ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks NFL insiders to pick winners in select games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 15. This week's games: Chargers-Chiefs, Eagles-Rams, Packers-Bears, Cowboys-Colts and Patriots-Steelers.
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday: 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: KC by 3.5 | Insiders pick: KC (2/3)
Two of three insiders picked the Chiefs, but all three had some concerns. They thought Kareem Hunt's absence threatened to make Kansas City a little too one-dimensional. They worried about Tyreek Hill's injury. And there was some thought that the Chiefs had reached the point in the season when opponents tend to start figuring out the different offensive wrinkles that Andy Reid brings into each season.
"I'm going to buck the trend and go with the Chargers," one of the insiders said. "I think the Chiefs have not been the same without that running back. With 10 [Hill] a little banged up, they could be less explosive. And then the Chargers will be able to play a physical brand of football on offense, and the Chiefs do not have enough on defense to stop them."
Hunt's replacement, Spencer Ware, is doubtful for this game. Hill is expected to play despite being listed as questionable. Chargers running back Melvin Gordon also is questionable. The short week is not helping any of them be at their best.
"If I knew Gordon was playing, that would help," another insider said. "My thing on the Chargers is, if they get down against Kansas City, that right tackle [Sam Tevi] does not pass-protect well enough. That is against Justin Houston, too. But if Tyreek Hill is really limited or does not play, that would maybe flip it."
The Chargers have lost nine straight in the series.
"It was interesting seeing the Chargers struggling to put away the Bengals last week," the third insider said. "I'll take the home team on Thursday night. I would not be surprised if the Chargers won, especially with the Chiefs putting so much into that Baltimore game. I think the Chiefs could use a little more balance or it won't be sustainable for [Patrick] Mahomes long term."
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: CHI by 6 | Insiders pick: CHI (3/3)
While all three insiders picked Chicago, they did not expect Aaron Rodgers to resemble a Week 14 Jared Goff in this matchup.
"This feels like a game where Aaron Rodgers blows it up and we all say he is awesome," one of the insiders said.
Rodgers' 57.4 Total QBR for the season marks a career low through 14 games. The Green Bay defense, meanwhile, has played average or better in a career-low 31 percent of his starts (average or better is defined here as 50 or higher on ESPN's 100-point efficiency scale).
"Green Bay's offensive line is going to get a significant test because no one has been able to block Akiem Hicks all year," another insider said. "That is on the inside, and then you have Khalil Mack on the outside. Big picture, this will be a good test against the critics' assertions that there is something wrong with Rodgers. I've studied the video and don't see much wrong at all."
Another insider doubted whether the Packers' defense was good enough to test his contention that Chicago will ultimately need more from Mitchell Trubisky than frequent rushing production and short passes.
"Green Bay's offensive line is suspect, so they are getting the ball out early," the third insider said. "They are a little makeshift on defense, but Atlanta was not very good against them in the cold. If you are Chicago, the main worry is that Rodgers is going to get the ball out, so you have to cover, and then do you have a hangover from the big Sunday night win?"
Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: IND by 3 | Insiders pick: DAL (2/3)
Dak Prescott has completed 31 of 35 passes for 390 yards with one touchdown, no picks and a league-high 122.6 passer rating since Week 9 against defenses with two high safeties, according to NFL Next Gen Stats tracking. That is potentially interesting in this matchup because Indy has played more snaps with two high safeties than any team in the league.
"This is the Rod Marinelli defense bowl with his former understudy [Matt Eberflus] coordinating the Indy defense," one of the insiders said. "Dallas will play more [Cover] 3, but it is the nomenclature and the alignments of the fronts that are familiar. There will be one or two coverage beaters provided just from knowledge of the scheme and playing against a similar defense all through training camp. The QBs and lines should know where the blocking targets are."
One insider picking Dallas didn't think Indy was strong enough on defense, even though the Colts held a multidimensional Texans offense to 21 points last week.
"The Colts are all over the place, going from can't score against the Jaguars to winning in Houston," this insider said. "I just think the Cowboys' defense will handle them and that will be the difference in the game."
The insider picking Indy liked the Colts' young defense, which has allowed 21 fewer explosive plays than it had allowed at this point last season, the NFL's biggest year-over-year improvement.
"They have young guys flying around and then the quarterback [Andrew Luck] is still prolific and he will not beat himself," this insider said. "The game could go either way, but I will take Indy."
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: NE by 2.5 | Insiders pick: PIT (2/3)
The two insiders picking Pittsburgh wanted to know whether the Steelers would have running back James Conner and how badly Ben Roethlisberger's ribs were injured. They were not unconditionally supportive of the Steelers in this matchup and said they would take the Patriots if news broke casting a more negative light on those injury situations.
"When you start doing projections, Pittsburgh and Carolina were the two teams you thought might collapse over their final four games, especially with Roethlisberger hurt, and then with Carolina playing New Orleans twice," the insider picking New England outright said. "The Steelers look like a team that will struggle and dip into the playoffs."
Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is coming off his first 100-yard receiving game since Week 1. His 168-yard game against Pittsburgh in Week 15 last season remains a career high for him in 125 games, counting playoffs. The Steelers' 2018 opponents have enjoyed success targeting tight ends. They have 73 receptions (fourth most) for 853 yards (eighth most) and seven touchdowns (fifth most) with no interceptions. That will be one matchup to watch.
"Miami let Gronk run free through their zone defense last week and Gronk had a big game," one of the insiders said. "The concept of Gronk being on the decline is probably a little exaggerated, but it would be interesting if someone got in his face."
Another insider said he thought Roethlisberger was "breaking down in front of our eyes" down the stretch. While the Steelers are the team riding a three-game losing streak, the Patriots' implosion at the end of both halves last week at Miami was arguably as notable.
"I think New England is going to have a significant bounce-back game," the insider picking the Patriots said. "The Patriots will play their best game on the road coming off a loss, but with Pittsburgh's backs against the wall, this should be a good game."
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday: 8:20 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: LAR by 11 | Insiders pick: LAR (3/3)
The Eagles are a double-digit underdog against the Rams for only the second time in the past 20 regular-season or playoff meetings between the teams, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com. They previously covered as 11-point underdogs during a January 2002 playoff loss at St. Louis.
"The Eagles don't have enough in the secondary with all these injuries," one of the insiders said. "L.A. will beat them up pretty good."
Philly could have Nick Foles instead of the injured Carson Wentz at quarterback. That could shift some focus away from the Eagles' defensive deterioration.
Philadelphia has allowed 112 explosive plays this season, defined as rushes gaining at least 12 yards or passes gaining at least 16. That is 41 more than the Eagles allowed through the same number of games last season, the NFL's largest year-over-year swing in the wrong direction. The Rams have 130 such plays on offense, third most in the NFL and 29 more than last season.
"I think the Rams will be fine," another insider said. "It might end up being a little closer than the spread if Philly gets good QB play. I thought the Eagles were going to beat the Cowboys and the Cowboys gave them every chance to do it, but the Eagles could not score."