NFL Week 4 betting guide: Picks, props and why the Bears can keep it close

Value is value, no matter where -- or how -- you find it. And that's what we'll aim to do each week in this space -- find value.

Ben Solak is out this week, so Matt Bowen is filling in with his own unique style.

Bowen and Seth Walder bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting. A former NFL safety, Bowen predicts positive matchups and game winners from tape study and his understanding of the league. Walder relies on statistical models to pick out plus-expected value bets.

These weekly picks will not be limited to a certain bet type. From spreads and money lines to totals or even defensive player props, a good price might be found anywhere.

Results will be tracked throughout the season, with flat one-unit wagers for each listed bet. As always, odds are from ESPN BET Sportsbook.

With that, let's dive into Week 4.

Jump to:
Game bets | Defensive props | Offensive props

Game bets

Chicago Bears to cover +1.5 (-125) at Las Vegas Raiders

We are seeing development from quarterback Caleb Williams under coach Ben Johnson. More timing and rhythm as a thrower, a growing sense of calm in the pocket. That's coaching. And Williams can distribute the ball to multiple targets, with Rome Odunze (16 receptions, 227 yards, 4 TDs) emerging as his No. 1. Yes, the Bears are still banged up in the secondary, but the Raiders' inability to create run game production with Ashton Jeanty (3.1 YPC) limits their offensive tempo. Let's take the Bears, who are now getting points after opening as favorites. -- Bowen

Green Bay Packers team total OVER 27.5 (-110)

Jordan Love and the Packers were shut down by the Cleveland Browns' defense in Week 3, but that unit is one of the league's best. In Week 4, however, Green Bay gets a much more positive matchup versus the Dallas defense. The Cowboys are allowing 30.7 points per game and a league-worst 288 passing yards per game. Remember, due to a lack of impact players, the Cowboys are also the NFL's heaviest zone coverage defense (87% of coverage snaps). Matt LaFleur will dial up some zone answers in this one, while Micah Parsons and the Green Bay pass rush create positive field position (and scoring opportunities) for Love. -- Bowen

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers total points UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Both the Eagles and Bucs are giving up around 21 points per game heading into Week 4. Mike Evans (hamstring) could be down. And the Eagles really want to play a certain style of football that leads with heavy run game volume, which allows them to dictate tempo. I also trust the defensive fronts of Philly and Tampa in this one to limit explosive plays, so let's take the under. -- Bowen

Pittsburgh Steelers to cover +2.5 (-110) at Minnesota Vikings

I don't love the Steelers' offense, and we know Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is a chaos creator with his pressures and late coverage rotations. But I am intrigued by the Steelers' defense and its ability to take the ball away. Pittsburgh forced five turnovers in the Week 3 win over the New England Patriots, and they have at least one in every game played this season. Plus, the Steelers' pass rush (eight sacks on the season) can get home. That could be trouble for Vikings quarterback Carson Wentz, who has a tendency to extend plays to his detriment, while his decision-making slips late in the down. Take the Steelers to cover in what could be an ugly football game over in Ireland. -- Bowen

Walder's defensive props

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Why the Chargers defense is a strong Week 4 fantasy option

Tristan H. Cockcroft breaks down why he likes the Chargers defense against rookie QB Jaxson Dart and the Giants.

Mason Graham to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+1800)

I've been waiting for a defensive rookie to have a breakout game and justify a Defensive Rookie of the Year bet. Finally, in Week 3, we got it. Graham recorded a 43% pass rush win rate in the Browns' win over the Packers -- the highest PRWR game at defensive tackle by anyone in over a year! Considering this performance came at a time when Abdul Carter's start to the season has been awfully quiet, including playing 28% of his defensive snaps at off-ball linebacker, I think the opportunity for someone else to emerge is right there. Graham, I believe, is that guy, and I'm surprised to see the odds so long for him even after his Week 3 performance. I would not be shocked at all if his odds fall precipitously over the next few weeks.

Offensive player props

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Why Derrick Henry's struggles are a concern for fantasy managers

Stephania Bell and Field Yates explain why Derrick Henry's low performance is concerning for fantasy managers.

Khalil Shakir to go OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-120)

Shakir has posted over 45 yards receiving in two of three games played this season, and his route tree creates high-percentage throws for quarterback Josh Allen. Shakir has 121 yards receiving on the season, with 62.8% of his total yardage coming after the catch. Perimeter screens, quicks to the middle of the field, crossers. Catch and run. That works versus a New Orleans Saints defense allowing 7.1 yards per attempt (23rd in the league). -- Bowen

Romeo Doubs to score Anytime Touchdown (+185)

Doubs scored a touchdown in the Week 2 win over the Washington Commanders, and he has seen three red zone targets through three games. Doubs could have opportunities to isolate as the boundary X receiver in scoring position on Sunday night against a Dallas defense that has given up seven touchdown passes this season (tied for second most in the league). -- Bowen

Jahan Dotson to record 30+ receiving yards (+425)

The Eagles are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, but against the Buccaneers they'll need Jalen Hurts to come through with his arm. That's because no team in the league has been better in terms of EPA per play at stopping the run. There are multiple possible beneficiaries (and my model liked DeVonta Smith 80+ receiving yards to some degree, too), but Dotson really stands out at this price. He's far from the flashiest player, but he has run a route on 67% of the Eagles' dropbacks this year, including 84% last week. And he has also blown past this number once this year, when he recorded 59 receiving yards in Week 1. -- Walder

Kayshon Boutte to record 80+ receiving yards (+1000)

Among all wide receivers with at least 50 routes this season, no one has run a higher rate of go routes and deep fades than Boutte (37% combined). These are typically not the most efficient routes in terms of yards per route run, but that's not exactly what we're concerned with here. We're playing the alternate line because we're shooting for upside, and Boutte and all those deep shots give us exactly that. -- Walder

Kareem Hunt to go OVER 26.5 rushing yards (-110)

Hunt will continue to work in a backfield rotation with Isiah Pacheco, but he has seen 18 carries over his past two games, with 31 or more yards rushing in each. And we all watched the Detroit Lions carve up the Baltimore Ravens' run defense on Monday night. Moving defenders off the ball. I like the over to hit here for Hunt on Sunday at Arrowhead. -- Bowen

Josh Jacobs to go OVER 2.5 receptions (+135)

I'm going to keep riding this running backs vs. Cowboys receptions wave. Running backs catch passes on 15% of zone coverage dropbacks, compared to just 8% against man. The massive disparity stems from the fact that it's easier for backs to be a checkdown option against zone, where they can sit between defenders. And guess who has run more zone coverage than anyone in 2025? Dallas. Through three weeks the Cowboys have deployed zone coverage 87% of the time, the highest through three weeks of any team in our dataset back to 2017. -- Walder

Justin Herbert to go OVER 0.5 interceptions (+190)

I often write in this space about how much of interception forecasting is about game situation. Quarterbacks on a losing team have to throw more and take more risks, and the inverse is true for quarterbacks on a team that's ahead on the scoreboard. And that's true -- to a point. The other thing I sometimes mention is how tightly clustered interception probabilities in a given game are around 50%. When my interception model looks at Herbert facing a New York Giants team with Jaxson Dart making his pro debut, it sees Herbert throwing an interception as unlikely -- but not that unlikely. It makes the fair price on the over at +128. To get +190 looks like an awfully nice value. -- Walder

Spencer Rattler to go UNDER 34.5 pass attempts (-110)

It's easy to see why this line is as high as it is. The Saints are massive 15.5-point underdogs to the Bills, and one has to figure New Orleans will be down big quickly and looking to throw. Rattler has had games with 46, 34 and 39 pass attempts in three losses this season. But there's more to it than that. The Saints have actually been one of the more conservative teams in the league in terms of run-pass ratio if we adjust for game context with NFL Next Gen Stats' pass rate over expectation, which has New Orleans at negative-9%, fourth lowest in the league. On top of that, Buffalo's defense has actually induced the lowest pass rate over expectation from its opponents (negative 13%). -- Walder