In thinking about possible NFL Most Valuable Player candidates, I realized how different the 2021 season looks from last year's campaign. This is a season for parity. At this time a year ago, six teams had started 4-0. All six made the playoffs, unsurprisingly. This season, we have just one 4-0 team, and of all the candidates we would have thrown out as potential 4-0 starters before the season, it's the Arizona Cardinals. The last time we saw just one team standing undefeated after Week 4 was 2017, when it was the Alex Smith-led Chiefs getting off to a hot start.
What happens in September (and the beginning of October) matters, but it can get lost in the shuffle of a full season. Go back to my quarter-season awards from 2020 and the top three was instructive. No. 3 was Josh Allen, who was coming off what looked like the hottest four-game run of his career. He kept that up and was a legitimate candidate by the end of the season. No. 2 was Aaron Rodgers, who eventually won the award. No. 1 was Russell Wilson. It was impossible to talk about him last fall without bringing up how he had never received an MVP vote before being the favorite for the first half of the season. After his second-half decline, Wilson failed to get a vote in the 2020 race, either.
Let's sort through the candidates for the NFL's MVP through four weeks. This isn't who I think would win the award if it went to a vote this afternoon -- or who is likely to win at the end of the season -- but my thoughts on who should win the award if we were deciding it after four games.
Jump to a section:
Three non-QBs to watch
QBs on the outside looking in
Ranking five early favorites
Are there any non-quarterbacks who deserve consideration?
While we've seen running backs, pass-rushers and even a kicker win MVP before, the league's collective shift toward passing has mostly turned this into an award for best quarterback. Thirteen of the past 14 winners have been quarterbacks, with Adrian Peterson's 2,097-rushing yard season in 2012 the lone exception.
From what I can tell, merely being the best player at a position outside of quarterback doesn't qualify guys for serious MVP consideration. We've seen otherworldly seasons from Aaron Donald and J.J. Watt in recent years without either of those future Hall of Famers coming close to winning the trophy. It would take something truly special and likely record-setting to get a non-quarterback on the podium.
Through four games, I can think of three non-quarterback candidates who might get some attention:
Browns defensive end Myles Garrett leads the league with six sacks through four games, including a 4.5-sack effort against a hapless Bears front in that Week 3 blowout. The single-game concentration obviously tells us that it might be tough for him to keep this sort of sack rate up in the weeks to come without the Bears on the schedule, but Garrett has been consistently productive ever since entering the league. Since being drafted No. 1 overall in 2017, he has averaged 0.88 sacks per game, which prorates out to approximately 15 sacks over a 17-game season. He's not far enough ahead of the competition to get on the ballot here, but it's a start.
To have a shot at winning MVP in the real world, Garrett needs to set the single-season sack record, which would require him to top Michael Strahan's 22.5 sacks from 2001. Given that Garrett would need only 16.5 sacks over the ensuing 13 games of 2021, that's not out of the question, but even that alone probably doesn't get him the MVP. He needs to blow away the competition and the old record. Thirty sacks would do it, although that's bordering on impossible. Twenty-five sacks would be a minimum, and Garrett would probably need to win the Browns a game or two on national television to help his chances.
Titans running back Derrick Henry is really the only superstar running back living up to expectations after a difficult first quarter of the season. Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook have been hurt, Alvin Kamara's role in the passing game has disappeared, Ezekiel Elliott has been inconsistent and Saquon Barkley wasn't 100 percent early in the year. Aaron Jones is the closest competition to Henry, but the Tennessee star has 510 rushing yards, 148 ahead of anybody else. Is that the sort of dominance we're looking for?
If you're a traditionalist, maybe. Henry is carrying the Titans on offense, but he has been more about volume than anything else through four games. He has 113 carries, 30 more than anybody else. With that volume, he has added minus-5.3 expected points to Tennessee's offense as a runner, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which doesn't love him. Henry has produced 26 rushing first downs in an offense in which Next Gen Stats would have expected him to produce ... 26 first downs. Its estimate is that Henry has gained only 39 more rushing yards than a similar back would have picked up given the same touches.
Henry's ability to shoulder that workload is special, but it's hard to argue that he's efficient when a back such as Jonathan Taylor has produced nearly as many first downs (20) on nearly half the number of carries (58). The Titans rank second in win probability added through the ground -- behind only the Ravens -- but they're 10th in the same category on offense as a whole and 20th in points per possession. Henry is a special player and doing all he can to help the cause, but that's not enough to move the needle relative to quarterbacks.
Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs would be my pick of the non-quarterbacks. Being able to flip the field and earn a possession for your team is extremely valuable, and Diggs has done that five times in four games with interceptions. The last time that happened was in 2009, in a league in which quarterbacks threw interceptions 3.1% of the time. The interception rate is down around 2.1% this season, in part because Diggs plays only once per week.
Next Gen Stats also paints Diggs as head and shoulders above the competition at corner. When he has been the nearest defender to a targeted receiver, he has allowed opposing quarterbacks only 11-of-25 passing for 208 yards with those five picks. Passers are completing 44% of those throws against an expected completion percentage of 62.4%. His work on those passes has generated 24.8 expected points for the Cowboys; the next-most productive corner in the league, Green Bay rookie Eric Stokes, is at 12.5 points. To put that in some context, by expected points added (EPA), Diggs has almost been as valuable to the Cowboys as Dak Prescott has been as a passer, given that the franchise quarterback has generated 31.0 EPA across his four starts.
Of course, Prescott also adds value as a runner, and he's fifth on the passing EPA charts for quarterbacks through four games. I'd probably have Diggs just outside the top five in the MVP vote, which speaks to how hard it is for a cornerback to compete here. If he somehow kept this up and finished the season with 20-plus interceptions, he would almost certainly win the actual award, although there would be a federal investigation into how and why teams kept throwing the football in his direction.
The quarterbacks on the fringe
Let's move on to the quarterbacks. We can leave out anybody who hasn't started and finished four games, which costs Broncos quarterback Teddy Bridgewater his spot; he might have been toward the bottom of the top 10 if he hadn't gotten injured Sunday. We can eliminate a few would-be candidates from the pool quickly ...
Josh Allen has looked better over the past two weeks, particularly in the blowout win over Washington, but the Bills quarterback wasn't good in Weeks 1 and 2 and hasn't been as accurate as he was last season. Allen's completion percentage (63.5%), yards per attempt (6.8) and completion percentage over expectation (minus-0.7%) are down considerably from his 2020 highs, and each of those marks is below the league average. His impact as a runner has helped, with Next Gen Stats crediting him for generating 15.0 EPA with his feet, but the same site also has him with just 7.1 EPA as a passer through four games.
Aaron Rodgers continues to make the same immaculate throws we saw a year ago, but the disastrous start the Packers quarterback had against the Saints in the opener makes up a quarter of his seasonal production so far. Rodgers ranks fifth in the league in Total QBR from Week 2 on, having thrown eight touchdown passes without a pick and averaged 9.6 adjusted yards per attempt, but one stinker is enough to sideline his chances. The 2020 MVP will look better with that game further in the rearview mirror, just as he did when the Buccaneers loss from last season faded into the past amid week after week of great performances.
Tom Brady's numbers are dragged down by a difficult performance in Sunday's narrow victory over the Patriots. The Bucs have Brady throwing the ball a ton, with the 44-year-old leading the league in both pass completions and attempts, but he hasn't always been as efficient as he has been in years past. He is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt, right around league average. His 64.7% completion percentage, meanwhile, is actually below his expected completion percentage of 66.3%. Plus, unlike other passers in consideration, the veteran doesn't add any value with his legs. Brady does have two game-winning drives to his name, but he's outside the top five for me.
Lamar Jackson has already produced 10.6 expected points on the ground, which is third in the league behind Allen and Patrick Mahomes. What has been more interesting is the change the 2019 MVP has made as a passer. Jackson's completion percentage is down to 60.5%, but he has made up for that gap by picking up 8.7 yards per throw, which ranks sixth in the NFL and is significantly higher than his prior career average of 7.5 yards per attempt. Those numbers would look even better if Marquise Brown hadn't dropped three long completions in the Lions game, although he made up for it with a spectacular catch against the Broncos in Week 4. Jackson ranks 13th in Total QBR through four weeks, leaving him outside our top five.
Sam Darnold got off to a hot start against some of the league's worst teams -- and his five rushing touchdowns are one of the great bizarre stats of this campaign -- but the Panthers quarterback wasn't on the same level against tougher competition in Dallas. Before Carolina's win expectancy sank below 2%, he was 14-of-25 passing for 162 yards with two picks and a completion percentage over expectation of minus-8.3%. He was 12-of-14 for 139 yards and two scores in garbage time, which was great for DJ Moore fantasy managers, but didn't actually do much to help the Panthers win. It's fair to leave Darnold out of the top five for now given what we know about the degree of difficulty in his hot start.
Derek Carr threw for 1,203 yards over the first three games of the season -- and the Raiders have been one of the league's most explosive offenses -- but the Chargers shut down Carr & Co. in Week 4. Carr was just 7-of-13 passing for 52 yards in the first half, and while he got hot in the third quarter, he took a bad sack on third down to end one possession, missed Henry Ruggs for what would have been a long score, and then threw an interception to Derwin James to take Las Vegas out of serious contention.
This might be criminal to say in a universe in which Patrick Mahomes exists, but I don't think any quarterback looks better throwing the ball on a pass-by-pass basis right now than Justin Herbert. No one has more zip on their passes, and with Allen's accuracy slipping, Herbert looks more like 2020 Allen than the real thing does in 2021. His decision-making has been spotty, though, as he has already thrown three picks. He's also averaging just 7.2 yards per attempt, which ranks 18th in the NFL. Herbert has made major strides, but he's somewhere in the seven to eight range for now.
Ranking the top five early favorites
5. Dak Prescott, Cowboys
Prescott has come back from last year's broken ankle and gotten right back to picking apart opposing defenses with some of the most accurate throws in the league. He's completing 75.2% of his passes, which is 7.3% above expectation. He has an excellent one-two punch at wide receiver in Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, but he has made guys such as Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz look like impact receivers in the Dallas offense. The only passer who's completing passes over expectation at a higher rate through four weeks is Kyler Murray.
Where Prescott comes up short is with the other stuff. Averaging 8.0 yards per attempt is comfortably above the league average, but the other quarterbacks in the top five are averaging a combined 9.2 yards per attempt. Whether it's the after-effects of his ankle injury or a small sample, Prescott has also had some ugly plays as a runner, as his 17 carries have produced minus-5.3 rushing EPA, with a fourth-and-goal stuff and a pair of fumbles on aborted snaps. He has also been strip-sacked twice. His return from a serious injury has been remarkable, but the 28-year-old has had more negative plays than other guys on this list through four weeks.
4. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
Wilson is the league's most efficient quarterback through four games. He leads the league in all kinds of per-play metrics, including yards per attempt (9.6), adjusted yards per attempt (11.2) and passer rating (129.9). Wilson also has the best touchdown-to-interception ratio at 9:0.
Advanced metrics aren't quite as enthused about Wilson's play, though. His 60.9 Total QBR ranks 10th in the NFL, and he's fifth in this group among expected points per play. The big problem, as has been the case in years past, is sacks. He has been taken down 11 times, with six of those coming on third down. By ESPN's expected points model, the sacks have cost the Seahawks nearly 4.7 points, more than any other quarterback we've mentioned in this piece.
Another factor Wilson is missing is sheer volume. The four other quarterbacks in the top five have thrown the ball an average of just under 136 times through four games. Wilson has thrown the ball just 109 times. Owing to their style and a defense that has struggled to get off the field, the Seahawks are playing at one of the slowest paces in the league; they're averaging a league-low 52.8 offensive snaps per game against a league average of 63.5 snaps per contest. The disparity isn't Wilson's fault, but it limits just how productive he can be, even with remarkable efficiency.
3. Matthew Stafford, Rams
Stafford is off to a blinding start in his new home. Blessed with a new coach and the best players he has enjoyed since the heyday of Calvin Johnson, the 2009 No. 1 overall pick is on pace for career highs in both completion percentage (68.1%) and yards per attempt (9.1). Unlike Wilson, Stafford has also been able to avoid sacks, taking just three through the first four games despite facing the Bears, Bucs and Cardinals. As a result, he leads the NFL in adjusted net yards per attempt, a stat that incorporates sacks and sack yardage, by averaging 8.6 yards per pass play.
Unlike the other passers on this list, though, Stafford is not outproducing what would be expected by Next Gen Stats. His completion percentage over expectation is minus-0.1%, which stands out among a group whose CPOE ranges from plus-4.1% (Mahomes) to plus-9.2% (Murray). Strangely, Stafford has been well above average on throws downfield, but his CPOE on throws behind the line (minus-0.8%) and throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (minus-4.4%) has been underwhelming. Some of that might come down to drops, as Stafford's receivers have dropped passes at a higher rate than either of the guys in the top two.
The other missing factor has to do with what most of the top-tier quarterbacks in the NFL can offer these days: rushing value. Stafford's passing numbers are right in line with the top two quarterbacks, but when you strip out kneel-downs, he has run the ball eight times for 25 yards. You're essentially getting some sneaks and the occasional scramble for a first down from Stafford, but he has one run for 20-plus yards over the past decade. Mahomes already has one this season, while Murray had seven such runs a year ago. Without that rushing value, Stafford needs to be the best pure passer in football by a meaningful margin to be the MVP.
We're left with two guys who are neck-and-neck in Mahomes and Murray. Picking between the two depends on which rate metrics you might feel to be most valuable:
Given our perceptions of each player heading into 2021, it feels like Murray is almost playing more like Mahomes and vice versa. Murray has been dominating teams with deep passes, going 18-of-27 for 544 yards and three touchdowns (with three picks). His CPOE there is 23% above expectation, the best in football. Impressively, just three of those 18 completions have gone to DeAndre Hopkins; the other 15 throws have been to Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore and Maxx Williams. The Cards were too dependent on Murray and Hopkins to be magical last season; now, Murray can make Green and Williams look like difference-makers.
Mahomes has instead been nearly twice as productive as Murray as a runner, producing 10.8 rushing EPA across just 15 rushing attempts. The 2018 MVP got back to his old self with a huge game throwing deep to Tyreek Hill against the Eagles, but as I mentioned after Week 3, the Chiefs have generally been beating teams on offense with ruthless efficiency as opposed to the devastating downfield attack we usually associate with them. Nearly half of Mahomes' pass attempts are producing first downs (48.2%), which is 4.6 percentage points ahead of Prescott in second place. The last time a quarterback was hitting first downs that frequently was Peyton Manning during his 55-touchdown season in 2013, and that might be the greatest season a quarterback has ever produced.
Frankly, there's no right (or wrong) answer here. You could make a case for either player. Murray doesn't have the one-two punch of Hill and Travis Kelce, although Hopkins is an incredible alternative. You could also argue that Murray has gotten more help from his teammates, given that they've dropped a league-low 0.7% of his pass attempts so far. I think Murray would be the sentimental pick having not won an MVP so far in his career, and I would have no issue with anybody choosing the Cardinals quarterback. Fans and voters tend to prefer the guy who has raised his game to the one who has continually played at a high level. By the narrowest of margins, I'm opting for the guy who has been doing this for the entirety of his career.
