It's tough for anything to be perfect in 2020. The Steelers are 11-0, but if you saw them struggle to put away what amounted to the Ravens' JV team on Wednesday, you can see that even they have flaws. The same is true for the other organizations at the head of the Super Bowl race. The defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are 10-1 and the Saints are 9-2, but they both lost to a Raiders team that just got blown out by the 4-7 Falcons. On the right day and with the right matchup, just about any team in the NFL can beat anybody else.
Let's try to identify the toughest matchup for each of the four top Super Bowl contenders in each conference and pick which team all eight might want to avoid in January. In doing so, I'm going to examine the weakness each of these near-playoff locks are going to carry with them into January. Teams can overcome those issues, as we saw with the Chiefs a year ago, but bad matchups helped lead to early playoff exits for teams such as the Ravens and Saints last January. All eight of these teams probably think they can beat anyone they face, but they would probably rather avoid at least one rival. Here are which teams and why:
Jump to a team:
AFC: PIT | KC | TEN | BUF
NFC: NO | GB | TB | SEA
AFC
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-0)
Playoff kryptonite: the running game
It's hard to pick too many holes in the Steelers' résumé, but if there's one thing that stands out, it's the inefficiency of the Pittsburgh rushing attack. The Steelers rank 27th in the league in rush offense DVOA despite facing the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in football. James Conner & Co. have been below average in short-yardage situations, and Pittsburgh has only two runs for more than 30 yards all season, one of which was a 58-yard end around by Ray Ray McCloud.
Smartly, the Steelers have self-scouted and adjusted their offense as the season has progressed. Through Week 6, on early downs in neutral situations, they threw at the 17th-heaviest rate in the league. With Chase Claypool emerging and the running game struggling, they have shifted to a pass-first attack. From Week 7 on, they have been the second-most pass-happy team in those same situations. It's great coaching to adjust and play to your strengths, but what if a great pass defense forces Pittsburgh to line up and run the ball?
Team to avoid: New Orleans Saints
The Steelers have the NFL's best pass defense. (Thankfully, they can't play themselves in January.) There's a big drop-off from No. 1 to No. 2, but the Saints rank second, and they're only getting better. Since their Week 6 bye, they are allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a QBR of just 38.2, which is slightly ahead of what even the Steelers have done over that same time frame. If New Orleans can slow down the Pittsburgh passing attack, the Steelers might be forced to try to move the ball on the ground.
Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
Playoff kryptonite: stopping the run
The Chiefs have made a smart, informed decision about how to build their team. For every anachronistic coach who talks about teams winning by running the ball and stopping the run, games are won in 2020 by throwing the ball and stopping the pass. You know the defending champs can do the former, and they are a respectable 13th in DVOA against the pass. Though you might complete some passes against the Chiefs, they also have the league's fifth-highest interception rate.
As was the case last season, though, they do not stop the run. In 2019, they ranked 26th in rush defense DVOA. This year, Steve Spagnuolo's group is dead last in the same category. Last season, while teams still gave them some trouble against the run in the playoffs, their run defense improved in January. The 2019 Chiefs were the league's second-worst run defense by EPA per play, but during the postseason, they were the fourth-best run defense by the same measure. They might be able to turn on that run defense again in January, but they would rather avoid a team with a dominant run game.
Team to avoid: Tennessee Titans
Yes, I know. The Chiefs defeated the Titans during the 2019 playoffs, holding Derrick Henry to 3.6 yards per carry in the process. That's true. Tennessee was also up 10-0 and 17-7 at different points in the first half of the game before Kansas City blew things open after that magical scramble from Patrick Mahomes just before halftime. The Titans also beat the Chiefs during the 2019 regular season 35-32 in a game in which Mahomes' 446 passing yards and three touchdowns were outdueled by Henry's 188 rushing yards and two scores. We know the Chiefs can beat any team, but the Titans have been a tough out for them.
Tennessee Titans (8-3)
Playoff kryptonite: pass pressure
Tennessee's offseason plan to upgrade its pass rush has failed spectacularly. General manager Jon Robinson guaranteed $22 million to the veteran duo of Vic Beasley Jr. and Jadeveon Clowney in the hopes of finding a significant edge rusher across from Harold Landry, and it's entirely possible that the pair might finish their careers in Nashville without recording a single sack. Beasley has already been cut after five unimposing games, and Clowney is on injured reserve because of a knee injury. These were high-risk, high-reward signings, but no one could have expected a combined oh-fer from two former Pro Bowlers.
Unsurprisingly, the Titans have struggled to create significant pass pressure. Mike Vrabel's defense ranks 30th in sack rate and 27th in pressure rate, making it virtually impossible to piece together a competent pass defense. To put that in context, on a leaguewide basis, opposing defenses give up a QBR of 24.7 when they get pressure, with that mark rising to 76.9 when they don't get after the opposing quarterback. Pressure turns the average quarterback into the average 2020 snap from Brian Hoyer. A lack of pressure turns that same quarterback into Russell Wilson. The Titans, without steady pass pressure, rank a lowly 27th in pass defense DVOA.
Team to avoid: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We've seen pressure undo Tom Brady this season. When he has been pressured in 2020, the 43-year-old has posted a QBR of just 6.5, which ranks below Sam Darnold and Carson Wentz for 28th in the league. When the Bucs have protected their star quarterback, he has been the same old Brady, with his 82.0 QBR ranking ninth in the league. Tampa also possesses the league's best run defense by DVOA, making Devin White & Co. a tough matchup for Henry.
Buffalo Bills (8-3)
Playoff kryptonite: deep pass defense
The Bills earned a deserved reputation as one of the league's best defenses after their performances under Sean McDermott in 2018 and 2019, but they haven't been up to their usual form this season. While they were solid against the Chargers in Week 12, they rank 16th in defensive DVOA, down from second in 2018 and seventh a year ago.
Owing perhaps to injuries and inconsistent play at cornerback, Buffalo has been beatable deep this season. It isn't giving up many deep passes, but when teams do take shots, they have usually been successful. Against passes of 16 or more yards in the air, the Bills rank 31st in QBR allowed (97.1) and completion percentage (53.7%) and 32nd in yards per attempt (16.0).
Team to avoid: Kansas City Chiefs
In their game earlier this season, the Bills played safe coverages and dared Mahomes to hand the ball off to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The strategy didn't work; the rookie running back ran the ball 26 times for 161 yards, and Mahomes turned his two deep shots into a pair of completions for 57 yards. The fourth-year passer leads the league in QBR (99.4) and is third in passer rating (130.7) on deep shots in 2020. The Bills also rank 31st in the league in QBR allowed when a passer gets three or more seconds before throwing, and Mahomes has a league-best 94.7 when he holds onto the ball for at least three seconds before delivering a pass.
NFC
New Orleans Saints (9-2)
Playoff kryptonite: red zone defense
You might have heard of the idea of a "bend-but-don't-break" defense. The concept is mostly a myth; I haven't found any defenses that have consistently allowed teams to march up and down the field before shutting things down inside the 20. The Saints, though, have been the opposite of a "bend-but-don't-break" defense in 2020. They have allowed opposing offenses to make it into the red zone only 29 times in 11 games, the third-best mark in the league. Once they get there, though, teams have scored touchdowns 72.4% of the time, which is the second-highest rate.
Now, there are reasons to think that they will be better than this in the red zone come January. Twenty-nine red zone opportunities isn't a large sample, which is one of the reasons why red zone performance is inconsistent from year to year. In an even smaller sample, they've also improved dramatically over the past month; since the start of November, Dennis Allen's defense has given up only two touchdowns on seven trips to the red zone. Then again, New Orleans has gone up against backup quarterbacks in three of those five games, including Kendall Hinton in Sunday's surreal game against the Broncos.
Team to avoid: Green Bay Packers
The Packers rank fourth in two red-zone-related categories. Aaron Rodgers gets his team into the red zone on more than 37% of its possessions, and when they get there, they score an average of 5.7 points per possession. The Saints have already had to deal with that problem; when they lost to the Packers in Week 3, Green Bay worked the ball into the red zone five times and scored four touchdowns, both of which are tied for season highs against New Orleans.
Green Bay Packers (8-3)
Playoff kryptonite: forcing takeaways
On offense, Rodgers & Co. are one of the best teams at avoiding giveaways to the opposing defense. The Packers turn the ball over on only 7% of their possessions, which is the third-best rate in the league. That's the good news. On the other side of the ball, though, they have forced takeaways on only 10.6% of opposing possessions, which ranks 20th. That number was even worse over their first nine games, when they had only seven takeaways, before forcing five over the past two weeks. Three of those came courtesy of Mitchell Trubisky on Sunday night.
If the Packers can keep that newfound turnover rate up, they'll be in great shape. If not, they'll have to continue protecting the ball at one of the league's best rates. Every team gets better when they win the turnover battle, but the Packers might be an extreme example. Under coach Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 19-1 when it wins or even ties the turnover battle, including a 7-0 mark this season. When it produces a negative turnover margin, though, it is 4-6. The Packers are 1-3 in those games this season -- and that win was a two-point victory at home against the Jaguars.
Team to avoid: Pittsburgh Steelers
Rodgers beat Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers for his lone Super Bowl title, but the Packers probably don't want to see the Steelers in Tampa this February. Mike Tomlin's team has the league's highest takeaway rate on defense at 17.3%. On offense, even given their increased emphasis on the pass, the Steelers have turned the ball over just 7.1% of the time, the third-best rate in the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
Playoff kryptonite: handling pass pressure
I mentioned this in the Titans section, but if you've watched the Buccaneers this season, you've seen Brady struggle when teams have gotten to him with pressure. He ranks ninth in QBR when teams don't pressure him, falling to 28th when they do, and this isn't a new trend. Last season, he ranked 16th when unpressured but 25th when the opposing pass rush bothered him. He's not getting pressured as frequently in 2020, with that rate falling from more than 23% in 2019 to 19.1% this season, but during this 1-3 stretch for the Bucs, opposing defenses have pressured him 27.2% of the time. Unsurprisingly, Brady's numbers have fallen off over that same time frame.
From the moment he signed with the Buccaneers, I've been fascinated by the fit with Bruce Arians. Arians has historically been one of the NFL's most aggressive coaches with instructing his quarterback to throw downfield. Brady has typically preferred to throw short, accurate passes and hit open receivers for easy completions. So far, the coach has mostly won out. Even with the league throwing shorter passes, Brady is averaging 8.4 air yards per attempt, the seventh-highest average in the league and his second-highest mark since 2013.
The Buccaneers are on a bye, and given their recent struggles, I wonder whether we'll see things shift after the break. When Peyton Manning went to Denver in 2012, Grantland's Chris Brown wrote about how the Broncos were able to get Manning going after a slow start by reinstalling the offensive concepts Manning ran in Indianapolis. Could we see the same thing in Tampa? That would mean adding more quick game and the core play-action concepts Brady utilized with Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski for years.
Team to avoid: New Orleans Saints
We could just as easily pick the Steelers or Chiefs here, since those teams have the league's top two pressure rates, but it just seems logical to pick the team that has already beaten the Buccaneers twice in 2020. (For what it's worth, if you're worried about a team struggling to beat an opponent three times in the same season, don't be: Teams that beat their divisional rivals twice during the regular season are 14-7 against those teams in the postseason.) The Saints' 38-3 win over the Bucs in Week 9 was the most dominant victory I've seen from any team over another Super Bowl contender all season.
Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
Playoff kryptonite: pass defense
While the Seahawks have improved in recent weeks, they ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA after Monday night's victory over the Eagles. The Seahawks' 8-3 record is a product of Russell Wilson's incredible play, and their defense has managed to come up with big run stops in short yardage to save what would have been losses against the Patriots and Vikings, but Pete Carroll has never had a pass defense like this during his time with Seattle. A month of games against the NFC East and the only team the NFC East would be embarrassed to admit (the Jets) will help the Seahawks' numbers look better, but the pass defense is the clear weakness.
The best hope for the Seahawks is that they get healthier over the second half of the season. Shaquill Griffin, the team's top cornerback, was back in the lineup for the win over Philadelphia after sitting out four games, although fellow starter Quinton Dunbar is still on injured reserve. Carlos Dunlap, who has helped spur the pass rush, went down against Philadelphia because of a foot injury, but the hope is that he won't miss much time. The key addition for Seattle this offseason was Jamal Adams, who missed four games in October because of a groin injury, but the defense has actually been better without him on the field this year by both passer rating and QBR.
Team to avoid: Kansas City Chiefs
I have to admit that I love the idea of a Kansas City-Seattle Super Bowl, but the idea might not be quite as appealing to Seahawks fans. It's difficult to imagine a scarier matchup for them than Andy Reid and Mahomes. We saw the Bills go incredibly pass-happy during the first half of their win over the Seahawks to attack Seattle's weakness, and with the Chiefs posting the league's highest pass rate in neutral situations since the start of Week 8, I suspect Reid would have few qualms about adopting a similar approach against Carroll's defense.