more as the week progresses. The tone from the Cowboys on this is similar to Prescott's preseason shoulder injury -- there might have been some hyperventilating on the outside, but from the inside the team was never truly concerned.

• With Davante Adams and Allen Lazard (COVID-19) poised to miss Thursday night's game with Arizona, Aaron Rodgers could rely heavily on Aaron Jones in the passing game and spread the wealth to various receivers. That was the formula in 2019, when the Packers went 4-0 while Adams was out due to injury. Jones caught 22 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns during that stretch, while six different Packers scored a receiving touchdown. And that was before Green Bay had Robert Tonyan, who is coming off a 63-yard, one-touchdown game against Washington. Expect Rodgers to ride the hot hand vs. Arizona's secondary.

• A little bit on the Joe Flacco trade (back) to the New York Jets: Flacco at one point thought he might return to New York as a free agent in March, knowing the team would draft a quarterback but needed a veteran. The two sides kept in touch. The Jets opted to eschew the veteran route, partly because they didn't want to pay a premium, and the Eagles acted fast by signing Flacco for $3.5 million. Now, by sending Philly a conditional sixth-round pick for Flacco due to Zach Wilson's injury, the Jets get the QB they could have acquired eight months ago without giving up draft capital.

• Some teams around the league are keeping an eye on Philadelphia's quarterback situation -- and whether Gardner Minshew gets a shot eventually. The consensus is the Eagles continue to stay with Jalen Hurts in the short term. But if the slide continues, coach Nick Sirianni might not have a choice. Hurts ranks 26th in QBR at 38.8. The quarterbacks behind him are either rookies or veterans who have had tenuous rides in the NFC West (Jimmy Garoppolo, Jared Goff). Scouts like Hurts but questioned whether he could get it done over a full season. Will he get a full season to help them find out?

Graziano

• NFL team owners are gathering this week in New York City for their annual fall meeting. Not a packed agenda, no voting items, no Super Bowls to award or anything like that. The meeting is most noteworthy for the fact that it's the first time they've all been together in the same place since December of 2019. They're getting updates on the usual stuff -- business of the league, player health and safety, international game plans, etc. But the hot topics in the hallways -- and for commissioner Roger Goodell when he meets the media -- will include the WFT/Jon Gruden situation as well as the Watson situation. Team owners are, for various reasons, interested in where those situations stand as well.

• It's worth noting, after the Titans beat the Bills and Chiefs in a seven-day span, the job offensive coordinator Todd Downing is doing in Tennessee. There was some reason to wonder whether the offense would drop off after Downing's predecessor, Arthur Smith, left to coach the Falcons. And considering the injury issues Tennessee has had at wide receiver this year, it's remarkable that they're in the top 10 in the league in points per game (27.7). Pushing around a Buffalo defense that has been tough this season was noteworthy, and if A.J. Brown and Julio Jones can get/stay healthy at the same time, we could be looking back at the end of the year and saying the Titans' offense didn't miss a beat. If nothing else, Downing, who was the team's tight ends coach before his promotion to OC, is no dummy -- he knows to give the ball to Derrick Henry as much as he can.

• When we talk about potential contract extensions that could move the market upward for quarterbacks -- Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, etc. -- don't overlook the Raiders' Derek Carr. He's second in the league in passing yards (only six behind Tom Brady) for the 5-2 Raiders, who are 2-0 since coach Jon Gruden resigned. Carr will turn 31 next March, and when this season ends he'll have just one year left on his contract at about $19.8 million. The Raiders surely wouldn't want to make him a lame duck, so look for Carr and the team to talk about a contract extension at some point in the coming months. And if he keeps performing like this and the Raiders keep winning, expect the price to be near-top-of-market expensive. The question is: Who makes the call on signing Carr beyond 2022 or letting him go? Gruden was the one making all of the decisions in this organization the past few years. They could have new decision-makers in place at the end of this season, and Carr would be one of several big agenda items for whoever those are.

• The Giants have at least some glimmer of hope that they might get some of their injured offensive stars back this week or next. They ended last week thinking wide receiver Kenny Golladay was getting closer to a return, and running back Saquon Barkley is expected to return to practice this week as well. Barkley sounds like he likely needs another week before he's ready to play in a game, but don't rule out the possibility of Golladay coming back to join Daniel Jones' receiving corps Monday Night. The Giants could use the reinforcements. Their next three games are at Kansas City, home against the Raiders and then at Tampa Bay after the bye. The Chiefs and Bucs games are both on Monday Night Football.

• One of the big keys to the Bengals' surprising early-season success has been the performance of their defense, and one of the big keys to that has been defensive end Trey Hendrickson, who signed with the team as a free agent after it lost Carl Lawson to the Jets in free agency. The main reason the Bengals ended up with Hendrickson instead of keeping Lawson was that Lawson wasn't willing to adhere to the Bengals' preferred contract structure -- basically, limit the guaranteed money to Year 1 -- and Hendrickson was. Hendrickson got a $10 million signing bonus and a $6 million roster bonus guaranteed in addition to his non-guaranteed $3.8 million 2022 salary, and then they're year-to-year on the final three seasons of the deal. Lawson got a total of $30 million fully guaranteed at signing from the Jets, including a $15 million salary in 2022. Unfortunately, Lawson, who was the talk of Jets camp due to his dominating performances in practices, got injured in camp and will miss the entire season, so there's no way to know for sure what he'd have given the Jets. But so far, Hendrickson has given the Bengals 6.5 sacks in seven games. "He's a symbol of that defense overall, because he's just relentless," Packers coach Matt LaFleur told me before Green Bay's squeaker Week 5 victory in Cincinnati. "He doesn't get talked about as much as some of these other guys, but he's got everything they could want at that spot."