SEATTLE -- NFL executives and agents say provocative things when asked about the next contract for Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson.
"I see a big standoff coming."
"What are you really getting out of it right now by extending him?"
"I think they are going to be open to moving him."
"He is going to come in above [Aaron] Rodgers."
"Why would anybody get more than Rodgers? Why should anybody, straight-faced, make that argument?"
Wilson, 30, is putting together one of his finest statistical seasons, a leading reason Seattle is in the playoff hunt despite skepticism from preseason oddsmakers. His contract runs through 2019, putting him only a few months away from being on the clock for a new deal.
It's a negotiation that will be closely watched. Here are the factors that will ultimately drive the deal, along with insights from league insiders as to what that contract extension is going to look like.
Wilson losing ground
Fifty NFL coaches and evaluators polled over the summer for my 2018 QB Tiers survey placed Wilson sixth among all starters. They could plausibly bump Seattle's seventh-year QB into the top five, ahead of Matt Ryan, based on this season.
But as Wilson ascends on the field, he is losing ground on the financial balance sheets.
When Wilson signed his current deal in August 2015, only Rodgers stood ahead of him in average annual salary. Wilson now ranks 11th at the position after Rodgers, Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Alex Smith and Joe Flacco signed new deals.
Wilson is going to climb that list by 2020, one way or another. He will either have a new contract by then, or he will be playing on a franchise tag projected to be $30.3 million, a big jump from his current $21.9 million average. Rodgers ($33.5 million), Ryan ($30 million) and Cousins ($28 million) comprise the top three right now.
A position of strength for Wilson
Wilson had earned less than $2.2 million through three NFL seasons when he negotiated his current extension with one year and $1.5 million left on his rookie deal. His relatively minuscule career earnings to that point gave him every reason to sign an extension.
The dynamics will be vastly different this time. Wilson will enter the coming offseason with more than $74 million in career earnings, including his $15.5 million salary this season. His 2019 base salary is $17 million. Future franchise-tag values of $30.3 million (2020) and $36.412 million (2021) theoretically await.
"Russell had to do a deal the last time because he had made no real money," an agent said. "If he waits and plays out the next few years, he will be 33 years old in his absolute prime, having just made nearly $100 million over a four-year period. He's in a great position. Aaron Rodgers was not in a great position. He was older and had been injured, so he was sort of like, 'Man, I better lock in the signing bonus and everything now.'"
A position of strength for the Seahawks, too
The franchise tags give the Seahawks control of their quarterback for $83.756 million over the next three seasons, an average of $27.9 million per year. While the respective $30.3 million and $36.412 million cap charges in 2020 and 2021 would be steep, they would not be prohibitive if the salary cap keeps increasing by roughly 8 percent annually.
"If you are the Seahawks and you do a five-year extension, you are buying ages 34, 35 and 36," an exec from a different team said. "You already have him for 32 and 33 [via the franchise tag]. What are you really getting out of it right now by extending him?"
This exec wondered why the Packers were eager to purchase Rodgers' age-37 and age-38 seasons. He noted that Smith's recent career-threatening injury is a risk factor teams with mobile quarterbacks should take into account when purchasing seasons in the distant future.
What deal Wilson should accept (agent's view)
An agent who has negotiated top quarterback contracts said Wilson should seek a fully guaranteed four-year, $140 million deal ($35 million average). That would move Wilson past Rodgers into the top spot on the quarterback salary list.
"If it were me this offseason, yeah, I would say that is the minimum," this agent said, pointing out that Garoppolo got $27.5 million per year with seven starts on his résumé. "I think he is going to come in above Rodgers."
When Wilson signed his current contract, his agent let it be known soon afterward that his client accepted a smaller number to help the Seahawks keep together the core of their team. Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner signed an extension shortly after Wilson's deal was done.
"If Russell really wants to hit the market like Kirk Cousins did, yeah, he is going to play it out," an exec said. "If he wants to continue to build his legacy, and he loves the organization and the city and all the things that come along with being a starting quarterback in the NFL, then he will be reasonable on an extension."
What deal Wilson should accept (exec's view)
An exec who has negotiated quarterback contracts said Wilson should ask for a three-year extension worth $100 million. That would be in addition to the $17 million that Wilson is scheduled to earn in 2019 under his current contract.
The team could view the new deal as four years and $117 million ($29.25 million average) when taking into account Wilson's 2019 salary, but the extension would average $33.3 million per year, putting Wilson right below Rodgers. That is exactly where Wilson landed when signing his current contract. Wilson could then return to the market in March 2022. He would be 33 years old, younger than Rodgers was when Rodgers signed his latest deal.
"From a team standpoint, you are basically factoring the cost of franchising him in 2020 and 2021, and then you are buying 2022 for $34 million," the exec who proposed the three-year, $100 million extension said, "which by that point is going to be kind of like where Drew Brees is now."
Brees ranks seventh in annual average at $25 million after signing what was seen as a team-friendly deal designed to help New Orleans win a championship this season.
This exec said he did not think the Seahawks would do the four-year, $140 million deal proposed by the agent.
"Wilson is not Rodgers," this exec said. "That is where teams get themselves into trouble. There are very few teams in the NFL that would hold on to their starting quarterback instead of trading for Rodgers if given the chance. Seattle is not one of those teams."
'Open to move' Wilson, and other wild considerations
The 2019 offseason has the potential to be a tumultuous one on the quarterback front. Flacco, Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Eli Manning and Jameis Winston are among veteran starters facing uncertain futures.
Stafford's future in Detroit is another topic of discussion, with some wondering whether the Lions' relatively new leadership might consider trading him for what would presumably be a big draft haul. The Lions will have paid more than $178 million to Stafford for his career through this season, but they still haven't claimed a postseason victory since January 1992.
It's all speculation at this point. As for Wilson? One exec and one agent made passing comments this season about Seattle possibly being open to trading him. Open to an idea doesn't mean pursuing an idea or liking an idea. The very idea seems silly at the moment because Wilson is in his prime and playing very well for a team with no viable alternative.
Much of the Wilson speculation seems to stem from an outside perception that these are uncertain times for Seattle with an ownership change pending and Pete Carroll at the age where retirement is increasingly a consideration.
"Why would they move him?" the agent asked. "They've got him for four years and a $25 million-a-year average right now. After this year, you got him for three years at a little more, but he is not that expensive for you."
Other important variables to consider
Execs and agents pointed to a few dynamics that could affect negotiations:
Seattle ownership change: Paul Allen's death means the Seahawks could have new ownership soon. That could affect negotiations. For example, the team could decide that re-signing Wilson makes the Seahawks more attractive to potential buyers. Or the team could decide to let the next owners do the deal and pay the huge signing bonus. The team might not care either way. We don't know yet.
Pending CBA expiration: The current labor agreement runs through the 2020 season. Teams and players will need to prepare for a lockout. They must consider what changes might come with a new agreement.
Wilson's representation: Wilson's agent, Mark Rodgers, primarily represents baseball players. Baseball players get fully guaranteed deals. Cousins got a fully guaranteed deal after hitting the open market, while Wilson would be negotiating an extension. Agents negotiating top quarterback deals could feel pressure to set a precedent. An agent predicted Wilson would seek a fully guaranteed four-year deal and that a "standoff" would result.
Other QBs also in line: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott become eligible for new deals this offseason. Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Tom Brady have deals through 2019, same as Wilson. If those players sign deals before Wilson does, the market could shift again. "Yes," an agent said, "but Russell will be shooting for No. 1 regardless."