If there's one thing we can say with some certainty about the 2020 NFL playoff picture, it's that the AFC is historically top-heavy. All seven AFC playoff teams are 8-4 or better. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, it's the first time since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger that one conference had that many teams with a winning percentage of .667 or better through Week 13. (The AFC also has four teams with three or fewer wins.)
Let's take a closer look at where the NFL playoff picture. We'll use ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) to provide context where necessary.
Note: X denotes a team that has clinched a playoff berth, Y shows a team that has clinched its division and Z indicates a team that has secured a first-round bye.
AFC
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99.9%
FPI chances to win division: 97.6%
The good news is that the Steelers are still atop the AFC despite Monday's home loss to the Washington Football Team. They hold the conference-record tiebreaker over the Chiefs. The bad news: The Steelers lost at home to Washington, a week after barely holding on against a deeply outmanned Ravens team. The loss also means that the Steelers, despite leading the AFC throughout the season, have not yet clinched a playoff spot, let alone the AFC North. The playoff spot could come as early as Week 14, but the Steelers' schedule is about to get tougher.
Up next: at Bills
2. Kansas City Chiefs (11-1) -- X
FPI chances to make playoffs: 100%
FPI chances to win division: 99.9%
The Chiefs are making it more difficult than they would like, winning three consecutive games by one score and coming back from a deficit on Sunday night to defeat the Broncos. Regardless, they have their best record through 13 weeks in the Andy Reid era, have clinched a playoff berth and are primed to move into the AFC's top seed if the Steelers slip even a bit. The last time they were 11-1 through 13 weeks was 2003.
Up next: at Dolphins
3. Buffalo Bills (9-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 96.4%
FPI chances to win division: 90.8%
Monday night's victory against the 49ers allowed the Bills to maintain their AFC East lead over the surging Dolphins and Patriots. The Bills are playing exactly the way you would hope a team would play as it enters the final month of the season. They've won five of their past six, with the only loss coming on a Hail Mary pass against the Cardinals, and will need to keep it up. FPI ranks their remaining schedule as the seventh-most difficult in the NFL. It includes games against the Steelers, Patriots and Dolphins.
Up next: vs. Steelers
4. Tennessee Titans (8-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 85.9%
FPI chances to win division: 63.7%
The Titans squandered some breathing room in the AFC South, falling short in a monster second-half comeback against the Browns. If you outscore your opponent 28-3 in the second half, you usually win. But a 38-7 halftime deficit rendered it moot. They are again tied with the Colts in the division, although they hold the divisional-record tiebreaker for now. And if they're a team truly worthy of a divisional championship, they'll win their next two games -- at the Jaguars and at home against the Lions.
Up next: at Jaguars
5. Cleveland Browns (9-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 86.8%
FPI chances to win division: 2.4%
Week 13 was the point where the Browns' playoff push seemed likely to stall. It's one thing to beat the Texans, Eagles and Jaguars -- three non-playoff teams -- by a combined seven points. It's another to travel to do the same to the Titans. But a stunning 31-point halftime lead was enough to secure the Browns' ninth win, ensure their first winning season since 2007 and leave them atop the AFC wild-card race. Every game from here on out will be the biggest for the Browns in decades, and next up is the AFC North rival Ravens on Monday Night Football.
Up next: vs. Ravens
6. Miami Dolphins (8-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 41.3%
FPI chances to win division: 7.2%
Sunday delivered the Dolphins' seventh victory in eight games, a streak that has put them in position to swoop into first place in the AFC East should the Bills stumble. It won't happen in Week 14, as the Bills have the head-to-head tiebreaker. But the Dolphins are a lot closer to the playoffs than most anyone thought they would be in Year 2 of coach Brian Flores' tenure.
Up next: vs. Chiefs
7. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 62.5%
FPI chances to win division: 36.3%
The Colts won for the fifth time in seven games Sunday, holding off the Texans to ensure a non-losing season for the first time in three years. Next Sunday will bring a huge game at Las Vegas. The Raiders have a better division and conference record, meaning they would hold a tiebreaker if they beat the Colts and both teams are 8-5 after Week 14.
Up next: at Raiders
Also in the AFC mix
Las Vegas Raiders (7-5): A miracle win over the Jets prevented a playoff-crushing loss, but the Raiders still must contend with competitors above and below them in the standings.
Baltimore Ravens (7-5): The Ravens snapped their three-game losing streak on Tuesday night, but they still trail the Raiders because of the conference-record tiebreaker.
New England Patriots (6-7): The Patriots took a big step backward with their loss to the Rams on Thursday and now need to win out (plus likely get some help) to have any shot.
NFC
1. New Orleans Saints (10-2) -- X
FPI chances to make playoffs: 100%
FPI chances to win division: 99.7%
The Saints became the first team this season to clinch a playoff berth, boosted by their victory Sunday in Atlanta combined with the Bears' home loss to the Lions. They have now won nine consecutive games, including three started by backup quarterback Taysom Hill, and could clinch the NFC South as early as next week.
Up next: at Eagles
2. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99.9%
FPI chances to win division: 99.7%
The Packers have guaranteed that coach Matt LaFleur will have winning seasons in each of his first two years in Green Bay. They could clinch his second consecutive NFC North title as early as next week, with a victory and a Vikings loss. And when you think about their Week 3 victory over the Saints and look at the rest of the NFC, is there a team you would pick to win the conference ahead of them?
Up next: at Lions
3. Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 99.1%
FPI chances to win division: 65.0%
Last Sunday was a big day for the Rams. They entered the day with a 31% chance to win the NFC West, according to FPI. But after winning in Arizona, the Rams watched as the Seahawks were upset at home by the Giants. That flipped the FPI script, and now the Rams are 65% favorites in the division.
There is plenty of work to do, most importantly in Week 16 (at Seattle) and Week 17 (vs. Cardinals), but they have a substantial advantage in a key tiebreaker. Their conference record is 8-2, a full 1½ games better than the Seahawks' conference record and four better than the Cardinals' mark.
Up next: vs. Jets (Week 15)
4. New York Giants (5-7)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 56.8%
FPI chances to win division: 56.4%
Their record is still ugly, but the Giants have now won four consecutive games. They put a signature victory on their ledger on Sunday, taking it to the Seahawks in Seattle, and they did it with backup quarterback Colt McCoy -- who had not won a start since Week 8 of the 2014 season.
No one should be ready to celebrate the revival of the NFC East quite yet. The Giants' victory Sunday was only the second win by an NFC East team this season against a team with a record above .500 at the time. Washington's victory on Monday over the Steelers was the third. That game left the teams tied, but the Giants have the head-to-head tiebreaker, and thus, they are officially still in first place.
Up next: vs. Cardinals
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 97.4%
FPI chances to win division: 33.2%
There's no other way to put it: Sunday was a bad day for the Seahawks, not only because they lost at home to the Giants (now 5-7) but also because they were pushed around in a way that doesn't bode well for a playoff run. They remain in good position for a wild-card spot, and they could overtake the Rams with a victory in Week 16 if both teams' records remain the same at that point. But for the time being, FPI considers the Rams (65%) a better NFC West bet than the Seahawks (33%).
Up next: vs. Jets
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 92.1%
FPI chances to win division: 0.3%
The Buccaneers spent their bye week watching the wild-card race tighten up a bit. They'll host the Vikings in Week 14, and a loss would push them down to the No. 7 position. Their spot in the playoffs still looks pretty good -- FPI is putting it at 92% -- but it's worth remembering that the Buccaneers lost three of four heading into their bye.
Up next: vs. Vikings
7. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
FPI chances to make playoffs: 31.9%
FPI chances to win division: 0.3%
They had to go into overtime at home against the Jaguars to do it, but the Vikings won Sunday for the fifth time in six games. Their victory, combined with the Cardinals' loss to the Rams, moved them up to the No. 7 spot. FPI, however, actually favors the Cardinals (40.1%) to ultimately win this spot over the Vikings (31.9%), in part because of a Vikings schedule that will take them to Tampa Bay and New Orleans in the final four weeks.
Up next: at Buccaneers
Also in the NFC mix
Arizona Cardinals (6-6): Although FPI gives them a better chance to make the playoffs than the Vikings, there's no getting around the fact that the Cardinals have lost four of their past five and need to get their offense in gear.
Washington Football Team (5-7): Monday's victory in Pittsburgh was inspiring and bodes well for the immediate future, but ultimately, Washington still trails the Giants in the NFC East because of the head-to-head tiebreaker.