This week, I'm going to break down the competition for the three available wild-card spots in each conference. I'm going to start Monday in the NFC, where there are 11 teams with at least five wins. Four of those teams are division leaders and not currently part of the wild-card picture, which means that this won't cover the Saints, Packers, Giants or Rams, who hold the tiebreaker over the Seahawks after beating Seattle in Week 10.
We're then left with seven teams competing for three wild-card berths. Let's check out what those teams did Sunday, what has helped (or hurt) them in recent weeks and what they might have to do to over the final four weeks to push into the postseason. We'll use the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) as a guide:
Jump to a team:
ARI | CHI | DET
MIN | SF | SEA | TB
7. Detroit Lions (5-7)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 1.6%
The end of Sunday's Lions-Bears game felt like the mirror image of the one we saw in Week 1. Then, the Lions blew a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter, with the key moment coming when Matthew Stafford threw an interception on third down with 2:45 left to give the Bears a short field. On Sunday, the Bears blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter, with Detroit's chances improving dramatically after Mitchell Trubisky was strip-sacked on third down with 1:54 left to hand the Lions the ball on the Chicago 7-yard line. The Lions probably should have won the first game. The Bears probably should have won Sunday. In the end, they each won once.
In their first game without Matt Patricia, Detroit looked different on defense. It dropped Patricia's obsession with man coverage, with ESPN's automated analysis suggesting the team was in zone nearly 57% of the time, up from 41.5% through Week 12. When the Lions did play man, it was usually with a heavy cushion. They had allowed 28 plays of 25 yards or more through Week 12, which was tied for the fourth-highest total in the league. They were one of only two teams to go all game without allowing one such play Sunday.
At the same time, they failed to sack Trubisky before the fourth quarter, at which point they came up with consecutive sacks on third downs to help force a punt and then the game-turning strip sack. I would love to believe that they were somehow saving their pass rush for the two biggest moments of the game, but unless firing Patricia somehow flipped a fourth-quarter curse, I would encourage them to start pressuring opposing quarterbacks in the first 45 minutes of their remaining games.
The win took the Lions to 5-7, but it would take a small miracle for them to make it to the postseason. Their four remaining games are against the Bucs, Packers, Titans and Vikings, who are a combined 30-18. Their odds might seem low, but then again, their win expectancy with 4:33 to go against the Bears was 0.9%. Stranger things have happened.
6. Chicago Bears (5-7)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 5.9%
The Bears made a habit of pulling out games in the fourth quarter during their 5-1 start, but what has happened since should be a reminder of how difficult that formula is to sustain. The table below splits their season into their 5-1 start and six-game losing streak and then looks at their win expectancy added in the first three quarters of those games as compared to the fourth. Which one sticks out like a sore thumb?
It's tempting -- and reasonable -- to blame the offense for the downswing, but the Chicago defense has also taken a step backward. The Bears forced eight takeaways over that 5-1 stretch to start the season. During the six-game losing streak, though, it has forced only four giveaways. One came Sunday, but it wasn't from Kyle Fuller or Eddie Jackson; instead, defensive lineman Bilal Nichols made a nice play on a Stafford sidearm pass at the line of scrimmage. It was a solid individual effort, but with an offense prone to giveaways, the Bears need to force more takeaways.
Nichols was also one of two Bears players with sacks on Sunday, neither of whom were the edge rushers the Bears expected to be the focal points of the defense. Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn have failed to produce a single combined sack over the past four games, and while Mack is dealing with a back injury, he failed to record a tackle in a game in which Stafford dropped back 44 times and the former Raiders star played 53 snaps. Quinn, who had 11.5 sacks and 22 knockdowns in 14 games for the Cowboys a year ago, recorded his lone sack in the opener. The Bears rank 22nd in pressure rate and 26th in sack rate during this losing streak.
There have certainly been games in which the offense hasn't held up its end of the bargain, but Sunday, it scored 30 points. The offense wasn't the problem (or at least entirely the problem). The Bears had a 71.6% chance of making it to the playoffs after starting 5-1, but now, they'll need to sweep their final four games to have a significant shot of making it back into the picture. Anything short might inspire a more wholesale regime change in Chicago, which mortgaged its future to build around the trio of Mack, Trubisky and Matt Nagy and might not have a single playoff win to show for its efforts.
5. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 19%
The Vikings have risen up the standings as the Bears have fallen, with Minnesota's 1-5 start giving way to a 5-1 stretch, pushing Kirk Cousins & Co. back up to .500. And while Mike Zimmer's teams have usually succeeded as a product of their defensive play, it has been the offense that has been winning games. Gary Kubiak's unit ranks second in the NFL in win probability added per game since the Week 8 bye, just behind the Chiefs.
Dalvin Cook initially buoyed the Vikings' chances with two massive games against the Packers and Lions, but he has slowed down since. On Sunday, he was probably a net negative. He didn't have his head up for a checkdown from a pressured Cousins early in the third quarter on a pass that Joe Schobert intercepted for a pick-six. Later in the game, Cook fumbled a handoff inside the 3-yard line, handing the ball back to the Jaguars.
Instead, the Vikings have been propelled forward by rookie sensation Justin Jefferson, who is putting together the sort of debut campaign Minnesota hasn't seen since Randy Moss' 17-touchdown year in 1998. Since he moved into a starting role in Week 3, Jefferson is second in the league in receiving yards behind Travis Kelce. He leads the NFL over that time frame in yards per target (12.3) and is second behind Davante Adams in yards per route run (3.13). In Sunday's win over the Jaguars, he caught nine passes for 121 yards and a touchdown, throwing in an 18-yard pass interference penalty for good measure.
If they have a weakness on offense, we saw it against the Jaguars. It involves kicker Dan Bailey and his head coach. Bailey had a rough game, missing two extra points. Later, on third-and-1 with 23 seconds left to go in a tie game, the Vikings called for Cousins to throw a bomb to Adam Thielen, which fell incomplete. Bailey was then tasked with attempting a 51-yard field goal, which he missed.
Zimmer's response borders on petulance. After Minnesota intercepted Mike Glennon in overtime, it worked the ball into field goal range. Then the Vikings worked the ball into chip shot range. Then they kept going. The same coach who said he wanted to "be smart" with Cook's touches amid a heavy workload handed Cook the ball eight straight times in overtime.
At the two-minute warning, with the ball on the 2-yard line, Zimmer finally seemed set to kick a field goal, only to take Bailey off the field and send Cook back on. Despite the fact that Cook himself had fumbled away the ball in a similar situation earlier in the contest, he was given the ball on second-and-goal. After he was stuffed, the Vikings were set to run the ball again, only for a false start to snap some sense into Zimmer. Bailey easily hit a 23-yard field goal to win the game.
The tactic easily could have cost the Vikings their playoff chances. As it is, they are back at .500 and have four games left against NFC opposition. Three wins against the Bears, Buccaneers, Lions and Saints would almost definitely get them in, although three of those final four games are on the road.
4. Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 37.6%
It was only three weeks ago when Kyler Murray hit DeAndre Hopkins with that instant classic of a Hail Mary to seal a 32-30 victory over the Bills. Well, since then, the Cardinals have lost three straight, including a 38-28 stomping by the Rams on Sunday. If it weren't for the Hail Mary, they would be riding a five-game losing streak. Most disconcertingly, Murray doesn't look like the same MVP candidate we saw three weeks ago.
He has reportedly been dealing with a shoulder injury over the past two weeks, and while there's nothing clear-cut, he struggled with both velocity and placement early against the Rams. After Murray took advantage of a blown coverage to hit a wide-open Dan Arnold for a 59-yard touchdown on the opening drive, he completed just two of his next nine passes for a total of 14 yards. A number of those throws were misses by Murray.
The explosive plays have been missing from the Arizona offense. The Cardinals had 19 plays of 30 yards or more through Week 11, the third most of any team in the league. Over the past two weeks, their lone big play is that blown coverage against Arnold. It's also the only deep pass Murray has completed over the past two weeks, and while Kliff Kingsbury was able to heat up Murray by going to more quick game in the second half, the Rams sat on his throws at the sticks and returned one for a pick-six.
Whether it owes to the shoulder injury, a renewed focus from defenses or something else, Murray also hasn't been impactful as a runner. Through the Bills game, he was averaging 67 rushing yards and more than one rushing touchdown per contest. During this three-game losing streak, he has failed to score and has totaled just 61 rushing yards. Kingsbury was calling his number for nearly six designed runs per game through the Bills game, but that figure is down to two per contest over the past three weeks.
However, Murray isn't the only issue. The Cardinals are 29th in win probability added on defense over the past two weeks, with a struggling Jared Goff getting right against them on Sunday. Goff went 37-of-47 for 351 yards and could have done more if Sean McVay wanted to run up the score. Opposing offenses have converted 52.5% of the time against them on third down during the losing streak. Murray was able to save the Cardinals when he was playing at his highest level earlier this season. Now, with Murray struggling, the rest of Arizona's roster might not be up to returning the favor.
3. San Francisco 49ers (5-6)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 39.8%
Despite losing three straight to the Packers, Saints and Seahawks, the 49ers are well positioned to make a playoff run. In part, that's because of their schedule; they still have two games against the NFC East to come, and while they have a tough matchup in their new home of Arizona against the Bills on Monday night, they finish up with a pair of critical divisional games against the Cardinals and Seahawks. Even if Kyle Shanahan's team loses to the Bills, The Upshot's model suggests that the Niners would still have a 41% chance of making it to the postseason if they sweep the East and head into the final two games at 7-8.
I think the FPI might be a little optimistic about San Francisco's chances, if only because it's tough for a model to realize just how much the Niners have lost via injury already this season. They've gotten players such as Richard Sherman and Deebo Samuel back in recent weeks, but they aren't going to have their two best edge rushers (Nick Bosa and Dee Ford) or their starting quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo) the rest of the way. Tight end George Kittle also might not be back.
Realistically, San Francisco needs to hope that the returning weapons unlock something more out of Nick Mullens, who ranks 28th in Total QBR this season. Shanahan has tried to manufacture easy completions for his passer, but the offense breaks down when opposing defenses get on Mullens. The undrafted free agent has been pressured on more than 31% of his dropbacks, and he has posted a league-low QBR of 3.5 when pressured. The Bills rank third in the NFL in pressure rate, which doesn't bode well for the Niners on Monday.
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 90%
For all the anguish about what's going wrong in Tampa Bay, the Bucs are still in good shape. No, they're not going to catch the Saints for the NFC South title or the top seed in the conference. At the same time, a Buccaneers team that hasn't made the playoffs since 2007 is almost a sure thing to make it this season. Winning two of their final four games would basically lock them in, and while there aren't any total walkovers left on the calendar, they still have a game against the Lions and a home-and-home against the Falcons.
I'm still optimistic about the Bucs. For one, they have only one loss against a team that isn't currently in first place, with that coming against the Bears in Week 5. Tampa ranked third in DVOA heading into Week 13, in part because it had faced the league's third-toughest schedule. The Bucs have the fifth-easiest schedule in football the rest of the way, and if they sweep their final four games, they would be prohibitive favorites to finish with the fifth seed and play the NFC East winner in the wild-card round.
Their 1-3 stretch has also been driven by an unlikely run of giveaways. They turned the ball over just eight times during their 6-2 start, but they've now given the ball away eight times over their past four games. Given Tom Brady's history, I don't see much of a reason for that to continue.
I also wrote about how Brady was struggling against pass pressure last week, but his final four games will come against teams ranked 16th (Falcons), 25th (Vikings) and 31st (Lions) in pressure rate. My suspicion is that the Bucs will finish strong and we'll see articles about how they're peaking at the right time or finally figuring themselves out in advance of the postseason. In reality, it'll just be because their schedule got easier.
1. Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
FPI chances to make the playoffs: 96.3%
It was one thing to lose in shootouts to the Cardinals and Bills or in a tough game against the Rams. Losing to the Giants at home, though? That one wasn't supposed to happen. Facing a Giants defense that ranked 28th in DVOA after Week 11 (and 21st after shutting down Brandon Allen and the Bengals the following week), Sunday was supposed to be a get-right game for the Seattle offense. Instead, the Seahawks scored 10 points on 12 possessions. The defense and special teams might have outscored the offense Sunday with slightly better luck and execution. It wasn't pretty.
There wasn't one lone factor that caused the drop-off, but the most conspicuous problem might be at right tackle. By the middle of Sunday's game, Seattle was down its top three choices at right tackle in Brandon Shell, Cedric Ogbuehi and Jamarco Jones. The fourth-string option was former Giants tackle Chad Wheeler, who hadn't played an offensive snap since 2018. Wheeler tripped over a fellow lineman's feet on his first snap while trying to block against a defensive line stunt on his first snap and gave up four hurries on his first nine plays. Russell Wilson was hurried more than 30% of the time and faced his second-highest pressure rate of the season. For one fateful day, the Seahawks actually made Leonard Williams (who had 2.5 sacks) look like a franchise defender.
The offensive line generally hasn't been the problem, though; the Seahawks still rank fifth in pass block win rate, suggesting that Wilson has had 2.5 seconds to throw on most downs. When he has had more time than normal to throw, though, he hasn't been as productive. During the first half of the year, when quarterbacks took at least three seconds before throwing the ball, he posted the best QBR (96.2) of anybody in the league. During Seattle's 2-2 stretch, he has come back to the pack in those situations, with his 77.1 QBR ranking 13th.
Wilson also hasn't been as effective on those ultra-deep passes. Nobody hit more rainbow shots in the first half than he did, as he was 13-of-20 on throws traveling 30 or more yards in the air. The rest of the league completes those passes less than 33% of the time. Over the past four games, though, Wilson is 1-of-8 on ultra-deep throws. His completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) over the first half of the year was a league-best 6.7%. Over the last four games, his CPOE is 1.6%, though it's still better than expected.
The offense as a whole just hasn't been as good where it counts. The same offense that went 7-of-9 on fourth-down conversions during the first half of the season is 0-for-4 on fourth down over the past four weeks. Wilson & Co. converted more than 86% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns during the first half; that's down to 41.7% during the 2-2 stretch, including a field goal on their lone trip inside the 20 on Sunday.
I'm fascinated to see how Pete Carroll responds. The Seahawks have taken their foot off the cooking gas as the season's gone on, but not by much; after passing at the league's highest rate on early downs in neutral situations over the first half of the season, they are passing at its sixth-highest rate over the 2-2 stretch. They were the league's most run-heavy team in those same situations in 2018 and 2019. We know Carroll has an outsized affection and appreciation for the running game. With the Seahawks struggling on offense, will he go back to the heavy rushing attack?
I hope not. For one, while they should stomp the Jets next week, they'll be facing a team that ranks eighth in rush defense DVOA and dead last against the pass. Furthermore, we've seen the limitations of this run-heavy approach in the playoffs, when the Seahawks have wasted most of their games against the Cowboys and Packers before letting Wilson try to save the day. The highest ceiling they have comes by combining their passing offense from the first half of the season with the improving defense we've seen over the last month of the season. Let Russ keep cooking.