Week 17 of the NFL season is here, and there are still seven playoff spots up for grabs. There are several teams facing win-or-go-home games. The Browns need a victory at home against a Steelers team that will rest Ben Roethlisberger. The Cardinals and Rams need to beat each other to get into the postseason, and L.A. will be without Jared Goff, who broke his thumb last week. The Colts have a home game against a one-win Jaguars team with nothing to play for. It's a huge week as we head into next weekend's wild-card matchups.
Let's run through some key matchups on the final day of the regular season, focusing on game-plan keys, scheme, personnel and coaching for all of the teams facing must-win games.
We'll start with the two games in which both teams need to win to make the playoffs, with the NFC East and NFC wild-card spots still undecided:
Jump to a matchup:
DAL-NYG | WSH-PHI | ARI-LAR
MIA-BUF | PIT-CLE | BAL-CIN
GB-CHI | HOU-TEN | JAX-IND
Cowboys (6-9) at Giants (5-10)
Why this matchup matters: The winner of this game (1 p.m. ET, Fox) will be the NFC East champ ... if Washington loses to Philadelphia on Sunday night. If Washington wins, both the Cowboys and Giants will miss the playoffs.
What Dallas needs to do to win: Attack the Giants' zone coverage schemes
Unlike last week, when Dallas saw a lot of single-high man-coverage and favorable matchups in a blowout win over the Eagles, Patrick Graham's New York defense will play more zone coverage against the Cowboys' talented pass catchers. Think Cover 3 and Cover 2 here, mixing in some 2-Man on critical down situations. I would anticipate more boot with quarterback Andy Dalton, which caters to his ability to throw on the run, plus Hi-Lo reads to influence the Giants' underneath defenders. That allows the Cowboys to run intermediate in-breakers and flood concepts with both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb, plus take shots on long balls to Michael Gallup, who had two scores against Philadelphia. The Cowboys will also need running back Ezekiel Elliott to get going on zone runs out of 12 (two tight ends) and 11 (one tight end) personnel, and I would give backup Tony Pollard some touches as well. He has explosive traits as a runner and receiver.
Defensively, I look at the linebacker position. Both Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch (or Sean Lee, if Vander Esch misses the game with his ankle injury) need to fit their run gaps and be violent at the point of attack. Stack, shed and find the football -- New York is going to run power right at them.
What New York needs to do to win: Pound the ball and set up play-action for QB Daniel Jones
Like I mentioned, the Giants are going to run the ball with Wayne Gallman and Alfred Morris. And they should against a Dallas defense that has struggled versus the run, giving up an average of 161.1 rushing yards per game, which ranks last in the NFL. Line up with multiple tight ends to test this Cowboys front seven. Off those runs, the Giants can set up easy play-action, high-percentage throws for Jones, who needs to protect the football.
Can the Giants' secondary play with discipline? If they allow the Cowboys' wide receivers to get loose, Dalton & Co. can create explosive plays to flip the field. Again, expect a zone-heavy approach from the New York defense. It's all about alignment, assignment and responsibility. The Cowboys have won three straight games, while the Giants have lost three straight.
Cardinals (8-7) at Rams (9-6)
Why this matchup matters: The Cardinals can clinch a playoff spot with a win in this game (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). The Rams can clinch with a win or a loss by the Bears.
What Arizona needs to do to win: Give QB Kyler Murray defined throws from the pocket
Murray has to be more consistent throwing from the pocket, particularly because of the multiple fronts from the Rams' defense. This is where coach Kliff Kingsbury can define it for Murray by attacking the outside curl voids with DeAndre Hopkins out of 3x1, running Hi-Lo in the middle of the field and mixing in some deep crossers -- while occupying the Quarters safeties -- to create open windows and explosive-play throws for Murray.
In addition to the quick throws/spacing concepts that will get the ball out of Murray's hands, the QB run game needs to factor in here. In the Week 13 loss to L.A., Murray finished with just 15 rushing yards on five carries. If his leg injury is good to go, running QB draw and zone read can bring another element to this game plan.
On defense, we'll see the Cardinals attacking the pocket and muddying its looks with late secondary movement for a backup quarterback with no NFL experience.
What Los Angeles needs to do to win: Get QB John Wolford outside of the pocket
Starter Jared Goff is out with a broken right thumb, so Wolford is the next man up. What do we know about him? Not much. This is a former Wake Forest quarterback who has never taken a regular-season NFL snap, though he did play well for the Arizona Hotshots in the AAF in 2019.
The big question: Can coach Sean McVay scheme up Wolford like we've seen Kyle Shanahan do with backup quarterbacks Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard in San Francisco? I think he can, and he'll use some of Wolford's movement traits. Expect a lot of boot and boot flood -- a staple concept in McVay's offense -- and a heavy-run game script with Malcom Brown and Cam Akers, if the rookie is up for this one. In dropback situations, McVay has to create defined reads for Wolford on Hi-Lo and leveled concepts that allow him to get the ball out with speed. The Arizona defense will play man coverage with a heavy blitz rate (37.7%).
With Brandon Staley's defense, we know to anticipate split-safety Quarters and Cover 6, with schemed pass-rush matchups for Aaron Donald. Look for Staley to vary his fronts with wide edge rushers and interior stunts to keep Murray in the pocket, while bringing situational pressure and locking Jalen Ramsey in coverage versus Hopkins when he aligns as a boundary receiver.
Steelers (12-3) at Browns (10-5)
Why this matchup matters: The Browns will make the playoffs with a win in this game (1 p.m. ET, CBS). They could also clinch a wild-card spot with a loss by the Colts or by a Titans loss and wins by the Ravens, Colts and Dolphins. The Steelers have already locked up the AFC North and are likely to be the 2- or 3-seed in the AFC.
What Cleveland needs to do to win: Work the play-action pass game with QB Baker Mayfield
Mayfield has thrown with more volume over the past month of the season, including a season-high 53 attempts in the Week 16 upset loss to the Jets. In this matchup against the Steelers' defense -- a unit that leads the NFL is both blitz rate (40.9%) and pressure rate (37.1%) -- look for coach Kevin Stefanski and the Browns to get back to their core system. Mayfield ranks second in the NFL in QBR out of play-action (93.1), just behind Aaron Rodgers.
Think volume touches here for running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt out of heavy personnel sets with left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. and right guard Wyatt Teller back from injury, plus the play-action concepts that either move the pocket for Mayfield or set him up with seven-man protection. That's where Cleveland can throw flood concepts off boot and break route tendencies on schemed-up shot plays to Rashard Higgins and Jarvis Landry.
Yes, the Browns will have to throw dropback concepts, but given the Steelers' ability to heat up the pocket, creating clean platforms for Mayfield off play-action should be a top priority in a game the Browns need to win.
Dolphins (10-5) at Bills (12-3)
Why this matchup matters: The Dolphins will make the playoffs with a win in this game (1 p.m. ET, CBS). They could also clinch a wild-card spot if the Ravens, Browns or Colts lose. The Bills have already clinched the AFC East and are likely to be the 2- or 3-seed in the AFC.
What Miami needs to do to win: Scheme more vertical throws for Tua Tagovailoa vs. split-safety coverages
Back in the Week 2 matchup, Josh Allen lit up the Miami defense, throwing for 415 yards with four touchdowns. And Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll schemed up man coverage with deep crossers and overs, getting Stefon Diggs loose down the field. Because of that, I can see the Dolphins mixing in some zone looks (Cover 3) and spinning late from pressure fronts to make Allen work post-snap.
This game, however, is about the quarterback position in Miami, too. I believe offensive coordinator Chan Gailey must add more vertical throws for Tagovailoa to complement the rhythm and timing routes in the Dolphins' playbook. Tagovailoa is averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt as a rookie (31st in the NFL), but we saw on his Alabama tape that he can make those deep throws. If he struggles to anticipate windows -- or drive the ball with velocity -- versus the Bills' split-safety coverages, the Dolphins could be in trouble, particularly because Ryan Fitzpatrick won't be on the bench to come in and pinch hit for him.
Ravens (10-5) at Bengals (4-10-1)
Why this matchup matters: The Ravens will make the playoffs with a win in this game (1 p.m. ET, CBS). They could also clinch a wild-card spot if the Browns or Colts lose. The Bengals are out of playoff contention.
What Baltimore needs to do to win: Continue the multiple run game approach
Over the past four weeks, the Ravens lead the NFL with 233.3 yards rushing per game, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. They look a lot more like the team that dominated in the regular season a year ago. And this is a multiple run package in Baltimore, with the Ravens using pre- and post-snap movement to gain a numbers advantage at the point of attack.
Plus, with the designed run concepts for Lamar Jackson, they can create conflict for second-level defenders. During that four-week span, Jackson has run the ball 32 times on designed carries, averaging 6.8 yards per rush. And this season, the Ravens are using more counter schemes with Jackson to attack inside the tackles (see video below). Now, pair that with the juice rookie J.K. Dobbins brings to the backfield, plus the downhill, physical ball carrier traits of Gus Edwards.
From @NFLMatchup - #Giants-#Ravens tomorrow...
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) December 26, 2020
We looked at Lamar Jackson & the BAL run game on this week's show.
Here's a breakdown on the QB Counter scheme - which caters to Lamar's short-area burst & ball carrier vision. @gregcosell @NFLFilms @jamisonhensley pic.twitter.com/zPAFFD9rpd
That will allow Baltimore to attack both the base and nickel fronts of Cincinnati with zone and gap run schemes, while also setting up Jackson in the pass game versus the Bengals' single-high looks (Cover 1/Cover 3) or the split-field zone schemes. Think intermediate to vertical throws here to target the seams and overs with Mark Andrews or Marquise Brown.
Packers (12-3) at Bears (8-7)
Why this matchup matters: The Bears will make the playoffs with a win in this game (4:25 p.m. ET, Fox). They could also clinch a wild-card spot if the Cardinals lose. The Packers are the favorite to be the 1-seed in the NFC, and a win here would clinch it.
What Chicago needs to do to win: Mirror the run and pass game together
The Bears haven't played against a top-tier defense over the past four weeks, but Mitchell Trubisky is playing his most efficient football of the season -- and maybe his career. From Weeks 13 to 16, Trubisky has completed 72.4% of his passes while averaging 8.14 yards per attempt, with the Bears using the outside run game to set up him up on heavily defined throws. Running back David Montgomery will get heavy volume, and his burst has elevated this season. That will allow coach Matt Nagy to scheme play-action for Trubisky off boot, while opening up windows on deep crossers versus the Packers' Quarters and Cover 2 defenses.
The plan here is to control game flow and limit possessions against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense with a run-heavy approach that also reduces the throwing volume for Trubisky. You don't want to get into consistent dropback situations here, given Trubisky's limitations as a pocket thrower. And let's add to the mix the Bears' defense, a unit that must create ball disruption versus Rodgers out of their defined schemes, while also fitting up the run with much more consistently than it showed in the Week 12 loss at Lambeau Field.
Titans (10-5) at Texans (4-11)
Why this matchup matters: The Titans will clinch the AFC South title with a win in this game (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). They could also clinch a wild-card spot if the Ravens, Colts or Dolphins lose. The Texans are out of playoff contention.
What Tennessee needs to do to win: Stick with its game and run the ball
The Titans' offensive identity is set. It's volume carries for running back Derrick Henry. Multiple tight end sets. I-back alignments. Outside zone, zone-lead toss. And Henry will get his touches against a Houston defense allowing 151.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. In fact, if we go back to the early-season matchup against Houston, Henry rushed for 212 yards and two touchdowns in the overtime win.
Off those run-game carries, the Titans will set up quarterback Ryan Tannehill on play-action throws to target the Texans' single-high and split-safety coverages. Think of the in-breakers here to A.J. Brown. Catch and run. Or the schemed verticals to Corey Davis. But let's not forget about Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson -- who is playing the best football of his career -- versus a Tennessee defense that lacks pass rushers. I would expect the Titans to use more simulated pressure in this game to try to impact the pocket with heavy zone coverage in the secondary.
Jaguars (1-14) at Colts (10-5)
Why this matchup matters: The Colts need to win this game (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) and have either the Titans, Ravens, Browns or Dolphins lose to make the playoffs. If the Colts win and Titans lose, Indianapolis would clinch the AFC South title. The Jaguars already have locked up the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
What Indianapolis needs to do to win: Target the Jaguars' defined coverage schemes
The Jaguars are talent-deficient on defense, and this unit can be schemed given their defined coverages. Through Week 16, they have played the most man-free coverage snaps in the league (48.5%), with a mix of Cover 3 and Quarters. Look for Colts coach Frank Reich to run man-beaters (shallow crossers) to create catch-and-run opportunities for Michael Pittman Jr. and T.Y. Hilton, with schemed verticals for quarterback Philip Rivers.
Up front, this Colts offensive line can create consistent movement off the ball versus Jacksonville, opening up running lanes for rookie Jonathan Taylor, who has emerged as the volume back in Indy. And we could see more zone run schemes Sunday. This would allow Indianapolis to dictate the offensive flow, while turning it over to their zone-heavy defense. The Colts can create interior disruption with defensive tackles DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, while gaining depth at the second level. Drop into those throwing lanes to try to steal one from quarterback Mike Glennon. The Colts have a major talent edge here.
Washington (6-9) at Eagles (4-10-1)
Why this matchup matters: Washington will clinch the NFC East title with a win in this game (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). The Eagles are out of playoff contention.
What Washington needs to do to win: Attack man coverage and lean on its pass rush
With the expectation Alex Smith is back at quarterback, I would look for Washington to target man coverage. This season, the Eagles have played man-free on 39.1% of coverage snaps, 10th-most in the league. Create middle-of-the-field windows for wide receiver Terry McLaurin, and take one-on-ones outside of the numbers with Cam Sims. Plus, with tight end Logan Thomas seeing more volume, Washington can generate some matchups against the Eagles' safeties or hit the seams when Philadelphia spins to its inverted two-deep shells.
And let's not forget about Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic out of the backfield. Gibson can handle volume as a zone runner and break off some explosive gains, while McKissic is an easy fit for Smith in the pass game as a underneath target.
On defense, Washington will bring pressure with safety Kam Curl from the secondary. But I still see this as the Washington defensive front -- a unit with four former first-rounders -- versus that Eagles offensive line. Interior twist stunts, plus the ability of Chase Young to win on the edge. They can heat up rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts, who was quick to come off his reads and very loose with the ball last week against Dallas.