NFL free agency always looks more appealing before teams begin to pull players from the market, either through franchise tags or new contracts. This month, it happened to more than a dozen members of ESPN's initial ranking of the top pending free agents, from Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott to Bears receiver Allen Robinson II and Broncos safety Justin Simmons.
The 2021 market has the added challenge of the first drop in team salary-cap limits in a decade, one prompted by reduced revenues during the COVID-19 pandemic. As of midweek, NFL teams had a cumulative projected total of about $385 million in available cap space -- about a third of what they have had in the week leading up to the market in previous years.
So when the negotiating period opens on Monday, we're expecting to see a bunch of interesting (if not elite) players scrambling for a much smaller pot of money. At the moment, the receiving and pass-rushing classes look pretty deep. That could change as some teams find space to re-sign key players, but what follows are some of the themes we're expecting to emerge. Here's what to look for in the 2021 NFL free-agency frenzy.
Jump to:
Bank-breakers | Pass-rushers
Wide receivers | Impacted by reduced cap
Potential value finds | Salary-cap situations
TOP FREE AGENTS AVAILABLE
1. Trent Williams, OT
2. Hunter Henry, TE
3. Yannick Ngakoue, Edge
4. Bud Dupree, Edge
5. Kenny Golladay, WR
6. Jonnu Smith, TE
7. Trey Hendrickson, Edge
8. Aaron Jones, RB
9. Shaquil Barrett, Edge
10. Corey Linsley, C
• See the full list of the top 100 available free agents for 2021.
MOST INTERESTING QB OPTIONS
There are no instant answers here following the Cowboys' agreement with Dak Prescott and a flurry of trades last month, but here's the best of the rest at the moment.
Jameis Winston
2020 team: New Orleans Saints | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Saints coach Sean Payton appears to favor Winston as the team's 2021 starter if Drew Brees retires. But as of yet, Brees hasn't retired, and Winston would be smart to see what is possible for him on the market before returning to the Saints without a guarantee of the starting job.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
2020 team: Miami Dolphins | Age entering 2021 season: 38
Fitzpatrick has a long history of exceeding expectations for teams that need either a temporary starter or backup who might actually need to play. In nine games for the Dolphins last season, Fitzpatrick compiled the NFL's fifth-best QBR (76.9).
Andy Dalton
2020 team: Dallas Cowboys | Age entering 2021 season: 33
Dalton might be the best suited for a role as either a short-term starter or competitive backup. It went largely unnoticed, but he led the Cowboys to a 3-3 record after Week 12, throwing 10 touchdown passes to four interceptions and ranking No. 15 in QBR (61.4) during that period.
Mitchell Trubisky
2020 team: Chicago Bears | Age entering 2021 season: 27
The NFL doesn't quickly give up on a top-five draft pick, even if the team that drafted him does. Fifty NFL starts and more than 1,500 career pass attempts have shown Trubisky to be an inaccurate passer. His instincts outside the pocket, however, could provide the base of a rebuilding project.
WILL BREAK THE BANK
We use that term loosely, of course, in a year when the salary cap has dropped.
Trent Williams, OT
2020 team: San Francisco 49ers | Age entering 2021 season: 33
His age is not ideal, nor is his injury history. But Williams has been one of the game's best left tackles for the past decade and showed last season, in his return to the field with the 49ers, that he is not close to being done. He is our top-ranked free agent on the market.
Hunter Henry, TE
2020 team: Los Angeles Chargers | Age entering 2021 season: 26
There is a long history in NFL free agency of teams throwing big money at second-tier tight ends in hopes they can blossom into stars in a different system. Henry is no second-tier tight end. He caught a career-high 60 passes for the Chargers last season and has the kind of ball skills -- at a still-young age -- that teams salivate over.
Kenny Golladay, WR
2020 team: Detroit Lions | Age entering 2021 season: 27
His contract year was a bust because of injuries, but decisions to franchise-tag Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson II left Golladay as arguably the best receiver and top playmaker on the market.
Jonnu Smith, TE
2020 team: Tennessee Titans | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Smith offers all kinds of mismatch opportunities and has a knack for finding the end zone; his eight touchdown receptions last season were the fourth most in the league by a tight end.
John Johnson III, S
2020 team: Los Angeles Rams | Age entering 2021 season: 25
The market's loss of Justin Simmons and Marcus Maye makes Johnson the top safety remaining. He played a big role in the Rams' defensive resurgence in 2020 and is a sleeper candidate to land a big contract.
Corey Linsley, C
2020 team: Green Bay Packers | Age entering 2021 season: 30
Entering free agency after the best season of his career, which ended with first-team All-Pro honors, Linsley could help a team make over its offensive line in a way that is not usually available in free agency.
WOULD HAVE BROKEN THE BANK IF NOT FRANCHISED
The franchise-tag deadline passed on Tuesday, with 10 players getting the tag, taking them off the market.
Justin Simmons, S
2020 team: Denver Broncos | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Simmons didn't give the Broncos any reason to give up on him after they made him their franchise player in 2020. He intercepted a career-high five passes, and his 16 interceptions since the start of the 2016 season are tied for the fifth most in the NFL over that period. Simmons would have been one of the top non-pass-rushers on the market.
Chris Godwin, WR
2020 team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Age entering 2021 season: 25
Only eight players have caught more touchdown passes than Godwin (23) since the start of the 2018 season. The Buccaneers decided he was too valuable, both in the short term during the Tom Brady era and the long term as a star who is still only 25, even with fellow receiver Mike Evans two years into an $82.5 million deal.
Allen Robinson II, WR
2020 team: Chicago Bears | Age entering 2021 season: 28
What could Robinson do with a high-end quarterback? We might never know. But Robinson was ready to cash in after catching 200 passes in the past two seasons, more than all but three NFL pass-catchers over that period. And he did it with Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Foles.
Leonard Williams, DL
2020 team: New York Giants | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Williams put up 11.5 sacks in his first full season with the Giants, providing the kind of interior disruption that teams dream about finding in free agency. The Giants were convinced enough to use the tag for a second consecutive season.
Brandon Scherff, G
2020 team: Washington Football Team | Age entering 2021 season: 29
After earning his fourth Pro Bowl honor, Scherff added his first All-Pro award in 2020. He's one of the game's top guards and has yet to turn 30 years old, so had he made it to the open market, there would have been heavy interest.
WHAT ABOUT THE PASS-RUSHERS?
Youngish edge players usually get paid in free agency, and there are a bunch of them in this class. But each member has holes on his resume.
Haason Reddick
2020 team: Arizona Cardinals | Age entering 2021 season: 26
A former first-round pick who had his fifth-year option declined, Reddick moved to outside linebacker in 2020 and burst onto the scene with five sacks in Week 14. In total, he racked up 7.5 sacks in the Cardinals' final four regular-season games. Was it a blip? The Cardinals opted instead to sign veteran J.J. Watt.
Bud Dupree
2020 team: Pittsburgh Steelers | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Dupree, who has 19.5 sacks since the start of the 2019 season, missed the final five games of 2020 because of a torn ACL. Injuries don't always preclude big contracts, but Dupree's next team will have more than the usual amount of due diligence to perform.
Yannick Ngakoue
2020 team: Baltimore Ravens | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Ngakoue spent parts of 2020 with three different teams, traded from Jacksonville to Minnesota and later to Baltimore. He finished with eight sacks, the third of his four seasons to have finished below double digits in that category. He had 12 sacks and six forced fumbles in 2017.
Shaquil Barrett
2020 team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Age entering 2021 season: 28
Barrett followed up his wild 2019 production of 19.5 sacks with an eight-sack season in 2020 as the Buccaneers' franchise tag. Is the league convinced he is an elite pass-rusher now? ESPN tracked him with a 12.2% pressure rate in 2020, sixth best in the NFL.
Leonard Floyd
2020 team: Los Angeles Rams | Age entering 2021 season: 28
On the one hand, you have Floyd's largely disappointing tenure with the Bears. On the other, you have his 10.5-sack season in his second chance with the Rams.
Romeo Okwara
2020 team: Detroit Lions | Age entering 2021 season: 26
A waiver claim in 2018, Okwara produced an eye-opening season in 2020 for a team that fell totally from the national radar. He recorded 10 sacks as a part-time starter. It wasn't a statistical fluke -- he recorded 7.5 sacks in 2018 -- but his career arc remains unknown.
Trey Hendrickson
2020 team: New Orleans Saints | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Like others on this list, Hendrickson has produced one eye-popping season. His happened to come in 2020, when he put up 13.5 sacks in his first season as a starter.
Carl Lawson
2020 team: Cincinnati Bengals | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Lawson's career-high in sacks came as a rookie in 2017 (8.5), and he became a starter in 2020 only after the Bengals traded Carlos Dunlap. ESPN tracked him with a pressure rate of 10.1%, good for 16th best in the league.
Jadeveon Clowney
2020 team: Tennessee Titans | Age entering 2021 season: 28
Clowney has had two really weird years. He recorded just three sacks in 13 games for the Seahawks in 2019 and none in eight games before a knee injury ended his 2020 season with the Titans. But he remains a bright, shiny option for some teams.
WIDE-RECEIVER-O-RAMA
Despite tags going to Chris Godwin and Allen Robinson II, and another deep draft class at the position, NFL teams could have quite a list of playmaking receivers to choose from.
Kenny Golladay
2020 team: Detroit Lions | Age entering 2021 season: 27
As mentioned earlier, Golladay is probably the best receiver on the market despite an injury-filled 2020 season. He ranked fifth in our list of the top players available.
Curtis Samuel
2020 team: Carolina Panthers | Age entering 2021 season: 25
Samuel emerged as a multi-positional player in 2020 who set career highs for receptions (77) and yards (851) while also getting 41 carries out of various formations.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
2020 team: Pittsburgh Steelers | Age entering 2021 season: 24
Smith-Schuster had a confounding contract year, but there is plenty of earlier tape of him playing as a high-end downfield receiver.
Will Fuller V
2020 team: Houston Texans | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Fuller has been an exasperating prospect over the past five seasons, mixing brilliant downfield plays with a series of injuries that have cost him 27 games over that span.
Nelson Agholor
2020 team: Las Vegas Raiders | Age entering 2021 season: 28
Agholor revived his career as a true downfield receiver in the Raiders' offense last season, finishing ranked No. 2 in the NFL in average yards per catch (18.7) and yards per target (15.4).
Corey Davis
2020 team: Tennessee Titans | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Eclipsed by A.J. Brown in the Titans' offense, Davis could use a fresh start. He is the kind of big receiver teams covet.
Adam Humphries
2020 team: Tennessee Titans | Age entering 2021 season: 28
Two disappointing years with the Titans led to his release, but it's worth noting that the Patriots heavily pursued Humphries two years ago and could do it again.
And don't forget about an even longer list of older receivers who might still have something left, including Antonio Brown, A.J. Green, T.Y. Hilton, DeSean Jackson and Golden Tate.
WOULD HAVE BEEN PAID IN A NORMAL YEAR
Almost everyone is going to get less money in 2020, but here are some players who could be particularly affected.
Gerald Everett, TE
2020 team: Los Angeles Rams | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Pass-catching tight ends are highly pursued on the market, but teams who have money to spend at the position will probably use it on Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith.
Russell Okung, OT
2020 team: Carolina Panthers | Age entering 2021 season: 32
There aren't usually many starting-caliber left tackles on the market, and Okung remains one of them. But teams looking to spend money for a left tackle will probably focus on Trent Williams and Alejandro Villanueva.
Joe Thuney, G
2020 team: New England Patriots | Age entering 2021 season: 28
Thuney is a really good player. But in a year in which teams will be squeezed, will anyone find it wise to spend available funds on a guard?
Matthew Judon, Edge
2020 team: Baltimore Ravens | Age entering 2021 season: 29
Judon managed six sacks after the Ravens applied their franchise tag for 2020, his lowest output since 2016. ESPN tracked him with the best pressure rate (14.5%) of any defender in the NFL last season, but with so many edge rushers on the market, you wonder if Judon will be the odd man out.
Patrick Peterson, CB
2020 team: Arizona Cardinals | Age entering 2021 season: 31
You could make a Hall of Fame argument for Peterson's career to this point. With that said, how much would you spend on a 31-year-old cornerback at a time when cap space is at a premium?
SOME UNFAMILIAR NAMES
Here are some players whose interest level doesn't match their name recognition.
Dalvin Tomlinson, DT
2020 team: New York Giants | Age entering 2021 season: 27
Tomlinson has started the Giants' past 64 games, is a better-than-average run defender and projects to have a long career.
Larry Ogunjobi, DT
2020 team: Cleveland Browns | Age entering 2021 season: 27
His flashes have been great, a sign that he could be a dominant 3-technique player. Teams often chase the promise of elevated interior disruption.
Jayon Brown, LB
2020 team: Tennessee Titans | Age entering 2021 season: 26
The Titans used Brown, undersized at 6 foot and 226 pounds, to a good degree of success as a cover linebacker. That's where lots of teams want to use their non-pass-rushing linebackers -- to help minimize mismatches.
Eric Wilson, LB
2020 team: Minnesota Vikings | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Wilson showed his versatility in 2020 while filling in for the injured Anthony Barr. While he isn't likely to get big money, Wilson could step into a starting job for a number of teams.
RUNNING BACK PENALTY
No one likes to pay free-agent running backs unless they are high-end receivers, and even then it's a toss-up.
Aaron Jones
2020 team: Green Bay Packers | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Unlike most of the heralded 2017 draft class of running backs, Jones hasn't agreed to a contract extension with his original team, despite having the second-best total of rushing yards (3,364) among them. That puts Jones atop a free-agent subcategory that most teams ignore.
Chris Carson
2020 team: Seattle Seahawks | Age entering 2021 season: 26
Carson is a two-time 1,000-yard rusher. But does any team care?
James Conner
2020 team: Pittsburgh Steelers | Age entering 2021 season: 26
He can be a bruising -- but injury-prone -- inside runner but has not yet broken 1,000 yards rushing in a season.
Kenyan Drake
2020 team: Arizona Cardinals | Age entering 2021 season: 27
In his first chance to be a team's No. 1 running back for an entire season, Drake rushed for a career-high 955 yards in 2020. He is a decent pass-catcher as well.
CURRENT SALARY-CAP SPACE SITUATION
These are the current cap-space numbers for the teams with the most and least room as of March 10.
Teams with the most cap space
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: $74,403,593
2. Indianapolis Colts: $72,900,607
3. New York Jets: $70,302,786
4. New England Patriots: $58, 956,719
5. Cincinnati Bengals: $43,913,987
Teams with the least cap space
1. New Orleans Saints: minus-$39,009,356
2. Los Angeles Rams: minus-$31,260,736
3. Philadelphia Eagles: minus-$28,145,969
4. Atlanta Falcons: minus-$22,055,452
5. Kansas City Chiefs: minus-$20,001,679