How, exactly, does one overreact to a game like this? A revenge game for the ages, rolling in on weeks' worth of hype, that actually lives up to its expectations?
We are accustomed to watching amazing things happen when Tom Brady is on a football field. But Sunday night's Bucs-Patriots matchup was drama of a different sort. Brady back for the first time in the place where he delivered the fan base two decades of championship-caliber bliss. His former coaches doing everything they can to outfox him. His would-be successor earning his chops in a big spot, toe-to-toe with the GOAT. A driving rain for dramatic effect.
In the end, it was Brady who came out ahead, as he so often does, but just barely. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels threw everything they could at Brady and his Super Bowl champion Bucs, to the point where it wasn't settled until Nick Folk's 56-yard field goal attempt clanged harmlessly off the left upright. Brady walked out the winner, he and his current team still pointed in the direction of the repeat Super Bowl title they seek, his former team bummed but perhaps also somehow emboldened by their valiant effort. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones and the Patriots had nothing about which to hang their heads Sunday night. They stared right at the champs and didn't back down.
How do you overreact to any of that? At the same time, where else could we possibly start the Week 5 overreactions?
Tom Brady enjoyed that comeback win more than any other
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Watching Brady after the game, sharing hugs and handshakes with former teammates, erased any doubt about this being something more than just a regular game for the former Patriots quarterback. This night mattered to Brady on a different level. Not a higher level, mind you, but a different one. A parallel level where circumstances are identical but priorities diverge. Imagining a more sour, dejected Brady holding those conversations if the score had tilted the other way, you realized what a relief it must have been to him that it had not.
He has surely accomplished greater things than a Week 4 nonconference road win, but on a very specific level, it's fair to believe this one meant something special in its own right. And his near-tears postgame interview on NBC left no doubt.
The Cowboys are legitimate Super Bowl contenders
Dallas trailed 14-13 at the half Sunday to the then-unbeaten Panthers but came roaring out of the locker room and won the third quarter 20-0. NFC Defensive Player of the Month Trevon Diggs looked like he wanted to get a head start on the October award, collecting two second-half interceptions to run his season total to five. Ezekiel Elliott tore up a Carolina run defense that had allowed an average of 45 rushing yards over its first three games. Dak Prescott continued to just basically rule.
The Cowboys improved to 3-1, with their only loss so far coming on a last-second field goal in Tampa to the Super Bowl champion Buccaneers.
The verdict: Oh, man, I can't believe I'm going to do this ... NOT AN OVERREACTION. I know. It's the Cowboys. As soon as we start thinking they're for real, they go out and lose some dumb game they have no business losing and we have to castigate ourselves for falling for it again. Tale as old as time. And yeah, they came perilously close to letting Carolina back in the game with a leaky fourth quarter. And yeah, it's possible that the Panthers were a bit overrated based on their September schedule.
Thing is, I don't think that last thing is true. And the dumb games they had no business losing? Well, they won one of them last week against the Eagles and another this week against the Panthers. Carolina came into this game on 10 days' rest. The Cowboys had six coming off the Monday night game. The Cowboys bullied the Panthers in the second half the way great teams bully merely good ones in this league.
But forget all of that for a second and think about this: The Cowboys play in the NFC East. If they are, as early returns indicate them to be, head and shoulders above the rest of the teams in their division, then they have a chance to come out of the regular season with a better record than, say, the champions of the much more challenging NFC West. And with only one bye per conference, that stuff matters.
We've been burned so many times here, I cringe as I type this. But if we're using the first four weeks of the season as a gauge, the Cowboys look to have as good a chance as anybody.
The Dolphins will trade for Deshaun Watson this week
In spite of the very serious off-field issues hanging over Watson's head, Watson to Miami is, in league circles, the chatter that won't go away. The Dolphins put up 203 total yards of offense and averaged 4.1 yards per play Sunday against a Colts team that barely has 11 healthy dudes. The week before, they averaged 4.2 yards per play in an overtime loss to the Raiders.
Yes, they're using backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett and expect starter Tua Tagovailoa back in a couple of weeks. But the Dolphins were engaged with Houston in on-again/off-again trade talks this offseason when Tagovailoa was healthy, and there's a persistent belief among people inside the league that (A) Miami still wants Watson and (B) Miami is where Watson wants to play. As long as the Dolphins are losing and not scoring, this chatter will not disappear.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Let's start with this fact: Watson is facing 22 civil lawsuits alleging sexual assault and inappropriate behavior, and the cases seem likely to last beyond the football season. It's entirely possible that, even if he were traded to a team he wants to play for, Watson could be suspended or placed on the commissioner's exempt list, rendering him unavailable for the team that just gave up a huge trove of draft picks to get him.
And let's not ignore the possibility that a team might be hesitant to make Watson the face of its franchise considering everything of which he stands accused. He'd make just about any team better on the field. But off the field, the best you can say is that he's a major question mark.
Is it possible the Dolphins deal for him? This week? Before the trade deadline? In the offseason? Yes, of course it is. But there's obviously a lot more going on here than just, "Team A is struggling at QB. Watson is available. Team A must pursue Watson." If there weren't, he'd have been traded months ago.
The Bears need to start Justin Fields at QB for the rest of the year
Everything is relative. So while the Bears' offensive performance in their 24-14 victory over the lowly Lions didn't exactly recall the Greatest Show on Turf, it was an absolute masterpiece compared to the egg they laid the week before.
Fields, making his second NFL start, was 11-for-17 passing for 209 yards, one tipped-ball one interception and no touchdowns. The rookie first-round pick also ran for 9 yards on three carries. Again, nothing eye-popping, but he looked a lot better than he did the week before against the Browns (who, by the way, might just have a monster defense).
The Bears helped him out by running the ball on 39 of their 57 offensive plays, and fundamentally things seemed calmer and more under control than they did seven days prior.
The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Were they lighting up the league with Andy Dalton and I missed it? Look, we've already seen the floor -- the worst possible outcome with Fields at QB, and it'd be shocking if the Bears (or any other NFL offense) looked as bad again as they did against Cleveland. More important is that Fields and the offense bounced back with a competent effort this week and have something on which to build.
Fields is the future for the Bears. And while they don't get to play the Lions every week, he will get better the more he plays and experiences the NFL game. It won't always be pretty -- and it might not be fair to Dalton that he lost his job because he got hurt -- but Dalton wouldn't be the first nor the last.
With the floor established, the Bears should look at the potential ceiling for their offense with Fields at quarterback, and it's a lot higher than it is with Dalton.
Jimmy Garoppolo has started his last game for the 49ers
One of the reasons the 49ers traded up to take Trey Lance with the No. 3 pick in April's draft was that Garoppolo has a history of getting hurt and not being available. Well, Garoppolo suffered a calf injury in the first half of Sunday's loss to the Seahawks, and Lance played the entire second half. The rookie was kind of just fine. He found Deebo Samuel wide open for a long touchdown but was a pedestrian 9-for-18 for 157 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran the ball seven times for 41 yards, which shows an element he brings that Garoppolo does not.
After the game, Garoppolo told reporters he hoped the injury would keep him out only a couple of weeks, and coach Kyle Shanahan said the team would tailor the game plan to Lance's strengths if Garoppolo couldn't play next week.
The verdict: OVERREACTION. Could it happen? Sure. Lance could take the job and run with it, especially if Garoppolo is out for an extended period of time. But Lance also could flop next week against the 4-0 Cardinals, and then the 49ers have a bye in Week 6. If Garoppolo's injury is going to keep him out only a couple of weeks, that could mean he misses only one game. And if Lance doesn't impress in that one game, it wouldn't be hard to imagine Shanahan going back to Jimmy G. If Shanahan thought Lance were ready to take over by now, Lance would have taken over by now.
Lance likely has the opportunity to grab the job with a big game next week. But it's possible that the Niners end up having to go back to Garoppolo to keep them in contention this season. Remember that the trade deadline is about a month away and that Garoppolo has a no-trade clause in his contract for this year only. This could be an important couple of weeks for the 49ers' quarterback situation.