Predicting NFL Week 7 upset picks, fantasy football sleepers and flops, plus buzz and notes around the league

It's already Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season, and we asked our insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for some insight on the biggest news and for their picks on games and players to watch this weekend.

A handful of quarterbacks are leading the MVP conversation at the moment, but are there any defenders, running backs or receivers who could be considered this season? Fowler and Graziano weigh in with some candidates from other areas of the field. They also dive in on a big looming decision for the Eagles: What will they do at quarterback next season? Could Jalen Hurts remain the starter, or will the team use a stable of draft picks to start over -- or will they do something else?

Graziano and Fowler also share their upset picks for Week 7, including an unexpected AFC North matchup. And for fantasy managers looking to make all the right moves, they name must-start sleepers and point out potential fantasy flops of the week. They get into all of it, emptying their notebooks with everything they've heard this week, including injury updates for the Browns and Cowboys, how Kirk Cousins' confidence is playing a part in the Vikings' late-game comebacks and what the Seahawks plan to do at quarterback. Let's get started with the upset picks of the week, but you can also jump to other big questions for Week 7.

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Upsets | Non-QB MVPs | Eagles in 2022
Fantasy flops | Underrated gems
Notebook: Everything we're hearing

What's your top upset pick for Week 7?

Fowler: Bengals (+6) over Ravens. Cincinnati is making believers across the league. The defense is better than expected, and the Joe Burrow-Ja'Marr Chase duo connects for a weekly deep-ball party. And even if the Ravens shut down Chase, Burrow has at least four other potent options in the offense. Baltimore's defense was impressive last week against Justin Herbert, but it also allowed 400-plus passing yards to Derek Carr and Carson Wentz earlier this season. Look for the Bengals to make an AFC North statement here.

Graziano: I would love to take the Bengals in Baltimore because I think they are legitimately good on both sides of the ball right now, and people haven't caught on. But after I picked the Chargers to beat the Ravens last week and Baltimore crushed them, I have decided for now to stop doubting John Harbaugh's group.

Instead, I'm going with Broncos (+2.5) over Browns. Yeah, this is cheating a little bit, because I'm writing it while the injury status of ... well, basically half the Browns' roster including their quarterback is up in the air. By the time the game kicks off, the Broncos may well be favored. But while I still see a healthy Browns team as a real threat to win the AFC, this is not a healthy Browns team. And it's the absolute worst time for them to have a Thursday night game.

Fowler: I also have a sneaky feeling Washington will take some heat to Green Bay. I don't have enough conviction to pick a winner here, but it wouldn't shock me. Washington's defense is underachieving, but with a line that talented, the threat of taking over a game is always present. And Green Bay's injuries haven't caught up to them ... yet.

Graziano: I've seen Washington in person twice this year, including Sunday, and I wouldn't pick them to win any game on their schedule except maybe the remaining Giants matchup. That defense is a mess right now. It's not as though one or two things a week aren't breaking their way. They don't stop the run; they don't rush the passer, and they don't cover. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? I admire your gut call, and I agree that the Packers' injury problems are going to be a factor at some point, but I think Aaron Rodgers will do what it takes to check this particular box at home.

Who's more likely to be the Eagles' QB1 in 2022: Jalen Hurts or a rookie first-round pick?

Graziano: Well, if those are my only two choices, I have to say Hurts at this point. The Eagles look likely to have three first-round draft picks. They already have their own and Miami's, and they could end up with Indianapolis' selection if Carson Wentz plays 75% of the snaps for the Colts -- and at this point, all three have a chance to be pretty high. But none looks likely to be the No. 1 pick, and just because you have three to trade doesn't mean you can get all the way up to No. 1. (Just ask the Dolphins, who'd have given the Bengals anything they'd wanted for the top pick in 2020 but couldn't get Cincy to budge off of Joe Burrow.) And from this far out, it looks like a thin QB draft class, which means that's not the most likely route the Eagles will take in their search for a solution.

All of that said, I think the correct answer here is a third choice that's not in the question. The 2022 offseason quarterback market could have a number of enticing, high-profile trade targets, from Aaron Rodgers to Russell Wilson to Deshaun Watson, assuming the latter gets some clarity on his serious off-field issues. Jimmy Garoppolo seems likely to be available. You could easily imagine Derek Carr being available out of the Raiders' upheaval. Jameis Winston is also on a one-year deal in New Orleans.

I'm not saying any of these are perfect solutions -- or even that all of them are necessarily better options than Hurts. (Hurts has a 37.1 Total QBR, but he has thrown eight touchdown passes and run for five additional scores through six games, while completing 62.5% of his passes and only registering four interceptions.) What I am saying is, the three first-round picks will enable the Eagles to do just about anything they want to do at quarterback next offseason, and that's not limited to the draft.

Fowler: That third option is tempting, Dan. The veteran QB carousel could spin wildly from March to July. We know Rodgers' contract has a clean out after 2021, with a $46.1 million cap hit vs. $26.8 million in dead cap. If Watson isn't on a new team by the trade deadline, he will inevitably be headed somewhere at the start of the new league year, as we reported last week. A divorce from Seattle also feels like a real possibility for Wilson.

But the problem is, Philly doesn't seem like a natural fit for any of these players. Wilson has outlined four teams he would join, and Philly isn't on that list. Many teams believe Rodgers is partial to the West Coast, though he hasn't clarified that himself. And I'm not hearing strong buzz that Watson is clamoring to be in Philly. Maybe the Eagles' draft capital can force a team's hand.

A cleaner option, and the one I'd probably follow, is the traditional path of building through the draft. This isn't considered a stout QB class, but if there's a guy Philly loves, it can use the draft picks to secure him -- or stay patient and let him fall to you.

Graziano: Yeah, all good points. But my thinking is just kind of rooted in the idea that the landscape shifts a lot between now and March. Watson may not want to go to Philly, but what if it comes down to that or staying in Houston? Would he change his mind? So I just think the way to look at this is that anything can happen, and that trove of picks leaves the Eagles in position to take advantage of whatever does.

If you had to pick an MVP through Week 6 who wasn't a quarterback, who would you pick?

Fowler: I have to say Browns defensive end Myles Garrett. Lots of choices here, and Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs is tempting. But that interception total (seven through six games) is awfully hard to keep up. Meanwhile, Garrett is on pace for 20-plus sacks (eight so far), and it feels like he'll get there. No one can replace Aaron Donald, but Garrett has the dominant traits to merit conversation about the next Aaron Donald-like player up front. He's the guy, along with Pittsburgh outside linebacker T.J. Watt. I went defense, but surely there's a receiver or running back on your mind, right, Dan?

Graziano: The only thing in my mind when I read this question was a 260-pound running back with a stiff ponytail sticking out of the back of his helmet. The Week 6 Buffalo-Tennessee game made me even more certain of my position. The Titans' Derrick Henry is the most unstoppable force in the game right now. He influences the way defenders line up, the way they tackle, the way they feel about themselves when they look in the mirror at the end of the day. On 162 carries, Henry already has 783 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns -- and he already has the second-most receiving yards in a season for his career with 138.

Fowler: Yeah, I thought the same when watching Monday night -- Henry really is the pick. I like to go defense when given the chance, but it's wild what Henry is doing at a time of high volatility for running backs due to injuries and pass-first offenses. As shelf-lives get shorter, Henry gets better and stronger. The Bills have a good defense that had no answer for him.

Graziano: Yeah, Henry is a massive part of the reason you go for it on fourth-and-1 on the 3-yard line with 20 seconds left and down three points -- you don't want to leave the game up to a lost coin toss that could put the ball in his hands and leave you without another possession. Tennessee doesn't have the top-end win-loss record that you usually want for your MVP candidates, but that dude is totally different.

Fowler: A few receivers are making a compelling case, too, including an unlikely name vying for a triple crown of receptions, yards and touchdowns: the Rams' Cooper Kupp. He has 46 catches for 653 yards and seven touchdowns.

Graziano: Yeah, Kupp has been amazing. And how about Dallas' Diggs? If he has at least one interception in every game all year, he'd be a shoo-in for Defensive Player of the Year at the very least. And your Garrett pick is a good one if we're thinking defense, as is Watt, who may just keep the Steelers in contention all year.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 7?

Graziano: Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. It's a brutal fantasy bye week, with Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence and Ben Roethlisberger all off. If you need a QB, the Browns' defense is allowing the third-most fantasy points to the position, and Teddy Two Gloves just threw for 334 and three touchdowns against the Raiders on Sunday. Fire him up on Thursday night against the banged-up Browns and pocket some points ahead of the weekend.

Fowler: Browns-Broncos is a fascinating matchup because both teams are talented but underachieving of late. But my pick is Washington running back J.D. McKissic. This Antonio Gibson shin injury has a chance to linger, and McKissic cleaned up in garbage time last week with 110 yards on 16 touches -- and most importantly, he had eight catches. The Packers' defense ranks middle-of-the-road against the run and pass, so there should be a path to robust yards for the versatile back.

Graziano: McKissic is a good call for sure. Washington uses him as a pass-catcher, but I know the coaches trust him as a between-the-tackles runner, too. The workload split between him and Gibson has played out this way because it has worked, not because Washington thinks one guy couldn't do the other's job. Gibson has been trying to play through pain, but if he has to cut back his workload, I do believe McKissic would be the guy you'd want for fantasy.

Fowler: Taking a chance on Colts receiver Zach Pascal could pay off, too. The Colts are beat up at receiver with Parris Campbell (foot) out and T.Y. Hilton (quad) uncertain to play. Pascal got at least five targets in each of the season's first five games. He got one target last week, but given injuries, he'd be prepared to step into a starting role alongside Michael Pittman Jr. And Carson Wentz is heating up with 625 yards on 55 attempts over the past two weeks.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop for Week 7?

Fowler: Raiders receiver Henry Ruggs III. He has become a viable option for Derek Carr and the Raiders in Year 2, but 22.3 yards per catch is tough to sustain. Ruggs is third in Raiders targets (32) behind Darren Waller (53) and Hunter Renfrow (43), two players who are coming off modest performances against Denver. I'm thinking Carr will get those two going against Philadelphia, a top-10 defense against wide receivers.

Graziano: I'm going Bengals QB Joe Burrow. He has been money in the bank this year, with multiple touchdown passes in each game he has played so far. But after seeing what the Ravens did to Justin Herbert and the Chargers on Sunday, this Burrow believer is a bit worried about the Bengals' young star Sunday in Baltimore. It may be a day to try to rely on Joe Mixon, given how tough Baltimore has been on fantasy QBs and WRs this year. Heck, it's probably a day to try for a monster defensive performance and hope you can find a way to win 13-10.

Fowler: Tough task for Burrow. The Saints-Seahawks matchup also has me leery from a fantasy perspective. Seattle should rely heavily on the running game, but Alex Collins, who was great on Sunday night in Pittsburgh, is dealing with a hip issue, and Rashaad Penny is getting activated but must knock off serious rust. Saints QB Jameis Winston still doesn't have a go-to receiver downfield. The options are scarce, though he does have a rapport with wide receiver Tre'Quan Smith, who could return this week.

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• The Minnesota Vikings see a direct correlation between Kirk Cousins' late-game heroics and a more aggressive demeanor the team has wanted to see for years. Cousins -- who orchestrated back-to-back game-winning drives over Detroit and Carolina -- has been less polite and a little more nasty behind the scenes. Coaches have stressed to him a simple message: It's OK to be mad. Recently, he got upset about something with the offense and voiced his frustration loudly. The response was it's about time. Minnesota figures that the more ownership Cousins has over the offense, the more confidence he exudes in the two-minute drill.

• Early last week, Las Vegas Raiders officials spoke to the team's staff in an open forum as well as individually. Staff and players were offered personal time to process things regarding Jon Gruden's emails and subsequent departure from the team, and no one had to do anything they didn't want to do. One source classified the week as " just a lot of head-shaking," with coaches and scouts wanting to move past this quickly because they considered this a "Jon issue," and the Raiders wanted to focus on their team. There's still anger about not only how wrong Gruden's emails were, but how they negatively impacted the lives of others. The Raiders are legitimately excited about interim coach Rich Bisaccia, who has earned the assistant head coach role at each of his last five stops. Several former NFL star players, from Philip Rivers to John Lynch, have lobbied for him to get a head coaching job in the past. Now is his chance.

• The Arizona Cardinals are optimistic head coach Kliff Kingsbury (COVID-19 protocol) will be available for Sunday's game against Houston. He would need two consecutive negative COVID-19 tests at least 24 hours apart. But if he remains out, the team likes Kyler Murray's ownership of the offense. On the Cardinals' third offensive play of the game against Cleveland, Murray checked out of a pass play for a run play, which Chase Edmonds took 40 yards.

• The Seattle Seahawks' short-term plan at quarterback is to give Geno Smith some runway -- at least a few games -- to find his footing and lead the offense, but that "anything is possible" if the offense struggles, per a source. Yes, the Seahawks have looked into free agent Cam Newton. At this time, I expect the Seahawks to stand pat on him. But a loss to New Orleans would drop Seattle to 2-5, and the team will have to think about salvaging the season at that point. Make no mistake, though -- the team has been pleased with Smith's growth as a quarterback in recent years and believes it can win games with him. (The Seahawks did add Jacob Eason as more depth on Wednesday.)

Graziano

• The Cleveland Browns are not in good shape for Thursday night's game against Denver. Running back Kareem Hunt is out several weeks with a calf injury. Running back Nick Chubb's calf injury is less severe, but as of Tuesday, it did not sound as though the Browns were optimistic that he could be cleared to play Thursday. If they were playing a Sunday game this week, it's possible Chubb would have had enough time to get ready, and that obviously gives them some hope that he could be back in time for their Week 8 game against the Steelers. D'Ernest Johnson and change-of-pace back Demetric Felton appear likely to split backfield duties Thursday night. And injury questions remain about quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and both starting tackles. Not a great week for the Browns to have the Thursday game.

• "Optimistic" was the word coming out of the Dallas Cowboys' camp Monday regarding quarterback Dak Prescott, who suffered a calf injury on the final play of Sunday's game. But the Cowboys -- who are on bye this week -- aren't 100% certain they'll have their starting QB for their Week 8 game against the Vikings. They got encouraging results from the tests they ran on Prescott's leg Monday, hence the optimism, but the plan as of now is for Prescott to rest the leg as much as possible this week and then reconvene with the team at the start of next week to see where things stand. Prescott was projecting confidence postgame, and the team is sincerely optimistic, but they won't know for sure until early next week.

• The Kansas City Chiefs looked like themselves in the second half against Washington on Sunday, but all of their issues are not necessarily solved. They rebuilt their offensive line this season, and they're happy with their interior, where veteran Joe Thuney is playing with rookies Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. But they're having problems at the tackle spots, and they believe that's part of the reason quarterback Patrick Mahomes' footwork has suffered. The Chiefs traded for Orlando Brown Jr. before the season, thinking he'd make the transition from right tackle to left, but so far he hasn't proven to be lockdown there. And they've already made a switch at right tackle from Lucas Niang to Mike Remmers. Kansas City will be on the lookout for tackle help at the trade deadline, but that's not a position where you generally find quality help available midseason.