The NFL is on the verge of playing its entire season, every game, despite the coronavirus pandemic. The virus forced games to be played on Tuesdays and even a Wednesday. But here we are, Week 17 of the 2020 NFL schedule.
It's a weekend of division-only games too, and all 16 will be contested on Sunday. There still are two divisions to be decided: the NFC East and the AFC South.
In addition to asking our experts for the biggest potential upsets, we inquired about what the Jets should do with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2021 draft, the top fantasy pick in 2021, and an MVP for 2020.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 17?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Giants (+3) over Cowboys. I'm betting on Patrick Graham's defense to limit explosive plays in this one, with a New York running game that can control both tempo and game flow on power schemes.
Mike Clay, fantasy writer: 49ers (+5.5) over Seahawks. Could the short-handed 49ers play spoiler against their hated division rival? They certainly did last week by going on the road and beating the Cardinals and they also knocked off the Rams on the road back in Week 12. This week, they'll be back "home" and facing a Seattle offense that has cleared two touchdowns in only one of its past five games.
Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior NFL writer: Broncos (+2.5) over Raiders. Losers of five of six, the Raiders are a complete mess. It's definitely within their grasp to close the season with four consecutive losses. Although the Broncos have only two victories in their past eight games, I just have a feeling quarterback Drew Lock will end the season on a high note.
Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Dolphins (+1) over Bills. The Dolphins will be playing for more than the Bills, who already lost out to the Chiefs for home-field advantage in the AFC. They've been playing well down the stretch, having won four of their past five, and played the Bills to a three-point loss in Week 2. It's easy to see them going to Buffalo and winning a Week 17 game.
Seth Walder, sports analytics writer: 49ers (+5.5) over Seahawks. Gut call here, but it sure seems like just when you think you understand what Seattle is, Pete Carroll's team will deliver a result that will send everyone for a loop. With the division locked up already, that could be here. Plus, George Kittle is back and FPI has had a soft spot for San Francisco all year.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Eagles (+1.5) over Washington. This game strikes me as a complete toss-up. Though the Washington defense is the most talented group in the game, the Eagles' offense has enough juice to create explosive plays. There's nothing for Philly as a team to play for in this game, but a win and impressive showing from Jalen Hurts would lay the foundation for his case to remain the starter next season.
The Jets will pick second in the 2021 NFL draft. Should they stick with Sam Darnold at quarterback or look elsewhere?
Bowen: Stick with Darnold. The Jets need to put him on their "draft board" this offseason, comparing his traits to the scouting reports on both Ohio State's Justin Fields and BYU's Zach Wilson. And I believe the Jets will stay with Darnold here, opening up multiple options with the No. 2 overall pick. Grab an offensive tackle here, trade back, more.
Clay: Look elsewhere. What's the old saying? "If you're not sure if you have a franchise quarterback, you don't have a franchise quarterback." The Jets should plan on selecting a quarterback with the second overall pick unless their front office simply doesn't feel a franchise quarterback is available (an unlikely scenario). It's likely that another QB-needy team will be interested in potentially turning around Darnold's career, so they could then look to acquire additional draft capital via a Darnold trade.
Reid: Stick with Darnold. Granted, he has had a rough stretch in New York. But from time to time, you still see flashes of the arm talent that prompted the Jets to select the former University of Southern California standout with the third overall pick in the 2018 draft. Now, I'm assuming the Jets will make a coaching change. I'm assuming they will make a sound hire, bringing in someone actually capable of developing Darnold. Based on the Jets' history, I might be assuming too much. But if I'm not, it makes sense for the Jets to keep rolling with Darnold.
Seifert: Stick with Darnold. Maybe I have too much sympathy for the dumpster fire that Darnold was drafted into. But before I close the book on him, I'd want to see him spend at least one season with a coach who has a proven track record of elevating quarterbacks -- especially in a draft year where there is a significant drop-off in quarterback depth after Trevor Lawrence. With that said, I'd want to add someone who could credibly get me through the season if the presumed new coach decides he wants to move on from Darnold.
Walder: Look elsewhere. Draft a quarterback with the No. 2 overall pick. Darnold has been a bad NFL quarterback for three consecutive seasons. Is he in a bad situation? Yes. But if he were a good quarterback, I think he wouldn't be literally last in QBR even with his surroundings. If he remains on the Jets, it should be strictly as a backup.
Yates: Stick with Darnold. The reality is there is a gap in value between Trevor Lawrence and every other quarterback prospect in this year's class, thus justifying either passing on a quarterback at pick No. 2 for the opportunity to take a blue-chip prospect at a different position or angling for a trade down to a team more motivated to select a quarterback behind Lawrence. Darnold has been inconsistent to be sure, but there are avenues for the Jets to dramatically improve the talent around him for a much clearer evaluation of his outlook going forward.
Let's talk 2021. Give us one prediction for next year about which you feel strongly.
Bowen: The Raiders will make the playoffs. I think this team is close given the offensive personnel and the ability of Jon Gruden as a playcaller. However, what Vegas needs here is some difference-makers on defense -- especially up front. Look for Mike Mayock to add those pieces, which will vault the Raiders into the postseason tournament next year.
Clay: The 49ers will bounce back. Considering how obliterated they've been by injuries in arguably the league's best division, how is it even possible that the 49ers have nearly broken even in scoring margin? A roster loaded with talent and a terrific coaching staff led by Kyle Shanahan is how. A healthy 49ers roster will have them well-positioned for a run at the NFC West title in 2020.
Reid: Russell Wilson will finally break through and win the MVP award. The Seattle Seahawks superstar has been so consistently good for so long, it's hard to remember a time when he wasn't among the league's elite QBs. All that's missing from his ledger is the NFL's top individual award. Next year, he'll get it.
Seifert: COVID-19 protocols of some level will still be part of NFL life, certainly during the offseason and probably during the summer and fall as well. Timetables remain vague for vaccinating people in the age group of NFL players, and the virus could take years to eradicate. That leaves open the likelihood of continued testing, tracking and distancing procedures, even if they're modified to reflect lower virus levels around the country.
Walder: If the Bears end up re-signing Mitchell Trubisky, as some executives speculated to ESPN's Adam Schefter, it will be a disaster. NFL teams need to know that it's OK to give up on a quarterback before they are 100% sure that QB is not the answer. With Trubisky, we're what, 98% sure? Chicago already wasted a 2020 season that could have been interesting with a better quarterback, and the Bears will regret making the same mistake twice if they rely on Trubisky again.
Yates: The 49ers will be back. We delve into hyperbole often, but I do not recall a team that has had the injury luck the 49ers faced in 2020 and that is not an exaggeration. While I'm not sure who will be their quarterback and while acknowledging they have a laundry list of important free agents, I do believe this team is primed for a bounce back to the playoffs in 2020. The roster is deep, the coaching staff is fantastic, and the front office does an excellent job finding the right pieces.
OK, now next fantasy football season: Who should be the No. 1 pick in PPR leagues for 2021?
Bowen: Christian McCaffrey, RB, Panthers. I almost put Derrick Henry in this spot given his durability -- and the running game volume he sees on a weekly basis. But a healthy McCaffrey -- in Joe Brady's offensive system -- is still the pick due to his receiving traits in PPR formats.
Clay: McCaffrey. We didn't get much from him this season, but what we did get is just enough games to know that he won't be playing a reduced role in Matt Rhule's offense. McCaffrey scored exactly two touchdowns in all three games he played, averaging 30.0 fantasy points per game during the span. He'll essentially have two offseasons and a full NFL season of rest heading into what figures to be a major bounce-back campaign in 2021.
Reid: McCaffrey. I get the injury concerns and all, but I expect him to rebound in a big way. And McCaffrey just gets points too many ways to pass on him. An elite running back with his receiving skills? It's a no-brainer.
Seifert: Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings. The obvious (and quite possibly most correct) answer is McCaffrey. But I thought I'd note that over the past two seasons, Cook has averaged 22.5 PPR per game, second among all running backs to McCaffrey. And the Vikings' shift to Gary Kubiak as offensive coordinator has actually elevated Cook's production in his fourth NFL season. He doesn't turn 26 until next August, and he appears to have grown more comfortable working through health issues.
Walder: McCaffrey. Even if he carries a little more injury risk heading into next year than he did this year, the upside he presents because of his receiving ability is just worth it. If he makes it through the year healthy, you're in great shape.
Yates: McCaffrey. It's clear cut for me. Prior to this season, McCaffrey had never missed a game and was among the NFL leaders for most catches by any player in his first three seasons. He has played in only three games this year and managed 28.5, 24.1 and 37.1 fantasy points in them as the preeminent pass-catching back in football and an incredible runner, too. The reality of fantasy football is that there is no more valuable commodity than an elite, set-it-and-forget-it running back, and McCaffrey's upside is higher than any other player at the position.
The race for MVP is close. Who gets your vote?
Bowen: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. In his second season under Matt LaFleur, we've seen Rodgers play some of the best football of his career. He's throwing with rhythm on play-action, winning with both timing and elite ball location, and Rodgers can still use his second-reaction traits to make the necessary plays outside of structure. That resulted in Rodgers throwing 44 touchdown passes -- with only five interceptions. He's the league's top quarterback in 2020.
Clay: Rodgers. The Chiefs have the better record, but Rodgers has outperformed Patrick Mahomes in most categories this season. That includes league-high marks in touchdown passes (44) and QBR (83.9), while also sitting top-five in passing yardage (4,059), completion percentage (70%) and YPA (8.1).
Reid: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs. Look, we can parse statistics all day. And I get that Rodgers' statistical line is, yet again, phenomenal. But Mahomes' numbers are great as well, including a league-high 4,740 passing yards. But here's the thing: Mahomes is 14-1. The Chiefs have clinched the NFL's best record and Mahomes guided them to a perfect 8-0 road mark. That established, I wouldn't be surprised if Mahomes and Rodgers were co-MVPs.
Seifert: Rodgers. The statistical and performance comparison between him and Mahomes is, as you say, very close. So I look at it this way: What would happen if you took Rodgers and Mahomes away from their respective teams? The Chiefs have enough skill players on offense, and playmakers on defense, to be a playoff team without Mahomes. Without Rodgers, the Packers would have a harder time.
Walder: Mahomes. While Rodgers has a very slight lead in QBR, that's a rate stat. Mahomes has maintained that level of play for many more plays than Rodgers, and thus generated more value by being so efficient for longer. It's true that Mahomes has one more elite weapon to throw to (Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce vs. Davante Adams), but Rodgers has the luxury of playing behind the league's best pass-protecting offensive line, so I don't think the surrounding players sway me away from the Chiefs' QB. I do think it's a very close race and a reasonable case can be made for either player, however.
Yates: Mahomes. I believe the award will wind up with Rodgers and I have no issue with that whatsoever. However, my vote would go to Mahomes and his brilliance once again; while the Chiefs have kept games closer than they've needed to be this season, they're trending toward a 15-1 season with Mahomes set to surpass 5,000 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns again. Understanding this is unfair because Rodgers does not create the schedule nor control how other teams perform, Mahomes had more opportunities against top opponents and in games against teams with at least 10 wins he guided the Chiefs to a 5-0 record with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions.