NFL free-agency notes and rumors: Last-minute news, teams to watch and everything we're hearing for 2021

NFL free agency is upon us once again and yeah, like everything else these days, it feels a little off.

As of noon ET on Monday, teams can begin discussing contract terms with the agents for free-agent players. At 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday, the new league year opens and new contracts and trades can become official. If history is any indication, the 52 hours between those two will overflow with news of planned signings and agreed-to deals.

But things are definitely a bit weird. The salary cap, which had been going up reliably by about $10 million per year, is actually down nearly $16 million from last year as a result of pandemic-related revenue losses. The 2021 cap will be $182.5 million per team. The 2020 cap was $198.2 million per team. And when most current long-term deals were signed, there was an expectation that the cap would continue to rise. So really, this year's cap is down more like $26 million from where teams and agents expected it would be back in pre-COVID-19 times.

This means several veterans have been cut and will continue to be cut in the coming days, flooding the market with "street" free agents who are allowed to sign before the league year and the legal tampering period begin. Many teams are monitoring the wire to see whether they can find a better bargain on a released player than they might find on an unrestricted free agent this week. That could drive down prices.

The annual Indianapolis-based gossip mill that is the NFL scouting combine didn't happen this year, which means all fact-finding business for teams, agents and those of us who report on the league has had to take place by phone. This is a new challenge, of course, but we've been wearing out our phone and AirPod batteries trying to make sure we get you the best possible information anyway.

To that end, this notebook represents a collection of what we're hearing as free agency approaches. We recognize that some of this could be outdated by the time you read it. Things are moving fast. We're just trying to share with you some of what's been talked about in the days and weeks leading up to one of the most frenzied times on the NFL calendar.

Jump to a section:
Will Seattle give Russell Wilson some help?
The wide receiver market is plentiful
Could free-agent corners get squeezed?
Which teams are in the edge-rusher market?
Trade talk: Three candidates to watch
What are the Bears doing at quarterback?

It's hard out there for running backs, right?

Updated: Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET

The battle-tested running back market looks as if it could be depressed once again, at least in spots, though Aaron Jones set a strong tone with Sunday's four-year extension. The deal is worth up to $48 million with a $13 million signing bonus, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.

The franchise tag deadline told part of the story for running backs, however: Jones is widely considered a top-10 back, yet Green Bay declined the chance to tag him at a reasonable $8.7 million. Tagging Jones in back-to-back years would have cost $19.4 million -- or around $6 million less than Derrick Henry's two-year payout ($25.5 million) on the four-year extension signed last year on the heels of the franchise tag deadline. The guarantees on Jones' new deal have not been released.

Multiple league execs say Jones and Seattle's Chris Carson might be the only two backs with a clear path to a deal above $5 million per year.

One team to watch is the Dolphins, who are gauging the top of the running back market. That's the spot many pegged for Jones before the re-sign. Other teams expected to look for tailback help to varying degrees: Lions, Jets, Jaguars, 49ers, Steelers, Cardinals. One player in the mix with some of those teams: Jamaal Williams, whom Green Bay didn't make strong efforts to re-sign. He's likely done in Green Bay with Jones and promising second-year man AJ Dillon in the fold. He'll have a solid market as a second-tier option.

Carson and Kenyan Drake will have a few choices. And here's a potential pairing that we've heard a few people float: James White to the Buccaneers, reuniting with Tom Brady to bolster the backfield passing game. Tampa Bay spent much of last year trying to find a reliable pass-catching back for Brady, and White is one he knows well.

One of the most intriguing available running backs is Marlon Mack, who had 1,999 yards and 17 rushing touchdowns in 2018-19 before tearing his Achilles in Week 1 of last season. We're told Mack is progressing well and plans to be a full participant in a training camp. He will test the market, as the case with most or all Colts.

Let Russ cool?

Seattle has a window to address its Russell Wilson problem with free agency. We're told the Seahawks are evaluating interior offensive line options and have some players in mind if the value is right.

Part of that process is procedural, as all teams scour the earth for talent. But there are people in Seattle's building who believe the Wilson relationship is salvageable, and coach Pete Carroll has been in contact with Wilson in recent weeks. They haven't had a formal sit-down to clear the air just yet, but the organization knows Wilson is watching the team's moves closely, and that means one thing, at least to him -- get me more protection.

One potential option we've heard that makes sense for a few reasons: Kevin Zeitler, recently released by the Giants. He was Wilson's teammate at Wisconsin; he can man the right guard spot, which would create a physical left side with Duane Brown and Damien Lewis; he's a player New York would've kept if not for the $12 million in cap savings for releasing him; and he's more affordable than, say, Joe Thuney. (We're also watching to see if Cincinnati, which lost Zeitler to free agency years ago, is interested in bringing him back to help protect Joe Burrow.)

Seattle's style isn't to spend big in March, which means it's possible it could sit tight and count on continued development from its draft picks. But with left guard Mike Iupati retiring and center Ethan Pocic eligible for free agency, the Seahawks are likely to add to the line mix at some point. Snagging one of the higher-profile cap casualties would be a very Seahawks-like move, and might send the message to Wilson that, hey, look, we're trying.

He's a catch

We're hearing most of the top receivers -- Kenny Golladay, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Corey Davis -- will test free agency, but a few have a chance to re-sign with their respective teams: Nelson Agholor with Las Vegas and Curtis Samuel with Carolina.

With DJ Moore and Robby Anderson hitting free agency in 2022, the Panthers could look to secure more receiver help now. (If they don't keep Samuel, look out for Jacksonville, where new coach Urban Meyer knows him from their Ohio State days.)

Agholor parlayed a one-year flier into a 2020 showcase, serving as Derek Carr's No. 1 wide receiver while rookie first-round pick Henry Ruggs was slow to develop. Agholor returning to the desert is not off the table after he put up 896 yards and eight touchdowns a year ago. The Raiders are poised to secure receiver help somewhere. Smith-Schuster should be intriguing to them.

We expect the Jets to explore signing receiver help, and they've evaluated Will Fuller, Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne, a favorite of new offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur from their time in San Francisco together.

Miami and Green Bay could be in play for former Colts wideout T.Y. Hilton, who caught 56 passes for 762 yards and five touchdowns last season.

Big man set to cash in big

Offensive tackle Trent Williams' agent classifies the 2020 campaign in blunt terms.

"B.O.Y. -- Bet On Yourself," Vince Taylor of Elite Loyalty Sports said this week.

Williams did just that after his exodus from Washington, agreeing to a reworked deal and a no-franchise-tag clause with San Francisco to facilitate a trade from Washington.

Now, after an impressive year, Williams is sitting comfortably as perhaps the best free agent in the pool. The 49ers got close to re-signing the 32-year-old in Week 17 of the regular season and have been trying again in recent days. That might require a deal that pays more than $20 million annually on a short-term deal, and many believe they will pay whatever it takes to keep Williams. It could go down to the wire, though.

And here's a sleeper team for Williams if he does leave the Niners: Indianapolis. That connection has some traction in league circles. Williams would seamlessly replace Anthony Castonzo -- he announced his retirement in January -- on the left side for a playoff team. Indy could fill the tackle spot in the draft, but with Carson Wentz in the fold and more than $40 million in cap space once Wentz's deal hits the books next week as part of the trade with Philly, a big move or two could be in play. The Colts' big splash last offseason was a trade that brought in defensive lineman DeForest Buckner from the 49ers. Could they pluck the star of San Fran's other line this time around?

Cornering the market

Word on Friday was that "the door is not shut" on a Shaquill Griffin return to Seattle, but the Seahawks aren't going to break the bank for him, and their best chance to keep him is if he doesn't find the kind of big money ($14.5 million to $16.5 million a year) on the open market that James Bradberry (Giants) and Byron Jones (Dolphins) found last year. Griffin and Cincinnati's William Jackson are two names we hear often when we ask which cornerbacks can get paid big money this offseason. Arizona's Patrick Peterson's pedigree could help him get a nice deal, too. But the list dries up quickly after that, and there's some thought that Griffin and Jackson aren't going to find the same kind of money the top corners found on the 2020 market.

Griffin has an intriguing free-agent profile. The 25-year-old is on a list of 12 corners to make a Pro Bowl before that age, which includes big names such as Jalen Ramsey, Tre'Davious White and Peterson). He's a durable four-year starter and eager tackler with six interceptions and 48 passes defended. If the high-end money isn't there, don't be surprised if one or both of Griffin/Jackson takes a one-year deal with an eye toward hitting the market again next year when the cap is expected to go back up.

There's some thought around the league that some of the second-tier and third-tier free-agent corners could find themselves in situations similar to the one Logan Ryan went through last year, when he remained unsigned through the summer and latched on with the Giants right before the season started. Of course, that worked out well for Ryan, who has since signed an extension with New York.

Ronald Darby might have just parlayed a one-year deal with Washington into an extension, as we hear Washington is looking to re-sign him.

Many people around the league are pegging an established vet corner with experience -- think Peterson or Richard Sherman or Xavier Rhodes -- to Las Vegas, which has talent but needs a leadership example on the back end. Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley is just one of Sherman's former defensive coordinators whose teams are looking for help. Dan Quinn, the new Cowboys defensive coordinator, is another. And Robert Saleh, the new Jets coach who was the 49ers' defensive coordinator, is the third. With connections in those three spots among others, Sherman could reunite with a former coach for the final stretch of his career.

The early feedback indicates that Steelers corner Mike Hilton has positioned himself at or near the top of the slot or nickel corner market. His ability to cover and blitz (9.5 sacks since 2017) makes him a seamless fit for a defense that plays heavy zone and brings pressure (think Bears, Packers, Chargers, Falcons or Eagles).

Rams corner Troy Hill, who plays inside and out, will be a factor in the market, as will Cincinnati's Mackensie Alexander, Tennessee's Desmond King and the Jets' Brian Poole.

Living on the edge

The Lions would love to retain edge rusher Romeo Okwara, but they opted not to tag him and believe he wants to see what's out there on the open market before deciding whether to return to Detroit. At age 25 and coming off a 10-sack season, Okwara could find offers from teams such as the Chargers, Rams, Falcons or Panthers that lure him away from Detroit. Would the Giants, who had the undrafted and underappreciated Okwara in their building for the first two years of his career but waived him at the end of training camp in 2018, try to bring him back?

Leonard Floyd had 10.5 sacks in his prove-it year with the Rams and should draw some interest on the market. We're watching the Chargers for him, as new coach Brandon Staley was Floyd's defensive coordinator with the Rams last year and was his position coach with the Bears earlier in his career. There's also some buzz that the cap-strapped Rams will try to retain him.

The Buccaneers will spend the next few days trying to lock up key in-house talent with the $19 million in new-found cap flexibility from Tom Brady's extension. That process starts with pass-rusher Shaq Barrett. That's the hardest deal to do because of the money involved and Barrett's plans to cash in as a top-shelf edge defender. Barrett, we're told, is looking for high-end pass rusher money, somewhere in the range of the top-five-to-seven defensive ends or outside linebackers. Some around the league believe he won't quite get there, but the Bucs give him the best chance to maximize his dollar.

What happens with Barrett and the Bucs will undoubtedly cause a ripple effect in the pass-rusher market. Other players are rooting for him to put up a big number in Tampa, which likely has a breaking point.

Teams that come up often in conversations about the pass-rush market are the Jets, Jaguars and Broncos, depending on what they decide with Von Miller's $18 million option. You can add Indianapolis, but we're not sure the Colts want to spend top-of-market money here. And watch out for New England. There's a feeling the Patriots are ready to spend at several spots. Yannick Ngakoue is a fit, as our Mike Reiss pointed out recently in our free-agency simulation game.

The Titans have to do something after the Vic Beasley and Jadeveon Clowney misses last year, and a pair of accomplished AFC North pass-rushers -- Matthew Judon and Bud Dupree -- could be in play there. Both players will get paid big as anchors in a 3-4 defense.

Watch out for Carl Lawson. He's not a huge name -- and he has an injury history -- but like Okwara he's only 25, and his combo of speed and power is resonating this time of year.

Playing it safe(ty)

The Saints' decision to franchise-tag safety Marcus Williams -- along with the Broncos' and Jets' decisions to tag Justin Simmons and Marcus Maye -- should be a big help to Rams free-agent safety John Johnson, who's the top option on the market now for teams looking for help at that position. He'd be a fit in Dallas, but the Cowboys don't seem inclined to spend at the top of the market for free agents and likely will look to middle-tier free agents and the draft to address their myriad needs on defense.

Anthony Harris (Vikings) and Rayshawn Jenkins (Chargers) are two other safeties who could attract interest on the open market.

Bookkeeping tricks

If you've been hearing the term "void years" connected with player contracts and are wondering what they mean, here's a little bit of a primer:

The NFL's salary cap rules allow teams to spread out the cap impact of player signing bonuses evenly for up to five years as long as the contract is that long. For example: You sign a five-year, $60 million contract with a $20 million signing bonus and salaries of $8 million each year. You get paid your $20 million signing bonus up front, but only one-fifth of it (along with the salary) counts against the cap each year. So your cap hits each year in this hypothetical contract would be $12 million. ($8 million salary plus $4 million, which is one-fifth of the signing bonus).

If you're doing a two-year contract but want to spread the signing bonus as thin as possible, you tack three "dummy years" or "void years" on the end and put in a clause that says the deal automatically voids before the start of the third year. So if our hypothetical from the previous paragraph was a five-year deal that voids after two, you'd have cap hits of $12 million in each of the first two years, and then you'd have a dead-money cap hit of $12 million in the third year (when the player is no longer on the team) because that's what would be left on the signing bonus proration.

The idea is not new. It just seems to be a bit more popular this year as teams work around the challenge of the reduced salary cap. Dak Prescott's four-year deal with the Cowboys is actually a six-year deal that automatically voids after four. This allows the Cowboys to spread the signing bonus hit out over the first five years and also will allow them to convert 2022 salary to signing bonus and spread that hit out over Years 2 through 6.

The Buccaneers have never been a team that relied on void years and signing bonus proration to get around the salary cap -- they're known as a "cash=cap team" that avoids dead money and cap commitments that linger after the player leaves. But the deal they did to keep linebacker Lavonte David and the deal they did to extend Brady both include void years, which means they'll be taking dead-money hits for those players in 2023 after the contracts void. That's the price of doing business as the Bucs try to keep their Super Bowl championship roster intact with a shrunken cap.

In addition to trying to keep Barrett, the Bucs are hoping they can keep Brady's buddy Rob Gronkowski in the fold. Even if they pull that off -- hardly a slam dunk -- they have a lengthy list of contributors poised to leave, from Ndamukong Suh to Leonard Fournette and Antonio Brown. Our guess is they let a few of these players test the market and scoop them up in free agency if they can. That is good business in the case of Brown, whose past behavior might make him radioactive to many teams.

Cry me Three Rivers

Having secured a pay cut from Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers are trying to piece together an offensive line in front of him as they inch toward getting under the salary cap. They signed B.J. Finney, who can potentially play center or guard as needed, and they've had conversations with left tackle Alejandro Villanueva about a return, though they haven't figured out the contract numbers yet.

Matt Feiler and Zach Banner are also free agents who'd have to be replaced if the Steelers can't bring them back. They are thought to have basically no chance to re-sign wide receiver Smith-Schuster or Dupree.

Trade talk

The already-reported trades of Jared Goff (Lions), Matthew Stafford (Rams), Carson Wentz (Colts) and Trent Brown (Patriots) will become official at the start of the league year on Wednesday, but they aren't likely to be the only trades.

• The Patriots are in a contract quandary with 2019 Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore, who's scheduled to make just $7 million in the final year of his deal and wants a new one. Teams are aware that Gilmore is available in trade, but they're also aware that anyone who trades for him likely will have to sign him to a new deal, which reduces the amount teams are willing to pay in a trade.

• Houston has had conversations with teams about linebacker Benardrick McKinney, who has three years left on his contract at a little more than $8 million per year but no more guaranteed money and an affordable $1.5 million dead-money hit to its cap should it decide to move on from him. (Note: The Dolphins and Texans have agreed to a trade, with Miami sending Shaq Lawson to Houston and receiving McKinney in return.)

• And Eagles tight end Zach Ertz has been bracing to be released or traded for a while now. His $8.25 million salary in the last year of his deal is good value.

Comeback not yet complete

Sources say veteran quarterback Alex Smith, recently released by Washington after his Comeback Player of the Year season, still wants to play and would prefer to go to a place where he could compete for a starting job. Where that is remains to be seen. Chicago? Denver? New England was on the list of potential landing spots before it signed Cam Newton.

Smith might have to wait to see if there's a vacancy in a spot like Houston or Seattle, or he might have to go somewhere and be a veteran backup/mentor type to a young player such as Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville, Tua Tagovailoa in Miami or one of the rookies who gets picked high in the 2021 draft.

What the market will Bear

Here's what we know about the Bears' tenuous quarterback situation: They are monitoring Russell Wilson developments but have combed the free-agent market for possibilities, too. The plan is to move on from Mitchell Trubisky -- we're told the door is open slightly but a source said the ship has sailed for both parties. The source sounded happy for Trubisky to get out of Chicago after all the heat he took. Now, Trubisky could apply his own heat -- perhaps in Denver as competition for Drew Lock.

Gun-for-hire Ryan Fitzpatrick could make some sense in Chicago as a one-year spark if all other options fail. Andy Dalton, too.

Which teams need linebackers?

Cleveland and Atlanta are among teams looking at the linebacker market. Former Charger Denzel Perryman could be in play at either spot.

We're also expecting Cleveland to look for pass-rush help but probably not at the top of the market. The Browns will make calculated moves under general manager Andrew Berry and coach Kevin Stefanski but will look to bolster multiple defensive spots.