Quarterbacks alone can't make a Super Bowl run, but let's be honest, they're the biggest factor and it isn't close. And so, heading into the 2020 NFL playoffs, let's rank the players at the most important position for all 14 teams.
I'm ranking these quarterbacks in the order that I'd want them to be the signal-caller for my team in these playoffs, which might not exactly align with who performed the best during the regular season. In other words: how good they are now, not how good they were then.
To do this, I'm relying on a few advanced metrics, chief among them QBR, our in-house expected points added-based metric that helps account for important context. I'll also rely heavily on information from NFL Next Gen Stats, most notably completion percentage over expectation, and data from ESPN's video tracking team.
I'm including all 14 quarterbacks' biggest strengths and weaknesses, and ESPN's NFL Nation reporters also chimed in with what's at stake during these playoffs for every QB.
Jump to a playoff QB:
Allen | Brady
Brees | Goff | Jackson
Mahomes | Mayfield | Rivers
Rodgers | Roethlisberger | Smith
Tannehill | Trubisky | Wilson
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Season at a glance: All Mahomes did in the season after he won Super Bowl MVP was set a career high in QBR (83). And because the Chiefs pass so frequently -- they had a 70% dropback rate when their win probability was between 10% and 90%, second highest in the league entering Week 17 when Mahomes rested -- he generated the most EPA (expected points added) for his team of any player in the league. There's a legitimate debate between Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers for MVP, but it's an easy choice to put Mahomes at No. 1 in these rankings because of his recent history of outstanding play stretches for three seasons.
Biggest strength: Mistake avoidance. While Mahomes produces incredible highlight-reel plays, what makes him special is his ability to pull that off without incurring huge negatives. His 1% interception rate is second lowest in the league, while his 3% sack rate is third lowest, which is particularly wild given that he was under pressure on 34% of dropbacks. He also has a better-than-average fumble rate. And Mahomes does all that while attempting passes at an above-average depth of target and adding the second-most EPA on scrambles, behind only Kyler Murray.
Biggest weakness: Completion rates. Weird, right? Even after adjusting for the throws Mahomes is making, he has actually posted mediocre completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) numbers throughout his career, always hovering right around expectation. Similarly, his off-target throw rates are middle of the pack. Not that any of that is a real cause for concern. Mahomes is so wildly effective at every other part of the position that it just isn't a problem.
You know how in a job interview you're supposed to turn "biggest weakness" into a strength? I'm about to do that for Mahomes. He has the highest rate of pass attempts on third down that reach or go beyond the line to gain. In other words, he doesn't bother with short passes that garner a completion but aren't actually that valuable. It hurts his completion rates, but it's also the right choice.
What's at stake for Mahomes (via Chiefs reporter Adam Teicher): The list of quarterbacks who have won back- to-back Super Bowl championships contains seven names, and all are either in the Hall of Fame or a lock to eventually get there. Mahomes is on a path to Canton anyway, but two straight titles would boost his effort.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Season at a glance: Though it doesn't feel like it because Rodgers was already a superstar, 2020 was a remarkable turnaround for the future Hall of Famer. He finished 20th and 16th in QBR in 2019 and 2018, respectively, and at age 36 entering the season (he's 37 now), it wasn't unreasonable to think the elite version of Rodgers was gone for good. That turned out to be false. He was brilliant in 2020 and will either be the league MVP or runner-up, and it's well deserved. As I mentioned above, there's a legitimate case that Rodgers was the best QB this season, but I'd rather have Mahomes for these playoffs given his multiyear recent track record of stellar play.
Biggest strength: Mistake avoidance. There's an interesting similarity between Mahomes and Rodgers in this way. I mentioned that Mahomes ranked third and second in interception rate and sack rate; Rodgers ranked No. 1 in both. Green Bay has the best pass-protecting offensive line in the league, but Rodgers cuts out almost all negative plays.
Another strength for Rodgers is play-action. He ranks first in QBR on play-action plays. He ranks first in other QBR splits, too, of course, but I bring up play-action because this is a change for Rodgers and a big part of his 2020 re-breakout. Over the four seasons prior to 2020, he ranked 36th among quarterbacks on play-action QBR, including 26th in 2019. Not only has he been efficient on play-action, but the Packers are utilizing it more often -- at the sixth-highest percentage of their dropbacks this season as opposed to 15th highest last season.
Biggest weakness: A quick pass rush. The Packers led the league in pass block win rate, but when the opponent did earn at least one pass rush win on a play, Rodgers ranked just 18th in QBR (a contrast to Mahomes, who ranked first when that was the case). Once a win happens, there are two ways the play can go: If Rodgers can get out of the pocket and/or scramble, he still had a lot of success (over those few plays). But if he's trapped in the pocket when a pass rush win has occurred, he actually has one of the worst QBRs in the league. That's a split of a split, so we're talking an extremely small sample, but the same pattern holds true if we look at the category over the past three years.
What's at stake for Rodgers (via Packers reporter Rob Demovsky): Rodgers already has one Super Bowl ring. Another would separate him from, among others, Brett Favre as a two-time champion. Favre reached two Super Bowls but won only one. And then there's Rodgers' future in Green Bay. With 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love in town, how much longer does Rodgers have here?
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Season at a glance: Prior to 2020, skeptics of the "Let Russ Cook" movement proffered concerns that a heavier reliance on Wilson would result in worse outcomes for the Seahawks. That take was theoretically unfounded and made evidentially false by Wilson's 2020. In a heavier passing environment, he recorded the highest QBR of his career (though not his highest in terms of rank) since his rookie season. One could make the argument that higher dropback rates contributed to Wilson's drop in efficiency in the second half of the season, but even if that were the case, it was worth it. The Seahawks' offensive EPA per play was 0.12, the highest it has been in the Wilson era.
Biggest strength: Deep-ball passing. There's a reasonable argument for Josh Allen to occupy the No. 3 spot in these rankings, but the upside of Wilson's beautiful and precise downfield passing game pushes him over Allen for me. Wilson's completion percentage over expectation on passes 20-plus yards downfield was plus-8 percentage points. In other words, given the deep throws Wilson made, we'd expect an average quarterback to complete 31% of them, but he actually completed 39%. Combined with the fact that Wilson attempted those deep throws at the sixth-highest rate in the league, the result is that he finished second in completed air yards over expectation on deep passes with plus-225.
Biggest weakness: Taking sacks. Wilson invites pressure, which in and of itself is not really a problem because he's so adept at turning nothing into something (or nothing into amazing). But what is an issue is Wilson's sack rate over 7%, which is an annual drag on his QBR. It's a contrast to Mahomes, who also invites pressure but consistently manages to avoid sacks.
What's at stake for Wilson (via Seahawks reporter Brady Henderson): A second Super Bowl title would cement Wilson as a Hall of Famer. And unlike the first one, no one could downplay the accomplishment as Wilson merely being a game manager on a team with an all-time defense. Even a deep run in the playoffs could ease Wilson's frustration that has built with early exits in his past four trips to the postseason.
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Season at a glance: Count me among the Allen skeptics who were dead wrong. Actually, I was wrong twice: I thought he'd be a bust coming out of college at Wyoming and also thought he was destined for either mediocrity or failure after last season. Not so. Allen became a legitimately stellar quarterback in his third season -- he threw 37 touchdown passes and only 10 interceptions -- and is good enough to lead his team to a Super Bowl run. At its peak, the Bills offense is downright scary.
Biggest strength: It's incredible how many areas in which Allen was a top-10 performer: QBR against the blitz or not against the blitz, against pressure or not against pressure, against man, against zone, using play-action, on third down. But I want to highlight an area of remarkable improvement: accuracy. It was deemed a weak point for him a few years ago, but in 2020 he led the league in completion percentage over expectation and completed air yards over expectation. His off-target rate is middle of the road, but that's a far cry from his worst-in-the-league ranking in the same metric a year ago.
Biggest weakness: Inviting pressure. Despite playing behind a solid offensive line, Allen was pressured at the highest rate in the league this season. He held the ball for the second-longest average time in the league, so that's an awfully clear indicator of why the pressure occurs. While Allen was good even in the face of pressure, every quarterback is worse when under duress.
What's at stake for Allen (via Bills reporter Marcel Louis-Jacques): Changing the narrative. Not just about him, either, but about Buffalo -- a punching bag since 1993. Bringing a Super Bowl to a city that famously lost four in a row would be an incredible (and perhaps unpredictable) outcome for a quarterback few people believed would develop into a solid NFL starter, never mind an MVP candidate. Allen is undoubtedly the latter after the greatest statistical season in franchise history and can change the perception around him and the Bills for good with a deep playoff run, especially with the thought of last season's wild-card loss to Houston still fresh in people's minds.
5. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Season at a glance: I think this is the right spot for Jackson, but it also scares me to even rank him this low. Because while Jackson's struggles early in the season limited the Baltimore offense, last season's regular-season MVP is scorching hot now and his upside -- as made apparent by his 2019 season -- is as high as even Mahomes at the top of his game. Even if we took designed runs and scrambles away, Jackson finished the season with four straight games of a QBR over 80 on only pass and sack plays.
Strength: His legs. No quarterback added more expected points added on designed runs this season than Jackson. But let me put into perspective just how valuable his runs are. The Titans average 0.05 expected points added per Derrick Henry rush with a 40% success rate. The Ravens average 0.21 expected points added on Jackson designed runs with a 57% success rate. In other words, even analytics nerds will tell you running is good -- as long as the ball is in Jackson's hands.
Weakness: Fumbling. His 1.7% fumble rate (with passes, sacks, scrambles or designed runs as the denominator) is one of the highest among quarterbacks in the league. That might be a little unfair given his style of play, but the majority of his fumbles were on sacks, handling the snap or on option handoffs. Jackson is still a wildly productive player, but fumbles are a risk that come with him.
What's at stake for Jackson (via Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley): Jackson has won more regular-season games (30) than any other quarterback since taking over as the Ravens' starter in the middle of the 2018 season. But he's 0-2 in the playoffs with five turnovers. A victory will stop the narrative that Jackson can't win when it matters most. A loss will only expound it.
6. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Season at a glance: Entering the season, Brady and the Bucs faced two major questions: Was his poor 2019 a sign of Brady's end? And how would he adapt to Bruce Arians' offense? Ultimately the answers to both worked out fairly well for both sides. Brady bounced back, ranking 10th in QBR. And he was able to be productive with all the vertical passes in his new offense; on a high volume of throws, Brady also ranked 10th in QBR on vertical routes.
Biggest strength: Targeting in-breaking routes. By Next Gen Stats' measure, Brady recorded 0.47 EPA per play, far more efficient than out-breaking routes or non-horizontally breaking routes (go routes, hitches and more). The problem is that strength isn't maximized by Arians' offense. For example, despite having the second-best QBR on crossing routes, Brady threw them at one of the lowest rates in the league and almost exactly half as often as Rodgers.
Biggest weakness: Handling pressure. Brady's QBR dropped to second worst in the league, ahead of only Joe Burrow, when he was under duress. But that's less of a problem than it might seem as Brady faced pressure just 17% of the time, the second-lowest rate in the league.
What's at stake for Brady (via Bucs reporter Jenna Laine): Brady has already won six Super Bowls, but never with a team other than the New England Patriots, with a coach other than Bill Belichick or on the road as a wild-card team. He has also never done it in an offense that takes so many risks downfield and without the benefit of an offseason. Make no mistake about it -- coming to Tampa Bay was a huge risk. Yet somehow, Brady has led the Bucs to just their fourth 11-win season in franchise history and first postseason appearance in 13 seasons.
7. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Season at a glance: Tannehill has answered plenty of skeptics in terms of his long-term prospects as a high-end quarterback. He finished fourth in QBR and did it behind what ranked as a below-average unit in terms of pass block win rate. He plays in a run-heavy, play-action-heavy scheme that helps his efficiency. If we filter out play-action plays, Tannehill drops to eighth in QBR.
Biggest strength: Accuracy. Tannehill was the CPOE king a season ago, with his passing game fueling his breakout. He hasn't quite reached the same echelons of the metric this season -- he's still above average -- but one number stood out to me: his off-target rate, as measured by ESPN's video tracking team. His 12.5% off-target rate is the third lowest in the league only behind Teddy Bridgewater and Rodgers.
Biggest weakness: Facing the blitz and being pressured. He drops to 16th in QBR when facing the blitz and 22nd when pressured, so it's clear that Ravens defensive coordinator Wink Martindale will be looking to disrupt Tannehill in the wild-card matchup. Tannehill has made strides in a related area, as his sack rate is 4.6%, down from 9.4% last season when he had a better pass-protecting line.
What's at stake for Tannehill (via Titans reporter Turron Davenport): Tannehill turned his career around last season in Tennessee. Now it's time to take the next step. He must show that he can take his team deep into the postseason, and that will cement his status as an elite NFL quarterback.
8. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Season at a glance: Even at age 41, Brees put together another strong season, finishing sixth in Total QBR, despite a slightly less efficient short passing game than usual. He missed a big chunk of the season with broken ribs and a collapsed lung, and Taysom Hill was far less effective (QBR of 59 compared to Brees' 74) in his stead. Brees had his worst game of the season upon returning -- a home loss to the Chiefs -- but played well in the final two games.
Biggest strength: Mistake avoidance. I started to write his "short, quick passing game" out of habit, but the closer I looked, the more it became clear that it wasn't as great a strength as it had been for Brees in the past. The Saints' quarterback had just a plus-1% CPOE on passes of 0-9 air yards. The five routes he threw more often than league averages -- drags, short outs, angles, swings and running back checkdowns -- garnered roughly average production this season. And his QBR on passes under 2.5 seconds was 70, below his overall average and near a career low. Instead, his overall strong QBR was mostly buoyed by low sack and interception rates.
Biggest weakness: The deep ball, same as previous years. Brees attempted just 18 passes over 20 yards downfield all season, and so opponents know it's basically not an option in the Saints' offense when he is at quarterback. This is not new and the Saints have had plenty of success even with this being the case. But it means his short-game accuracy and mistake limitation are absolute requirements.
What's at stake for Brees (via Saints reporter Mike Triplett): Maybe it's a stretch to say Brees' legacy is at stake, since he has already cemented himself as one of the greatest players in NFL history. But a second Super Bowl ring could secure his place among the most elite tier of GOATs. After 20 NFL seasons, there are strong indications that this will be his final run. Brees turns 42 on Jan. 15.
9. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Season at a glance: Mayfield was in a quarterback-friendly situation this season, with a strong offensive line, stellar running game and a decent dose of play-action. But he deserves credit, because while those factors raise the floor for a quarterback, he was helpful to the Browns in his own right, finishing ninth in QBR and 10th in CPOE.
Biggest strength: Play-action. Mayfield recorded the second-highest QBR when using play-action this season. He also ranked third in QBR when outside the pocket. Coach Kevin Stefanski -- who tested positive for COVID-19 and won't be with the team Sunday -- likes to use both play-action and rollouts, so the Browns got their fair share of production out of these offensive components.
Biggest weakness: Playing from behind. When Cleveland's win probability dipped below 20%, Mayfield's QBR fell to 30th in the league. Presumably, the lack of a threat of the run game (and thus largely removing play-action) is a factor there, though I expected to also find Mayfield struggling on third-and-long and fourth-and-long as a result, but that actually wasn't the case.
What's at stake for Mayfield (via Browns reporter Jake Trotter): In a pivotal third season, Mayfield has positioned himself as Cleveland's long-term answer at quarterback following two decades of perpetual upheaval at the position. But if he also quarterbacks the team to a playoff win -- in Pittsburgh! -- the Browns will have to pursue a long-term extension for the former No. 1 overall pick.
10. Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts
Season at a glance: Finally playing behind a decent offensive line, Rivers bounced back some (production-wise) from his relatively poor final campaign with the Chargers in 2019. QBR, which ranked Rivers 19th, likes him worse than the overall Indianapolis passing offense (which ranked 10th in EPA per play) because the Colts had the second-highest percentage of YAC yards among all teams, behind only Washington.
Biggest strength: Beating the blitz. Rivers gets rid of the ball quickly -- 2.5 seconds on average -- and therefore opponents have little chance of getting to him with their blitzes. He has the fifth-lowest sack rate and, better yet, the fourth-highest QBR when opponents send extra rushers.
Biggest weakness: Beating zone coverage. One reason might be scheme. For example, the Colts run a ton of screens -- they make up 12% of his pass attempts -- and screen passes perform a bit worse against zone than man.
What's at stake for Rivers (via Colts reporter Mike Wells): The veteran quarterback hasn't ruled out playing an 18th NFL season, but that might not be his choice when it comes to staying in Indianapolis if he goes into Buffalo and plays poorly. Rivers, who signed a one-year contract with the team last March, was on his way to having just the third single-digit-interception season of his career until he threw picks in each of the final two games of the season. The Colts can't risk bringing him back if he has another shaky performance on Saturday.
11. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
Season at a glance: We're putting Goff in this list, though it's not yet clear if Goff -- who underwent surgery on his throwing-hand thumb after Week 16 -- or John Wolford will make the start against the Seahawks. This season, Goff bounced back a little from his 2019 struggles, but he still finished ranked only 23rd in QBR and with an average CPOE. His ceiling is limited: Even in his career year of 2018, he ranked 10th in QBR.
Biggest strength: Throwing from outside the pocket. Goff had more designed rollouts (50) than any other quarterback this season and added another 38 scramble rollouts as well. When outside the pocket, Goff recorded the seventh-highest QBR.
Biggest weakness: Extended plays and the deep ball. Goff ranks 30th and 32nd in QBR on plays that last at least four seconds before a throw or sack and passes 20-plus yards downfield, respectively.
What's at stake for Goff (via Rams reporter Lindsey Thiry): He could return to prove not how tough he is -- he has already proved that -- but that he can turn an inconsistent season around. With 38 turnovers since 2019 (second most in the league), Goff must reestablish himself as a good decision-maker whom the Rams can depend on to lead them to deep playoff runs through the remainder of his contract.
12. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
Season at a glance: Now in the twilight of his career, the 2020 version of Roethlisberger has turned into an extremely quick thrower, firing off his passes in a league-low 2.3 seconds. It has helped him avoid sacks behind a porous offensive line, but overall it hasn't been a particularly successful season. He ranked just 22nd in QBR and was carried to the postseason by the Pittsburgh defense.
Biggest strength: Handling pressure. He ranks eighth in QBR against pressure and has, incredibly, the lowest sack rate in the league despite the Steelers ranking 28th in pass block win rate. The issue for Roethlisberger is that his production hasn't been all that much higher when he hasn't been under pressure.
Biggest weakness: The deep ball. His 70 QBR on passes 20 yards or more downfield ranks 25th; remember, if a quarterback is throwing a deep ball, a lot has already gone right on the play, so QBRs are inflated.
What's at stake for Roethlisberger (via Steelers reporter Brooke Pryor): Roethlisberger, 38, already defied the odds coming back from significant elbow surgery to lead the Steelers to an undefeated start and another AFC North title. A deep run in the playoffs -- the ultimate goal being another Super Bowl title -- would be the storybook ending for an already improbable season.
13. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
Season at a glance: Trubisky was pulled for Nick Foles early in the season before Foles could not elevate the Bears' offense, and then the team went back to Trubisky starting in Week 12 and it did help. Chicago ranked 29th in EPA/pass play up until Week 12 and is 13th since that point. While the Bears might have had some easy competition, Trubisky's QBR -- which adjusts for the quality of defenses faced -- was 66 in that stretch, which was 11th best in the league.
As you can tell by the ranking, I'm not sold on him. The Bears dialed up a ton of play-action and relied on short, quick throws, a strategy that makes sense to maximize the abilities of Trubisky. But he's not someone I'd be thrilled about entering the playoffs with or want to rely on next season.
Biggest strength: Quick passing. When Trubisky got the ball out in under 2.5 seconds this season, he ranked fourth in QBR. But if he held the ball for over 2.5 seconds? He dropped all the way down to 29th. That quick passing game is presumably why he actually performed well against the blitz, too.
Biggest weakness: Vertical passing game. Just take a look at Trubisky's CPOE numbers by depth:
Behind the LOS: plus-1%
0-9 air yards: plus-4%
10-19 air yards: plus-2%
20-plus air yards: minus-15% (!)
When targeting receivers running vertical routes, Trubisky had the lowest QBR among qualifying passers as well.
What's at stake for Trubisky (via Bears reporter Jeff Dickerson): Trubisky's future as a starting quarterback is at stake. He might be done in Chicago -- the Bears already declined the 2017 second overall pick's fifth-year option -- but a strong performance against New Orleans in the wild-card round would help build the case that he deserves to be a starting quarterback somewhere in the NFL in 2021.
14. Alex Smith, Washington Football Team
Season at a glance: Smith's presence on the field at all this season is an incredible triumph, and he deserves endless credit for his determination in his comeback. Washington ended up needing him, too! In quantifying his play, however, Smith was better than second-year quarterback Dwayne Haskins, but that is a low bar to clear. Even if you didn't want to trust QBR, other numbers are pretty clear: Smith finished in the bottom five among passer rating-qualified quarterbacks in yards per dropback, interception rate, sack rate and first down rate.
Biggest strength: Intermediate passing. Smith threw medium-depth passes (10 to 20 air yards) at the lowest rate in the league, but he was efficient doing so. He posted a 97 QBR and a plus-15% CPOE on those throws.
Biggest weakness: Frankly, most everything else. Smith's average depth of target was almost an entire yard shorter than any other quarterback, but even short throws were not efficient for him. Against the blitz or not, pressured or not, play-action or not, his QBR splits were poor almost any way you slice it.
What's at stake for Smith (via Washington reporter John Keim): After returning from his 2018 leg injury, Smith's legacy is set as it extends beyond tangible on-field success, and Washington really isn't equipped to make a long run. He helped breathe life into a franchise that needed quite a bit. But if he wants to continue playing in the NFL -- his contract has two more years -- playing well in a playoff game would help. It could also convince him his NFL time is done and the next phase awaits.