NFL free agency remains as unpredictable as the end of Seahawks games.
Teams are conflicted about giving big money to a player whose original team didn't try hard enough to re-sign him. "Giving 'A' money to 'B+' players" is a familiar phrase among some scouts and execs who prefer building through the draft. Taking on a player who has been in another system for four years comes with inherent risk.
There are plenty of success stories -- with delayed gratification of at least a season, in some cases. Take Eagles defensive tackle Javon Hargrave and Bears pass-rusher Robert Quinn, big-money players who shrugged off poor 2020 seasons in their new spots to combine for 11.5 sacks through the first six weeks of Year 2.
Hargrave is a byproduct of a team drafting too well. He priced himself out of Pittsburgh because the Steelers had to pay All-Pro Cam Heyward. Same for pass-rusher Bud Dupree, who is in Tennessee because the Steelers had to pay T.J. Watt. There are numerous such examples, and many teams are more than happy with their investments back in March as several 2021 free agents are producing in a big way.
After talking to execs, coaches and scouts this week, let's give out early grades for 10 high-profile free-agent acquisitions, plus four outstanding value pickups. These 10 aren't necessarily the biggest deals from last March, but each player comes up often in conversation when I'm making calls. The full picture won't come for a few years on these players, but consider this a progress report through the first one-third of the season.
Grades for 10 NFL free-agent signings
Trey Hendrickson, DE, Cincinnati Bengals
Terms: Four years, $60 million
Grade: A
Instead of extending capable edge rusher Carl Lawson, the Bengals let him sign with the Jets and gave big money to Hendrickson, whom some regarded as a one-hit wonder coming into free agency. Hendrickson had been a role player for three years with the Saints before breaking out with 13.5 sacks opposite Cam Jordan in 2020.
Skeptics wondered if a talented Saints line helped inflate Hendrickson's numbers. The Bengals saw a durable, relentless player with explosion. The result: Hendrickson's 5.5 sacks through six games are tied for eighth in the league, and his 24% pass rush win rate ranks 11th among edge defenders.
"Trey Hendrickson has been a pleasant surprise," an NFC exec said. "Saw him more as a situational guy in the past, but he's put it all together this year. Not only is he getting sacks, but he's also creating disruption and sacks for his teammates."
An example of the respect Hendrickson now garners: Both Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur sought out Hendrickson to applaud his play in the Week 5 Green Bay-Cincinnati thriller that Green Bay won in overtime.
Matt Judon, OLB, New England Patriots
Terms: Four years, $54.5 million
Grade: A
Judon fits right in with the Patriots and a Bill Belichick defense that prioritizes versatility. With 6.5 sacks, Judon is easily on pace for the first double-digit-sack season of his career. He can handle run-stop duties or line up in different spots, even playing a handful of snaps as a defensive tackle.
"I'm partial to complete players, and that's him," an AFC personnel evaluator said. "He can do really anything you need, which is perfect for Bill."
Judon faced different expectations due to his pedigree as a two-time Pro Bowler. He was already well-established, but he has lived up to the billing. And though some execs criticized his motor at times in Baltimore, that doesn't seem to be an issue in New England.
Corey Linsley, C, Los Angeles Chargers
Terms: Five years, $62.5 million
Grade: A-
The salary-cap-strapped Packers weren't going to pay their top two free agents. So, they chose to pay one: running back Aaron Jones. That made one of the game's best centers in the game available, and the Chargers quickly pounced on the first day of free agency.
The Chargers rave about Linsley's stabilizing play publicly and privately. Among his intangibles yielding results: L.A. is one of six NFL teams without a delay of game penalty, and the offense posted a 27.6 OEPA (offensive expected points added) in Week 5 against an imposing Browns pass rush.
"He's not imposing physically, but he does everything right -- really smart player," an AFC exec said. "He's a good center for a young quarterback to keep everything solid up front."
Linsley entered Week 6 with a solid 78.7 grade from Pro Football Focus. The Chargers' two big offensive-line signings worked out -- guard Matt Feiler has been solid -- and rookie first-round pick Rashawn Slater looks like a stalwart at left tackle.
Jameis Winston, QB, New Orleans Saints
Terms: One year, $5.5 million (worth up to $12 million)
Grade: B+
Winston emphasized decision-making with his second chance with New Orleans, and so far he's avoiding the turnovers that plagued him in Tampa Bay. With 892 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and three interceptions through five games, he ranks 10th in Total QBR (61.3), between Justin Herbert and Derek Carr. Hard to complain about that.
There have been ups and downs. The offense's 128 total yards against Carolina in Week 2 -- the fewest of the Sean Payton era -- were particularly curious. The Saints are being conservative with Winston, who is attempting 23.2 passes per game, the fewest among quarterbacks with at least five starts. But the Winston-Payton marriage is off to a respectable start. The Saints just don't have enough talent on the edge with receivers Michael Thomas and Tre'Quan Smith out injured.
"Jameis isn't perfect, but there's a lot of ability there, some of it untapped, with big-time arm talent," an NFC scout said. "He might never be a low, low interception guy like the top guys, but he's clearly working to improve the impulse to force something that's not there. And Sean's feel for the game will only continue to help him."
It's still too early to say whether the Saints will commit to Winston long-term, but he'll be one of the top options when they assess the QB market in 2022.
J.J. Watt, DE, Arizona Cardinals
Terms: Two years, $28 million
Grade: B
Released by the Texans in February, Watt had only modest production through the first five weeks of the season -- zero sacks, four tackles for loss, one forced fumble -- before a huge Week 6 against Cleveland.
He took over against the Browns, with a strip-sack of Baker Mayfield, a pass deflection and a blown-up backfield that set up a teammate for a sack. At 32, Watt isn't matching his three-time Defensive Player of the Year days, but he is making his money with disruptive snaps. He ranked second in the league in pass rush win rate among interior defensive linemen through Week 5.
"[Watt is] not the same guy he was, but he will make a few splash plays a game to make you remember he can still go," said an NFL offensive coach who game-planned for Watt this season.
The 6-0 Cardinals are one of the biggest surprises of the season, and Watt's steady play has helped to key the defensive improvement.
Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith, TEs, New England Patriots
Terms: Three years, $37.5 million (Henry) and four years, $50 million (Smith)
Grade: B-
Early in the Week 6 matchup with Dallas, New England was using its tight end acquisitions in versatile ways that you'd expect from a well-paid duo. Smith lined up wide to take a screen pass 9 yards to set up a rushing touchdown. Henry worked off play-action to shake safety Malik Hooker for an outstretched touchdown over the middle.
By game's end, however, the two had been targeted just four times, with Henry catching two passes for 25 yards and Smith snagging one for 9 yards. The duo is averaging 9.7 yards per catch on 365 total yards. They've been on the field together for 109 snaps -- of 362 total -- and the Patriots are averaging just 4.7 yards per play when they're in the lineup.
"They'd probably like a little more production, but if you ask them I bet they are pleased," an AFC exec said. "Just because of the options they give the offense. [Smith], they've used him as an H-back, off play-action."
An NFC exec added that Smith's average of 7.8 yards per catch isn't good enough for a player of his yards-after-catch capabilities in Tennessee.
"They probably need more from two of their most talented players," an NFC exec said.
Corey Davis, WR, New York Jets
Terms: Three years, $37.5 million
Grade: C+
Davis has had a few rough outings, including two drops in a Week 3 loss to the Broncos, but he also has produced two games with 90-plus receiving yards and is on pace for more than 1,000 yards and nearly 10 touchdowns.
"He's more of a good No. 2 receiver and the Jets have to treat him as a No. 1 because of the talent on the roster, but they are paying like him a good 2," an AFC scout said. "So, overall, I think they are happy with what they have, about as expected."
Davis has 36 targets and the next-closest teammate (Braxton Berrios) has 23, so it's clear the Jets are trying to pump up Davis. He can still do more to help the league's 30th-ranked passing offense, however.
Kenny Golladay, WR, New York Giants
Terms: Four years, $72 million
Grade: C
The feeling is that Golladay has been just OK. His 16.6 yards per catch are in line with his career averages, but the Giants are paying him big money to find the end zone, and they are still waiting. He has just one 100-yard game, and a hyperextended knee kept him out of the Giants' Week 6 loss to the Rams.
When Golladay is at his best, he's a red zone demon who can go over the top for scores. In his last full season, in 2019, he had 11 touchdowns and led the league with targets inside the 10-yard line (13). Golladay has just 17 catches on 31 targets so far, and he's pacing for well under 1,000 yards.
"Golladay has been hurt and when he's been out there, he doesn't seem to have a rapport with Daniel Jones," an NFC exec said.
There is plenty of time to develop that. But with the Giants sitting at 1-5 and dealing with several injuries on offense, they could use a high-paid catalyst sooner than later.
William Jackson III, CB, Washington Football Team
Terms: Three years, $40.5 million
Grade: C-
Jackson became one of the highest-paid corners in free agency because of his ability to play press-man coverage with physicality. The former Bengals No. 1 corner is still adapting to Washington, which, under coordinator Jack Del Rio, plays zone coverage with a mix of man.
On 37 targets as the nearest defender in coverage, according to NFL Next Gen Stats tracking, Jackson has allowed 19 receptions for three touchdowns and 265 yards with an interception. Pro Football Focus gives him a poor 46.8 grade, and he leads all cornerbacks with five penalties through six weeks. Tackling has been an issue at times.
"He's been OK, not playing to the level of where he was paid, but playing decently," an NFC exec said. "Will probably never be a [top-tier] guy. Good player but doesn't have the elite skill set for that."
The Washington defense is allowing 6.0 yards per play (24th in the league) and 7.7 net yards per pass (25th) on the way to a disappointing 2-4 start.
Another free-agent corner is off to a better start with his new team: Former Seattle defender Shaquill Griffin, whom Jacksonville signed for $40 million, has allowed 21 catches for 240 yards and zero touchdowns on 33 targets as the nearest defender.
Bud Dupree, OLB, Tennessee Titans
Terms: Five years, $82.5 million
Grade: Incomplete
Dupree has failed to earn high marks with four tackles and two quarterback hits in three games played. But the Titans were thinking long-term with Dupree, who needed time to recover from a torn ACL suffered in December when he played for the Steelers.
He had hoped to be at full strength by Week 1, but he missed Weeks 3-5 and has only 132 snaps this season. That's why it's tough to give him a grade so far.
"I just think he came back too early," an NFC scout said. "Usually players coming off an ACL aren't the same until Year 2, and that can be especially true for pass-rushers."
Best early-value signings
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Buffalo Bills: A crisp stat line of 24-413-4 through the first six games makes his one-year, $6 million deal feel like a clearance-rack bargain. The Bills are thrilled with his professionalism and instant connection with Josh Allen.
Haason Reddick, DE, Carolina Panthers: Reddick turned a one-year, $6 million deal into major sack production, with 6.5 through six weeks. The 27-year-old could play himself into a big deal next March.
Damontae Kazee and Jayron Kearse, DBs, Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys got Kazee and Kearse for a combined $2.254 million on one-year deals. The two have a total of 39 tackles, 5 pass breakups, a forced fumble and an interception, playing more than 700 snaps. Malik Hooker, also on a vet minimum, has come on in recent weeks, as well.
Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Cincinnati Bengals: His three-year, $21.75 million deal is looking good for the Bengals. Awuzie's Pro Football Focus grade is a solid 77.8. The Bengals are happy with all of their defensive free-agent additions, including slot corner Mike Hilton and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi.