It wasn't that long ago -- maybe five or six years earlier -- that opposing defensive coordinators feared Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger more than just about anyone else under center.
Before Patrick Mahomes sparked a new era of prolific passers with generational mobility and arm strength, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers highlighted debates about the best quarterbacks. But Roethlisberger made a compelling case for the No. 3 spot and even flirted with the top two. For a stretch, he was a threat to throw for 400 or even 500 yards every Sunday, and the Steelers always had a chance with him in the lineup.
While Rodgers and Brady have evolved and even thrived with age, Roethlisberger is performing like you'd expect a 39-year-old with extensive injury history to play. He faces real questions about the end, now that the Steelers' offense is falling flat for a second consecutive year.
Sunday's 24-10 loss to Cincinnati was Pittsburgh's first home loss to Cincinnati since 2015 and its first double-digit loss at home to the Bengals since 1995. At 1-2, the Steelers produced back-to-back losses for the first time since 2003, and they've held a lead for less than 18 minutes of a possible 180 minutes this season. While many hoped new coordinator Matt Canada would invigorate Roethlisberger this season, the quarterback, in his 18th season, looks unsettled, seemingly longing for the days of his signature no-huddle offense.
It's early, and breaking in a young offensive line and new coordinator can take time. But the red flags are drowning out the nostalgia and tradition to which Roethlisberger clung in his news conference on Sunday. "You don't quit. You fight," he said. "Everybody that has put this jersey on knows what it means to be a Pittsburgh Steeler, through wins and losses. We just have to keep instilling that message to everybody."
At some point, that message must turn to progress, which hardly appears around the corner. After talking to people around the league about the situation in Pittsburgh and Roethlisberger's place in it, we took a detailed look at the veteran QB's game, the Steelers' underwhelming offense and how the season might play out. What's wrong with Roethlisberger, is he nearing the end and what are the Steelers' realistic options at this point?
What the numbers say
Let's start by saying that Roethlisberger is hardly the only culprit for Pittsburgh's shortcomings through Week 3. An aging offensive line struggled last year, and a 2021 unit of mostly new parts -- including several mid-to-late-round picks -- was considered the team's biggest weakness entering the season.
"He hasn't had time to gel with the new O-line, which can be an issue for an older QB," an AFC exec said. An NFL personnel evaluator also pointed out that the absence of center Maurkice Pouncey, who retired in the offseason, has impacted Roethlisberger. Those two were close, and Pouncey could set protections and handle communication up front as Roethlisberger ran his go-to no huddle.
The Steelers' offensive line has ranked 29th in the NFL in pass block win rate since 2020, sustaining blocks for 2.5 seconds or more 50.2% of the time. In 2021 alone, the Steelers are at 48.2%, and Roethlisberger has been hit 28 times -- his most over a three-game span since 2010. He has taken 10 sacks, just four fewer than he had all of last season.
"The O-line play has accentuated the decline," one recent Steelers player said. "So he's either got happy feet or not stepping into his throws because of how many times he's been hit or lack of time in the pocket. And he's got a rookie [Kendrick Green] at center, so that's different too."
Elsewhere on offense, receivers aren't exactly getting open despite talent at wideout and tight end. Pittsburgh pass-catchers are averaging 2.9 yards of separation on targets since 2020, 23rd in the NFL, and have 45 drops during that span, easily tops in the league. Plus, the running game's 3.6 yards per rush is among the league's worst since the start of last season.
Roethlisberger, for his part, has struggled with accuracy in the vertical passing game. A 27.8% completion rate on passes 20-plus yards downfield ranks 34th out of 39 quarterbacks since 2020, and he has been off-target on 40.5% of such throws.
His yards per attempt was never below 7.0 through his first 15 seasons, but those averages have dipped to 5.7 in 2019 (only two games), 6.3 in 2020 and 6.2 in 2021.
The skill set
The biggest issue appears to be mobility. It's hard to miss that Roethlisberger is hard for defenders to miss.
"He can't move well," an AFC exec said. "You have to be able to do that in today's game, and that used to be a strength -- but it's not anymore. Not being elusive can cause a player to get skittish."
The play Sunday where Roethlisberger fell over while tossing to fullback Derek Watt garnered attention but was sort of a fluke fall. The bigger problem is the inability to create on the move like vintage Big Ben. His 10.3 QBR under pressure ranks 24th in the NFL this season, and his 12.2 QBR outside the pocket is 27th.
Those who have watched Roethlisberger say the arm strength isn't totally gone. There's still some ability there. Roethlisberger has always had arm talent, and even, say, 80% of his 2014 arm is still pretty good.
"It's the accuracy that you notice more," an NFL personnel evaluator said. "Not sure if it's a trust-and-timing thing or the whole offense out of sync or he just doesn't have the placement, but he's missing some throws he usually makes."
Roethlisberger has completed more than 64% of his passes every full season since 2013. He's at 63.3% this year.
"It's little things like throwing front side or backside when the ball should be at the chest, things that I've seen him do forever, stepping into his throws," the evaluator said. "I do think it's a byproduct of what's around him."
The volume of throws doesn't help. In a stage of his career when Roethlisberger should be supported by a strong running game, he threw the ball 58 times in the Bengals loss. And his 130 throws on the season rank third.
The mounting obstacles
Signs have pointed to an unceremonious ending for Big Ben. The offseason pay cut was one. Any pay cut in the NFL is typically an acknowledgement of declining skill.
Roethlisberger has said he accepted a $5 million decrease in pay -- from $19 to $14 million in the last year of his deal -- to help the team, which is indeed admirable. He could have said no. And his original cap hit of $40 million was probably too steep to unload anyways. But team president Art Rooney II and general manager Kevin Colbert most likely wouldn't have come out so strongly this offseason that they couldn't pay his full salary if his game was trending upward.
Roethlisberger's physical toll is a factor. Brady might lead the NFL in all-time sacks taken with 527, but he has played 304 games. Roethlisberger is right behind him at 524 sacks despite playing 68 fewer career games. He has taken more hits per game over 17-plus years.
As a result, Roethlisberger has, by unofficial count, suffered at least 19 injuries over the past 12 years, everything from meniscus tears to concussions to the elbow surgery in 2019. Brady has suffered seven known injuries during the same span. Big Ben is among the toughest quarterbacks to ever play, often fighting through pain and injuries to help his team on Sundays. But that has a cost, especially for a 6-foot-5, 241-pound player.
"People can make fun of the TB12 method and that pliability and elasticity of the arm and the avocado ice cream, but that stuff worked for [Brady]," an NFL personnel man said. "His arm is still live and he's moving great. And that's an anomaly. It's really hard for most to keep that up."
His fit in the scheme
After years of a similar scheme with offensive coordinators Todd Haley and Randy Fichtner, the Steelers gave Canada a chance to refresh the Steelers' offense, keeping up to date with an NFL that relies heavily on play-action, motions and shifts.
Pittsburgh has gone play-action a league-low 11% of the time since 2020, though Canada has increased the Steelers' usage slightly. In 2021, they're running it 15% of the time on offense. But the traditional 11 personnel usage (one running back, one tight end) has increased to 78% this year, up from 73% since 2020. The Steelers motion 34% of their offensive snaps, the fourth-lowest ranking in the NFL and 6% lower than last year. And their shotgun usage of 82% is the NFL's fourth-highest clip.
What does it all mean? The Steelers appear stuck between modernizing the offense and managing a maligned offensive line and Roethlisberger's skill set. They scraped the no-huddle only to bring it back for spurts in Week 3, including a second-quarter scoring drive against Cincinnati.
The Steelers sometimes dink-and-dunk their way through games because things go poorly on slowly developing plays. When taking three or more seconds to throw, Roethlisberger has three touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 47% completion rate since the beginning of last season.
"You can blame scheme, but the truth is, when Roethlisberger was playing really well, he had a top-five line and Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, and JuJu Smith-Schuster was just coming along," an NFC exec said. "They have dudes. I'm not convinced in the playmakers they have being those kind of guys to help him."
The Steelers' options
Pittsburgh faces the question many franchises have dealt with over the past two decades: When is the right time to walk away from a franchise cornerstone? Roethlisberger's 2004 draft mate, first overall pick Eli Manning, was 38 when the New York Giants benched him for Daniel Jones in September 2019. He retired four months later. Philip Rivers -- the fourth pick that year and seven spots ahead of Roethlisberger -- turned 38 as the Los Angeles Chargers decided to move on by letting him walk in free agency. From Troy Aikman in Dallas to Brett Favre in Green Bay, teams begin considering contingencies as their long-tenured signal-callers reach the mid-to-late 30s.
Still, most agree that Roethlisberger is still the best option on the Steelers' roster. But consider the four-week gauntlet coming up: a road trip to Green Bay, homes games against Denver and Seattle, and an away matchup in Cleveland.
"If they continue to struggle, starting in Green Bay, things could at least get interesting," an NFL personnel man said. "Mike Tomlin would probably have a decision: Do I stay with him?"
Tomlin hasn't had a losing season since taking over in 2007 and doesn't plan to start now. Tanking isn't in the Pittsburgh vernacular.
"I think it would be different if they had a top-10 pick waiting to play, but that's not the case," an NFC exec said.
Colbert did deem fourth-year quarterback Mason Rudolph a first-round talent upon drafting him in 2018, and it's no secret inside the Steelers' building that he viewed Rudolph as a potential franchise quarterback. At this stage, Rudolph has the accuracy and arm strength to potentially spark the offense. Players and coaches would need to see him cut it loose a bit more than the last time he was a starter in 2019 and make plays when things don't go perfectly. Rudolph is 5-4 as a Steelers starter for the injured Roethlisberger, completing 61.7% of his passes and throwing 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
An NFC scout said the Steelers should want to see Dwayne Haskins play meaningful snaps at some point. But the team didn't run him with the first team in the preseason, so there are hardly any promises here. Haskins is a free agent in 2022, so the Steelers could look to re-sign him before March.
The Steelers eschewed free-agent options such as Jameis Winston or Cam Newton for the status quo, thinking a top-tier defense would help carry this team. After injuries piled up on that side, and Bengals QB Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns Sunday, a harsh reality set in for one team source.
"With the way the defense is playing, it won't matter [who's at QB]," the source said.