After weeks of hype, Tom Brady's return to Foxborough to play the New England Patriots is now firmly in our rearview mirror. But while the Patriots might now recede from the national stage, Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers aren't going anywhere. They rank third in ESPN's FPI and are still thought to be among the top Super Bowl contenders. Brady is currently eighth in QBR and having another phenomenal season in conventional stats. He's second in passing yards and third in passing touchdowns through four weeks.
Brady's phenomenal play this season has some wondering if he is playing the best football of his entire career. Could that possibly be true at age 44? It's not enough to just look at Brady's statistics. We also have to consider his teammates. We know that the Buccaneers have a talented roster. But how talented is this team at wide receiver compared to Brady's past Patriots teams? How talented along the offensive line? What about running back and tight end, to round out Brady's supporting cast?
So I went back and took a look at 20 years of Tom Brady offenses, starting with the Super Bowl XXXVI champions in New England and up to last season's Super Bowl LV champions in Tampa Bay. Which team had Brady's best supporting cast? Is Brady truly better now than ever before?
He doesn't have the best stats of his career, certainly. Brady's QBR was 66.0 last year and is 61.4 so far this year, far behind his best years, such as 2007 (with 87.0 QBR), 2016 (79.4) and 2010 (79.1). If Brady were truly at his best now, but not putting up his best stats, that would be an indicator that his supporting cast is lacking compared to past years. As you'll see, that's far from the truth.
We're going to look at some stats in doing this analysis, but we can't depend entirely on the stats because so many of them are wrapped up in Brady's own performance. Brady's abilities and tendencies affect the numbers for his receivers, his offensive linemen and even his running backs. So, we're looking here not only at stats but also at subjective judgment of these players by analysts of the time (including Pro Bowl and All-Pro voters).
Here is my list of Tom Brady's five best supporting casts (not including the current season), followed by the best defensive teams that Brady has played with:
5. 2017 New England Patriots
The presence of one player lifts this group above the other supporting casts of Brady's final Patriots seasons: Brandin Cooks. Cooks gave Brady his best outside No. 1 receiver since Randy Moss. Cooks caught 65 passes for 1,082 yards and seven touchdowns. In Football Outsiders' advanced stats, Cooks came out with 258 DYAR, 13th in the NFL that year and the highest total for a Patriots receiver since Wes Welker left town after the 2012 season. Cooks was good enough in his one Patriots season to put this unit at No. 5 despite the lack of Julian Edelman, who missed the season with a torn ACL. Danny Amendola took Edelman's slot position, Chris Hogan was the other starting outside receiver and of course Rob Gronkowski made first-team All-Pro yet again.
The 2017 Patriots also had an excellent running game, thanks to great blocking. The offensive line led the league in adjusted line yards, which measures runs by different distances in order to separate the importance of blocking from what backs do in the open field. Plus, fullback James Develin was chosen for the Pro Bowl. It was Nate Solder's last year at left tackle, with Marcus Cannon at right tackle and the young but already established interior line of Joe Thuney, David Andrews and Shaq Mason. They helped Dion Lewis average 5.0 yards per carry.
4. 2010 New England Patriots
People now forget just how powerful the Patriots' offense was in 2010, in part because their playoff run was cut short in a shocking divisional-round upset by the New York Jets. Football Outsiders' DVOA rates this as the second-best offense of the past 35 years, trailing only the 2007 Patriots. This team scored more than 30 points in 11 games, including eight straight to end the regular season. Yet, looking closely at the roster, it's hard to put this supporting cast ahead of the one Brady had the following season.
It would be different if 2010 had given us a chance to see Randy Moss and Gronkowski share the field for the whole season. But Moss was unhappy in the final year of his contract, and the Patriots traded him to Minnesota after just four games. Then another trade with Seattle brought Deion Branch back to town. Branch and Brandon Tate were the starting receivers alongside Wes Welker. BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead had great years at running back, but they got great blocking -- as the Patriots ranked first in adjusted line yards. Logan Mankins was first-team All-Pro at left guard. This was the final year in Foxborough for right guard Steve Neal and right tackle Sebastian Vollmer.
3. 2011 New England Patriots
This was the pinnacle of the Patriots' two-tight end offense. Gronkowski, in his second NFL season, had the greatest season of any tight end ever according to Football Outsiders' DYAR stats. In conventional numbers, he put up 90 catches for 1,327 receiving yards and 17 touchdowns. (Actually, it was 18, including one that was technically a rushing touchdown because the pass went backward.)
But a legendary two-tight end offense needs two tight ends, and Aaron Hernandez also put up 910 receiving yards with seven receiving touchdowns. Meanwhile, Welker was the top wide receiver with a league-leading 122 catches, 1,569 yards and 9 touchdowns. Branch was the other starting wide receiver, along with Chad Johnson in his final NFL season. Gronkowski and Welker were both first-team All-Pros.
The Patriots also had a strong offensive line in 2011. This was the only year that veteran right guard Brian Waters played for the Patriots, and he was chosen for the Pro Bowl. So was the left guard, Mankins. It was veteran Matt Light's final year at left tackle, and his heir apparent, first-round pick Nate Solder, played as a rookie at right tackle. Despite strong blocking -- the Patriots were second in adjusted line yards -- main running back Green-Ellis averaged only 3.7 yards per carry. But his backups, Stevan Ridley and Woodhead, combined for 4.8 yards per carry. Gronkowski's development into an all-time great and the presence of Waters are enough for me to put this supporting cast ahead of the 2010 team.
2. 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Raw numbers might not endorse putting the Buccaneers so high on the list, but consider how these players are judged by scouts and front offices around the league. Mike Evans has been a star ever since the Buccaneers chose him with the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft. Chris Godwin quickly outplayed his third-round draft status and is regarded as a top talent who would be the No. 1 receiving option on a number of other teams. Antonio Brown's off-field issues can't be ignored, but he's a player who ranked as the No. 1 receiver in the league by Football Outsiders' DYAR metric three times. Gronkowski might not be the force he was at his peak, but he is still one of the top 10 all-around tight ends in the NFL.
The Buccaneers also have one of the league's top offensive lines. Left guard Ali Marpet and rookie right tackle Tristan Wirfs both received numerous All-Pro votes. Center Ryan Jensen is viewed as one of the best in the league by offensive line experts. Left tackle Donovan Smith and right guard Alex Cappa are the weak links, but neither one is particularly below average.
1. 2007 New England Patriots
The 2007 Patriots are often considered the greatest offense in NFL history, so it makes sense that they would top a list of Brady's best supporting casts. But the gap between the 2007 Patriots and the other teams here is smaller than you might realize. For example, compare the Patriots to our No. 2 team, the 2020 Buccaneers. With all due respect to Mike Evans, the WR1 spot is no contest: Randy Moss was one of the greatest receivers of all time having one of the greatest receiving seasons of all time for the Patriots. The WR2 spot is closer. Chris Godwin and Wes Welker are so different in style that comparing them is near impossible. Welker had better numbers, both standard and advanced, so that spot probably also goes to the 2007 Patriots.
However, run down the rest of the skill positions, and the 2020 Bucs look better. Antonio Brown over Donte' Stallworth at WR3 isn't really close. You would easily take Gronkowski and Cameron Brate over Benjamin Watson and Kyle Brady at tight end. Laurence Maroney vs. Ronald Jones II is probably a draw, as neither was/is considered one of the top running backs in the league. The 2007 Patriots get the advantage at running back because they also had a top pass-catching back, Kevin Faulk. The Buccaneers didn't get one of those until this season.
The offensive lines are also very close. You would definitely take the Patriots' Light over Donovan Smith at left tackle, but you would also take Tampa Bay's Tristan Wirfs over Nick Kaczur at right tackle. Both interiors are highly regarded at left guard (Mankins vs. Ali Marpet) and center (Dan Koppen vs. Ryan Jensen) and solid but unspectacular at right guard (Neal vs. Alex Cappa). The difference in judging the lines might be that the Patriots did seem to be more highly regarded by those who voted for awards. Light was first-team All-Pro, while Mankins and Koppen both made the Pro Bowl. Surprisingly, none of the Tampa Bay linemen earned either honor last season.
In the end, the 2007 Patriots vs. the 2020 Buccaneers comes down to prime Moss and Welker being more important than past-prime Brown and Gronkowski. But again, it's closer than you might expect. Yet the offensive numbers are not anywhere near that close. Once we adjust for the fact that there was less offense in general 14 years ago, the 2007 Patriots were 44.1% more efficient than average, according to DVOA. The 2010 Patriots were 42.8% more efficient than average. The 2020 Buccaneers were only 19.8% more efficient than average, third in the league last year. Compare both the offensive numbers and then the supporting casts, it becomes clear: the 2007 season was primarily superior because Brady himself was playing so well. Same goes with the 2010 and 2011 seasons.
As great as Tom Brady is playing -- and he's arguably one of the top five quarterbacks in the NFL right now -- he is not playing the best football of his life. Brady's peak came in his early thirties between 2007 and 2011, not at age 44. But one similarity between then and now is that he has great teammates to help lift his game.
Defense and special teams
Here are the best Brady teams aside from offense, based on Football Outsiders' DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) numbers with rank that year. We're listing six teams because we know that readers will be specifically curious about the 16-0 Patriots of 2007.
1. 2019 Patriots: -25.2% DVOA defense (1) and 1.2% DVOA special teams (11). The year Brady had his worst supporting cast on offense was also the year he shared the locker room with the best defense of his career. In fact, the 2019 Patriots ranked among the best defenses ever tracked by DVOA until their shocking Week 17 loss to the 5-11 Dolphins.
2. 2003 Patriots: -18.8% DVOA defense (2) and 0.8% DVOA special teams (16). Hall of Famer Ty Law and frequent Hall of Fame finalist Richard Seymour both made first-team All-Pro this season, as did Rodney Harrison in his first year with the Patriots.
3. 2020 Buccaneers: -14.6% DVOA defense (5) and -2.9% DVOA special teams (26). Despite all the defensive talent on this team, Jason Pierre-Paul was the only Bucs defender named to the Pro Bowl roster. While the Tampa defense is strong from front to back, last year had the worst special teams unit that Brady ever played with.
4. 2006 Patriots: -8.5% DVOA defense (7) and 2.9% DVOA special teams (8). Seymour was the only defender on this team to make the Pro Bowl for a defense anchored by veterans Junior Seau (37 years old), Tedy Bruschi (33), Mike Vrabel (31) and Harrison (34).
5. 2004 Patriots: -10.4% DVOA defense (6) and 0.2% DVOA special teams (16). The Patriots had one of the NFL's best defenses even though injuries at the cornerback position left them starting undrafted rookie Randall Gay and giving serious playing time to converted wide receiver Troy Brown.
6. 2007 Patriots: -5.7% DVOA defense (10) and 3.6% DVOA special teams (7). Vrabel and Asante Samuel Sr. were first-team All-Pros, but overall this defense was not as good as some of the other Patriots teams -- despite the undefeated regular season.