It's potentially never been more crucial to have a franchise quarterback in the NFL. Passing attempts are up, we're seeing more and more 300-yard games and offensive schemes are increasingly built around the strength of a gifted passer.
A month into the 2021 season, we wanted to survey the QB landscape. Four weeks is a small sample size, but it's enough game play to draw a few conclusions or confirm how the league feels about a certain player. So, we reached out to league execs, coaches and scouts to piece together quarterback progress reports.
The injection of youth under center around the league is exciting. Tom Brady's 25-year plan notwithstanding, players 25 or younger are flooding end zones. Since the 2019 draft, at least three first-round passers are tracking for superstardom, with a few more showing varying degrees of promise. Several passers in their mid-career arc are trending toward career years. And a few surprises have developed this season, starting in the NFC South.
Let's hand out 12 quarter-mark awards for some NFL quarterbacks catching the eyes of people around the league.
Most improved: Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
Darnold has exceeded expectations with Carolina, perhaps even inside his own building. He performed pretty well in training camp -- not bad, not great -- but Darnold is thriving in a new environment, with ample weapons and playcaller Joe Brady putting him in manageable situations.
Entering Week 5, Darnold has 1,189 yards with 10 total touchdowns (five passing, five rushing) and three interceptions. To put that into context, Darnold had five rushing touchdowns in his three years with the Jets (38 games), and now, he is the first quarterback in the past 20 years to hit that mark through the first four games of a season.
"The guy was 2-10 as a starter last year. Now, he's winning," an AFC exec said. "It's an impressive turnaround."
Two schools of thought emerged among evaluators regarding Darnold's failed run in New York. Either they still loved his toughness, arm strength and demeanor or they couldn't shake the easy throws Darnold consistently missed. He ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every statistical passing category in 2020.
But everyone agreed on this: Former coach Adam Gase and the Jets didn't support him enough, too often forcing him into a traditional dropback to figure out complex defenses on the fly. The Panthers, however, have stressed ball security and decision-making with Darnold, who is learning the power of checking down or taking off when passing windows close.
"I always thought that in the right offense, he would do really well. Like if he were on the Rams, he would be a star," an NFC exec said. "He's got a lot of traits with mobility and arm strength, and teammates love him. Carolina seems to be taking advantage of those."
The next step is handling the blitz better. In Sunday's 36-28 loss to Dallas, the Cowboys blitzed on four of Darnold's first 10 dropbacks in the second half, resulting in an interception and a sack during that span. On the year, his 34.7 QBR against the blitz ranks 24th in the league.
Hottest start: Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Cousins does certain things so well that a player often labeled overrated feels a bit underrated. He has seen a hot start because he starts so hot, completing 16 of 17 passes for 223 yards and three touchdowns on opening drives this season. He showed once again on Sunday against Cleveland that he is great on a script, completing all six passing attempts for 59 yards and a score to open the game.
We already knew he's great in a clean pocket, with Pro Football Focus ranking him first when not pressured with a 94.1 grade through three weeks. And it's hard to argue with his bottom-line production through the first month: 1,121 yards with nine touchdowns and one interception on 108-of-157 passing (68.7%).
"I feel like he always comes back down and doesn't win the games he should," an AFC exec said. "I just don't buy him when it gets tight. But solid so far, no doubt."
Praise of Cousins is usually followed by the inevitable drawback, and it's a familiar one: People inside the league have doubts about whether he can elevate his team when things aren't perfect or scripted, like when pressure in the pocket mounts. Despite the hot start against Cleveland, Cousins was 2-of-13 for zero passing yards when pressured Sunday. Sixteen of the Browns' 22 QB pressures came with a four-man front, which made the day worse for Cousins.
Most improved in a certain area: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Evaluators praised Murray's spike in accuracy. He has completed 76.1% of his passes as compared to 67.2% last year. Murray's ball location, timing and chemistry with receivers have sparked Arizona's 4-0 start.
No one doubts Murray's enormous skill set. But some around league are still skeptical of an Air Raid-heavy attack lasting in the NFL, feeling the offense relies on throw-it-up plays too often.
"You always know Kyler is going to start hot because he's immensely talented, but I think teams sort of catch up to what [the Cardinals] do later in the year," an AFC scout said. "So, I'm curious to see how he adjusts."
Scheme might not matter much given Murray's Year 3 command -- and wheels that pale only in comparison to Lamar Jackson under center. Murray and his cast of weapons can overcome any perceived shortcomings, at least for now.
Biggest statement: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
The season-ending ankle injury, the debates about whether to pay him $40 million a year, the questions about his status in the upper tier ... all of that is fading now. Prescott has arrived in a big way, impressing through the first month with 1,066 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions. On Sunday, Prescott threw three third-quarter touchdowns for the first time in his career and finished with four touchdowns to zero interceptions for the fourth time.
"He's playing up to that contract," an NFL offensive coach said. "Really impressive what he's doing right now."
As an NFC exec added, "My thing with Dak was I always thought he was an average processor, but he looks in complete command [right now] and knows where to go with the ball."
That $160 million deal over four years could eventually look like a bargain.
Most uneven start: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Roethlisberger's name comes up most often here, partly because of the standard he has set. Even as Roethlisberger turned 39 in March, some evaluators still considered him a top-10 quarterback entering the season, figuring his experience and ball placement would overcome the increasing immobility.
But the vertical passing game has been an issue, with Roethlisberger completing 27.8% of his attempts 20-plus yards downfield since 2020. A player who once consistently drove the ball seven yards per passing attempt is now in the low 6s.
"There was some decline last year too. But they could certainly get it straightened out," an AFC exec said. "The arm doesn't appear to be a major issue, and there's talent to throw to. But the line is not good, and Roethlisberger can't move like he used to."
Not everyone is eager to write off Big Ben. It's far too early in the season to make sweeping judgments, some evaluators say.
"I'm not going to say a first-ballot Hall of Famer is done after three or four games," a veteran NFL offensive coach said. "It's just not enough of a sample, and he's been doing it too long. It wouldn't surprise me to see him play well soon."
Most vindicated: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Stafford's trade market was so strong back in January because the list of quarterbacks with his skill set is short. The Rams won out for Stafford in a deal with the Lions, despite several teams -- from Carolina to Washington -- making compelling offers. And his first month with the Rams couldn't have gone better, leading the NFL with an 82.9 QBR, before the ugly, 37-20 loss to the Cardinals on Sunday. (He is now second to Patrick Mahomes at 77.9.)
"Injuries and terrible teams were the things holding him back, and now neither are issues, so you are seeing what he can do," an AFC exec said. "You never really questioned his toughness, and you always heard good things about the guy. He just needed something to put it all together."
As a veteran NFL coach added, "It's not like he didn't get it done in Detroit. He was consistently putting up big numbers there. They just didn't win, and that's hardly on him."
Trending toward a big contract: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are ready to pay Jackson, and Jackson is playing like he's ready to get paid. But he appears to be slow-playing all of this because (A) he is focused on the on-field product first and (B) he doesn't have an agent to push this across the finish line.
Jackson could become the NFL's first passer to throw for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in a single season. The rushing part should be no problem, but Jackson is averaging 269 passing yards per game, up big from 184 last year -- and that's with multiple big-play drops from Marquise Brown in Week 3.
"It would be a surprise if [Jackson] doesn't get a deal higher than Josh Allen's [$43 million per year]," an NFC exec said.
The Saints' Jameis Winston is another one to watch here. Much more must play out, but if turnovers were his primary issue, the Saints will take a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio from him all day.
Most promising starts: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, and Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Top picks from the 2020 draft should be showcased in the QB pantheon for many years. Herbert slayed the Arrowhead Stadium demons in Week 3 with a brilliant touchdown drive in the final minutes to beat the Chiefs, and Burrow is winning games with savvy line of scrimmage audibles. The two have combined for 1,944 yards and 15 touchdowns, including Burrow's wild, 253 second-half yards on Thursday against Jacksonville.
"I was a little worried about Burrow moving around on that knee, and he was missing a few deep balls early in the year, but it's hard to nitpick anything; he's been impressive," an AFC exec said. "He's so ahead of schedule with the mental part. And from what he showed at LSU, what else do you want to see as far as the throws he can make? He's doing what he did in college."
The same exec kept bringing up Herbert when asked about other quarterbacks: "He's always been a stud and will keep getting better."
Most confusing start: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence's confounding start is more about the struggles around him. He finally looked comfortable in Week 4 against Cincinnati, as the Jaguars asked him to throw on the move and make quick decisions alongside running back James Robinson. The stat line might be unsettling -- five touchdowns to seven interceptions on a 57% completion rate -- but progress is apparent.
"He's improved a ton from the preseason," an AFC exec said. "He will be fine. They are not real talented on offense. Clemson's offense is simple ... It will take some time for him to learn coverages and where his outlets are. He is smart, though."
You don't have to see much from Lawrence to know he has a lot of potential to be awfully successful in the NFL.
Sneaky MVP candidate: Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
We highlighted Carr's promising start after Week 2. Not many QBs were better in September.
Leading up to the Monday Night Football matchup with the Chargers, the only question is how long Carr can keep this up. He is pacing for a 6,817-yard season. That probably won't happen, but the 5,000 mark does seem doable, which is 897 more than his career high.
Most hopeful: Daniel Jones, New York Giants
The good news is Jones never has played better. The once turnover-prone passer has one interception on an end-of-half Hail Mary, and he just hung 402 yards on a rowdy Superdome crowd to beat the Saints.
The bad news is Jones never has played better ... and the Giants still started 1-3.
"You wonder if this is it. Can he really elevate a team?" an NFC scout said. "He's a tough kid and is getting better; you just wonder about the ceiling."
Maybe an expanded playbook can help. Kicker Graham Gano's 10 field goal attempts are emblematic of the Giants' red zone struggles. But on Sunday, the Giants unleashed first-rounder Kadarius Toney (seven touches, 79 yards), threw deep to John Ross and unlocked Kenny Golladay for 116 yards. All three are unique weapons whom Jones should continue to utilize.
Best throws: Zach Wilson, New York Jets
Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers could highlight this category just about any week, but Wilson deserves an invite based on his Week 4 performance and the ugly play he overcame to get here.
Despite leading the league with seven interceptions through Week 3, Wilson made several brilliant throws in the overtime win over Tennessee. Rolling to his right at nearly full speed to uncork a 54-yarder to Keelan Cole showcased the supreme arm talent. The 53-yard uncorking to Corey Davis while rolling to his right was nearly as impressive. And with poise, Wilson helped seal the game with a third-and-2 touch pass to a streaking Cole for 29 yards.
The reminder: Let Wilson be himself.
"When I heard the O-lineman [Greg Van Roten] saying publicly he should get the ball out quicker, I said, 'Oh, no,'" an AFC scout said. "He's already dealing with confidence issues with the interceptions. Don't plant that seed. He's a rare talent who will come around; just don't ruin him early."