I would love to tell you that there are spoilers below for the 2020 NFL playoffs, but I know that's not true. It's incredibly difficult to predict how 13 NFL games will go. Last season, three of the four teams that were favored to win in the wild-card round lost. The world was waiting for a Ravens-Chiefs battle in the AFC Championship Game, but Baltimore was easily dispatched by Tennessee in the divisional round. If you had a perfect playoff bracket by the time the Chiefs beat the 49ers in Miami, well, you earned it.
This year as my preview for the playoffs, I'm going to lay out the 13-game bracket and predict the winners, all the way to Super Bowl LV. It will almost definitely be wrong and ruined by the time we get through the three opening games on Saturday, which is fine. Hopefully, there's insight in here that will give you stuff to look for in advance of the games, regardless of how the results actually go.
Let's start with the NFC and the first 7-seed in playoff history:
Jump to a playoff round:
Wild-card weekend: NFC | AFC
Divisional round: NFC | AFC
Conference championships: NFC | AFC
Super Bowl LV
NFC wild-card weekend
(7) Chicago Bears at (2) New Orleans Saints
The four-game stretch from Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky that set the hearts of NFL executives aflutter in December came against the teams ranked 14th (Vikings), 29th (Texans), 31st (Jaguars), and 32nd (Lions) in defensive DVOA. In the game against the Vikings, Trubisky was 15-of-21 passing for 202 yards with a touchdown and a pick. A late Trubisky fumble cost Chicago the game against the Lions. The fourth-year passer started and ended his run with games against the Packers, a team with a competent pass defense that requires the other team to throw to stay in the game. Trubisky averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, threw three interceptions and fumbled three times in those two games.
The Saints rank third in pass defense DVOA and second against the run, so chances are that running back David Montgomery won't be around to bail out Trubisky. The Bears have upped his play-action rate and gotten him on the edge more frequently during this most recent stretch as a starter, but the Saints have one of the postseason's most devastating edge combinations in Cameron Jordan and Trey Hendrickson. If Trubisky beats the Saints in New Orleans with a big game, the Bears might sign him to an extension on the 50-yard line in the Superdome. Prediction: Saints 31, Bears 10.
(6) Los Angeles Rams at (3) Seattle Seahawks
It's unclear whether the Rams will be able to call upon quarterback Jared Goff in this game, a move that would open up a second consecutive start for AAF star John Wolford. The 25-year-old was impressive as a scrambler against Arizona in Week 17, and after an interception on his first pass, he was careful enough with the football to avoid the traps the Cardinals tried to set for him in coverage. He also left multiple touchdowns on the field with underthrows or misses. The Rams expect to get back top receiver Cooper Kupp and star left tackle Andrew Whitworth, but running back Cam Akers wasn't effective last week in his return from a high ankle sprain.
Whether it's a compromised Goff or the inexperienced Wolford, the Seahawks have been dominating overmatched quarterbacks on defense over the past six weeks. They've gone 5-1 over that stretch while holding Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold, Dwayne Haskins, Goff and Nick Mullens to a league-best 1.29 points per possession. The Rams are second over that time frame, but as we saw in Week 16, Seattle might not need many points to win this one. Receiver Tyler Lockett had his biggest game in more than two months in Week 17, and with cornerback Jalen Ramsey expected to shadow DK Metcalf, another 90-yard performance could be what gets Seattle through to the next round. Prediction: Seahawks 24, Rams 10.
(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (4) Washington Football Team
Nobody is likely to pick a 7-9 team to win a playoff game, but that's short-sighted. Remember what happened the last time a team with a losing record made it to the playoffs? The 7-9 Seahawks were 10-point underdogs at home against the 11-5 Saints, who had beat them by 15 points during the regular season. Didn't matter. Seattle held New Orleans to field goals three times in seven red zone trips and hit two long touchdown passes from Matt Hasselbeck before sealing a 41-36 win with the one thing you do remember from that game, the Beastquake. Those Seahawks weren't a great team all season, but they were up to the task for one week.
Compared to that Saints-Seahawks game, it's much easier to construct a scenario in which Jack Del Rio's Washington defense gives the Buccaneers trouble. The book on frustrating quarterback Tom Brady has been clear for more than a decade now: get pressure, preferably without having to blitz. Brady ranks fifth in the league in QBR this season when opposing defenses don't get pressure on him. When they do get pressure? Brady's QBR is tied with Andy Dalton and Nick Mullens at 31st. Over the last six weeks, defensive end Chase Young & Co. are sixth in the league in pressure rate and third-best at creating pressure without blitzing.
I don't expect the Bucs to score much, but it was clear in Week 17 that Washington quarterback Alex Smith's mobility is severely compromised. I'd expect Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Todd Bowles to dial up A-gap pressure with his linebackers and defensive backs to try to force Smith out of the pocket while making Washington try to run into his top-ranked rush defense. Unless Washington can create 2-plus turnovers with its defense and special teams, I don't think it can do enough on offense to win. Prediction: Buccaneers 17, Washington 7.
AFC wild-card weekend
(7) Indianapolis Colts at (2) Buffalo Bills
The Colts will try to pull off an upset, presumably, by holding onto the football with their running game and keeping quarterback Josh Allen off the field. Jonathan Taylor is fully entrenched as Indy's primary back and ran for 253 yards last week, but that was against the Jaguars. Owing to a better run defense and their game scripts, the Bills haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher since Week 10. Allen deservedly has gotten plenty of attention, but the Buffalo defense has quietly gotten back on track since the team's Week 11 bye; it has improved from 22nd in defensive EPA per play before the bye to the fourth-best mark in football afterward.
Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has a sound, solid defense, but it might not match up well against Allen. The Colts have the fourth-best QBR allowed in the league when they get quarterbacks to throw within 2.5 seconds, but they fall to 29th when the quarterback gets more than 2.5 seconds to pick apart their zones. Allen ranks second in the league this season in completions and first in passing yards after holding the ball for more than 2.5 seconds. I'm just not sure I trust quarterback Philip Rivers' chances of holding up in a shootout if this game turns into one. Prediction: Bills 30, Colts 20.
(6) Cleveland Browns at (3) Pittsburgh Steelers
The Browns were already the weakest team in the playoff field, finishing the season 18th in DVOA while being outscored by their opponents. Their team has further been torn apart by positive COVID-19 tests, with multiple players and now coach Kevin Stefanski out for Sunday's game. The Steelers come into Sunday's game as well-rested as they've been since the opener.
Cleveland's play-action scheme doesn't match up well against the Steelers, whose QBR against play-action passes is 34 points better than any other team in football. Pittsburgh's biggest win of the season came at home against Cleveland in Week 6, and while the Browns responded with a 24-22 victory last week, that win came against backup quarterback Mason Rudolph and with many of Pittsburgh's stars inactive. The Browns have made huge strides in 2020, but their season ends here. Prediction: Steelers 34, Browns 7.
(5) Baltimore Ravens at (4) Tennessee Titans
If you believe the Titans have Baltimore's number and that quarterback Lamar Jackson isn't capable of winning in the playoffs, well, you're in the minority; the Ravens are 3-point favorites in Vegas despite losing to the Titans in the 2019 playoffs and again in Week 11. Both of those games were in Baltimore, and the Ravens will be making the short trip south to Nashville for their next attempt to forget the Titans.
Once again, the game seems to fall on Jackson's shoulders. There are reasons to think he might be up to the challenge. As good as Josh Allen has been, it's Jackson who has posted the league's best QBR over the last five weeks, with a 93.8 mark coming in just ahead of Allen and third-placed Ryan Tannehill. Jackson ranks sixth in play-action QBR over that time frame, and that's the new weak point for this Titans defense. Without a functional pass rush, Tennessee ranks last in the league in both QBR (93.5) and passer rating (140.8) against play-action passes.
In the divisional round last year, the Ravens dropped eight passes, failed on fourth-and-1 twice and went 1-for-4 in the red zone while the Titans went 3-for-3. This year, they could finally get their revenge. Prediction: Ravens 30, Titans 23.
NFC divisional round
(3) Seattle Seahawks at (2) New Orleans Saints
Seahawks fans might not be too worried about facing the Saints, given that they've beaten Sean Payton's team in both of their playoff matchups since Pete Carroll took over as coach. Those games were in Seattle, though, and this one is on the New Orleans turf. The Superdome isn't a fortress -- the Saints have lost their last two playoff games at home, and that was with a crowd full of fans in attendance -- but the good weather and sound footing make it more likely that these two teams will play a high-scoring game.
If we were confident that we were going to get a matchup of the way these two teams looked in September, the Seahawks would be favored. Over the second half, though, they rank 17th in points per drive, while the Saints rank eighth. Quarterback Russell Wilson has struggled to find his rhythm going downfield, as he has just five completions over that time across 20 attempts traveling 25 yards or more in the air. The combination of Drew Brees and Taysom Hill at quarterback for the Saints has nearly as many (four) completions on fewer than half the attempts (nine). The weak spot at right tackle with Cedric Ogbuehi also looms large for the Seahawks against pass-rusher Cameron Jordan.
Seattle has had stretches this season in which it was great on both offense and defense, but the only game it put both together came against the Jets in Week 14. If the Seahawks can get back their deep passing attack, they have a shot against a Saints team with a bad habit of committing pass interference penalties downfield. If the Wilson from the second half shows up, though, the Saints are too tough to beat without a complete effort. Prediction: Saints 30, Seahawks 20.
(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (1) Green Bay Packers
Packers fans are feeling good after their second consecutive 13-3 season and a first-round bye, but they'll be hoping for the Rams or Bears to pull an upset. Aaron Rodgers is my pick as MVP after an incredible season, but the only defense that gave him fits all season was these very Buccaneers in Week 6. Rodgers had 15 games with a passer rating of 90 or better and one with a mark of 35.4, when the Buccaneers picked him off twice, sacked him four times and limited him to 160 passing yards on 35 attempts in a 38-10 shellacking.
One game isn't proof that the same thing will happen, but the Bucs are a tough defense for anybody to face. Those Packers also had David Bakhtiari, and while Rodgers looked just fine without his star left tackle against the Bears, Tampa Bay might be a stiffer test of Green Bay's offensive line depth. That game was in Tampa, and this rematch will be at Lambeau, but Tom Brady is no stranger to cold weather games in January. The Bucs also gashed the Packers on the ground last time, with Ronald Jones running 23 times for 113 yards and two touchdowns.
How much does that first win really matter? Consider recent history. Since the league went to the 32-team format in 2002, when a team has beat another team by three scores (17-plus points) in the regular season and then faced that team again in the playoffs, they've gone 23-8 in the rematch, including 15 of the last 16. The last team to fall victim to this was, as you might remember, last year's Packers. The 49ers beat them 38-7 in the regular season and then followed things up with Raheem Mostert's four-touchdown performance in a 37-20 NFC Championship Game victory. It will likely be closer than that game, but the Bucs will pull off the upset here. Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Packers 20.
AFC divisional round
(3) Pittsburgh Steelers at (2) Buffalo Bills
This is a rematch from Week 14, when these defenses were near-perfect for most of the first half before the Bills found a solution just before halftime. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs got going as Josh Allen settled down, the Pittsburgh pass rush got tired and the Bills scored on four of their final five drives before kneeling in field goal range to end the game. The Pittsburgh offense scored a first-half touchdown on a short field, but it had only one drive of more than 40 yards all game. This was Buffalo's best defensive performance of the season by win probability added, ahead of its two games against the Jets.
The Steelers' offense isn't great, but it's not as bad as it looked against the Bills in December, when it went 1-for-10 on third downs. The signs of life it showed in the second half against the Colts, who have a better defense by DVOA than Buffalo, were promising. Getting a week off also probably helped a tired group of Pittsburgh veterans at quarterback and along the offensive line, although that might not matter against a weakened Browns team in the wild-card round.
It wouldn't shock me if we saw the Steelers' defense and Allen combine for something similar to the first matchup, when the Bills scored 19 points on offense (cornerback Taron Johnson had a pick-six to get the Bills to 26). I do think the Steelers will have more success throwing the football than they did the first time around, though, and that could be enough to lead to the upset. Prediction: Steelers 24, Bills 21.
(5) Baltimore Ravens at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
Next on the revenge tour for the Ravens would be beating the Chiefs, who have won all three of the matchups between Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes so far. The 2018 game went down to overtime, but the 2019 and 2020 battles haven't really been close, with the Ravens scoring 15 points in the fourth quarter last season to make things seem tighter.
On paper, Baltimore seems like the exact sort of team you would build if you wanted to beat Kansas City. It is very good at running the football, which attacks the Chiefs' biggest defensive weakness and should help keep Mahomes on the sideline. The Ravens have the speed and depth at cornerback to keep up with the Chiefs' many deep threats and the sort of exotic blitz packages a team might use to try to slow down Mahomes.
In practice, it hasn't worked that way. Jackson has run for 196 yards across the three games, but the Chiefs have cumulatively held the ball for longer than the Ravens. Don Martindale's system just hasn't been able to do anything to stop Mahomes, who has posted a 116.2 passer rating against them. Mahomes has completed more than 70% of his passes against Baltimore and thrown nine touchdowns against just one pick. The Chiefs had five different receivers top 60 yards in their win earlier this season. Martindale has blitzed 40% or more of the time in each of his three matchups against the Chiefs, and it hasn't worked.
I don't think the Ravens have the passing attack to keep up with the Chiefs in a shootout, and Mahomes has ripped their defensive formula apart. Unless Martindale & Co. come up with something new that works, the Chiefs will host another AFC Championship Game. Prediction: Chiefs 31, Ravens 20.
NFC Championship Game
(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at (2) New Orleans Saints
In an all-NFC South championship game, the Saints would be the ones with history on their side. They swept the Bucs this season, including a 38-3 win in Week 9 that was the single most impressive performance I saw from any team all season. It also fits the criteria mentioned above about teams that won by three or more scores and how successful they were in rematches. And while there's a famous adage about how it's tough for teams to beat one opponent three times in the same season, it's not really true. Since 1970, teams that beat one opponent twice in the regular season and got to play that team a third time in the playoffs have gone 14-7.
Furthermore, the Saints profile as a bad matchup for the Bucs on paper. They can get plenty of pressure with their front four. The Bucs love to blitz, but the Saints have one of the best offensive lines in football, and Drew Brees has the league's second-best QBR against the blitz over the last three seasons. Brees also rarely gives away the football, and while the Buccaneers were 8-2 when they forced at least two takeaways this season, they were only 4-3 otherwise. Too many factors point the Saints' way in what would probably be the last matchup between Brees and Tom Brady. Prediction: Saints 34, Buccaneers 14.
AFC Championship Game
(3) Pittsburgh Steelers at (1) Kansas City Chiefs
It seems like these two teams should have played more regularly in the Patrick Mahomes era, but their only prior matchup came in Week 2 of 2018, when the Chiefs star threw for six touchdowns in a 42-37 shootout. Ben Roethlisberger threw 60 times for 452 yards on the other side of the field that day, but if he tried to do that at the end of a season in 2021, his arm might fall off. If these two teams combine to approach 80 points, you would figure that the Chiefs are going to the Super Bowl. Can the Steelers keep this game from becoming a shootout?
They have a shot. Their pass rush is better now than it was at the start of 2018. The Chiefs aren't expected to get back star right tackle Mitchell Schwartz for the postseason, which means they would have Mike Remmers going up against likely Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt. We also saw the Falcons slow down the Chiefs in Week 16 with a scheme full of zone blitzes and sim pressures, crowding the line of scrimmage and then rushing four while dropping linemen and linebackers into coverage. The Steelers aren't coordinated by zone blitz forefather Dick LeBeau anymore, but some of those pressures are still lurking in their playbook. I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar approach from Pittsburgh if it plays Kansas City again.
The problem for the Steelers is the same issue they've been stuck with in prior postseasons: they don't have an answer for an athletic tight end. The Patriots beat the Steelers with Rob Gronkowski, which led the Steelers to draft Ryan Shazier. With Shazier's career sadly coming to an end in 2017, Travis Kelce hit the Steelers for 109 yards and two touchdowns in 2018. The Steelers drafted Devin Bush to take away tight ends, but he is out for the year with a torn ACL. I'm not sure Pittsburgh has anyone who can cover Kelce, and that's the difference in this game. Prediction: Chiefs 30, Steelers 24.
Super Bowl LV
New Orleans Saints vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Drew Brees vs. Patrick Mahomes. Michael Thomas vs. Travis Kelce. Marshon Lattimore vs. Tyrann Mathieu. Sean Payton vs. Andy Reid. This would be a pretty fun matchup, huh? These teams just met in Week 15, with the Chiefs pulling out a 32-29 victory. It was Brees' return from missing several games with broken ribs, and he completed just 44.1% of his pass attempts. It might actually be seen as a positive for the Saints that they were able to score 27 points on offense with Brees still getting back into game shape. He completed nearly 71% of his passes over the final two weeks of the season, so there's no reason to think he would struggle quite as much in a Super Bowl rematch.
The Saints' game plan on defense was simple: take away the big plays. They won that battle but lost the war. The Chiefs' biggest play of the day was a 24-yard Mahomes scramble, but Kansas City was able to get five yards at will. Mahomes was just 26-of-47 for 254 yards, but the Chiefs' lead backs ran the ball 29 times for 141 yards. The offense converted half of its third downs and held the ball for a whopping 41 minutes.
Where the Chiefs won the game -- and where this game would end up being decided -- is in the red zone. Both of these defenses have been terrible there this season, with the Saints ranking 29th in touchdown rate inside the 20 and the Chiefs last. Kansas City scored touchdowns on its first four red zone trips and a field goal on their fifth. New Orleans made it to the red zone only three times, but scored touchdowns in each of its trips.
Red zone performance is relatively random from year to year, and regular-season performance might not mean much in the red zone come January. One notable example here is the 2019 Chiefs, who ranked 20th in red zone touchdown rate in the regular season. They then fueled three straight comeback victories in the playoffs by dominating in the red zone, scoring 12 touchdowns in 14 trips. They were a great offense, so it shouldn't have been a surprise that they would improve inside the red zone during the postseason.
Of those two defenses in 2020, if you had to pick one to get better in the red zone in the weeks to come, the Saints would be the obvious choice. They rank second in overall defensive DVOA, while the Chiefs rank 22nd. The Chiefs are always going to get theirs on offense, but if the Saints can turn a Chiefs red zone trip or two into field goals instead of touchdowns, the formula they used to try to beat Kansas City in December might actually work in February. I think the Saints are the most complete team in the league, which is why they're my pick to win Super Bowl LV. Prediction: Saints 24, Chiefs 20.