On Monday, we evaluated the wild-card situation in the NFC, where seven teams are competing for three spots in the 2020 NFL playoffs. After Washington upset the Steelers on Monday, you can realistically add an eighth team to that mix; there's a slim chance that the woebegone NFC East actually comes away with two playoff teams if the Giants and the Washington Football Team continue to stay hot.
In the AFC, things are a little clearer. Four teams have been eliminated from the playoff picture, and the 4-8 Texans and Broncos have chances below 0.1% in the ESPN Football Power Index's simulations. The Bills, Steelers, Titans and Chiefs are atop their respective decisions, leaving six candidates for three wild-card spots. Let's run through their chances, what's going on with them, and what each team will need to do to make it into January:
Jump to a team:
BAL | CLE | IND
LV | MIA | NE
6. New England Patriots (6-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 13.1%
Since I wrote that the 2-5 start to the season for the Patriots might be the end of their dynasty, they've clawed their way back into the playoff picture. Bill Belichick's team has won four out of its past five games. While the 45-0 victory over the Chargers was a rout of monumental proportions, the three other victories came down to the final possession. The Pats were 0-3 in one-score games during the ugly start to the season; they're 3-1 in those games since.
What has changed? There's one extremely simple explanation: they've stopped turning the ball over on offense. During that 2-5 stretch, the Patriots had 15 turnovers in seven games, which was tied for the highest rate in football. Since then, Josh McDaniels' group has two turnovers in five games, the league's lowest rate over that time frame. They have gone from turning the ball over at least once in their first seven games to going turnover-free in four of their past five.
It also certainly seems as if Cam Newton's struggles after returning from the reserve/COVID-19 list were a short-term funk. The former first overall pick hasn't been a high-volume passer by any stretch of the imagination this season, but if you split his numbers from that three-game losing streak after returning from COVID-19 and compare them to what he has done over the rest of the season, he has been a different player:
To keep up this winning streak, Newton might need to be the one carrying the team. The Patriots' defense just played its best game of the year in pitching a shutout against Justin Herbert, but the league's top defense from a year ago was ranked 31st in DVOA before that game against the Chargers. New England has basically been able to keep itself afloat with takeaways, as it has ended 16% of opposing drives with turnovers, the second-best mark in football. The Patriots rank seventh in points allowed, but that's a product of the offense producing slow, methodical drives; Belichick's defense has faced only 100 meaningful possessions, the fewest in the league and about 16 below the league average.
The biggest problem now is their remaining schedule. New England still has a game remaining against the Jets, but its three other tilts are Thursday night's road game against the Rams and divisional matchups against the Dolphins and Bills. Those teams are a combined 27-11 this season. The Upshot's model has the Patriots as near-locks if they win out. Simple enough.
5. Miami Dolphins (8-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 40.9%
The Pats might have a difficult schedule ahead, but it doesn't compare to what the Dolphins have to do. FPI suggests that they have played the NFL's second-easiest slate so far, but they are projected to face the second-toughest schedule over the final four weeks of the season. In addition to the Patriots, Brian Flores' team will face the Chiefs, Raiders and Bills. FPI projects Miami to win 1.4 games the rest of the way, which is why its playoff chances aren't as promising as its record might seem.
If you look back through Miami's season and how it has done against the league's better teams, there might be more cause for concern. The Dolphins have feasted on subpar competition, going 5-0 against teams ranked in the bottom 10 of the league by FPI. They have only one win over a team with a winning record -- a blowout victory over the Rams -- and the 6-6 Cardinals would have qualified as a second such victory before losing this past week.
Unlike many of the other teams in this mix, the Dolphins are adding to the uncertainty by building around an inexperienced quarterback. I think they are smart to start evaluating rookie Tua Tagovailoa as early as possible, although the idea that they would consider drafting a quarterback in 2021 if he struggles seems more like interesting column fodder than a thing they would actually do.
The offense has been interesting with Tagovailoa in the lineup. The former Alabama star has been excellent at completing short passes, as his completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) on throws within nine yards of the line of scrimmage is plus-6.4%, which is the best mark in the league for passers with at least 100 attempts. On anything deeper, Tagovailoa's CPOE is -0.7%. Jakeem Grant didn't help out his quarterback when he dropped what would have been a long touchdown pass last week, but Tagovailoa was also aided by impressive catches from Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker. The Dolphins have been able to get Tagovailoa going with play-action and run-pass option concepts, but they're still asking him to throw way too many fades and iso routes, especially in the red zone.
I don't think they are confident in their offensive line, and Flores' game management only adds to that belief. The former Patriots defensive coordinator has done brilliant work with the team this season, but despite possessing a significant analytics department, the Dolphins have been markedly conservative in short yardage. Heading into Week 13, they were the least aggressive fourth-down team in the league.
Facing a Bengals team that started a third-string quarterback and ranked 30th in defensive DVOA, the Dolphins kicked one field goal from the 1-yard line, another from the 5-yard line, and attempted a (awesome) fake field goal attempt from the 2-yard line, which was called back for a procedural penalty. It didn't matter against Cincinnati, but if Flores isn't willing to be aggressive against one of the league's worst teams, it could cost his team as it is about to play some of the league's best. Even if the Dolphins lose to the Chiefs on Sunday, a win over the Raiders and another victory over either the Bills or Patriots should get them in.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (7-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 49.7%
Speaking of those Raiders, their last-second win over the Jets led to a million takes and kept their playoff hopes in healthy shape. A loss to the league's worst team would have been catastrophic for the Raiders, who are already down the head-to-head tiebreaker to the Patriots. They peaked with odds of 73.2% after they beat the Broncos in Week 10 to get to 6-3, but what looked to be a three-game losing streak would have dropped them below New England and probably required them to win out.
As it is now, though, Las Vegas has three of its final four games at home. If it can hold its own in divisional games where it will be favored against the Chargers and Broncos, Jon Gruden's team should be able to make it to the playoffs with a split against the Colts and Dolphins. The Raiders should be able to handle their AFC West brethren, but then again, they needed a last-second miracle to beat the Jets.
Even given that they came back and won, the Jets game was a reminder of how thin this offense's margin for error is on a week-to-week basis. The Raiders forced three takeaways for only the fourth time in Gruden's three seasons at the helm. Without those takeaways, they typically need to protect the football, because they're toast if they lose the turnover battle. Since the start of 2018, they are one of only two teams to go winless when they have a negative turnover margin at 0-17. They're 18-9 when they tie or win on takeaways. Every team is better in those situations, but the Raiders are an extreme example.
There are also reasons to be concerned that the offense's impressive start to the season might be difficult to sustain. Offenses that struggle on first and second down but are excellent on third down have a habit of fading in larger samples, and that fits the Raiders. Gruden's offense is 25th in the league in offensive EPA per play on first and second down, only to then morph into the Chiefs and become the league's best offense by EPA on third down. They do face the league's second-shortest third downs on average, but the team just ahead of them is the Dolphins, who convert 37.3% of the time. Vegas is picking up 48.7% of their third downs, the third-highest mark in football.
The Raiders' final four games come against teams that rank in the top half of the league in getting off the field on third down, including their matchup with those Dolphins, who have allowed opposing offenses to convert just 32.2% of the time on third downs, the best mark in the league. That matchup is one of the most important games left on the schedule when it comes to playoff leverage, and third downs might end up being what decides a wild-card spot.
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 61.4%
The Colts trail only the 8-4 Titans in the AFC South by virtue of their divisional record; the two teams split their head-to-head games, but Tennessee is otherwise 2-0 in the South, and the Colts beat the Texans on Sunday but blew a fourth-quarter lead against the Jaguars all the way back in Week 1. Each team has a game left against both the Texans and Jags, but unless they can pick up an extra win the rest of the way, the Colts will lose the division by virtue of handing Jacksonville what is currently their only victory of the campaign.
Blowing a late lead in Week 1 and throwing a fourth-quarter interception led some (OK, me) to worry that the Colts had adopted the Chargers' knack of losing close games after acquiring Philip Rivers, but that hasn't really been the case. Indy hasn't blown a late lead across the rest of the season, and Rivers' interception rate has fallen from 3.4% to 2.1%. Coach Frank Reich has the veteran quarterback completing more than 68% of his passes, in part because he is making safer throws.
Rivers' average pass traveled 8.5 yards in the air a year ago, but with a heavy dosage of throws to his backs, he is averaging 6.9 air yards per pass this season. Unsurprisingly, given the move from one of the league's worst offensive lines to one of its best, his sack rate and pressure rate are down dramatically. Rivers, who is dealing with a toe injury, has been hit on just 5.6% of his dropbacks, good for the second-lowest rate in the league behind Ben Roethlisberger. That should help come January.
My biggest concern right now with the Colts is with two key contributors on either side of the line of scrimmage. Star left tackle Anthony Castonzo left the Week 12 loss to the Titans because of a knee injury and didn't play against the Texans; in a small sample, Rivers' QBR has dropped 20 points without his blindside protector, from 68.3 on 334 snaps with Castonzo to 48.3 without him.
Likewise, the Colts weren't the same on defense when DeForest Buckner missed the Titans game because he was on the reserve/COVID-19 list. They gave up a season-high 45 points, with Derrick Henry running for 178 yards and three touchdowns. Buckner is back and healthy, but I'm always going to be worried about a defense that seems as dependent on a pair of stars as they are on Buckner and Darius Leonard. With both Buckner and Leonard on the field this season, Indy has given up a QBR of 28.0. In 187 dropbacks without either Buckner or Leonard on the field, that number rises to 76.6.
As long as their two top defenders are around, the Colts should continue to rank among the league's better defenses. They have one game left against a fellow wild-card competitor, Sunday's matchup with the Raiders. Win that one and the Upshot's model suggests Indy has an 83% chance of making it to the postseason. The Colts still have to play the Steelers, but the effectiveness of their offensive line and their pass defense makes me think that Indy might have a good shot at upsetting the Steelers. Even if they lose, wins over the Raiders and Jaguars probably would be enough to get them into the postseason for the second time in three years.
2. Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 67.5%
The Ravens finally brought a halt to their three-game losing streak by beating the Cowboys on Tuesday night, and while there has been talk about how John Harbaugh's team had been underachieving before that game, it had really just been going up against a tough schedule. After starting 6-2, Baltimore went 1-4 against teams that are a combined 46-16 this season. (That figure counts the Steelers' 11-1 record twice, since Baltimore played Pittsburgh twice over that span.)
Good news for Ravens fans: things are getting easier. After beating the 3-9 Cowboys, they will have a tougher matchup against the surging 9-3 Browns on Monday night. After that, though, they finish with the Jaguars, Giants and Bengals, three teams that are a combined 8-27-1. The Upshot's model isn't as sanguine about Baltimore's chances as FPI, but even if it loses to the Browns, the Upshot predicts it would still have a 50/50 shot to make the postseason by sweeping those three final games.
Of course, the offense has fallen off from a year ago. The Lamar Jackson-led attack, which was No. 1 in DVOA a year ago, has fallen to 21st. I would argue that the extent of the drop was unexpected, but it shouldn't be a surprise to see the Ravens lose a Hall of Fame guard in Marshal Yanda to retirement and later their lead blocking tight end in Nick Boyle to injury and subsequently not be as effective at running the football. As we saw Tuesday against a hapless Cowboys rush defense, the concepts that torched the league in 2019 should still be effective. The Ravens just aren't executing them as effectively.
Likewise, while Jackson's 9% touchdown rate was never going to reoccur, we could have expected more out of both the reigning MVP and his receivers. His weapons have dropped 4.8% of his targets this season, the fifth-highest rate in the league. That's lower than Ben Roethlisberger's drop rate, but Jackson's drops have been more damaging. He has the highest drop rate in the league on passes traveling 10 or more yards in the air, at 6.4%. Mark Andrews has taken a step back, and 2019 first-round pick Marquise Brown hasn't taken the step forward many expected.
Whether it owes to these issues or just randomness, the Ravens haven't been the same force in the red zone as they were in 2019. Last season, they produced a league-best 64 trips to the red zone per game and converted 67.2% of those trips into touchdowns, the second-highest rate in football. This year? They are tied for 17th with 40 red zone trips, and they've turned just 55% of those opportunities into touchdowns, which is tied for 25th in the NFL. Since their Week 8 bye, that mark has fallen to 47.6%. They've failed to come away with even a field goal on eight different occasions, which ties them with the Cowboys for the worst mark in the league. If the Ravens can get hot in the red zone, they should be able to make a run.
1. Cleveland Browns (9-3)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 86.4%
Browns fans, you can almost exhale. At 9-3, your team is virtually all of the way there. Beating the Ravens on Monday night would all but lock the Browns into a wild-card spot; it would take three straight losses and about a dozen other games not going their way to keep them out at 10-6. Likewise, even if the Browns lose to the Ravens, a sweep of the Giants and Jets on a two-game New York road trip would lock them in. They would still have a 5% chance or so if they lose out.
Advanced metrics aren't as excited about Cleveland. It is 23rd in DVOA and 20th by FPI. It has a point differential of minus-15, something we would typically associate with a team that would have 5.7 wins now, not nine. Those wins are banked, and Browns fans might not care about the advanced metrics, but they suggest that the team isn't anywhere near as good as its record indicates.
Look a little closer at their record. Sunday's victory over the Titans was unquestionably impressive, but it's not indicative of their typical wins. The Browns are 3-0 against the NFC East. They're 2-0 against the Bengals. They beat the Jaguars and Texans by a combined five points. They have two wins by more than a touchdown against meaningful competition; a nine-point win over the Colts in which they kicked a field goal in the final minute to put away the game, and Sunday's blowout win over Tennessee, which admittedly was much more impressive than the final score indicated.
The Browns' three losses, on the other hand, are all to possible playoff teams by significant margins. They lost by 10 points to the Raiders, by 32 to the Ravens and by 31 to the Steelers. In those three games, Baker Mayfield completed 52.4% of his passes, averaged 5.2 yards per attempt and posted a QBR of 30.0. Mayfield's stunning game against the Titans on Sunday was a positive data point, but the Titans' pass defense is a mess; Tennessee came in to the game ranking 31st against play-action passes by QBR and pressured Mayfield on just 3.0% of his dropbacks, the second-lowest rate for any quarterback in any game this season.
All of this leads to Monday's game with the Ravens, which will be the best measure of where the Browns are right now. They will be at home against a team that is likely to pressure their starting quarterback. The Ravens have the fourth-best rush defense DVOA in football, meaning that more of the load is likely to fall on Mayfield. Last season, under the weight of legitimate expectations, Mayfield and the Browns collapsed.
Now, on the verge of the playoffs and after the most impressive victory of the Mayfield era, the expectations are back. They might end up favored against their archrivals when the Ravens have their starting quarterback for the first time since 2008. Browns fans think that it's time to get on the Cleveland bandwagon. If they can deliver a repeat performance of what we saw from them against the Titans last week against another playoff-caliber team this Monday, I'll be more inclined to hop on.